Author |
Message |
Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
|
Will next weekend be the worst weekend of the last 20 years?
Going off of Top 10 gross, the current title is held by Sept. 5-7, 2014 ($51.5 million), followed closely by September 7-9, 2012 ($51.9 million), followed very far back by Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2015 ($62.7 million). But with the way the schedule is currently set up, we may be in for the worst weekend in a pretty long time. This weekend Annabelle 2 should do well enough to keep the box office afloat (if still way behind last year), but next weekend we have only two openers (Hitman's Bodyguard and Logan Lucky), both of which could easily miss $15 million opening weekend. Weekend after that there are three openers (All Saints, Leap!, and Birth of the Dragon), none of which seem at all likely to top $10 million OW, unless All Saints gets a massive church push (not impossible). By this point it's pretty likely that the top 12 will be below $70 million, maybe even closer to $60 million. And all of this builds to Labor Day weekend, which doesn't have any wide openers scheduled, period. Labor Day usually benefits holdovers, so drops will be kind, especially without any new releases, but it might already be so low that the top 12 begins flirting with dipping below the grosses of those two weekends. It's kinda nuts. I currently have it pegged at $50.2 million, but that's also factoring in my predictions for the three weekends prior to it, so that could easily change. Either way, what the hell are these studios thinking? Are they that scared of It?
Last edited by Jonathan on Sat Aug 26, 2017 3:33 pm, edited 2 times in total.
|
Thu Aug 10, 2017 12:34 pm |
|
|
Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
|
Re: Will Labor Day weekend be the worst weekend of the 2010s
Entire August has been a wasteland a decent movie could have done REALLY well.
|
Thu Aug 10, 2017 11:16 pm |
|
|
lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am Posts: 3129
|
Re: Will Labor Day weekend be the worst weekend of the 2010s
There's a sense that there is a flurry of activity among families as they prep for the school year and go on that last summer trip. I'd like to see a big budget flick OPEN on Labor Day weekend.
_________________ I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
|
Fri Aug 11, 2017 2:48 am |
|
|
Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
|
Re: Will Labor Day weekend be the worst weekend of the 2010s
Tulip Fever is now going wide over Memorial. Which won't do much.
|
Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:07 pm |
|
|
MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22677 Location: Melbourne Australia
|
Re: Will Labor Day weekend be the worst weekend of the 2010s
lilmac wrote: There's a sense that there is a flurry of activity among families as they prep for the school year and go on that last summer trip. I'd like to see a big budget flick OPEN on Labor Day weekend. Remember the rumours that War of the Worlds was opening Labour Day weekend?
_________________
What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=85934
|
Thu Aug 17, 2017 2:24 am |
|
|
Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
|
Re: Will Labor Day weekend be the worst weekend of the 2010s
Magic Mike wrote: Tulip Fever is now going wide over Memorial. Which won't do much. Supposedly the review embargo on it lifts at 1PM on its opening day.
|
Thu Aug 17, 2017 2:28 pm |
|
|
Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
|
Re: Will Labor Day weekend be the worst weekend of the 2010s
Yeah I'm not expecting good reviews. Mixed at best.
|
Thu Aug 17, 2017 3:09 pm |
|
|
Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
|
Re: Will Labor Day weekend be the worst weekend of the 2010s
A lot of movies could have done well in early August this year.
|
Sun Aug 20, 2017 9:13 am |
|
|
MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22677 Location: Melbourne Australia
|
Re: Will Labor Day weekend be the worst weekend of the 2010s
I still think American Made and Kingsman could both have done well in August.
Yes Jumanji too as the lack of worthwhile family films post DM3/Spidey is a major misfire
_________________
What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=85934
|
Mon Aug 21, 2017 12:54 am |
|
|
1924
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Tue Mar 26, 2013 4:43 pm Posts: 1079
|
Re: Will Labor Day weekend be the worst weekend of the 2010s
EMoji and Annabelle show how good this release window is and why it is dumb for studios not to take advantage of it. Emoji is holding well despite toxic reviews. Annabelle will outgross the first. Might even reach 100m
|
Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:47 pm |
|
|
Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
|
Re: Will Labor Day weekend be the worst weekend of the 2010s
This might be the most boring Labor Day I can remember. It's amazing how fearful studios are to release a quality product here. Only 1 film has opened over $20m in the last 9 years - nobody wants to be the first to roll the dice.
_________________ Making Predictions Great Again!
|
Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:01 pm |
|
|
mark66
Extraordinary
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2005 2:41 pm Posts: 13041 Location: Augsburg (2,038 years young)
|
Re: Will Labor Day weekend be the worst weekend of the 2010s
I wonder how many expansions and re-releases will be in the top ten...
_________________ Nothing Compares 2 U
|
Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:26 pm |
|
|
MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22677 Location: Melbourne Australia
|
Re: Will Labor Day weekend be the worst weekend of the 2010s
It will close out the weakest summer in 25 years (admissions wise). Very poor.
_________________
What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=85934
|
Fri Aug 25, 2017 1:19 am |
|
|
Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
|
Re: Will Labor Day weekend be the worst weekend of the 2010s
Plot twist: BO.com's current weekend projections have this weekend's top 12 at $49.5 million - if that holds, this weekend will be the lowest grossing weekend top 12 since September 21-23, 2001 ($43.5 million). Their projections could end up being a bit pessimistic and maybe it'll end up above $50.3 million, making it only the worst since 2008, but this weekend and next weekend look almost locked to be the nadir of the decade.
|
Sat Aug 26, 2017 12:38 pm |
|
|
Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
|
Re: Will Labor Day weekend be the worst weekend of the 2010s
My current predictions for next weekend, basing of BO.com's projections and trying to be generous with drops since it's a holiday and this weekend has numerous factors hurting business (Harvey, McGregor/Mayweather, GoT+VMAs), have the top 12 at $36.4 million. Only one weekend in the last 20 years has had a top 12 below $40 million: September 15-17, 2000, at $37.8 million. Barring some incredible holds, next weekend will almost certainly be below $40 million, and the odds of this finishing below $37.8 million are pretty decent.
|
Sat Aug 26, 2017 3:30 pm |
|
|
Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
|
Re: Will Labor Day weekend be the worst weekend of the 2010s
Jonathan wrote: Plot twist: BO.com's current weekend projections have this weekend's top 12 at $49.5 million - if that holds, this weekend will be the lowest grossing weekend top 12 since September 21-23, 2001 ($43.5 million). Their projections could end up being a bit pessimistic and maybe it'll end up above $50.3 million, making it only the worst since 2008, but this weekend and next weekend look almost locked to be the nadir of the decade. Current top 12 total is at $48.9 million. Another fun fact about next weekend: if the top 12 total is below $40.8 million, it'll be the least attended weekend since at least 1982, when BOM's top 12 tracking started: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/we ... 017&p=.htmThis is kind of fun to watch in its own way.
|
Sun Aug 27, 2017 12:33 pm |
|
|
SolC9
Forum General
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:11 pm Posts: 7172 Location: Wisconsin
|
Re: Will Labor Day weekend be the worst weekend of the 2010s
Jonathan wrote: Jonathan wrote: Plot twist: BO.com's current weekend projections have this weekend's top 12 at $49.5 million - if that holds, this weekend will be the lowest grossing weekend top 12 since September 21-23, 2001 ($43.5 million). Their projections could end up being a bit pessimistic and maybe it'll end up above $50.3 million, making it only the worst since 2008, but this weekend and next weekend look almost locked to be the nadir of the decade. Current top 12 total is at $48.9 million. Another fun fact about next weekend: if the top 12 total is below $40.8 million, it'll be the least attended weekend since at least 1982, when BOM's top 12 tracking started: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/we ... 017&p=.htmThis is kind of fun to watch in its own way. Not when you work at a movie theater.
|
Sun Aug 27, 2017 12:47 pm |
|
|
Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
|
Re: Will Labor Day weekend be the worst weekend of the 2010s
SolC9 wrote: Jonathan wrote: Jonathan wrote: Plot twist: BO.com's current weekend projections have this weekend's top 12 at $49.5 million - if that holds, this weekend will be the lowest grossing weekend top 12 since September 21-23, 2001 ($43.5 million). Their projections could end up being a bit pessimistic and maybe it'll end up above $50.3 million, making it only the worst since 2008, but this weekend and next weekend look almost locked to be the nadir of the decade. Current top 12 total is at $48.9 million. Another fun fact about next weekend: if the top 12 total is below $40.8 million, it'll be the least attended weekend since at least 1982, when BOM's top 12 tracking started: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/we ... 017&p=.htmThis is kind of fun to watch in its own way. Not when you work at a movie theater. Yeah, I do feel awful for all the chains right now, and especially the independent theaters. I went to see Girls Trip at my local two-screen theater and they were deeeead. The studios really screwed them over with this August schedule.
|
Sun Aug 27, 2017 12:57 pm |
|
|
SolC9
Forum General
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:11 pm Posts: 7172 Location: Wisconsin
|
Re: Will Labor Day weekend be the worst weekend of the 2010s
Jonathan wrote: SolC9 wrote: Jonathan wrote: Jonathan wrote: Plot twist: BO.com's current weekend projections have this weekend's top 12 at $49.5 million - if that holds, this weekend will be the lowest grossing weekend top 12 since September 21-23, 2001 ($43.5 million). Their projections could end up being a bit pessimistic and maybe it'll end up above $50.3 million, making it only the worst since 2008, but this weekend and next weekend look almost locked to be the nadir of the decade. Current top 12 total is at $48.9 million. Another fun fact about next weekend: if the top 12 total is below $40.8 million, it'll be the least attended weekend since at least 1982, when BOM's top 12 tracking started: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/we ... 017&p=.htmThis is kind of fun to watch in its own way. Not when you work at a movie theater. Yeah, I do feel awful for all the chains right now, and especially the independent theaters. I went to see Girls Trip at my local two-screen theater and they were deeeead. The studios really screwed them over with this August schedule. And outside of Blade Runner, the October schedule, and the first two weeks of December.
|
Sun Aug 27, 2017 1:53 pm |
|
|
Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
|
Re: Will Labor Day weekend be the worst weekend of the 2010s
SolC9 wrote: Jonathan wrote: SolC9 wrote: Jonathan wrote: Jonathan wrote: Plot twist: BO.com's current weekend projections have this weekend's top 12 at $49.5 million - if that holds, this weekend will be the lowest grossing weekend top 12 since September 21-23, 2001 ($43.5 million). Their projections could end up being a bit pessimistic and maybe it'll end up above $50.3 million, making it only the worst since 2008, but this weekend and next weekend look almost locked to be the nadir of the decade. Current top 12 total is at $48.9 million. Another fun fact about next weekend: if the top 12 total is below $40.8 million, it'll be the least attended weekend since at least 1982, when BOM's top 12 tracking started: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/we ... 017&p=.htmThis is kind of fun to watch in its own way. Not when you work at a movie theater. Yeah, I do feel awful for all the chains right now, and especially the independent theaters. I went to see Girls Trip at my local two-screen theater and they were deeeead. The studios really screwed them over with this August schedule. And outside of Blade Runner, the October schedule, and the first two weeks of December. The first two weeks of December are pretty much always crappy now, though. Coco, Justice League, and Thor should have solid holdover runs, at least. But yeah, October is pretty pathetic. Disney really shoulda just released Thor in October - it's a weak month, and it gives it more time away from Justice League. It would cleeeeean up (and get Marvel another OW record).
|
Sun Aug 27, 2017 2:14 pm |
|
|
MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22677 Location: Melbourne Australia
|
Re: Will Labor Day weekend be the worst weekend of the 2010s
Jonathan wrote: Jonathan wrote: Plot twist: BO.com's current weekend projections have this weekend's top 12 at $49.5 million - if that holds, this weekend will be the lowest grossing weekend top 12 since September 21-23, 2001 ($43.5 million). Their projections could end up being a bit pessimistic and maybe it'll end up above $50.3 million, making it only the worst since 2008, but this weekend and next weekend look almost locked to be the nadir of the decade. Current top 12 total is at $48.9 million. Another fun fact about next weekend: if the top 12 total is below $40.8 million, it'll be the least attended weekend since at least 1982, when BOM's top 12 tracking started: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/we ... 017&p=.htmThis is kind of fun to watch in its own way. Agreed. How low can it go! Obviously, the studios allowed this to happen so not overly alarming. To think there was widespread panic in 2005 with the so called "BO Slump". Yet ticket sales haven't surpassed that year's admissions in the last decade (bar 2009).
_________________
What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=85934
|
Sun Aug 27, 2017 7:44 pm |
|
|
lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am Posts: 3129
|
Re: Will next weekend be the worst weekend of the last 20 ye
This will be a weekend for the ages.
_________________ I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
|
Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:43 pm |
|
|
Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
|
Re: Will next weekend be the worst weekend of the last 20 ye
And with that, this was the lowest-grossing top 12 since...last weekend?! What kind of plot twist?! Despite zero new openers, the holiday managed to save the weekend from dipping below $50 million, and thanks to the theatrical presentation of the fight last weekend, last weekend was only the worst top 12 in 9 years. Still a ridiculously pathetic two weekends, among the least-attended in the modern era, but I guess there is a floor to how pathetic weekend grosses can get.
|
Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:37 pm |
|
|
DP07
Homo Dperious
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 14474 Location: Everywhere
|
Re: Will next weekend be the worst weekend of the last 20 ye
Plus Labor Day always helps even if the studios don't value it.
|
Mon Sep 04, 2017 7:52 pm |
|
|
Thegun
On autopilot for the summer
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:14 pm Posts: 21634 Location: Walking around somewhere
|
Re: Will next weekend be the worst weekend of the last 20 ye
Jeepers Creepers 3 missed out big time. That was pretty much the king of that weekend, and the added controversy may have helped even more.
_________________Chippy wrote: As always, fuck Thegun. Chippy wrote: I want to live vicariously through you, Thegun!
|
Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:26 pm |
|
|