Geostorm- 14
Only the Brave- 8
Same Kind of Different As Me- 2
The Snowman- 11
Boo 2 A Madea Halloween- 19

A lot of disappointments. I'm not sold Boo 2 will repeat the success of the first.

Madea is getting a strong push, I definitely see $20m+ especially with HDD not breaking out this weekend.

Only The Brave has polled quite well here, though I'm cautiously optimistic. One never knows if the spike in patriotism in light of recent events will translate to OW.

Boo will of course do the best though I don't think it will do nearly as well as the first. A lot of people saw that who wouldn't normally go to a Madea movie and, despite the great CinemaScore, everyone I know really disliked it. I thought it looked really fun but it was pretty bad. I'll pass on this one.

Geostorm will be the only other one to pull double digits. When the trailer came out I thought The Snowman would do quite well but there's not as much buzz as I expected and now the terrible reviews have come out. If it had good reviews I think it would have cracked double digits. Now it might only do around 7 Million.

Geostorm will do well IMO

Boo 2 - 20
Geostorm - 11
Snowman - 7
Only the Brave - 6

People sometimes need tacky fun. Geostorm is here to provide. It has a reasonably big enough star in Gerard Butler and it looks like a lot of fun (maybe not for victims of the hurricane). I think it can do at least $18m.

Boo 2 - 21
Geostorm - 14
Only The Brave - 12
The Snowman - 5
Same Kind of Different as Me - 3

I don't think/hope Boo will go that high. The first was crap even from Madea standards but I guess there hasn't been movies targeting black audience recently.

Only the Brave has modest sleeper-hit potential, I feel. A Deepwater Horizon-type performance. Of course, I hope it didn't cost 120m the way Deepwater Horizon inexplicably did.

The Snowman is going to perform miserably. Michael Fassbender is a cool, dynamic, handsome actor...and absolutely, decidedly not a draw. Reviews are dreadful, which is an enormous handicap. And it just doesn't seem to have much potential as a hard-R serial-killer drama.

Boo 2! A Madea Halloween - 21 million
Only the Brave - 15
Geostorm - 14
The Snowman - 3
Same Kind of Different as Me - between 1.5 and 2

Don't underestimate the audience for these movies. Outside of Marshall which no one cares for there hasn't been a major urban skewing film in a while. Sure that last movie was a huge pile of shit even for Madea standards, but it's not like that has stopped people from coming out before.

It's a KJ tradition, damn it!

Yep that's why the "hope"

Boo 2! A Madea Halloween - 23 million
Geostorm - 19
Only the Brave - 14
The Snowman - 5


Could be a reasonable weekend.

1. BOO 2! A MADEA HALLOWEEN - 19.941 MILLION (New)
2. GEOSTORM - 14.783 MILLION (New)
3. ONLY THE BRAVE - 12.13 MILLION (New)
4. HAPPY DEATH DAY - 11.196 MILLION (-57%)
5. BLADE RUNNER 2049 - 8.365 MILLION (-46%)
6. THE FOREIGNER - 6.425 MILLION (-51%)
7. THE SNOWMAN - 4.258 MILLION (New)
8. IT - 3.754 MILLION (-38%)
9. KINGSMAN: THE GOLDEN CIRCLE - 3.389 MILLION (-37%)
10. AMERICAN MADE - 3.19 MILLION (-42%)
11. THE MOUNTAIN BETWEEN US - 3.1 MILLION (-46%)
12. LEGO NINJAGO - 2.762 MILLION (-36%)
13. MY LITTLE PONY - 2.343 MILLION (-43%)
14. VICTORIA & ABDUL - 2.254 MILLION (-25%)
15. SAME KIND OF DIFFERENT AS ME - 2 MILLION (New)

I think Madea is being underestimated again. Sure, the last film was dumb but Madea still brings out people. I don't think the fact Boo is a sequel matters one bit.

We'll see. I really think this one will have less interest. It's basically just a re-tread of the last one. It's only natural it will lose some audience. Now I suppose it's possible it has another great opening and just drops faster. The other didn't have terrible legs. This one will likely be more front-loaded.

Some media outlets report Only The Brave tracking at a measly $6m. That feels way too conservative.

None of the movies are on MT yet. I thought Madea might show up sometime tonight.

No previews or critic screenings for Geostorm. Don't get it, the trailer didn't look that bad.

Really? I thought it looked pretty tired.

MT top 5:

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi - 9.5%
2. Blade Runner 2049 - 9.5%
3. Boo! 2 - 7.7%
4. Mersal - 6.1%
5. Only the Brave - 5.4%

Very promising that Only the Brave is showing up already. Should probably finish in the top 3 for the weekend?

Yeah no previews for Geostorm is bizarre.

Not saying it looks great and I'm hearing anecdotal feedback from overseas that it's pretty terrible. But still, it's a disaster pic with a huge budget, kind of glaring to be omitted from previews.

On paper it's a great idea for a Roland Emmerich-style disaster flick, but something about the trailer just fails to give the material the heft it needs. The Day After Tomorrow had a similar weather-based premise and looked and felt like an unmissable epic. This feels like a real shrug.

On Fandango, Madea is selling twice as many tickets as Geostorm is. Only the Brave and The Snowman are wrestling for third place among newcomers.

Based on Fandango and my intuition, my predictions:

Madea - 16
Geostorm - 11
Only the Brave - 9
The Snowman - 7
Same Kind of Different as Me - 3.5

Update:

Another batch on Fandango shows Madea slowing down but still leading, and Geostorm falling behind the others, maybe due to it not having previews tonight.