14-16 July 2017 vs. 15-17 July 2016

2016

1. The Secret Life of Pets $50.8M
2. Ghostbusters $47M
3. The Legend of Tarzan $11.4M
4. Finding Dory $11.3M
5. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates $7.7M
6. The Purge 3 $6.2M
7. Central Intelligence $5.4M
8. The Infilltrator $5.3M
9. The BFG $3.8M
10. Independence Day: Resurgence $3.5M

Top 10/All total $155.4/$163.1

1. War for the Planet of the Apes $63M
2. Spider-Man: Homecoming $50M
3. Despicable Me 3 $18M
4. The Big Sick $11M
5. Baby Driver $8M
6. Wish Upon $7.5M
7. Wonder Woman $6.3M
8. Cars 3 $3.2M
9. Transformers: The Last Knight $3M
10. The House $2.8M

Top 10 predicted $172.8, predicted total $180M

I don't recall what else was released in 2016 and not bothered to look, but surely 2017 is going to lose?

October is pretty much dead.

And November and December have just tentpoles. And a few of them at that.

Beyond that, there are hardly any releases and nearly zero mid-tier releases.

November; Thor, Justice League and Coco with Bad Moms, Daddy's Home 2 and Murder on the Orient Express supporting.

December; Star Wars and Pitch Perfect 3 (I guess) with Ferdinand, Downsizing, Jumanji, Father Figures and Greatest Showman supporting.

Pretty much need everything to be a hit, but question marks on everything in supporting cast. Most probably won't crack $80m.

2017 is almost 5% behind 2016 and the gap will only increase in October. By November it will be 8% behind and I don't think November and December will be big enough to close that gap.

November and December should be bigger than last year but not enough to match or beat 2016's yearly total.

2018 will be reversed. Summer will be super strong while fall will suck ass.

Yeah 2017 had a mega first 4 months but 2018 isnt looking anywhere near as strong. Let's hope we see some breakouts.

Summer is stronger but it would be better if some of the June films spread out into July/August.