It'll be huge because it's still Star Wars and it will get that holiday multiplier, but I'm feeling this opens 200-210m and has a weaker multiple than Rogue One for sub 700m total.

Who's in?

In
zwackerm
Jack Sparrow
tree and a half
MGKC

Out
SolC9
Barrabas
publicenemy#1
Algren
Jmart
stuffp
Darth Indiana Bond
BJ
nghtvsn
Keyser Soze
Rev

Definitely out.

Out...for now.

A similar drop as Clones had from Phantom Menace would put it at $650m.

Nope.

Way out. $800-$831m

In.

I was going to say yes. The demand factor I don't think will be quite as gigantic considering the last one was the return of Star Wars and the return of the original cast. That alone was going to lead to multiple repeat viewings regardless of quality. Then it turned out very well.

This is the sequel and there's been a film in between so demand probably won't reach that all-time high. And, this is probably going to be the least pleasant of the three with an open-ended ending so repeat viewings will probably go down at least a little.

But...



That's not happening.

Force Awakens was much more well received than Menace, Last Jedi will no doubt be a better movie than Clones, and it won't have the same competition.

So...

Out

out

Clones faced Spiderman which probably caused that drop. Without Spiderman probably would have done around 350 or so.

People are going nuts for the trailer, out

I don't see much buzz, but then Harvey has taken over my social feeds.

In for sure.

The Empire Strikes Back dropped 32% from Star Wars. Attack of the Clones dropped 30% from The Phantom Menace.

It'll happen again - casual moviegoers get excited for the new and shiny, but then aren't committed to see the sequels in the theater.

I predict a similar 30% drop again, resulting in a very respectable $655 million gross. The quality of the movie nor the trailers will have a big impact on its gross in my mind (with the exception being the movie being 2 hours of Luke breathing techniques).

Star Wars took over my feed. Now it will break records if they can get Rick and Morty to endorse it

lol

No idea where this is heading

250m+ | 950m+

Actually, it is a bit more complicated...

If you strictly compare the original releases than EMPIRE ($181,379,640) dropped just 18 % from SW1 ($221,280,994).
By the time EMPIRE opened, SW1 already had two major re-releases which brought the total to $287.6m, so the drop by than amounts to 37 %...

In.

Rian Johnson has only made one good movie, and even that was nine years ago.

Oooo nice call. I misread that then. That's pretty impressive of Empire then.

VETO

This will gross over 700. It'll be at 500 within 2 weeks or less.

Empire is one of those rare sequels that goes in a completely different direction than its predecessor becoming an almost completely different type of film

stong presales start for Sw8 but still looks way off from SW7. in one Major Theater chain its 33% higher than Rogue One.

But SW fans are the craziest and do not want to bet against it. For now I would say 220/800. it could get a bump bcos of Carrie Fisher factor.

This will out do Rogue, the non-episode entries will eventually lead to a flop, but everyone will come out for the episode entries

I think it will have 75% retention of TFA's gross - so that should just sneak it by. Though i dont think it will go much over $700m and at worst - $675-$690m is also possible.