A lot of people have been saying that there is a chance of Black Panther outgrossing Infinity War (which is personally ridiculous IMO). So here's a poll to see where people are swinging.

I am thinking
$600m total for IW and
$425m total for BO

so I am the last range $160m or higher.

Where do you think both will end up ?

Poll runs till 30 days.

BP- 425
IW- 475

With an expected $200m+ OW that would be a disastrous total for IW.

IW will outgross BP $160m or higher

I think it does just a bit better than Ultron.

But IW's opening will also be bigger than Ultron so I don't see how a bit better leads to sub-$500m total.

Ultron made 458. 475 is a bit better.

I was talking about bigger opening and thus a bigger total with a slightly better multiplier.

Black Panther by 80-160 mil!

IW will outgross BP $40m-$80m

These films are not in competition. Whatever BP grosses, it will only strengthen IW's box office potential.

I agree with this, but just for the sake of the poll IW will outgross BP $80m-$160m.

I'm expecting IW to make about 100-150m more than BP.

Me too as mentioned in my first post. The poll results clearly state that there are people who think otherwise.

10 years of MCU (IW) vs a culture phenomenon (BP)
It's going to be a lot closer than people think

Whatever the results may be its going to be a HUGE year for Marvel/Disney regardless. I can see both IW and BP combining for close to a billion domestically alone. Obviously, when you add in Ant-Man and the Wasp they'll get there anyways, but it must said be said that they have really worked hard for this kind of success.

IW 490M
BP 320M

I still don't think IW is going sub-$500m

Of course not it’s OW will top 200m. It’s guaranteed 500m minimum

Civil War had a sub 2.3 multiplier. And people are being duped into thinking this is the last one. But actually having a villain may help. Don't be surprised if it has a < 2.5 multiplier.

True but this is so much bigger than even CW. To me if it doesn’t top 500m it’ll be the biggest disappointment of the year.

I believe Infinity War actually has a shot at topping TFA's opening weekend record due to Disney marketing it as the big climax of the MCU. It will almost certainly have a multiplier below 2.5, but don't be surprised if it pulls a $240+ million opening weekend. Having one of the most hyped MCU films ever right before it will help. Wonder Woman could have help Justice League much because too much damage has been done before, but coming off a series of very well-received Marvel films, Infinity War is in a perfect position. Audiences loved the last Thor, they loved the new Spidey, they will love Black Panther and they have always loved Guardians of the Galaxy. The first Avengers has offered something unique until then and somehow Disney manages to make it feel like Infinity War is offering something unique again. Age of Ultron did not have that feeling.

The Avengers' opening adjusts to $234.5 million. I don't see why it cannot at least go that high. The buzz will be there. It will, hpwever, have FAR bigger competition in the following weeks than The Avengers. Even a $250 million opening won't guarantee a $600+ million total. I can see it dropping 58-60% in its second AND third weekend. Deadpool 2 is not opening to less than $120 million and even with its R-rating, it will be major competition.

Always great to have your input Dr. Lecter and I agree with everything you just said. I believe IW definitely has a shot at breaking TFA's OW record even though I wouldn't say I'd put money on it. Coming off of BP and having all the heavy hitters of the MCU in one film is what's going to cause that one to EXPLODE out the gate, but legs are a whole other issue. Reviews could be amazing like they were for CW, and it still night not change much in terms of front loading. It doesn't help that Deadpool 2 just moved into the back half of May either along with Solo.

I don't think anything is making up for the original Avengers novelty factor and since then a lot more people have gotten cynical about how MCU just makes the same movie over and over again. While IW is marketed as the big fight, do people really care about the Thanos storyline? Is it a more appealing concept than the drama of Avengers fighting each other in Civil War?

I also think at some point it matters that these films are so old that some of its audience doesn't even remember when the first ones came out. Everyone fell in love with the Iron Man character after the first movie, but does a 16 year old have the same attachment when he was 6 when it came out?

I mean its kind of hard to tell what general audiences are tired of when the last three MCU films all over performed domestically and were massive $850M+ grossers WW. Black Panther will also join that list, so there definitely doesn't seem to be any slowing down for Marvel anytime soon no matter how samey or formulaic the movies are. Also, I still stand by the fact that CW was not really an Avengers film which is why it performed the way it did.

It was very much Captain America's movie with Bucky and Tony being the only other main focuses, and some of the other Avengers making extended cameos like in that Airport scene, but that was about it. I'd say IW definitely has more appeal than that, especially with the Guardians involved along with Spider-Man and Black Panther and even Doctor Strange somewhat. If anything was going to top the novelty of the first Avengers its going to be this movie IMO.