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| The Greatest Showman: What the fuck went right? http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=83896 |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | The Greatest Showman: What the fuck went right? |
This is quickly transforming into the leggiest non-platform release since Titanic, completely defying all the rules of gravity - five weekends in and it has yet to have a sub-10% drop. So where will its final total end up? Poll will run until next Friday... |
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| Author: | bl1222 [ Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Greatest Showman: What the hell does this finish? |
$150-160m but anything else is gravy. Also, Jonathan, can you list what went right for it? |
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| Author: | Rev [ Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Greatest Showman: What the hell does this finish? |
Under 150m apparently people love musicals lol |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Greatest Showman: What the hell does this finish? |
bl1222 wrote: $150-160m but anything else is gravy. Also, Jonathan, can you list what went right for it? Good point, I'll just make this a WWR thread. 1) WOM 2) WOM 3) It's an honest-to-god four-quadrant film - it has a PG rating which makes it friendly to families, it has Efron and Zandaya which makes it friendly to teens and twenty-somethings, and it's a period musical which makes it friendly to older audiences. It has something for every audience block 4) WOM 5) An extremely catchy soundtrack, which was #1 on the Billboard chart last weekend and will probably become a leggy hit on that chart as well 6) Seriously, you don't have these kind of holds without some insane WOM. Even holier-than-thou critics acknowledge that the film is charming and catchy, and general audiences really dig it. For final total, I'm giving it $170-180 million, but that's with me predicting 15-25% drops the next few weekends, even though competition becomes even lighter next weekend and the weekend after. There is a non-zero chance that this makes over $200 million by the end of its run. |
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| Author: | the lesser evil [ Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:44 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Greatest Showman: What the fuck went right? |
I think it'll end up between 150 and 160 million too, which is just astounding considering what it opened to. Mixed critical reception combined with the heavy competition that comes with the holiday season muted its opening. Audience disagreed with the critics (just look at its RT audience score and IMDB rating compared to the similarly reviewed "The Commuter") and WOM has been driving it ever since. |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:46 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Greatest Showman: What the fuck went right? |
The music is resonating with audiences. I wish I liked the movie more but it's good for musicals in general. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Greatest Showman: What the fuck went right? |
Its a great musical (even though not a good movie) and that's resonating with the audience. Needless to say the WoM is insane and I think people wanted to see Hugh Jackman in a light and fun musical (not Les Miserables, which he was great btw) and that along with WoM has helped people come on the fence come see it as well. As for its total the competition ahead isn't big so I think it can do $180m with $200m not out of reach. |
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| Author: | KC [ Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Greatest Showman: What the fuck went right? |
People are coming back time and time again because it is uplifting emotional movie that makes you feel good walking of. Also they are going to sing along with the songs. I wouldn't be shocked if there is a sing a long version ala Frozen released in the theaters. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Greatest Showman: What the fuck went right? |
KC wrote: People are coming back time and time again because it is uplifting emotional movie that makes you feel good walking of. Also they are going to sing along with the songs. I wouldn't be shocked if there is a sing a long version ala Frozen released in the theaters. There is already a sing along version. Yeah the film is just so joyous and happy and makes you feel good. And the soundtrack is just so catchy! I can’t stop listening to it! |
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| Author: | trixie [ Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:52 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Greatest Showman: What the fuck went right? |
The music is resonating with audiences,a and its family friendly. That's probably the main reason and it's original. We still have a few original films that break out every once in awhile between the remakes and sequels. |
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| Author: | O [ Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:46 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Greatest Showman: What the fuck went right? |
This holiday season gave me a bit of movie hope. Leggy movie runs can still happen. Formulaic franchises moving into the distance. TGS is starting to show some signs of MBFGW. Award season still has a ways to go. |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Greatest Showman: What the fuck went right? |
Only one tech nomination at the Oscars, and this is still gonna have a better hold than The Post or Phantom Thread - possibly another sub-10% drop. It has one more competition-free weekend before two busy weekends of major openers, but I imagine theaters will still want to keep it around for Valentine's Day and Presidents Day weekend, especially since they'll be making a solid amount of money off of it. DVDReleaseDates.com has its release date currently set as March 6, which is just outrageous, but hopefully Fox pushes it back at least a few weeks. Still feeling good about $170-180 million range right now - it needs "just" a 5.6 multiplier from this weekend to reach it. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Greatest Showman: What the fuck went right? |
Yeah I was wondering when it will be released to home media. Hopefully Fox week push it's date a little further because it will still be making money by March |
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| Author: | bl1222 [ Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:43 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Greatest Showman: What the fuck went right? |
Jonathan wrote: Only one tech nomination at the Oscars, and this is still gonna have a better hold than The Post or Phantom Thread - possibly another sub-10% drop. It has one more competition-free weekend before two busy weekends of major openers, but I imagine theaters will still want to keep it around for Valentine's Day and Presidents Day weekend, especially since they'll be making a solid amount of money off of it. DVDReleaseDates.com has its release date currently set as March 6, which is just outrageous, but hopefully Fox pushes it back at least a few weeks. Still feeling good about $170-180 million range right now - it needs "just" a 5.6 multiplier from this weekend to reach it. Although that website is most of the time reliable, VideoEta and Blu-Ray.com still have it as TBD. I think with its surprising success, I think it will be delayed a couple of weeks. After all, FOX confirmed that Ferdinand will be releasing on March 13. I hope that's an indicator that its DVD release date will be delayed. |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Sat Feb 10, 2018 1:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Greatest Showman: What the fuck went right? |
It looks like the home media release date is no longer set, so this should still have gas in the tank as long as theaters want to keep it. Assuming a weekend gross of $6 million, it needs a 3.32 multiplier from this weekend for a $160 million gross, a 4.98 multiplier for $170 million, and a 6.65 multiplier for $180 million. Maintaining its monster legs in the face of several new movies will be tough, but with Valentine's Day and Presidents Day around the corner I think those will be enough to get it past at least $170 million. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Sat Feb 10, 2018 3:42 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Greatest Showman: What the fuck went right? |
That's a relief with the DVD release date. I wonder how it will be impacted next weekend in face of BP. Both are "technically" now from Disney but BP will take away a big chunk of families from TGS. I was thinking $200m as a possibility before but the last two weekends brought that down a bit. I think it can still manage $180m total. Also this will be its 7th weekend inside Top 5. With BP coming up next weekend it will be interesting where this lands because I can see it getting past Jumanji with a better hold though the three openers this weekend and next weekend will surely make it fall outside Top 5. There could be a case where 15:17 falls really hard and Samson/Early Man fail to meet $5m mark in which case TGS will have to top Jumanji to enter Top 5. |
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| Author: | KC [ Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Greatest Showman: What the fuck went right? |
My wife and kids have seen the movie 4 times. They just love the music. They bought the soundtrack and I hear it everywhere I go. It's like Frozen Deja Vu all over again only this time the movie is great. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:25 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Greatest Showman: What the fuck went right? |
I agree with Magnus the music is good and it's enjoyable movie overall but it's baffling to think that this movie is showing these kind of legs. |
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| Author: | BK [ Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:52 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Greatest Showman: What the fuck went right? |
It's a bloody good feel-good film. Almost can't believe that WOM got it this far in this day and age. Probably down to debuting over Christmas and it having original music that's good. |
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| Author: | Rev [ Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:53 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Greatest Showman: What the fuck went right? |
The music obviously |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Thu Feb 15, 2018 12:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Greatest Showman: What the fuck went right? |
Nah it's just not the music. I believe it is connecting to millennials who generally don't see musicals in theaters. Plus of course the older audience. |
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| Author: | Rolling Thunder [ Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:53 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Greatest Showman: What the fuck went right? |
Logic dictates that TGS will see its first drop over 20% this weekend. Then again, the film has defied logic at every turn. |
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| Author: | Barrabás [ Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:03 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Greatest Showman: What the fuck went right? |
Hollywood finally made something old people feel the need to get out of the house for. |
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| Author: | Rev [ Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:17 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Greatest Showman: What the fuck went right? |
Jack Sparrow wrote: Nah it's just not the music. I believe it is connecting to millennials who generally don't see musicals in theaters. Plus of course the older audience. Because of the music 98%, 1% Hugh Jackman, .5% Zendaya, .5% Zack |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Greatest Showman: What the fuck went right? |
Rolling Thunder wrote: Logic dictates that TGS will see its first drop over 20% this weekend. Then again, the film has defied logic at every turn. I mean, the holiday could end up negating any harsh effect from Black Panther. This seems to be in Frozen territory, where it just keeps chugging along no matter the theatrical obstacles. |
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