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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
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Re: 2017 vs. 2016
What's impressive about this year so far I think is that no one movie has made over $160 million in the calendar year so far, while at this point last year The Force Awakens and Revenant already had, and Deadpool had cleared $300 million. The year is succeeding so far mainly because of more mid-sized hits, so the success is a little more spread out, which is, to me at least, much more enjoyable than one movie hogging all the fun.
That said, Beauty and the Beast is about to come in and a suck a lot of air out of the room, but I guess that'll be necessary to keep pace with Zootopia and Batman v. Superman from last year.
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Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:00 pm |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
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Re: 2017 vs. 2016
Magnus wrote: the success of Hidden Figures, Split, and Get Out is pretty significant for the movie industry. Those are the type of movies that normally people would wait to see after theaters via streaming/VOD but they've managed to get people to come out strong on OW and get strong legs.
I still believe the theater business has a solid future if it can create "event" type films. Generally, big-budget films based on known properties (i.e. Logan, B&B, etc.) make it easy to do that and the numbers at the box-office show that. But if we can still have a "tier 2" event level for small/medium budgeted (i.e. under 50m) like with Hidden Figures/Split/Get Out (i.e. films that do 125m-175m range), that would be a big boost for the industry. I think those three movies do show that so long as there is a quality product that gets people excited, they will race out to see it to avoid FOMO, even if it's not a "big screen movie" or whatever. Granted, "don't make shitty films" is a bit of a tall task, but this year has been abnormally high in quality films, and not just 2016 holdovers or randomly dumped movies - Split, Get Out, Lego Batman, John Wick 2, and Logan have all gotten really, really good reviews, and have all been financial successes. Another random 2017 thing of note - I did not realize that Lionsgate was the #3 studio for the year thus far, thanks to La La Land and John Wick. Granted, WB and Disney will overtake it by the end of next weekend thanks to Kong and Beauty, but LGF will also have Power Rangers, and that should help keep it ahead of Paramount and Sony for a few more months.
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Sat Mar 11, 2017 2:27 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22680 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: 2017 vs. 2016
Agree guys, seemed like only yesterday we were mourning they decide of the mid range film and this year so far has proved the contrary. Hope it continues.
Quality blockbusters outside the Oct-Jan corridor is all we ask for.
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Sat Mar 11, 2017 5:48 pm |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
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Re: 2017 vs. 2016
Looks like Kong's overperformance has 2017, at least for a few days, neck and neck with 2016. And Beauty and the Beast should push 2017 over the top, and give it a lead at least for a little while.
Also, another way of looking at the "more mid-range performers" mentioned earlier: last year Jan-Apr had five films make $280+ million that calendar period, but only THREE films finish between $100 million and $280 million. This year, it looks like Beauty and the Beast and maybe F8 of the Furious will cross $280 million, but this year already has nine films that have made between $100 million and $280 million, with Kong, Power Rangers, and maybe another overperformer still to come.
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Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:30 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22680 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: 2017 vs. 2016
The depth this year is impressive. We still also have Ghost in the Shell, Boss Baby and Life (though granted this may flop) with shots at 100m+
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What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
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Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:44 pm |
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Lumpy Space Princess
Angels & Demons
Joined: Fri Feb 24, 2017 8:03 pm Posts: 291
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Re: 2017 vs. 2016
Boss Baby will be like totally legi and give 2017 the edge bra.
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Sun Mar 12, 2017 9:06 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: 2017 vs. 2016
2017 and 2016 are neck to neck at this point but I believe March will make more than last year specially with the depth of movies. BvS's opening will be matched by BatB for sure and then we have Power Rangers and GitS, Chips, Life and The Boss Baby some of which should backload into April to make it strong. TJB will be matched by F8.
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Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:20 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22680 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: 2017 vs. 2016
This weekend was a nice shot in the arm for 2017, now 5.8% up on 2016 (and 17.1% up on 2015).
Next weekend will take a small hit as last year had BvS - but the BO depth at the moment will help keep the loss to a minimum. After that 2017 should be ahead through April.
_________________
What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
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Sun Mar 19, 2017 6:04 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: 2017 vs. 2016
This is March madness the BO is in fire right now. And it will only cool down slightly with next weekend. There are just so many good options this time around in the market much better than the situation last year with just a couple of movies hogging the market.
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Sun Mar 19, 2017 10:44 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67041
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Re: 2017 vs. 2016
MadGez wrote: The depth this year is impressive. We still also have Ghost in the Shell, Boss Baby and Life (though granted this may flop) with shots at 100m+ I expect those to make $100m combined.
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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Sun Mar 19, 2017 10:54 pm |
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Lumpy Space Princess
Angels & Demons
Joined: Fri Feb 24, 2017 8:03 pm Posts: 291
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Re: 2017 vs. 2016
boss Baby going to make bling for serious gurl. Alec Baldwin is very I. Right now Tha KS to laying Trump.
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Sun Mar 19, 2017 11:27 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: 2017 vs. 2016
Is the N not working on princess's keyboard?
Regardless I agree TBB should at the least clear $100m.
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Sun Mar 19, 2017 11:29 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67041
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Re: 2017 vs. 2016
If I had to guess, I'd say he is using his phone with predictive text while driving his car and getting a blowjob.
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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Mon Mar 20, 2017 3:25 am |
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Jiffy
Forum General
Joined: Sat Dec 18, 2004 2:27 pm Posts: 6145 Location: New York
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Re: 2017 vs. 2016
Algren wrote: If I had to guess, I'd say he is using his phone with predictive text while driving his car and getting a blowjob. They say girls are better at multi-tasking. I, for one, completely suck at it.
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Mon Mar 20, 2017 3:50 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67041
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Re: 2017 vs. 2016
I'm not buying Princess being a girl.
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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Mon Mar 20, 2017 4:37 am |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
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Re: 2017 vs. 2016
Huh, I thought April was a bust, but it ended up passing 2011 to grab the monthly gross record, which is pretty nuts since FF8, Boss Baby, and Beauty and the Beast were the only films to make over $38 million in the entire month. Those three alone make up about 53-54% of the month's gross ($446 million).
The coming month could be rough though. Guardians and Pirates 5 are the only $100 million locks opening, and the holdover are all spent. Baywatch and Alien Covenant should do well, but nothing is set in stone.
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Thu May 04, 2017 1:38 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: 2017 vs. 2016
It wasn't those three above $38m mark but the April releases Fate, Smurfs and GiS that only made $38m+ for the month.
If you look at the calendar gross you will understand why the month over-performed. TBB and BatB contributed $133m and $120m. There were a dearth of small movies and the depth has been pretty good specially with the trio of GO, Kong, Logan posting great holds throughout April, helping the Top 10 every week. I am not surprised that April did this well, the depth in the market this year has been pretty exciting to follow. We are not just tracking one blockbuster movie that sucks up the entire market instead multiple titles are doing great.
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Thu May 04, 2017 3:26 am |
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Biggestgeekever
I heet the canadian!
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:58 am Posts: 5192 Location: The Great _______
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Re: 2017 vs. 2016
Jonathan wrote: Huh, I thought April was a bust, but it ended up passing 2011 to grab the monthly gross record, which is pretty nuts since FF8, Boss Baby, and Beauty and the Beast were the only films to make over $38 million in the entire month. Those three alone make up about 53-54% of the month's gross ($446 million).
The coming month could be rough though. Guardians and Pirates 5 are the only $100 million locks opening, and the holdover are all spent. Baywatch and Alien Covenant should do well, but nothing is set in stone. May 2016 was pretty poor, too. It's only the 9th largest overall, so this year shouldn't be much worse if at all. The real drag is going to be August, which was a record breaker last year, but looks absolutely terrible this summer.
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Thu May 04, 2017 7:06 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: 2017 vs. 2016
The overall June is still weak as well and I think the 3.5% lead this year will shrink soon. The next weekend is going to be bad again.
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Sun Jun 11, 2017 1:58 am |
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dandeak2000
Angels & Demons
Joined: Mon May 15, 2017 11:56 am Posts: 271
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Re: 2017 vs. 2016
I think I'll add my opinion in now.
January 2017: $958.5M 2016: $1,036.4M 2015 (for good measure): $1,005.9M
3rd best January for all-time started the year off well with holdovers bringing in $330+ million of the $958.4M month. The highest new entry was Split with $81.13 million. While Rogue One, Sing and Hidden Figures climbed over $100 million for the month.
February 2017: $782.2M/$1,740.7M 2016: $799M/$1,835.4M 2015: $765.9M/$1,771.8M
A big haul for February still behind 2016's nearly $800M but 2017 has shown it can be a big year from the small hits that find a way to make mass amounts of money, like the biggest surprise of the year Get Out which ended up making $175+ million in its entire run.
March 2017: $1,168.6M/$2,909.3M 2016: $948.7M/$2,784.1M 2015: $704.5M/$2,476.3M
This was a game changer of a month for the industry beating the previous record by over $200 MILLION, that is amazing. The month had Logan, Kong: Skull Island, Beauty and the Beast, Power Rangers as well as smaller films like The Shack. It was a stacked month which did also show that movie that are good will get an audience even if the month is stacked.
April 2017: $811.6M/$3,720.9M 2016: $780.2M/$3,564.3M 2015: $778.3M/$3,254.6M
The year now had a 4.4% lead on 2016 and a 14.3% lead on 2015 after another record-breaking month. Although this was the first sign of slowing down because most films in the highest grossing for the month were March releases except for The Fate of the Furious.
May 2017: $838.7M/$4,559.7M 2016: $937.1M/$4,501.4M 2015: $1,074.5M/$4,329.1M
May was a bad month, the first bad one of the year. The gross is $250 million lower than 2015, the leads have gone down significantly too. Lead on 2016 is now 1.3% and on 2015 its 5.3%. Can it get any worse?
June 2017: $822.7M/$5,382.4M (23/06) 2016: $1,087.2M/$5,588.6M 2015: $1,233.7M/$5,562.8M
To keep a lead the month needs to do another $200 million which is actually likely, the top 10 gross for June 23rd was $40M assuming a similar Saturday and a $30 million we will be at $892.7M after another week of weekdays (similar to last weeks at about $79 million taking away Transformers 5 gross and adding about $7 million for Baby Driver first days) we have $971.7M as of 29/06. After that we can look forward to a massive Friday on 30th June as Despicable Me 3 and The House also drop into theaters likely sky rocketing the total to $1,031.7M+
June Predictions put year so far at 2017: $1,031.7M/$5,591.4M (just over what it needed to keep a lead) 2016: $1,087.2M/$5,588.6M 2015: $1,233.7M/$5,562.8M
What does everyone else think about this year so far?
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Sun Jun 25, 2017 8:02 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: 2017 vs. 2016
Its behaving similar to 2016 where the first three months were much stronger that summer from their previous records. I am hoping though July this year will be bigger than last year but then August looks so weak as well.
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Sun Jun 25, 2017 2:44 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32104 Location: the last free city
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Re: 2017 vs. 2016
July will be huge DM3 (250m+), SP:HC (300m+), Dunkirk(150m+) & WFPOA(175m+).
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Sun Jun 25, 2017 4:45 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22680 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: 2017 vs. 2016
Nice recap of the year so far dandeak2000 - please post more often! I agree - July will be much bigger, starting with this weekend's releases. Even Emoji Movie and Atomic Blonde will make bank.
August is weak but hopefully Dark Tower, Detroit, Logan Lucky and The Hitman's Body Guard are all hits.
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What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
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Sun Jun 25, 2017 8:21 pm |
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dandeak2000
Angels & Demons
Joined: Mon May 15, 2017 11:56 am Posts: 271
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Re: 2017 vs. 2016
2017 is now 0.4% behind 2016, but here are my predictions for July 2017
My guess is that July 2017 finishes with $1.2-1.3 billion
2017 up to 30th June = $5,614.8 million
2017 through July with prediction $6,814.8-6,914.8 million.
2016 through July = $6,960 million
With Spider-Man: Homecoming, Despicable Me 3, War for the Planet of the Apes, Dunkirk, Baby Driver, Valerian, Atomic Blonde, The Emoji Movie and continued success of Wonder Woman July is going to be a good month for the box office, likely the best of the year so far.
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Thu Jul 06, 2017 12:51 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: 2017 vs. 2016
2017 is still going to go below 2016 by July thanks to a weak June and August is also not looking big enough.
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Fri Jul 07, 2017 7:41 am |
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