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 January 26-28 Predictions 

Will Maze Runner hit 25m OW?
Yes 27%  27%  [ 3 ]
No 73%  73%  [ 8 ]
Total votes : 11

 January 26-28 Predictions 
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Post January 26-28 Predictions
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The Death Cure- 24
Hostiles- 6


Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:59 pm
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Post Re: January 26-28 Predictions
I get the tagline for Death Cure, but perhaps a lot of people won't (probably why they put the WCKD building on the poster), and it just looks incredibly tacky trying to appear young and cool.


Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:13 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: January 26-28 Predictions
Hostiles is just releasing in States. I somehow thought it was released/dumped in first week of December.


Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:01 pm
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Wallflower
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Post Re: January 26-28 Predictions
I swear I've seen more advertising for Hostiles than any recent movie. Countless TV ads. I think it can do solid business in wide release.


Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:16 pm
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Post Re: January 26-28 Predictions
Maze Runner: The Death Cure - 25


Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:35 pm
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Post Re: January 26-28 Predictions
Dil wrote:
Maze Runner: The Death Cure - 25


Anything on Hostiles?


Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:36 pm
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Post Re: January 26-28 Predictions
bl1222 wrote:
Dil wrote:
Maze Runner: The Death Cure - 25


Anything on Hostiles?


No idea on that one, but I heard its been doing badly in limited release, so I'm not expecting much. Also, is it really getting released in over 3000 theaters next weekend? I saw that on BOM and it kind of stunned me, because I have literally seen no advertisement for it. Even with Christian Bale as the main star and the big draw that is no guarantee its going to do well.


Sun Jan 21, 2018 3:09 pm
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Post Re: January 26-28 Predictions
Will the Maze Runner series play out similarly to the Divergent series? Both of their 2nd entries were very similar - completely unremarkable.

Divergent - $151 million
The Divergent Series: Insurgent - $130 million (-14%)
The Divergent Series: Allegiant - $66 million (-49%)

The Maze Runner - $102 million
Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials - $82 million (-20%)

Arguments for Maze Runner dropping less than Allegiant did from Insurgent:
-Allegiant had a much higher gross to fall from ($130 million vs. $82 million).
-People got overloaded by Divergent since they all released one year after the next.

Arguments for Maze Runner dropping more than Allegiant did from Insurgent:
-This series seems to be falling faster percentage-wise.
-A long 3 year gap for The Death Cure makes even less people to remember this series and less likely to return.


I'm guessing an $18 million opening for a $45 million finish.


Sun Jan 21, 2018 3:46 pm
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Post Re: January 26-28 Predictions
Hostiles ads:

“This is a truly gripping Western. A WEstern for people who love WESterns. Christian Bale brings this WESTern to life. A WESTErn for the modern age. The best WESTERn since Unforgiven. Except for the WESTERN that was nominated for Best Picture last year. And evey other annual WESTERN that is the best WESTERN since Unforgiven.

WESTERN!”


Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:02 pm
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The Kramer
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Post Re: January 26-28 Predictions
Also, I’d be impressed if Maze Runner hits $20m. YA franchises aren’t over anymore.


Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:08 pm
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Post Re: January 26-28 Predictions
I am rooting for Hostiles. Looks really good.


Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:56 pm
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Post Re: January 26-28 Predictions
The third Maze Runner is such an odd-feeling release. I know its belated arrival is chiefly for reasons beyond anyone's control (the lead actor's on-set injury), but still. The whole, "Young-heartthrob rebel alliance versus an evil, Orwellian government? Franchise!" impulse is entirely dormant, at least for now, and then there is three-year gap between this and a quickly produced sequel which already showed signs of slowing down.

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Last edited by David on Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:50 am, edited 1 time in total.



Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:57 pm
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Post Re: January 26-28 Predictions
Maze Runner doesn't seem like it will do good this release. Its a little too late for the sequel specially with the second one being meh in terms of critical and audience reception.


Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:28 am
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Post Re: January 26-28 Predictions
As mediocre as the last movie was I still think that enough fans in the under 25 crowd will show up and push it past $20M. Buzz is pretty much non existent, but I would also say the same about Insidious: Chapter 4 and that still opened close to $30M. Granted, I understand that horror always seems to do well in January anyways, but there isn't much else out that is aimed specifically at that demo outside of stuff they have probably already seen.


Mon Jan 22, 2018 2:37 am
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Post Re: January 26-28 Predictions
While that's true I just don't think it will generate enough interest specially with many options for under 25 crowd (I am talking Jumanji, Den of Thieves, even TGS to some extent) and the same crowd has been very picky these days.

It could break $20m but the chances of that feel very slim at this point. The muted marketing is also to blame here.


Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:44 am
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Post Re: January 26-28 Predictions
Maze Runner will do at least $25m. It's the final movie.

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Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:47 am
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Post Re: January 26-28 Predictions
Yeah, but if they had just scrapped it like Divergent would anyone care? I’m guessing no.


Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:06 pm
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Post Re: January 26-28 Predictions
uh the last Maze Runner made 312m on a 61m budget and the first one 348m on a 34m budget. It's has been a massively financially successful franchise and that's why the third was made


with a reported 83m budget and solid overseas openings so far, looks like Part 3 will make money as well. This is not Divergent at all


Mon Jan 22, 2018 5:57 pm
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Post Re: January 26-28 Predictions
Still a $20-25m OW and total around $50-$60m wouldn't be too shabby.

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Mon Jan 22, 2018 6:01 pm
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Post Re: January 26-28 Predictions
1. MAZE RUNNER: THE DEATH CURE - 24.65 MILLION (New)
2. JUMANJI: WELCOME TO THE JUNGLE - 14.4 MILLION (-26%)
3. THE POST - 10.4 MILLION (-11%)
4. HOSTILES - 9.768 MILLION
5. THE GREATEST SHOWMAN - 9.5 MILLION
(-10.7%)
6. 12 STRONG - 8.698 MILLION (-45%)
7. DEN OF THIEVES - 7.298 MILLION (-52%)
8. PADDINGTON 2 - 6.167 MILLION (-23%)
9. THE SHAPE OF WATER - N/A (Will wait for theater count. Should see a big expansion to 2,000+ after Oscar nominations.)
10. STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI - 4.3 MILLION (-34%)
11. THE COMMUTER - 3.5 MILLION (-47%)
12. FOREVER MY GIRL - 3.14 MILLION (-26%)
13. INSIDIOUS: THE LAST KEY - 2.7 MILLION (-54%)
14. I, TONYA - 2.63 MILLION (-8%)


Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:25 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: January 26-28 Predictions
Surprised that many think this will top $20m so easily but maybe its the not-in-US thing.


Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:39 pm
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Post Re: January 26-28 Predictions
I still think it's hilarious that they call them Maze Runner movies when there's no maze. That was about the only interesting thing about the first movie.

Hunger Games got away with it, I guess.


Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:44 pm
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Post Re: January 26-28 Predictions
Jack Sparrow wrote:
Surprised that many think this will top $20m so easily but maybe its the not-in-US thing.


I can't see how it fails to do so. Maybe with a more competitive date it would miss out but I think anchoring its own weekend in January and being one of the only big releases of the month certainly helps. Plus there aren't many movies for teens right now. Only Jumanji which most have seen already and Insidious, which is mostly old news. There's also Greatest Showman which is appealing to everyone but it too has been out a while. Time for something new to excite this demo.


Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:51 pm
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Post Re: January 26-28 Predictions
MGKC wrote:
I still think it's hilarious that they call them Maze Runner movies when there's no maze. That was about the only interesting thing about the first movie.

Hunger Games got away with it, I guess.


I think in the third book they go back to the maze, but yeah the second one had no maze.


Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:31 am
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Post Re: January 26-28 Predictions
Magic Mike wrote:
Jack Sparrow wrote:
Surprised that many think this will top $20m so easily but maybe its the not-in-US thing.


I can't see how it fails to do so. Maybe with a more competitive date it would miss out but I think anchoring its own weekend in January and being one of the only big releases of the month certainly helps. Plus there aren't many movies for teens right now. Only Jumanji which most have seen already and Insidious, which is mostly old news. There's also Greatest Showman which is appealing to everyone but it too has been out a while. Time for something new to excite this demo.


Yes on paper it should cross but the market is quite dense for January, almost all movies are currently seeing good runs. Also I just feel the marketing is unusually muted on this and that time for this series has already passed. I wouldn't be surprised by $20m but I think there is good chance it opens close to that mark with $18m-$19m.


Tue Jan 23, 2018 2:06 am
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