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4 day MLK weekend estimates
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=83878		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  mark66 [ Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:06 pm ]
Post subject:  4 day MLK weekend estimates
1 1 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Sony $35,425,000 -4.9% 3,849 +48 $9,204 $291,560,909 $90 4
2 15 The Post Fox $23,400,000 +1,278.1% 2,819 +2,783 $8,301 $27,889,237 $50 4
3 N The Commuter LGF $16,375,000 - 2,892 - $5,662 $16,375,000 - 1
4 4 The Greatest Showman Fox $15,600,000 +13.3% 2,938 -404 $5,310 $98,353,868 $84 4
5 3 Star Wars: The Last Jedi BV $15,282,000 -35.6% 3,090 -1,142 $4,946 $595,556,584 - 5
6 N Paddington 2 WB $15,000,000 - 3,702 - $4,052 $15,000,000 - 1
7 2 Insidious: The Last Key Uni. $14,610,000 -50.6% 3,150 +34 $4,638 $50,849,140 $10 2
8 N Proud Mary SGem $12,000,000 - 2,125 - $5,647 $12,000,000 $14 1
9 5 Pitch Perfect 3 Uni. $7,265,000 -29.5% 2,505 -953 $2,900 $96,261,225 $45 4
10 8 Darkest Hour Focus $5,585,000 -7.7% 1,693 -40 $3,299 $36,801,552 - 8
11 6 Ferdinand Fox $5,000,000 -35.0% 2,154 -1,002 $2,321 $77,028,094 $111 5
12 7 Molly's Game STX $4,750,000 -30.7% 1,708 +100 $2,781 $21,580,167 - 3
13 9 Coco BV $4,673,000 -13.2% 1,362 -532 $3,431 $198,216,440 - 8
14 12 I, Tonya Neon $4,211,478 +72.2% 517 +261 $8,146 $10,910,294 - 6
15 11 The Shape of Water FoxS $3,600,000 +14.7% 723 -81 $4,979 $27,321,892 - 7
16 20 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri FoxS $3,200,000 +353.8% 1,022 +712 $3,131 $29,408,459 - 10
17 16 Lady Bird A24 $2,026,719 +28.9% 652 +90 $3,108 $37,242,928 - 11
18 13 Wonder LGF $1,705,000 -28.4% 970 -288 $1,758 $129,093,574 - 9
19 10 All the Money in the World TriS $1,500,000 -58.0% 1,408 -715 $1,065 $23,326,060 - 3
20 28 Phantom Thread Focus $1,425,000 +493.2% 62 +56 $22,984 $2,503,778 -

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/ch ... knd=02a&p=
Author:  mark66 [ Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 4 day MLK weekend estimates
Almost all movies were underestimated, including JUMANJI which went from $27m to $28.1m 3 day estimate...
Author:  Jonathan [ Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 4 day MLK weekend estimates
And The Greatest Showman moved up to #4 from estimates, and had another sub-10% drop. What was the last wide release to have TWO sub-10% drops in a row? Three if you count its 76% second weekend increase...
Author:  i.hope [ Mon Jan 15, 2018 3:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 4 day MLK weekend estimates
Its OW was so small it gave a lot of room for small drops or even increases. That happened because of the packed competition during the holidays. Still, TGS is a WOM hit with stellar holds.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Mon Jan 15, 2018 3:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 4 day MLK weekend estimates
TGS is a beast!
Author:  Jonathan [ Mon Jan 15, 2018 4:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 4 day MLK weekend estimates
i.hope wrote:
Its OW was so small it gave a lot of room for small drops or even increases. That happened because of the packed competition during the holidays. Still, TGS is a WOM hit with stellar holds.


We've had movies with small openings during the holidays that then recovered, but after the holidays they drop off like normal. Literally nothing is normal about the last two weekend drops for The Greatest Showman. I think it's now more likely than not that its fifth weekend (next weekend) is still larger than its opening weekend. That is some 1980s box office shit right there.

We also shouldn't disregard how cray Jumanji's legs have been either. Consider the fact that Sing's 7-day total ($93.1 million) was bigger than Jumanji's 7-day-plus-Dec. 8-screenings total ($89 million), but Jumanji just surpassed the final total of Sing in 25 days, with at least another $80 million left in the tank from there.
Author:  i.hope [ Mon Jan 15, 2018 4:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 4 day MLK weekend estimates
Jonathan wrote:
i.hope wrote:
Its OW was so small it gave a lot of room for small drops or even increases. That happened because of the packed competition during the holidays. Still, TGS is a WOM hit with stellar holds.


We've had movies with small openings during the holidays that then recovered, but after the holidays they drop off like normal. Literally nothing is normal about the last two weekend drops for The Greatest Showman. I think it's now more likely than not that its fifth weekend (next weekend) is still larger than its opening weekend. That is some 1980s box office shit right there.



Because WOM is on its side. The Shape of Water had a similar drop % the last two weekends with a near-constant theater count. TGS's OW was so much deflated by the competition.
Author:  the lesser evil [ Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 4 day MLK weekend estimates
TGS has been in 4th place for 4 weeks now. I kind of hope it stays there again next week, simply because it would amuse me.
Author:  thompsoncory [ Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 4 day MLK weekend estimates
The Greatest Showman's run is insane. It's going to be fascinating to see where it ends up. I'm so happy for it if it means more original movie musicals. I also think the cast and the addicting soundtrack are contributing too in the same way it helped Frozen - the songs are just so good.
Author:  zwackerm [ Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 4 day MLK weekend estimates
thompsoncory wrote:
The Greatest Showman's run is insane. It's going to be fascinating to see where it ends up. I'm so happy for it if it means more original movie musicals. I also think the cast and the addicting soundtrack are contributing too in the same way it helped Frozen - the songs are just so good.

Definitely think the soundtrack is helping. People want to hear the music loud and see the big numbers on the big screen.
Author:  Jonathan [ Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 4 day MLK weekend estimates
i.hope wrote:
Jonathan wrote:
i.hope wrote:
Its OW was so small it gave a lot of room for small drops or even increases. That happened because of the packed competition during the holidays. Still, TGS is a WOM hit with stellar holds.


We've had movies with small openings during the holidays that then recovered, but after the holidays they drop off like normal. Literally nothing is normal about the last two weekend drops for The Greatest Showman. I think it's now more likely than not that its fifth weekend (next weekend) is still larger than its opening weekend. That is some 1980s box office shit right there.



Because WOM is on its side. The Shape of Water had a similar drop % the last two weekends with a near-constant theater count. TGS's OW was so much deflated by the competition.


Slow-expanding Oscar contenders are a completely different beast from a super-saturated wide release like The Greatest Showman. Films that immediately open in over 3,000 theaters just aren't suppose to have the holds that The Greatest Showman is having.
Author:  i.hope [ Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 4 day MLK weekend estimates
Jonathan wrote:
i.hope wrote:
Jonathan wrote:
i.hope wrote:
Its OW was so small it gave a lot of room for small drops or even increases. That happened because of the packed competition during the holidays. Still, TGS is a WOM hit with stellar holds.


We've had movies with small openings during the holidays that then recovered, but after the holidays they drop off like normal. Literally nothing is normal about the last two weekend drops for The Greatest Showman. I think it's now more likely than not that its fifth weekend (next weekend) is still larger than its opening weekend. That is some 1980s box office shit right there.



Because WOM is on its side. The Shape of Water had a similar drop % the last two weekends with a near-constant theater count. TGS's OW was so much deflated by the competition.


Slow-expanding Oscar contenders are a completely different beast from a super-saturated wide release like The Greatest Showman. Films that immediately open in over 3,000 theaters just aren't suppose to have the holds that The Greatest Showman is having.


The Shape of Water's theater count has stayed the same at ~750 since Christmas.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=theshapeofwater.htm

TGS' run has so far been impressive. But together with and more so than Jumanji, its OW was deflated by the crowded competition.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Mon Jan 15, 2018 9:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 4 day MLK weekend estimates
i.hope I disagree. There are movies with great WoM that recover in December but then fizzle out after holidays. Specially movies like TGS which have not much awards buzz and are better suited for Christmas atmosphere. TGS is definitely defying expectations. The recovery after its OD and OW is just unbelievable. I really couldn't think of any wide release that opened so low and went on to make $150m even in December.

The Shape of Water is not a wider release yet and its easy for these movies to find audience specially with Awards buzz and great WoM.

Ofcourse Jumanji and TSoW are doing amazing as well with great WoM but TGS is the kind of movie that should have been lost in the shuffle. If it even did 20% drops it wouldn't have been as special but these drops are just amazing in this market.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:45 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 4 day MLK weekend estimates
Amazing is a bit of a stretch for The Shape of Water. It's doing kind of underwhelming really. We will see where it gets total wise.
Author:  redfirebird2008 [ Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 4 day MLK weekend estimates
Jonathan wrote:
i.hope wrote:
Its OW was so small it gave a lot of room for small drops or even increases. That happened because of the packed competition during the holidays. Still, TGS is a WOM hit with stellar holds.


We've had movies with small openings during the holidays that then recovered, but after the holidays they drop off like normal. Literally nothing is normal about the last two weekend drops for The Greatest Showman. I think it's now more likely than not that its fifth weekend (next weekend) is still larger than its opening weekend. That is some 1980s box office shit right there.

We also shouldn't disregard how cray Jumanji's legs have been either. Consider the fact that Sing's 7-day total ($93.1 million) was bigger than Jumanji's 7-day-plus-Dec. 8-screenings total ($89 million), but Jumanji just surpassed the final total of Sing in 25 days, with at least another $80 million left in the tank from there.


Amazing stuff from both movies. Very good analysis too Jonathan. :thumbsup:
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 4 day MLK weekend estimates
Magic Mike wrote:
Amazing is a bit of a stretch for The Shape of Water. It's doing kind of underwhelming really. We will see where it gets total wise.


Well it's still in less theaters. I think you were expecting too much from it. Del Toro is not a household name as of now add the creature still looks weird in trailers. I agree it's not amazing run thus far, though I hope it could turn into one soon.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 4 day MLK weekend estimates
Paddington 2 did well all things considered. I think/hope it can have better legs than the original due to smaller opening. Even with that though I think $50m is the best it will do with this opening.
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