I said I didn't think it was losing.

Your post made a lot more sense when not taken as a direct response to the topic.

I'm just living up to my avatar.

I wonder how Pitch Perfect 3 will do. It'll have the holiday legs but I think there's more of an apathy for the series after the second one didn't really complement the first's reception.

I think Star Wars Episodes will keep loosing a chunk of audience each release.

I think they will take a break from episodes after 9 and just do standalones for a while.

Star Wars doesn't need casual audiences.

Frontrunner is Avatar obviously, drop off will be ridiculous. For most that was the first and only 3D film they ever saw.

^A nd what's to say they won't come back again if Cameron creates another spectacle. I mean there surely will be some audience drop-off but to say its going to be ridiculous is still absurd. I think it will still clear $500m with current inflation rate.

Avatar adjusts to 865 million, 500 million would be a 40%+ drop in admissions. Granted in the grand scheme of things it doesn't matter. But tell me another franchise that would love to lost 365 million domestically. But honestly I'm not even sure it'll 400 million.

But as you said, never count out Cameron. Knowing him the next Avatar will make 1.4 billion. Jurassic Park will certainly fall again.

Yea, how is that possible???

I don't think Avatar will do less than $500m, its not like the WoM on the last one was poor or only because of 3D. $400m is no longer what it used to be. Rogue One made $530m on brand name alone and I don't think Avatar's brand is that bad if the movie delivers and has good reviews.

But Avatar did get a huge bump in its earning based on 3D. From Deadline when Avatar crossed $600m:

"Breaking domestic down, nearly 81 percent of Avatar's gross is from 3D presentations. Normal 3D accounts for over 64 percent of the gross, while IMAX 3D accounts for more than 16 percent. That leaves the 2D theaters with an over 19 percent share of the gross."

So 80% of tickets were the more expensive 3D/IMAX ones. If the ratio stayed the same until the end (and I believe it did as this was far into its run so things don't change much) that's got to be at least $150-$200m more than if all of those were 2D tickets. 3D is not what is was back then. I don't see Avatar 2 getting more than 40% of tickets in 3D. That alone will cut it down by $100m.

Cutting down $100m still means it can do $500m

Which would still mean 40% drop.

I don't know. THIRD BASE!

Your initial statement made it sound worse. I think this can still do $550m-$600m if the movie is as good as I believe it will be. Also Cameron is not writing the story this time so the complaint from last movie is surely going to be mitigated to certain level. Unless this is pure trash highly unlikely I see it making $550m-$600m. Still not bad even if the drop from inflation is big.