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Weekend Estimates 7/21-7/23
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Author:  emste26 [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 7:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Weekend Estimates 7/21-7/23
BOM #'s:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

(Apparently the 47 Meters Down number is wrong and is actually 440k according to PBO).
Author:  Jonathan [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 7:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates 7/21-7/23
Excellent weekend for Dunkirk. A 20%+ increase from its true Friday is promising for its legs, so with a few more weeks of summer $200+ million remains in the cards. The fact that Nolan can make a WWII movie with very few big names and absolutely zero American connection pull in those kind of numbers really shows that he's now of the best draws working today, even better than most actors.

Great start for Girls Trip too, which with it's A+ Cinemascore should have a nice leggy run. Looks like we'll have a $100+ million comedy after all!

Good hold for The Big Sick, which should be good for at least $40 million now. I guess expectations were higher before the final expansion, but for an indie RomCom where your biggest draw was Ray Romamo it's a great run.

Baby Driver is pretty much locked for $100 million now. What a lovely run!
Author:  emste26 [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 8:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates 7/21-7/23
Solid opening for Dunkirk if not a little lower than I was hoping after the preview number. (I thought it's appeal to older audiences might make it less front loaded). Either way, pretty solid and should find it's way to around the 200M mark and possibly much higher if WOM is as great as the reviews.

Amazing for Girl's Trip. The "sleeper" of the summer that most of us saw coming broke out even more than many were expecting. African American leaning movies tend to be fairly front loaded, but I'm thinking this one will buck the trend and leg out to 110M+ and I'm sure a sequel will be greenlit soon.

Valerian was also the bomb we all saw coming, but even fell short of the 18-20M it should have been able to get. Will probably exit theaters with around 45M. It'll be interesting to see how it fairs internationally, but even that isn't likely to save this bomb.

It was a pretty interesting weekend when it comes to internal multipliers for the holdovers. Just about every movie had a multiplier of 3.35-3.7, after the last several weeks most maxed out around 3.35. Not sure if that's because schools are starting up again in some parts of the country or if the new competition kind of muted Friday for holdovers.

SM:H had another large drop, although I guess it's expected when you have openings combine for almost 100M. Should find it's way somewhere around 305-310M.

Pitiful drop for War for the Planet of the Apes in the face of some stiff competition. Both of it's predecessors dropped about 50% while this installment drops nearly 65% and has a 2nd weekend more than 7M below the first movie's. It'll be lucky to hit 145M at this rate.

DM3 continues to hold much better than Minions and will wind up within striking distance of the original, with around 240-245M, depending on how much Emoji Movie hurts it.

Baby Driver has the best hold in the top 10 (just barely ahead of WW) and should finish it's run with 105M or so which would beat out all of Edgar Wright's other films combined by about 10M.

After kind of stumbling in it's wide opening last weekend, The Big Sick saves some face with a great hold. Hard to see how it plays from here as it will likely start shedding theaters but also has great WOM, it should still make it to 40M+ with ease.

Finally, Wonder Woman has passed Guardians 2 to claim the summer crown. At it's current pace, it looks like it should finish with around 405M and pass the original Spiderman to become the highest grossing non-sequel Superhero movie ever (not counting Avengers as that is basically a mega sequel). Granted, she was a prominent character in BvS before this, but you could probably argue that that movie probably hurt more than it helped. With all of the Superhero madness, it's crazy that it took 15 years to beat it. (Also surprising that Deadpool was the closest one before now.)
Author:  zwackerm [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 8:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates 7/21-7/23
1 N DUNKIRK WB $50,500,000 - 3,720 - $13,575 $50,500,000 1
2 N GIRLS TRIP Uni. $30,370,720 - 2,591 - $11,722 $30,370,720 1
3 2 SPIDER-MAN: HOMECOMING Sony $22,010,000 -50.2% 4,130 -218 $5,329 $251,711,581 3
4 1 WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES Fox $20,400,000 -63.7% 4,100 +78 $4,976 $97,750,914 2
5 N VALERIAN AND THE CITY OF A THOUSAND PLANETS STX $17,020,000 - 2,763 - $4,790 $17,020,000 1
6 3 DESPICABLE ME 3 Uni. $12,714,475 -34.3% 3,525 -630 $3,607 $213,322,700 4
7 4 BABY DRIVER TriS $6,000,000 -31.1% 2,503-540 $2,397 $84,233,939 4
8 5 THE BIG SICK LGF $5,000,000 -33.9% 2,597 - $1,925 $24,539,378 5
9 6 WONDER WOMAN WB $4,630,000 -31.9% 1,971 -773 $2,349 $389,033,279 8
10 7 WISH UPON BG $2,477,816 -54.7% 2,154 -96 $1,150 $10,522,081 2

11 8 CARS 3 BV $1,927,000 -38.2% 1,294 -755 $1,489 $144,021,565 6
12 9 TRANSFORMERS: THE LAST KNIGHT Par. $1,125,000 -60.4% 1,025 -1,298 $1,098 $40,238,215 5
13 11 47 METERS DOWN ENTMP $725,000 -36.4% 448 -584 $1,618 $42,549,457 6
14 20 MAUDIE SPC $390,198 +58.4% 233 +134 $1,675 $4,064,865 14
15 13 GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 2 BV $357,000 -29.9% 268 -131 $1,332 $387,252,502 12
16 17 CAPTAIN UNDERPANTS: THE FIRST EPIC MOVIE Fox $355,000 +7.0% 291 +14 $1,220 $71,759,237 8
17 12 THE BEGUILED Focus $251,600 -72.7% 331 -395 $760 $10,155,034 5
18 14 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MEN TELL NO TALES BV $250,000 -49.6% 229 -219 $1,092 $170,620,200 9

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 9:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates 7/21-7/23
Eh if Avengers is not an "original" then WW should also not be considered even though its an origins story its clearly tied to BvS and DCEU.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 9:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates 7/21-7/23
Baby Driver and Big Sick had great Saturday's. Baby Driver's hold this weekend is amazing in the face of so much competition. Well-deserved. With weaker competition next weekend it should easily see another great hold.
Author:  Excel [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 10:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates 7/21-7/23
Nolan is obviously a draw though Dunkirk received an epic marketing campaign.
Author:  Excel [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates 7/21-7/23
Magnus wrote:
What matters for Dunkirk is the 50m+ OW moreso than how frontloaded it was. Nolan clearly has a fan base now that will rush out. But opening abkve 50m makes 200m very realistic if not more.

I see it finishing around 220m-230m. It will play well until after Labor Day.


I am thinking closer to 400m-700m, with another 600m-1.2b from overseas. It will be in top until Christmas 2018.
Author:  Lumpy Space Princess [ Mon Jul 24, 2017 12:27 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates 7/21-7/23
The time is all the fucked up in here
Author:  Lumpy Space Princess [ Mon Jul 24, 2017 12:31 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates 7/21-7/23
Lumpy Space Princess wrote:
The time is all the fucked up in here
Author:  i.hope [ Mon Jul 24, 2017 12:42 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates 7/21-7/23
If Dunkirk and Valerian swapped distributors, would the gap between them be smaller?
Author:  i.hope [ Mon Jul 24, 2017 1:09 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates 7/21-7/23
*The clock on this site is seven hours faster than it is. Hope it gets fixed soon.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Mon Jul 24, 2017 1:17 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates 7/21-7/23
I feel like with reviews, WOM, and absolutely no new wide release comedies the rest of the summer Girls Trip should be leggy and play more like a regular comedy (it feels weird saying that but yes urban-targeted comedies tend to be more front-loaded generally). There's not even a new comedy until September 8th with Home Again. That's crazy. I know there's Logan Lucky or Hitman's Bodyguard but those are action comedies.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Mon Jul 24, 2017 2:36 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates 7/21-7/23
Wonder Wonder's run is insane.

That Apes drop is probably attributed more to Dunkirk than audiences rejecting it completely. Should've opened in August...
Author:  Rev [ Mon Jul 24, 2017 2:38 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates 7/21-7/23
publicenemy#1 wrote:
Wonder Wonder's run is insane.

It's going to finish with 3.91 IM :D & top 400m
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Mon Jul 24, 2017 2:46 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates 7/21-7/23
Apes should hit 100m tomorrow. Baby Driver needs a 3.6 multiplier from this weekend to hit 100m, which should happen. Girls Trip should hit 100m with summer weekdays but it might be frontloaded.
Author:  bl1222 [ Mon Jul 24, 2017 2:57 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates 7/21-7/23
publicenemy#1 wrote:
Girls Trip should hit 100m with summer weekdays but it might be frontloaded.


The Best Man Holiday did get an A+ in CinemaScore, but it was a sequel that caused its legs to be cut short as well as tough competition from Hunger Games: Catching Fire and Frozen (both targeting females). You do have a point about that because most African-American oriented films are frontloaded. However, Get Out broke that streak.

It only slipped 4.7% on Saturday. It actually increased 11% from its true Friday, which is very rare for female-oriented summer films. If it was going to be frontloaded, it would've dropped worse than Bad Moms and Think Like a Man Too yesterday.

While I will see how the week goes by to determine if it will hold well, it's not like anything is going to hurt it for the rest of the summer (weakest August since 2005). If you think it's going to be frontloaded despite its strong reviews and a rare CinemaScore of an A+, explain your reasoning on what will hurt Girl's Trip's run, please.
Author:  zwackerm [ Mon Jul 24, 2017 3:46 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates 7/21-7/23
Black movies are often front loaded for some reason. But you're right, it's probably going to have a Trainwreck type multiple.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Mon Jul 24, 2017 5:09 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates 7/21-7/23
I really wish Apes was doing better. Its a GREAT movie that's being rejected by audience.
Author:  tree and a half [ Mon Jul 24, 2017 5:34 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates 7/21-7/23
If it weren't for filling up the IMAX theatres with people duped into paying 150% for premium tickets, Dunkirk would have made $33m this weekend.

Outside of the Nolanite echo chamber, Dunkirk is not going to benefit from WOM. The older audiences who might be drawn to a WWII movie are going to be alienated by its anti-dramatic art film pretensions.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Mon Jul 24, 2017 7:32 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates 7/21-7/23
I thought that IMAX ticket prices are very close to regular tickets in US. Is that not the case? Because most people here claim that IMAX in US doesn't provide any boost when in comparison to 3D tickets. Out here the IMAX tickets are double the 3D tickets so the discrepancy seems HUGE.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Mon Jul 24, 2017 9:59 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates 7/21-7/23
Imax tickets are like $5+ more than regular tickets where I live.
Author:  redfirebird2008 [ Mon Jul 24, 2017 10:44 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates 7/21-7/23
tree and a half wrote:
If it weren't for filling up the IMAX theatres with people duped into paying 150% for premium tickets, Dunkirk would have made $33m this weekend.

Outside of the Nolanite echo chamber, Dunkirk is not going to benefit from WOM. The older audiences who might be drawn to a WWII movie are going to be alienated by its anti-dramatic art film pretensions.


Wait a second. You are claiming IMAX provided a $17 million boost to the weekend? That's not how boost works. It grossed $11.7m in IMAX. You cannot assume the film would have grossed $0 from those same people if not for IMAX.

Where I am, IMAX is about $5 more than a regular $10 ticket. That's a 50% boost. Even if you want to assume 100% boost, the movie still grosses roughly $6m from the same people that went to the IMAX shows. That means a total around $45m for the weekend if we remove the IMAX boost.
Author:  neo_wolf [ Mon Jul 24, 2017 10:57 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates 7/21-7/23
Jack Sparrow wrote:
I thought that IMAX ticket prices are very close to regular tickets in US. Is that not the case? Because most people here claim that IMAX in US doesn't provide any boost when in comparison to 3D tickets. Out here the IMAX tickets are double the 3D tickets so the discrepancy seems HUGE.


Here in tampa florida regular tickets are $8, imax is $16.
Author:  Rolling Thunder [ Mon Jul 24, 2017 2:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates 7/21-7/23
Looks like Girls Trip only dropped 25% Sunday. Great sign for it.
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