Shyamalan's sequel to Split AND Unbreakable is opening on January 18, 2019, with McAvoy, Taylor-Joy, WILLIS AND JACKSON all returning: http://www.comingsoon.net/movies/news/8 ... s-for-2019

Unbreakable is odd. It was viewed as a disappointment when it opened, both creatively and financially, but it has grown a strong cult following over the years, and it adjusts to $155.3 million today. And Split was of course a pretty massive success, and most people seemed to get excited by the teased crossover at the end. So actually delivering on that crossover? Could be great.

Not sure yet how this will do, since there's not really any comparison point, but I do wanna get the ball rolling. The opening should be massive, at least, right?

Freddie Vs Jason is the best comparison I can think off but this is definitely not that.

$170m

$170m would be great.

I see an opening of around 50 with 3.0 multiplier which might just get it there.

Split currently has a 3.45 multiplier. I think the $50m opening makes sense. $10m more than Split is on the low-end but still doable. But I see no reason why its multiplier would take a dive. I mean, if the opening went up to something like $80m, then ok, the multiplier being lower makes sense, but I don't see the opening on that level. The franchise/level of interest has certainly evolved for the good since the days of Unbreakable's just over 3 multiplier, so I don't think we can use that as a basis.

I should have elaborated, I still don't fully trust Shyamalan again yet, hurting the quality of the film and so it's multiplier. Thegun predicted 50/130 in the other thread and that would then again be a bit too harsh I think.

You really shouldn't be using Thegun as your supporting argument.

I will go with a similar opening to Split sequel because I highly doubt there is too much of different audience for Unbreakable at this point that would rush for this mash-up.

$55m OW
the legs will depend on the quality but for now I will go with
$140m (just about same as Split)

Unbreakable is forgotten and irrelevant outside of its niche online stans. This will have to be marketed primarily as a SPLIT sequel, and on that basis it could be big.

First poster is out.

That poster is...not very good. It looks cheap, and it doesn't immediately register as a 'Split' sequel.

I like it. I don't believe this poster is meant for general release. Just for the netizens (i.e. people that already know what the film is). I mean, it is 8 months before release.

But I am not sure why Bruce Willis' character is chained up. He was a free man both at the end of Unbreakable and Split, so that's odd.

And McAvoy is fucking pumped.

they're all in a mental institution maybe? or, irrelevant marketing?

That poster is striking but it looks like it could have been fan made without its use of entirely stock footage.

The poster is great. End of.

They do all look like they're in a mental institution, and even if it's merely symbolic and not representative of the plot of the film, having the unbreakable strong guy in chain makes sense in such a scenario.

the fuck man?

I'm sorry I'm a boring predictor. My Batting Average is usually a league leader though. Historical data, no emotion. It's a simple concept that so many disregard here.

Unbreakable adjusts to a 51 opening. Split was well received, but it already broke out. The biggest question will be the marketing. Which aspect do they focus on. I'd say if it's greatly marketed, and what it's up against it can top Signs opening. The only real concern is Willis. His last 2 surefire hits were still hits, but very on the low side.

But I think it has enough positives to pass 50, with potential for more.

I think this is something the Rotten Tomatoes score will have a big effect on. The 'Shyamalan' name still hasn't been fully rehabilitated.

Loving the way they are rolling out the advertisement for this. It is gonna be huge. I’d love to see it top American Sniper.

60m OW / 200m domestic / 500m-600m WW

This is going to be big for January release

You're having a laugh, aren't you? This will be lucky to get a third of what American Sniper grossed.

It wont beat American Sniper.

I think it can match Split's gross or perhaps slightly higher.

I only meant on opening weekend and yeah it is unlikely, but we’ve seen crazier things happen.