A $240m guarantees $500m total for IW.

LOL, it is downright silly to speak of people turning cynical over Marvel's films, considering they have just had three $310+ million domestic grossers in a row and are now looking at a $400+ million success.

Audiences really love Guardians of the Galaxy and I am talking about audiences that are not all that partial to the rest of the MCU. Bringing them in will be a great deal. Also, if Disney puts Black Panther more in the spotlight it will help too after the gigantic success of Black Panther.

Audiences are currently being "duped" into thinking that Infinity War is the big finale. That's why I believe Avengers 4 will almost inevitably decline, similar to Age of Ultron. But Infinity War is an event. A major, major event. The Super Bowl spot was the one with the biggest buzz of all, despite barely showing new footage.

Also, you are looking at the age thing from a wrong angle. There is an entire generation now that grew up with these films.

The film will also inevitably be more frontloaded than the first Avengers. It won't get to its adjusted $700 million total. But it might very well beat its adjusted opening.

Despite being the sixth Spider-Man film in 15 years and one of six big live-action comic book adaptations last year, Spider-Man: Homecoming still somehow managed to gross over $330 million, even though TASM films have clearly shown that Spider-Man himself is not that big of an attraction anymore. MCU is the attraction here.

I can see IW topping The Last Jedi OW but not TFA’s. Maybe when we get 2nd full trailer in March/April & the hype increases 10 fold with tracking to back it up. Maybe then it’ll have a shot. As of now, nope.

Remember TFA broke online ticket websites 3 months before release.
Let’s see if IW can do the same.

I don't think Spiderman: Homecoming 330 mil was really an oveperformance for an A list superhero + MCU. Thor: Ragnorak's was very impressive though. Either way we're still just talking about 300 mil films here, MCU can create 300 mil films in their sleep, going for 600+ for IW is different

Age of Ultron adjusted is 204 mil OW, 491 total. That seems like a pretty reasonable over/under for me. Ultron as the first sequel had a lot going for it and No Strings was quality marketing.

Given how the recent two Spider-Man films have performed, Homecoming did very well.

Also, we are looking at a $400+ million solo grosser with Black Panther now.

Ultron had good marketing, but absolutely no novelty factor.

Infinity War is the culmination of 10 years of MCU buildup.

It will get close to the first Avengers film in total gross. The big question is if the legs will be cut short due to some fan's disappointment that the film will not close off the current phase of the MCU and that another final film is a year away.

Still - the fanbase will actually grow further because of Black Panther. That can only help.

Honestly, the only way I could see Infinity War pissing people off is if they pull some Force Awakens bullshit and it ends on some lame cliffhanger. I don't think that will happen though, because the Russo's have said plenty of times that it and Avengers 4 are completely standalone and different films.

Yeah I agree. I'm actually keen to see what they do with the fourth film and if it can really be standalone.

Agreed that the reception and ending will impact IW's legs but it's almost guaranteed a $500m total.

If IW doesn't beat TFA's OW then that record will remain unbeaten for a few more years to come (until inflation makes it significantly easier).

Shack - Yes, I think the MCU remains the biggest 4 quadrant franchise out there besides Star Wars. Still relevant despite being 10 years old now. We see that in the massive returns from GoTG, Thor 3 for goodness sake, BP. As Lecter mentioned, the Avengers franchise has gotten its 'epic mojo' back again. We see that in the marketing and the responses to it. This is THE event film of the summer and it has nothing to do with Thanos.

I wonder what sort of opening weekend Infinity War will need to beat Black Panther's total. Because its legs will not be great, I think. Cannot see a better multiplier than 2.6 and even that is probably reaching. It could top $250 million in three days and still miss BP's total.

Welp at this point unless BP has a unprecedented crazy drop Infinity war will not beat it which is just insane!

I think IW will open to 230m & finish out with around 630m. Giving it 2.73IM

It’ll be very close between BP & IW total gross. I need to wait & see BP’s 2nd weekend to choose a side. lol

Sticking with my vote for BP by 80-160... unless it beats it by more than 160

It's going to beat IW by like 200 million

Still sticking to this for now.

Okay, I no longer believe Infinity War will get this. The best multiplier I can see it having is 2.6 and even with a $250 million opening it would not be enough to top Black Panther. Don't see Infinity War opening to $255+ million just yet.

What if IW is sooo good like A+ & 99% RT good and it gets 3.0IM with 230m+ OW. That would be enough to beat BP. lol

If Infinity War grosses less than Black Panther, it will certainly be a conundrum as to how.

Yeah momentum has certainly shifted in Black Panther's favour now. Its a tough ask for Infinity War now.

For Infinity War to beat BP, it will require a number of things to fall into place:

1. A fair chunk of the new MCU fans that made BP a hit to follow Black Panther to IW
2. A record or near record OW
3. Great reviews
4. Great crowd pleasing movie (A or A+ cinemascore)
5. Dupe enough moviegoers into thinking its only one film (and not another to follow a year later) or at least get them to not care that this isn't the last.

Black Panther is definitely gonna win this now. Possibly by $100m! Unreal.

Yeah I've pretty much accepted BP winning this. I don't see IW getting to $650M let alone $700M even if everything possible went right for it. There is just too competition when IW comes out with Deadpool 2, Solo, Jurassic World 2 and Incredibles 2, and I definitely don't see it having a second weekend drop below 50%.

IW is definitely not crossing BP at the later's current pace. And it is looking likely that BP will be bigger by $100m+

I wouldn't underestimate the effect of this being the culmination of ten years of MCU films. It could break the opening weekend record. In fact, isn't it poised to? or at least get damn close?

I see people keep saying this - but do you think it's clear to general audiences that it's the "last" movie (which I don't think it even technically is)? It'll definitely be big - but it just seems more like Avengers 4 than a final chapter and the last time to see all of these characters together.