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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20345 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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October 20-22 Predictions
Geostorm- 14 Only the Brave- 8 Same Kind of Different As Me- 2 The Snowman- 11 Boo 2 A Madea Halloween- 19 A lot of disappointments. I'm not sold Boo 2 will repeat the success of the first.
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Fri Oct 13, 2017 11:17 am |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Re: October 20-22 Predictions
Madea is getting a strong push, I definitely see $20m+ especially with HDD not breaking out this weekend.
Only The Brave has polled quite well here, though I'm cautiously optimistic. One never knows if the spike in patriotism in light of recent events will translate to OW.
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Fri Oct 13, 2017 12:45 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: October 20-22 Predictions
Boo will of course do the best though I don't think it will do nearly as well as the first. A lot of people saw that who wouldn't normally go to a Madea movie and, despite the great CinemaScore, everyone I know really disliked it. I thought it looked really fun but it was pretty bad. I'll pass on this one.
Geostorm will be the only other one to pull double digits. When the trailer came out I thought The Snowman would do quite well but there's not as much buzz as I expected and now the terrible reviews have come out. If it had good reviews I think it would have cracked double digits. Now it might only do around 7 Million.
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Fri Oct 13, 2017 1:49 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: October 20-22 Predictions
Geostorm will do well IMO
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Sat Oct 14, 2017 7:26 am |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18876 Location: San Diego
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Re: October 20-22 Predictions
Boo 2 - 20 Geostorm - 11 Snowman - 7 Only the Brave - 6
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Sat Oct 14, 2017 5:55 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67039
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Re: October 20-22 Predictions
People sometimes need tacky fun. Geostorm is here to provide. It has a reasonably big enough star in Gerard Butler and it looks like a lot of fun (maybe not for victims of the hurricane). I think it can do at least $18m.
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:30 pm |
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Dil
Forum General
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2009 9:48 pm Posts: 8942 Location: Houston, Texas
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Re: October 20-22 Predictions
Boo 2 - 21 Geostorm - 14 Only The Brave - 12 The Snowman - 5 Same Kind of Different as Me - 3
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Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:05 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: October 20-22 Predictions
I don't think/hope Boo will go that high. The first was crap even from Madea standards but I guess there hasn't been movies targeting black audience recently.
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Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:13 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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Re: October 20-22 Predictions
Only the Brave has modest sleeper-hit potential, I feel. A Deepwater Horizon-type performance. Of course, I hope it didn't cost 120m the way Deepwater Horizon inexplicably did.
The Snowman is going to perform miserably. Michael Fassbender is a cool, dynamic, handsome actor...and absolutely, decidedly not a draw. Reviews are dreadful, which is an enormous handicap. And it just doesn't seem to have much potential as a hard-R serial-killer drama.
Boo 2! A Madea Halloween - 21 million Only the Brave - 15 Geostorm - 14 The Snowman - 3 Same Kind of Different as Me - between 1.5 and 2
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:31 pm |
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Dil
Forum General
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2009 9:48 pm Posts: 8942 Location: Houston, Texas
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Re: October 20-22 Predictions
Jack Sparrow wrote: I don't think/hope Boo will go that high. The first was crap even from Madea standards but I guess there hasn't been movies targeting black audience recently. Don't underestimate the audience for these movies. Outside of Marshall which no one cares for there hasn't been a major urban skewing film in a while. Sure that last movie was a huge pile of shit even for Madea standards, but it's not like that has stopped people from coming out before.
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Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:34 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67039
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Re: October 20-22 Predictions
Dil wrote: Jack Sparrow wrote: I don't think/hope Boo will go that high. The first was crap even from Madea standards but I guess there hasn't been movies targeting black audience recently. Don't underestimate the audience for these movies. It's a KJ tradition, damn it!
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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Mon Oct 16, 2017 1:33 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: October 20-22 Predictions
Dil wrote: Jack Sparrow wrote: I don't think/hope Boo will go that high. The first was crap even from Madea standards but I guess there hasn't been movies targeting black audience recently. Don't underestimate the audience for these movies. Outside of Marshall which no one cares for there hasn't been a major urban skewing film in a while. Sure that last movie was a huge pile of shit even for Madea standards, but it's not like that has stopped people from coming out before. Yep that's why the "hope"
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Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:35 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22679 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: October 20-22 Predictions
Boo 2! A Madea Halloween - 23 million Geostorm - 19 Only the Brave - 14 The Snowman - 5
Could be a reasonable weekend.
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Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:58 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: October 20-22 Predictions
1. BOO 2! A MADEA HALLOWEEN - 19.941 MILLION (New) 2. GEOSTORM - 14.783 MILLION (New) 3. ONLY THE BRAVE - 12.13 MILLION (New) 4. HAPPY DEATH DAY - 11.196 MILLION (-57%) 5. BLADE RUNNER 2049 - 8.365 MILLION (-46%) 6. THE FOREIGNER - 6.425 MILLION (-51%) 7. THE SNOWMAN - 4.258 MILLION (New) 8. IT - 3.754 MILLION (-38%) 9. KINGSMAN: THE GOLDEN CIRCLE - 3.389 MILLION (-37%) 10. AMERICAN MADE - 3.19 MILLION (-42%) 11. THE MOUNTAIN BETWEEN US - 3.1 MILLION (-46%) 12. LEGO NINJAGO - 2.762 MILLION (-36%) 13. MY LITTLE PONY - 2.343 MILLION (-43%) 14. VICTORIA & ABDUL - 2.254 MILLION (-25%) 15. SAME KIND OF DIFFERENT AS ME - 2 MILLION (New)
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Tue Oct 17, 2017 1:02 am |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Re: October 20-22 Predictions
I think Madea is being underestimated again. Sure, the last film was dumb but Madea still brings out people. I don't think the fact Boo is a sequel matters one bit.
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Tue Oct 17, 2017 6:27 am |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: October 20-22 Predictions
We'll see. I really think this one will have less interest. It's basically just a re-tread of the last one. It's only natural it will lose some audience. Now I suppose it's possible it has another great opening and just drops faster. The other didn't have terrible legs. This one will likely be more front-loaded.
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Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:30 am |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Re: October 20-22 Predictions
Some media outlets report Only The Brave tracking at a measly $6m. That feels way too conservative.
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Wed Oct 18, 2017 3:22 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: October 20-22 Predictions
None of the movies are on MT yet. I thought Madea might show up sometime tonight.
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Wed Oct 18, 2017 8:13 pm |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Re: October 20-22 Predictions
No previews or critic screenings for Geostorm. Don't get it, the trailer didn't look that bad.
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Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:08 pm |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
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Re: October 20-22 Predictions
Rolling Thunder wrote: No previews or critic screenings for Geostorm. Don't get it, the trailer didn't look that bad. Really? I thought it looked pretty tired. MT top 5: 1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi - 9.5% 2. Blade Runner 2049 - 9.5% 3. Boo! 2 - 7.7% 4. Mersal - 6.1% 5. Only the Brave - 5.4% Very promising that Only the Brave is showing up already. Should probably finish in the top 3 for the weekend?
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Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:54 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: October 20-22 Predictions
Yeah no previews for Geostorm is bizarre.
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Thu Oct 19, 2017 2:14 pm |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Re: October 20-22 Predictions
Jonathan wrote: Rolling Thunder wrote: No previews or critic screenings for Geostorm. Don't get it, the trailer didn't look that bad. Really? I thought it looked pretty tired. Not saying it looks great and I'm hearing anecdotal feedback from overseas that it's pretty terrible. But still, it's a disaster pic with a huge budget, kind of glaring to be omitted from previews.
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Thu Oct 19, 2017 2:18 pm |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
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Re: October 20-22 Predictions
Rolling Thunder wrote: Jonathan wrote: Rolling Thunder wrote: No previews or critic screenings for Geostorm. Don't get it, the trailer didn't look that bad. Really? I thought it looked pretty tired. Not saying it looks great and I'm hearing anecdotal feedback from overseas that it's pretty terrible. But still, it's a disaster pic with a huge budget, kind of glaring to be omitted from previews. On paper it's a great idea for a Roland Emmerich-style disaster flick, but something about the trailer just fails to give the material the heft it needs. The Day After Tomorrow had a similar weather-based premise and looked and felt like an unmissable epic. This feels like a real shrug.
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Thu Oct 19, 2017 3:15 pm |
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i.hope
Defeats all expectations
Joined: Fri May 26, 2006 5:04 pm Posts: 6665
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Re: October 20-22 Predictions
On Fandango, Madea is selling twice as many tickets as Geostorm is. Only the Brave and The Snowman are wrestling for third place among newcomers.
Based on Fandango and my intuition, my predictions:
Madea - 16 Geostorm - 11 Only the Brave - 9 The Snowman - 7 Same Kind of Different as Me - 3.5
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Thu Oct 19, 2017 3:39 pm |
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i.hope
Defeats all expectations
Joined: Fri May 26, 2006 5:04 pm Posts: 6665
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Re: October 20-22 Predictions
Update:
Another batch on Fandango shows Madea slowing down but still leading, and Geostorm falling behind the others, maybe due to it not having previews tonight.
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Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:01 pm |
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