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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm
Posts: 20339
Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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 Worst case scenario for Star Wars: The Last Jedi? What is the lowest possible gross for Star Wars Ep 8?
If it's not a great movie and the new trailer isn't better than the teaser, I think it will gross around 700m. Realistically though, is it possible for it to go lower? The initial trailer wasn't anymore popular than that for Rogue One.
And could it be more front loaded than Rogue One?
I think the worst OW it could possibly have is 190m, which would only happen if it was rotten on RT and the new trailer was lame like the first. And then it could hold slightly worse, and end up around 630-650m total.
Thoughts?
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| Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:11 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm
Posts: 6137
Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: Worst case scenario for Star Wars: The Last Jedi? Worst case scenario would be World War 3 and America gets nuked, but I assume the OP meant within reason.  Disney seems to have paid off RottenTomatoes critics seem unable to give Star Wars truly bad reviews (even The Phantom Menace is fresh), so let's say a 45% RT score is absolute worst case scenario for a truly crap film, and the subsequent trailers look very underwhelming. It would still open huge because Star Wars and Luke Skywalker and nothing is really going to change that at this point. So let's say $190 million OW is the floor. That's even lower than Age of Ultron. Total is another matter, with a truly awful film it could have bad legs despite Christmas. Let's say a x2.6 multiplier, which would make it one of the most frontloaded films released in that period ever. That means a $500 million total. So $190/$500m seems like worst case scenario for this film. Almost a 50% drop from Force Awakens.
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| Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:20 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
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Re: Worst case scenario for Star Wars: The Last Jedi? $700m
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| Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:05 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am
Posts: 22672
Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: Worst case scenario for Star Wars: The Last Jedi? $650m or so. I'm pegging it at a tad below $700m anyway. It will have quite a drop from Force.
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| Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:29 pm |
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Dil
Forum General
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2009 9:48 pm
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Location: Houston, Texas
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Re: Worst case scenario for Star Wars: The Last Jedi? $650-$700M
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| Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:37 pm |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm
Posts: 11808
Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Re: Worst case scenario for Star Wars: The Last Jedi? I'd love to see an alternate reality where Rogue One never existed to see what impact it truly has on The Last Jedi. I'd have to assume it had some impact on the casual fans - somewhat less excitement and uniqueness, but inpossible to quantify.
For the topic question, I'd go with a worst case of $550 million.
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| Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:53 pm |
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nghtvsn
Extraordinary
Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 7:13 pm
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Location: Warren Theatre Oklahoma
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Re: Worst case scenario for Star Wars: The Last Jedi? 600.1
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| Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:56 am |
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Excel
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Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
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Re: Worst case scenario for Star Wars: The Last Jedi? IDK but sure not hearing as much buzz atm as we did TFA
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| Sat Sep 16, 2017 10:25 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm
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Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Worst case scenario for Star Wars: The Last Jedi? I don't think this will do more than 225m after Rogue One essentially weakened Star Wars event status. I feel it has the potential to have an Ultron level drop which would give it 215-220m OW.
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| Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:05 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm
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Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: Worst case scenario for Star Wars: The Last Jedi? There's less hype for this than I expected, especially following Carrie's death. The trailer views also aren't anywhere near other mega tentpoles like Jurassic World.
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| Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:34 am |
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Rev
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Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am
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Location: the last free city
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Re: Worst case scenario for Star Wars: The Last Jedi? Worst case 600m
Best case 900m
It's going to drop n do around 725m-825m
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| Thu Sep 21, 2017 9:36 am |
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