50% second weekend drop or less would mean a higher second weekend than BvS.
I think it'll be closer to 55% than 50%, hope I'm wrong!
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| Author: | Biggestgeekever [ Mon Jun 05, 2017 4:28 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion |
Weekend actuals are in and Wonder Woman delivered a $29,750,819 Sunday. Suicide Squad, despite having an opening day 41% bigger, had a first Sunday only $460K higher. Even more impressively, this was done despite Game 2 having a higher rating than last year. All the metrics we have suggest the film has fantastic WOM and this Sunday hold is the first sign at the box office of that. As we've seen in the past with TDK, Inception, and Avengers, blockbuster films that have a strong Sunday and great WOM often experience a low Monday decline as well. Adding to this, Wonder Woman's audience skews slightly female, and female driven films routinely have the best weekdays holds during the summer. All told, I would expect Wonder Woman to hold roughly 10% better than the norm, which based on the last few years, should be around 65%. Mon: $13.0M -56.30% Tue: $15.1M +16.15% Wed: $10.1M -33.11% Thu: $9.2M -8.91% Fri: $15.7M +70.65% Sat: $20.5M +30.57% Sun: $15.4M -24.88% 2nd w/e: $51.6M -50.02% |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Mon Jun 05, 2017 6:08 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion |
50% second weekend drop or less would mean a higher second weekend than BvS. I think it'll be closer to 55% than 50%, hope I'm wrong! |
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| Author: | Chippy [ Mon Jun 05, 2017 6:43 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion |
If it can achieve a 50% drop for Weekend 2... We could be looking at a pretty lengthy run. I think the Tuesday hold will be pretty great. |
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| Author: | Biggestgeekever [ Mon Jun 05, 2017 7:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion |
$350M could happen if my predictions pan out; Maleficent got a 4.3 multiplier off its 2nd weekend, which would give WW $370M. I don't see that happening because Maleficent played pretty strongly to family audiences (somehow) and WW will likely drop 50% in its 6th weekend thanks to Spider-Man: Homecoming, whereas Maleficent only dropped 27% in its comparable frame. |
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| Author: | Brian [ Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:17 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion |
-50% on Monday |
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| Author: | Algren [ Tue Jun 06, 2017 12:12 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion |
I do not think its 2nd Sunday hold will be that good. By then, a bit of a reality check will have set in and people will see that it's a pretty shit film. I expect over 30% drop. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Tue Jun 06, 2017 12:18 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion |
MoS had great first Sunday as well so I wouldn't go ahead and say that this is guaranteed to do a 3X multiplier. I think it will do $280m-$290m now (a little higher than my previous prediction). |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Tue Jun 06, 2017 12:21 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion |
Jack Sparrow wrote: MoS had great first Sunday as well so I wouldn't go ahead and say that this is guaranteed to do a 3X multiplier. I think it will do $280m-$290m now (a little higher than my previous prediction). Man of Steel's Sunday was Father's Day.... |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Tue Jun 06, 2017 12:23 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion |
That's still a great hold and I don't think it would have dropped more than 16% otherwise. |
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| Author: | Rolling Thunder [ Tue Jun 06, 2017 8:38 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion |
Spent awhile looking over IMDB reviews and found it interesting that many of the poor ones were actually from women. Found at least two dozen saying that while they appreciate a female superhero entry, they didn't understand all the apparent hype and critical praise. It's why I'm still not sold on this having super legs. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Tue Jun 06, 2017 11:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion |
I think the DC fans are just hyped that their is finally a movie that is critically praised. Marvel movies have been constantly doing great over OW with critical approval but they are decreasing in legs something I believe might happen with WW as well, it would still do better than SS and BvS multipliers. Mummy and Transformers is not easy competition for WW. |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Wed Jun 07, 2017 1:53 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion |
I'm predicting 15% increase for Tuesday, $13.5m. |
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| Author: | Laida [ Wed Jun 07, 2017 10:31 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion |
23% bump from Monday.  Deadline's early prediction for its second weekend is at 60M. Being optimistic is a good thing. 
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Wed Jun 07, 2017 8:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion |
Given that Tuesday's are big and WW is skewing more women (bigger weekdays) its not surprising that it increased. I don't think its heading for $60m second weekend, its Friday bump won't be big enough. |
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| Author: | Biggestgeekever [ Sat Jun 10, 2017 5:54 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion |
 When I wrote up those projections, I did forget about the game on Friday, so it's possible the film will have a stronger Saturday bump. If WW can get $53M this weekend, I think it will make it to $350M domestic. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Sun Jun 11, 2017 12:59 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion |
That Friday number is surely surprising. I wonder if it can maintain the momentum and go above GotG2. |
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| Author: | Chippy [ Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:33 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion |
Can it break into the Top 10 All Time 3rd Weekends? |
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| Author: | Algren [ Mon Jun 12, 2017 7:12 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion |
Algren wrote: I do not think its 2nd Sunday hold will be that good. By then, a bit of a reality check will have set in and people will see that it's a pretty shit film. I expect over 30% drop. Fuck...21.6%. 
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Mon Jun 12, 2017 7:15 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion |
I'm thinking 8.3m Monday, -29% from last Monday |
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| Author: | SolC9 [ Mon Jun 12, 2017 8:44 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion |
zwackerm wrote: I'm thinking 8.3m Monday, -29% from last Monday Not a bad prediction, though I wouldn't be surprised if it goes lower with game 5 of the NBA finals tonight. I'm expecting anywhere from 7.5 to 8.5M Monday, with another nice increase on Tuesday. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Tue Jun 13, 2017 12:02 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion |
Should easily stay above $8m mark on Monday. Can it do $10m on Tuesday? |
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| Author: | bl1222 [ Tue Jun 13, 2017 12:11 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion |
Jack Sparrow wrote: Should easily stay above $8m mark on Monday. Can it do $10m on Tuesday? Not impossible. |
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| Author: | SolC9 [ Tue Jun 13, 2017 12:38 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion |
Jack Sparrow wrote: Should easily stay above $8m mark on Monday. Can it do $10m on Tuesday? If it stays above 8M Monday, I'd say it has a great shot at 10M+ Tuesday. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Tue Jun 13, 2017 1:11 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion |
I think I got too excited with its weekend numbers. If it gets a drop similar to last Monday it will do $7.4m so yeah my initial thought of easy $8m is not as easy. If it crosses $8m then with a 22% (similar to first Tuesday) it gets $9.76m now the increase this Tuesday will surely be a bit better but the Monday drop might not be as good. But you never know the Sunday was just too brilliant and big, makes it difficult to predict Monday. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Tue Jun 13, 2017 7:32 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion |
Jack Sparrow wrote: I think I got too excited with its weekend numbers. If it gets a drop similar to last Monday it will do $7.4m so yeah my initial thought of easy $8m is not as easy. If it crosses $8m then with a 22% (similar to first Tuesday) it gets $9.76m now the increase this Tuesday will surely be a bit better but the Monday drop might not be as good. But you never know the Sunday was just too brilliant and big, makes it difficult to predict Monday. There are far more schools out now. |
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