KJ's Fall/Winter 2017 Box Office Contest - FINAL RANKING
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm Posts: 11808 Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Re: KJ's Fall/Winter 2017 Box Office Contest
Flava'd vs The World wrote: What up with the Spring contest? I know we skip January sometimes, but this Jan has a few potential breakouts that are worth predictions IMO. I think I'll have it start on movies being released Jan 12. Probably will have the contest up in the next week or so.
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Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:07 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23775 Location: Classified
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Re: KJ's Fall/Winter 2017 Box Office Contest
MGKC wrote: Flava'd vs The World wrote: What up with the Spring contest? I know we skip January sometimes, but this Jan has a few potential breakouts that are worth predictions IMO. I think I'll have it start on movies being released Jan 12. Probably will have the contest up in the next week or so. Awesome!
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Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:26 pm |
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Omni
The Antichrist
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:04 am Posts: 1742 Location: Calisota
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Re: KJ's Fall/Winter 2017 Box Office Contest
Vanilla is a monster! Easily #1, and with just 4 points from the questions.
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Tue Dec 19, 2017 4:48 am |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm Posts: 11808 Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Re: KJ's Fall/Winter 2017 Box Office Contest
New contest will be up sometime today.
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Tue Dec 26, 2017 3:40 pm |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm Posts: 11808 Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Weekly Ranking for December 31Total Gross ProjectionsAmerican Made - $51.342 millionA Bad Moms Christmas - $72.1 million Battle of the Sexes - $12.639 millionBlade Runner 2049 - $91.52 million Call Me By Your Name - $11 million Coco - $201 million Daddy's Home 2 - $105 million The Disaster Artist - $21 million Downsizing - $29 million Ferdinand - $85 million The Foreigner - $34.394 millionGeostorm - $33.5 million The Greatest Showman - $101 million Happy Death Day - $55.684 millionIt - $327.6 million Jigsaw - $38.053 millionJumanji: Welcome to the Jungle - $325 million Justice League - $229 million Kingsman: The Golden Circle - $100.3 milion The LEGO Ninjago Movie - $59.282 millionmother! - $17.800 millionThe Mountain Between Us - $30.45 million Murder on the Orient Express - $102.5 million My Little Pony - $21.9 million Pitch Perfect 3 - $111 million The Shape of Water - $30 million Star Wars: The Last Jedi - $655 million Suburbicon - $5.775 millionThor: Ragnarok - $315 million Tyler Perry's Boo 2! A Madea Halloween - $47.319 millionCurrent Top 51. Star Wars: The Last Jedi - $517.1 million 2. It - $327.5 million 3. Thor: Ragnarok - $311.4 million 4. Justice League - $225.6 million 5. Coco - $178.9 million Current Answers to Box Office Questions#1: Which will gross more in total - Star Wars: The Last Jedi, double the total gross of Justice League, or triple the total gross of Thor: Ragnarok? - Triple the total gross of Thor: Ragnarok
#2: Which will gross more in total - the combination of Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and Ninjago or the combination of Coco and Ferdinand? - Coco and Ferdinand (currently $232.8 million)
#3: Which 2 of the following films will gross closest to each other in total in dollars - Blade Runner 2049, Geostorm, It, and Murder on the Orient Express? - Blade Runner 2049 and Murder on the Orient Express (currently within $9.1 million of each other)
#4: Which sequel will fall the most from its predecessor (%-wise) - A Bad Moms Christmas, Daddy's Home 2, Jigsaw, Kingsman: The Golden Circle, Pitch Perfect 3, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Thor: Ragnarok, or Tyler Perry's Boo 2: A Madea Halloween? - Pitch Perfect 3 (currently -65.1%)
#5: Which sequel will gross the closest to its predecessor (%-wise) - A Bad Moms Christmas, Daddy's Home 2, Jigsaw, Kingsman: The Golden Circle, Pitch Perfect 3, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Thor: Ragnarok, or Tyler Perry's Boo 2: A Madea Halloween? #6: What will be the highest grossing film to not hit #1 on any of its weekends? - Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (currently $169.8 million)
#7: What movie will lose the largest number of theaters in its 3rd weekend? - Friend Request (-1,927 theaters)
#8: How many films will gross over $100 million? - Ten (It, Thor: Ragnarok, Justice League, Kingsman: The Golden Circle, Coco, Wonder, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Daddy's Home 2, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, Murder on the Orient Express)
#9: How many films will gross over $200 million? - Four (It, Thor: Ragnarok, Justice League, Star Wars: The Last Jedi)
#10: What will be the highest grossing film not predicted in the total gross section (including the backup films)? - Wonder (currently $121.6 million)
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Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:10 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23775 Location: Classified
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Re: KJ's Fall/Winter 2017 Box Office Contest
+17 spots! No chance to catch Vanilla , but at least I keep my respectable finish streak alive.
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Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:10 pm |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
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Re: KJ's Fall/Winter 2017 Box Office Contest
Man, It, Justice League, and Jumanji have wrecked the top 5 predictions this season. The only people getting more than two points this year are the ones that ranked Thor 3rd or 4th, depending on how high Jumanji goes.
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Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:11 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: KJ's Fall/Winter 2017 Box Office Contest - Charts up!
MGKC wrote: Algren wrote: MGKC wrote: zwackerm wrote: It looks just about guaranteed to beat Coco. Plus a dang good chance at beating Thor: Ragnorak. That would already eliminate all top 5's out of play. Not Magic Mike. Ha, The Greatest Showman is not breaking $100 million, let alone getting the #5 spot. Mike is on crazy pills with that one. I was the highest predictor with that movie. I could see it doing 120+ now.
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Sat Jan 06, 2018 4:27 am |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23775 Location: Classified
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Re: KJ's Fall/Winter 2017 Box Office Contest
I had 113. Hugh Jackman in a musical around Christmas always seemed like a good idea. Though it had me worried there.
So with potential points from TGS for total gross and question #6 (since Jumanji will be #1 this weekend), that would put me 2 points behind Vanilla? So I need The Shape of Water to do some work for me. The Post breaking out would help too.
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Sat Jan 06, 2018 4:54 am |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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Re: KJ's Fall/Winter 2017 Box Office Contest
The Greatest Showman has done extremely well, but won't reach my prediction, lol. I always thought it had the air of a holiday hit.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:39 pm |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm Posts: 11808 Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Re: KJ's Fall/Winter 2017 Box Office Contest - Charts up!
Magic Mike wrote: MGKC wrote: Algren wrote: MGKC wrote: zwackerm wrote: It looks just about guaranteed to beat Coco. Plus a dang good chance at beating Thor: Ragnorak. That would already eliminate all top 5's out of play. Not Magic Mike. Ha, The Greatest Showman is not breaking $100 million, let alone getting the #5 spot. Mike is on crazy pills with that one. I was the highest predictor with that movie. I could see it doing 120+ now. Mike, you got me on that one.
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Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:23 am |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm Posts: 11808 Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Re: KJ's Fall/Winter 2017 Box Office Contest
Also - I'll work on the calculations this week on what it would take to unseat Vanilla. If I find there's no way, I'll wait until the top 3 is clear to present the final standings.
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Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:24 am |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: KJ's Fall/Winter 2017 Box Office Contest - Charts up!
MGKC wrote: Magic Mike wrote: MGKC wrote: Algren wrote: MGKC wrote: zwackerm wrote: It looks just about guaranteed to beat Coco. Plus a dang good chance at beating Thor: Ragnorak. That would already eliminate all top 5's out of play. Not Magic Mike. Ha, The Greatest Showman is not breaking $100 million, let alone getting the #5 spot. Mike is on crazy pills with that one. I was the highest predictor with that movie. I could see it doing 120+ now. Mike, you got me on that one. It doesn't happen often .
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Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:25 pm |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm Posts: 11808 Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Re: KJ's Fall/Winter 2017 Box Office Contest
Currently as it stands: #1: Vanilla - 45 pts #2: moviegeek151 - 36 pts #3: Flava'd - 34 pts #4: SolC9 - 33 pts #5: Omni - 33 pts #6: MGKC - 33 pts #7: exxdee13 - 32 pts #8: Biggestgeekever - 32 pts #9: publicenemy#1 - 31 pts #10: MadGez - 30 pts #11: stuffp - 30 pts
Things that will happen: -Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle passes Thor: Ragnorak for the #3 position. (100% CHANCE) VANILLA, FLAVA'D, SOLC9, OMNI, MGKC, EXXDEE13, BIGGESTGEEKEVER, PUBLICENEMY#1, MADGEZ, AND STUFFP LOSE 1 PT.
-Two more movies pass $100 million, leaving the answer to question #8 as twelve movies. OMNI, BIGGESTGEEKEVER, AND MADGEZ LOSE 2 PTS. VANILLA, MOVIEGEEK151, AND FLAVA'D GAIN 2 PTS.
Things that could happen:
-Coco passes $200 million, leaving the answer to question #9 as six movies. BIGGESTGEEKEVER LOSES 2 PTS.
-Call Me Your Name passes $12 million. (50% CHANCE) OMNI GAINS 3 PTS.
-Call Me Your Name makes $10 million or less. (50% CHANCE) STUFFP LOSES 3 PTS.
-Daddy's Home 2 passes $105 million. (50% CHANCE) BIGGESTGEEKEVER LOSES 3 PTS.
-Daddy's Home 2 fails to make $105 million or more. (50% CHANCE) SOLC9 LOSES 3 PTS.
-The Disaster Artist makes $25 million or more. (35% CHANCE) STUFFP PASSES 3 PTS.
-The Disaster Artist fails to make $22.5 million or more. (35% CHANCE) MOVIEGEEK151 LOSES 3 PTS.
-The Shape of Water makes more than $35 million. (35% CHANCE) VANILLA LOSES 3 PTS.
-The Shape of Water makes $36.5 million or more. (35% CHANCE) VANILLA LOSES 3 PTS. FLAVA'D GAINS 3 PTS.
-The Shape of Water makes between $33 million and $38 million. (30% CHANCE) VANILLA LOSES 3 PTS. FLAVA'D AND STUFF GAIN 3 PTS.
-The Shape of Water makes more than $38 million. (25% CHANCE) VANILLA, MGKC, AND OMNI LOSE 3 PTS. FLAVA'D AND STUFF GAIN 3 PTS.
-The Shape of Water fails to make more than $30 million. (25% CHANCE) PUBLICENEMY#1 GAINS 3 PTS.
-Pitch Perfect 3 fails to make more than $109 million. (30% CHANCE) MGKC GAINS 3 PTS.
-Pitch Perfect 3 fails to make $109 million or more. (30% CHANCE) EXDEE13 GAINS 3 PTS.
-Pitch Perfect 3 makes $115 million or more. (30% CHANCE) MADGEZ GAINS 3 PTS.
-Pitch Perfect 3 passes $117 million or more. This also means A Bad Moms Christmas becomes the answer to question #5, the highest dropping sequel. (10% CHANCE) MADGEZ GAINS 3 PTS. MGKC, PUBLICENEMY#1 LOSES 2 PTS.
-Pitch Perfect 3 makes $119.1 million or more (25% CHANCE) MADGEZ GAINS 3 PTS. FLAVA'D LOSES 3 PTS.
-Star Wars: The Last Jedi makes $645 million or more. (25% CHANCE) STUFFP GAINS 3 PTS.
-Star Wars: The Last Jedi makes more than $645 million. (25% CHANCE) STUFFP GAINS 3 PTS. MGKC LOSES 3 PTS.
-Star Wars: The Last Jedi makes more than $650 million. (20% CHANCE) STUFFP GAINS 3 PTS. MGKC AND OMNI LOSE 3 PTS.
Less likely things that could happen:
-The Greatest Showman fails to make $104.5 million or more (20% CHANCE) EXDEE13 LOSES 3 PTS.
-The Greatest Showman fails to make $104 million or more (19% CHANCE) EXDEE13 AND FLAVA'D LOSE 3 PTS.
-Coco passes $205 million. (10% CHANCE) FLAVA'D LOSES 3 PTS.
-Coco fails to pass $197 million. (10% CHANCE) MOVIEGEEK151 GAINS 3 PTS.
-A Bad Moms Christmas passes $72.5 million. (10% CHANCE) MADGEZ GAINS 3 PTS.
-Ferdinand passes $97.5 million. (10% CHANCE) OMNI LOSES 3 PTS.
-Murder on the Orient Express passes $105 million. (10% CHANCE) BIGGESTGEEKEVER GAINS 3 PTS.
-The Greatest Showman passes Wonder's total gross of at least $130 million. (2% CHANCE) FLAVA'D GAINS 2 PTS.
-Three more movies pass $100 million, leaving the answer to question #8 as thirteen movies. (1% CHANCE) OMNI, BIGGESTGEEKEVER, AND MADGEZ LOSE 2 PTS. SOLC9 GAINS 2 PTS.
-The Post passes Wonder's total gross. (1% CHANCE) MOVIEGEEK151, MGKC, EXDEE13, PUBLICENEMY#1 LOSE 2 PTS. FLAVA'D, SOLC9, AND BIGGESTGEEKEVER GAINS 2 PTS.
-Some other movie we didn't predict passes Wonder's total gross. (1% CHANCE) MOVIEGEEK151, MGKC, EXDEE13, PUBLICENEMY#1 LOSE 2 PTS.
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Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:05 pm |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm Posts: 11808 Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Re: KJ's Fall/Winter 2017 Box Office Contest
Basically the path to Vanilla's unseating: - Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle passes Thor: Ragnorak for the #3 position. (VANILLA LOSES 1 PT)
- The Shape of Water makes more than $35 million. (VANILLA LOSES 3 PTS)
- A total of thirteen movies pass $100 million - The Post or some other we didn't predict. (VANILLA PREVENTED FROM GAINING 2 PTS)
Those 3 would leave Vanilla at 41 pts. Potential passers: moviegeek151, at 36 pts currently, only has a chance to gain 3 points without Vanilla gaining more points as well.- Flava'd, at 34 pts currently, would gain 2 points with the above scenario but will also lose 1 point. He has a chance to gain 7 more points additionally.
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Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:16 pm |
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stuffp
Keeping it Light
Joined: Wed Apr 08, 2015 8:06 am Posts: 11204 Location: Bright Falls
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Re: KJ's Fall/Winter 2017 Box Office Contest
A 9pt lead sounds like a sure Vanilla win.
Props to running all those calculations though.
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Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:18 am |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm Posts: 11808 Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Re: KJ's Fall/Winter 2017 Box Office Contest
I am VERY close to calling this, but tonight's Oscar results and subsequent weekend box office should help determine it.
Magic Mike is now 3 points behind Vanilla. He needs 1 additional movie to pass $100 million to win the game.
It's fairly unlikely, but a big win for The Shape of Water could theoretically boost to $100 million, or a large re-release of The Post to get it to $100 million could happen if it miraculously wins Best Picture (ha).
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Sun Mar 04, 2018 6:30 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67039
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Re: KJ's Fall/Winter 2017 Box Office Contest
Wow, forgot this was even on-going. Great that it still is.
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Sun Mar 04, 2018 7:34 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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Re: KJ's Fall/Winter 2017 Box Office Contest
The Shape of Water is not getting to 100m, for sure. Not even if it wins Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actress. It is already available as a digital download, and it will be in stores, at Redbox sites, etc. on the 13th.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:53 pm |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm Posts: 11808 Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Re: KJ's Fall/Winter 2017 Box Office Contest
Yep, I think all Best Picture winners of the past 5 years have gotten less than $5 million after winning.
Just want to make sure nothing weird happens over the next week.
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Sun Mar 04, 2018 10:01 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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Re: KJ's Fall/Winter 2017 Box Office Contest
The Artist is the last one to earn over 10 million after winning Best Picture. The King's Speech earned 21 million after winning the year prior. But the norm now seems to be around 4 to 7 million.
We will see how The Shape of Water (or Three Billboards) does.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:40 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67039
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Re: KJ's Fall/Winter 2017 Box Office Contest
Can Shape of Water make another $43m? It did take Best Picture AND Best Director. Might that sway more people?
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Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:52 am |
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BK
Forum General
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 8:30 am Posts: 7041
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Re: KJ's Fall/Winter 2017 Box Office Contest
Just about to ask for final results when I realized I was late so I wouldn't have been in the results anyway hahaha
_________________ Calls Ghost Rider + Clash of the Titans = 2x Wrath of the Titans + Ghost Rider 2 Lorax over Despicable Me Men in Black 3 Under 100m Madagascar 3 Under 100m Rise of the Guardians over 250m
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Wed Mar 21, 2018 2:07 am |
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BK
Forum General
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 8:30 am Posts: 7041
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Re: KJ's Fall/Winter 2017 Box Office Contest
Predict the Following Films' Total Gross Underestimated It 289.86% The Shape of Water 248.68% Jumanji 225.52% The Disaster Artist 92% Murder on the Orient Express 53.47% Call Me By Your Name 36.43% Star Wars: The Last Jedi 29.67% Happy Death Day 29.5% My Little Pony 28.74% Thor: Ragnarok 27.04%
Daddy's Home 18.21% The Greatest Showman 14.75% Coco 13.69% Overestimated Pitch Perfect 3 -2.87% Ferdinand -6.96% Geostorm -11.32% A Bad Moms Christmas -13.12% The Foreigner -14.02% Blade Runner 2049 -19.25% American Made -19.78%
The Mountain Between Us -20.14% Tylery Perry's Boo 2! -30.41% Kingsman 2 -30.87% Justice League -40.97% Ninjago -46.59% Downsizing -49.06% Jigsaw -49.93% mother! -51.89% Battle of the Sexes -62.83% Flatliners -76.22% Suburbicon -83.96% Snowman -90.15%Predict the Top 5 Grossing Movies of Fall/Winter 2017 #1: The Last Jedi The Last Jedi#2: Justice League Jumanji#3: Thor: Ragnarok It#4: Coco Thor: Ragnarok#5: The Greatest Showman Justice LeagueThe 10 Box Office Questions #1: Which will gross more in total - Star Wars: The Last Jedi, double the total gross of Justice League, or triple the total gross of Thor: Ragnorak? #2: Which will gross more in total - the combination of Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and Ninjago or the combination of Coco and Ferdinand? #3: Which 2 of the following films will gross closest to each other in total in dollars - Blade Runner 2049, Geostorm, It, and Murder on the Orient Express? (based off previous predictions) #4: Which sequel will fall the most from its predecessor (%-wise) - A Bad Moms Christmas, Daddy's Home 2, Jigsaw, Kingsman: The Golden Circle, Pitch Perfect 3, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Thor: Ragnorak, or Tyler Perry's Boo 2: A Madea Halloween? #5: Which sequel will gross the closest to its predecessor (%-wise) - A Bad Moms Christmas, Daddy's Home 2, Jigsaw, Kingsman: The Golden Circle, Pitch Perfect 3, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Thor: Ragnorak, or Tyler Perry's Boo 2: A Madea Halloween? #6: What will be the highest grossing film to not hit #1 on any of its weekends? The Greatest Showman #7: What movie will have lose the largest number of theaters in its 3rd weekend? Geostorm #8: How many films will gross over $100 million? 9 #9: How many films will gross over $200 million? 3 #10: What will be the highest grossing film not predicted in the total gross section (including the backup films)? Bastards Haven't actually watched any trailers besides the ones in MGKC's playlist, so just chose this. Anyway, see how I do, having been out of it for months now. Good luck to the actual competitors and thanks MGKC for running this game again.
_________________ Calls Ghost Rider + Clash of the Titans = 2x Wrath of the Titans + Ghost Rider 2 Lorax over Despicable Me Men in Black 3 Under 100m Madagascar 3 Under 100m Rise of the Guardians over 250m
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Wed Mar 21, 2018 3:06 am |
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BK
Forum General
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 8:30 am Posts: 7041
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Re: KJ's Fall/Winter 2017 Box Office Contest
Some pretty awful overpredictions there- Snowman, Flatliners (Though both weren't in the game) & Suburbicon and Battle of the Sexes.
_________________ Calls Ghost Rider + Clash of the Titans = 2x Wrath of the Titans + Ghost Rider 2 Lorax over Despicable Me Men in Black 3 Under 100m Madagascar 3 Under 100m Rise of the Guardians over 250m
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Wed Mar 21, 2018 3:09 am |
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