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 Baby Driver 75m+ total club 
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: Baby Driver 75m+ total club
Yeah I trust in Baby, I wondered why it sounded so familiar this year we also had another one TBB breakout.


Wed Jun 28, 2017 6:32 pm
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Speed Racer

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Post Re: Baby Driver 75m+ total club
I don't understand the complaints about the ending. The movie was perfect to me and deserves all the cash.


Thu Jun 29, 2017 12:10 pm
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Wallflower
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Post Re: Baby Driver 75m+ total club
Yeah this will do 75+ now. So happy an original film is going to do well. Maybe we can have nice things.


Thu Jun 29, 2017 3:19 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: Baby Driver 75m+ total club
I don't think OD confirms $75m+ specially when previews-to-OD ratio wasn't very healthy.


Thu Jun 29, 2017 9:06 pm
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Wallflower
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Post Re: Baby Driver 75m+ total club
Jack Sparrow wrote:
I don't think OD confirms $75m+ specially when previews-to-OD ratio wasn't very healthy.


It's going to be leggy, IMO. I think it pretty much guarantees it. With that nice of a sampling I don't see why it shouldn't do 25 or so over the 5-day opening and that's a lot of people to get the WOM going.


Fri Jun 30, 2017 2:34 am
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: Baby Driver 75m+ total club
I am not saying it cannot reach $75m, that gives it a VERY good chance but its not a LOCK.


Fri Jun 30, 2017 11:20 am
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Indiana Jones IV
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Post Re: Baby Driver 75m+ total club
It's a good movie, but I have no idea what word of mouth is going to be among normal folks.

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Fri Jun 30, 2017 12:58 pm
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Post Re: Baby Driver 75m+ total club
lesterg wrote:
It's a good movie, but I have no idea what word of mouth is going to be among normal folks.


It's got an A- with Cinemascore which is pretty great, and the crowd I saw it with seemed to dig it. I think WOM will be good.


Fri Jun 30, 2017 1:08 pm
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Wallflower
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Post Re: Baby Driver 75m+ total club
Plus under 25 gave it an A.


Fri Jun 30, 2017 3:37 pm
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Cream of the Crop
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Post Re: Baby Driver 75m+ total club
Baby Audience


Fri Jun 30, 2017 3:43 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: Baby Driver 75m+ total club
From an estimated $18m this needs a multiplier of 3.5 to get to $75m it won't be easy. The competition for action starts soon with Spidey and War should also attract a lot of adults who would seek action options.


Sat Jul 01, 2017 1:35 pm
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Post Re: Baby Driver 75m+ total club
Jack Sparrow wrote:
From an estimated $18m this needs a multiplier of 3.5 to get to $75m it won't be easy. The competition for action starts soon with Spidey and War should also attract a lot of adults who would seek action options.


More like $19m since its the 4th of July weekend. Though its Saturday increase might be muted, the Sunday should be strong for it (small increase for Saturday like in the low double digits to low teens, but a small decrease/increase for Sunday).

It won't be easy? Chances of that missing the mark is less than 1%.

Stay positive. It'll do it. Obviously, it will have tough competition but 22 Jump Street survived against Transformers 4, Dawn of the Apes and Lucy (42.3%, 33.7%, and 44.7%, respectively). It didn't start dropping hard until August. Spiderman: Homecoming is also from Sony and the studio fudging its 2nd weekend by like $1m could be in the cards. For example, the final Harry Potter opened huge, which caused it to fudge Horrible Bosses' second weekend.

Although a different comparison, I thought Wonder Woman wouldn't survive against The Mummy, Cars 3, Transformers, and Despicable Me 3; yet, it has not dropped over 43% in its own run. I compare that movie to those 4 because they all carry IMAX/3D screens. Losing those type of screens to those movies no matter how low they do, can still hurt its gross.

Now I understand you want to stay conservative, but its positive WOM will prevent it from missing the mark. Thank you for sharing your opinion, JS.

To all those hating on my post, I don't care if you do because I have a right to share my opinion like you all do.


Last edited by bl1222 on Sat Jul 01, 2017 2:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Sat Jul 01, 2017 2:22 pm
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Post Re: Baby Driver 75m+ total club
Couldn't get into this one at all sans the opening escape. Elfort doesn't have an ounce of charisma while the plot becomes more and more absurd as it goes along.

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Sat Jul 01, 2017 2:26 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: Baby Driver 75m+ total club
bl1222 wrote:
Jack Sparrow wrote:
From an estimated $18m this needs a multiplier of 3.5 to get to $75m it won't be easy. The competition for action starts soon with Spidey and War should also attract a lot of adults who would seek action options.


More like $19m since its the 4th of July weekend. Though its Saturday increase might be muted, the Sunday should be strong for it (small increase for Saturday like in the low double digits to low teens, but a small decrease/increase for Sunday).

It won't be easy? Chances of that missing the mark is less than 1%.

Stay positive. It'll do it. Obviously, it will have tough competition but 22 Jump Street survived against Transformers 4, Dawn of the Apes and Lucy (42.3%, 33.7%, and 44.7%, respectively). It didn't start dropping hard until August. Spiderman: Homecoming is also from Sony and the studio fudging its 2nd weekend by like $1m could be in the cards. For example, the final Harry Potter opened huge, which caused it to fudge Horrible Bosses' second weekend.

Although a different comparison, I thought Wonder Woman wouldn't survive against The Mummy, Cars 3, Transformers, and Despicable Me 3; yet, it has not dropped over 43% in its own run. I compare that movie to those 4 because they all carry IMAX/3D screens. Losing those type of screens to those movies no matter how low they do, can still hurt its gross.

Now I understand you want to stay conservative, but its positive WOM will prevent it from missing the mark. Thank you for sharing your opinion, JS.

To all those hating on my post, I don't care if you do because I have a right to share my opinion like you all do.


I haven't seen the movie so I cannot comment on WoM from what I know it could still be mixed. Action movies are generally dropping harder and you cannot compare them to well received comedies, though you bring a good point of BD being from Sony could help. Chances of missing it are 1% seems a tad too optimistic but I don't want to go in debate, so let's just wait and watch, it has opened well enough to get there, I'd put the chance at 75% as of now.

I would not compare this to WW as well because that is having one of the best runs of the genre and NO ONE can be sure of that for BD just yet, well we can hope but its not a given. As for loosing screens this might not loose PLF screens but its showtimes would be hurt because while surprising OW its PTA will be below $2,000 on a day and the overall figure is not HUGE so it will start loosing regular screens/showtimes soon.

Lastly, who all are hating your post? I have never seen anyone saying that, but maybe I missed it. I would want you to keep posting more, opinions are opinions, good/bad, right/wrong doesn't really matter in "predictions" forum like this :thumbsup:


Sat Jul 01, 2017 2:39 pm
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Post Re: Baby Driver 75m+ total club
Jack Sparrow wrote:

Lastly, who all are hating your post? I have never seen anyone saying that, but maybe I missed it. I would want you to keep posting more, opinions are opinions, good/bad, right/wrong doesn't really matter in "predictions" forum like this :thumbsup:


bl1222 wrote:
Algren wrote:
bl1222 wrote:
Well, awesome for BD!!!!!!!


I am baffled by comments like this one.


Thank you for sharing your opinion, but I disagree.


from the Early Friday #s thread


Sat Jul 01, 2017 2:45 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: Baby Driver 75m+ total club
Well he is also strong opinion-ed person, just that it was opposing this time and I didn't think it was to hate on you or your post(s). Algren makes those kind of general statements quite often ;)


Sat Jul 01, 2017 2:52 pm
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Post Re: Baby Driver 75m+ total club
Is bl1222 filling Libs' gap as the resident drama queen? ;)

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Sun Jul 02, 2017 4:59 am
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Cream of the Crop
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Post Re: Baby Driver 75m+ total club
Jonathan wrote:
lesterg wrote:
It's a good movie, but I have no idea what word of mouth is going to be among normal folks.


It's got an A- with Cinemascore which is pretty great

For context, Fate of the Furious got an A with Cinemascore.


Sun Jul 02, 2017 6:37 am
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: Baby Driver 75m+ total club
from this weekend (if the 21m sticks) it needs a 3.1 multiplier to reach $75m total.


Sun Jul 02, 2017 8:01 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: Baby Driver 75m+ total club
Yes I think with the long coming up and a strong IM over the weekend it should reach $75m. If it gets the amazing WoM that the reviews are suggesting then I wonder how close it will get to $100m. Its total by the long weekend should be above $40m.


Mon Jul 03, 2017 7:32 am
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Post Re: Baby Driver 75m+ total club
Opening week of $39 million, so it's already halfway there, and WOM seems strong. The next two weekends have two major blockbusters opening, but nothing else, so I think it should hold well. Either way, it's already having a very impressive run.


Wed Jul 05, 2017 11:05 pm
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Wallflower
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Post Re: Baby Driver 75m+ total club
It will be with Spider-Man at a lot of drive-ins so that will help it this weekend.


Thu Jul 06, 2017 2:02 am
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: Baby Driver 75m+ total club
$75m is a done deal, the lowest it should do is $80m now.


Thu Jul 06, 2017 4:57 am
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Post Re: Baby Driver 75m+ total club
What is so great about Baby Driver's gross? Is it because Edgar Wright has never had a film crack $40m?

Let's say it makes $80m total as Jack Sparrow claims. It cost $34m to produce. I mean, that is ookkaayyyy in terms of ROI, but not groundbreaking like people seem to be making out. It may break-even with the US gross, but doesn't seem to be lighting up the box office abroad. Why are people so damn pleased with its performance? It is average at best, and should have done better considering its stellar reviews.

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Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:03 am
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007
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Post Re: Baby Driver 75m+ total club
Wright has been super niche in the past, to see him turn a profit will lead to him getting bigger projects. But you're right Algren, it is hardly anything to go bananas over. Unless it does more than 100m. Then it would be time to get very excited

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Thu Jul 06, 2017 6:45 am
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