bl1222 wrote:
Jack Sparrow wrote:
From an estimated $18m this needs a multiplier of 3.5 to get to $75m it won't be easy. The competition for action starts soon with Spidey and War should also attract a lot of adults who would seek action options.
More like $19m since its the 4th of July weekend. Though its Saturday increase might be muted, the Sunday should be strong for it (small increase for Saturday like in the low double digits to low teens, but a small decrease/increase for Sunday).
It won't be easy? Chances of that missing the mark is less than 1%.
Stay positive. It'll do it. Obviously, it will have tough competition but 22 Jump Street survived against Transformers 4, Dawn of the Apes and Lucy (42.3%, 33.7%, and 44.7%, respectively). It didn't start dropping hard until August. Spiderman: Homecoming is also from Sony and the studio fudging its 2nd weekend by like $1m could be in the cards. For example, the final Harry Potter opened huge, which caused it to fudge Horrible Bosses' second weekend.
Although a different comparison, I thought Wonder Woman wouldn't survive against The Mummy, Cars 3, Transformers, and Despicable Me 3; yet, it has not dropped over 43% in its own run. I compare that movie to those 4 because they all carry IMAX/3D screens. Losing those type of screens to those movies no matter how low they do, can still hurt its gross.
Now I understand you want to stay conservative, but its positive WOM will prevent it from missing the mark. Thank you for sharing your opinion, JS.
To all those hating on my post, I don't care if you do because I have a right to share my opinion like you all do.
I haven't seen the movie so I cannot comment on WoM from what I know it could still be mixed. Action movies are generally dropping harder and you cannot compare them to well received comedies, though you bring a good point of BD being from Sony could help. Chances of missing it are 1% seems a tad too optimistic but I don't want to go in debate, so let's just wait and watch, it has opened well enough to get there, I'd put the chance at 75% as of now.
I would not compare this to WW as well because that is having one of the best runs of the genre and NO ONE can be sure of that for BD just yet, well we can hope but its not a given. As for loosing screens this might not loose PLF screens but its showtimes would be hurt because while surprising OW its PTA will be below $2,000 on a day and the overall figure is not HUGE so it will start loosing regular screens/showtimes soon.
Lastly, who all are hating your post? I have never seen anyone saying that, but maybe I missed it. I would want you to keep posting more, opinions are opinions, good/bad, right/wrong doesn't really matter in "predictions" forum like this
