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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20302 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Mary Poppins Returns 250m+ Club
Mary Poppins Returns is set to be the family film of Christmas 2018, much like Sing was the holiday film of 2017. It doesn't hurt that the original Mary Poppins is Disney's most iconic and beloved live action film of all time.
Films that open on Christmas when it is on a Tuesday average a 5-5.5X multiple. With its family friendly nature, Mary Poppins can probably end up on the upper end of that range. With a 45 million opening weekend, it can hit 250m total.
Who's in? I know it's early, but you'll get more credit for joining early.
IN zwackerm Rolling Thunder MadGez Jack Sparrow Dil Riggs tree and a half Rolling Thunder
Out Lumpy Space Princess Algren
Last edited by zwackerm on Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:53 am, edited 8 times in total.
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Tue Mar 07, 2017 11:55 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67000
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Re: Mary Poppins Returns 250m+ Club
It's a tough one. I've only seen one image. I think I'd need to see a trailer before I commit. And I'm not sure about Emily Blunt in the role. This could easily be another [though higher-grossing] version of Nanny McPhee. $250 is quite high to commit to so early.
I'll wait for a trailer.
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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Wed Mar 08, 2017 12:34 am |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Re: Mary Poppins Returns 250m+ Club
I'm in. Hoping Dick Van Dyke will make a cameo.
_________________ Making Predictions Great Again!
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Wed Mar 08, 2017 4:04 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20302 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Mary Poppins Returns 250m+ Club
Rolling Thunder wrote: I'm in. Hoping Dick Van Dyke will make a cameo. He is! He's playing Mr. Dawes Jr.
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Wed Mar 08, 2017 6:08 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67000
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Re: Mary Poppins Returns 250m+ Club
Ugh. I hate these crappy, cutesy cameos from the original performers.
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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Wed Mar 08, 2017 11:39 pm |
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Lumpy Space Princess
Angels & Demons
Joined: Fri Feb 24, 2017 8:03 pm Posts: 291
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Re: Mary Poppins Returns 250m+ Club
46m/148m.
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Sun Mar 12, 2017 9:47 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36915
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Re: Mary Poppins Returns 250m+ Club
NO!!! $150m yes.
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Mon Mar 13, 2017 2:46 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20302 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Mary Poppins Returns 250m+ Club
Is anyone ready to join this after Jumanji and The Greatest Showman showed what big family movies and big musicals can do at Christmas?
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Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:32 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22646 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: Mary Poppins Returns 250m+ Club
It's doing 300m+
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Mon Jan 22, 2018 4:16 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36915
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Re: Mary Poppins Returns 250m+ Club
Yeah I now believe this will breakout specially with no biggie in December this month. IN.
Last edited by Jack Sparrow on Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:37 pm |
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Dil
Forum General
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2009 9:48 pm Posts: 8942 Location: Houston, Texas
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Re: Mary Poppins Returns 250m+ Club
If TGS can do $150M+ than I see no reason why this can't do $200M+ or even $300M+. This actually has an iconic brand behind it and a Star Wars free December on top of that. I'm IN.
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Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:40 pm |
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Riggs
We had our time together
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 4:36 am Posts: 13269 Location: Vienna
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Re: Mary Poppins Returns 250m+ Club
MadGez wrote: It's doing 300m+ This.
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Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:41 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67000
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Re: Mary Poppins Returns 250m+ Club
Dil wrote: If TGS can do $150M+ than I see no reason why this can't do $200M+ or even $300M+. This actually has an iconic brand behind it and a Star Wars free December on top of that. I'm IN. Those two points also apply to Annie, and that only made $85m in 2014. And The Muppets (though it was released in November), and that only made $88m in 2011. I don't wish to argue which is more iconic as I believe the differences won't amount to which makes more at the box office anyway. It'll be down to the nature of the film and how it is marketed. But I did just want to point out that "iconic brand" + "no Star Wars" isn't always a ticket to a hundreds of millions holiday release. Two-hundred and fifty million is a lot. I think it can do well, but a quarter of a billion is just too high for me.
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Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:35 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36915
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Re: Mary Poppins Returns 250m+ Club
Yes I agree that those points are applicable to two-three movies every December and shouldn't be considered here. TGS or Jumanji are not norm they are definitely exceptions. But I also see the recent performance of BatB for comparison and compared to that this isn't increasing (actually less than half of BatB) with a more favorable release date (December is still more lucrative holiday than March). I believe these live action Disney adaptations have a great will among general audience and even the very serious drama "Saving Mr. Banks" about bringing the character of Mary Poppins to life brought in $83m so I think it can easily do MUCH more than that.
While I hate to bring those but the original Mary Poppins adjusts to $306m from its original run with re-releases it comes to $700m+ (as per BoM) so there is a big potential for this to connect with audience.
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Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:39 pm |
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Thegun
On autopilot for the summer
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:14 pm Posts: 21628 Location: Walking around somewhere
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Re: Mary Poppins Returns 250m+ Club
It's possible. But does rely on a trailer. I'm not convinced Poppins has transcended the ages.
I like the 45-60 million opening. But the marketing will be key here.
_________________Chippy wrote: As always, fuck Thegun. Chippy wrote: I want to live vicariously through you, Thegun!
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Thu Jan 25, 2018 12:06 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 37886
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Re: Mary Poppins Returns 250m+ Club
I agree with thegun that I'm not sure how many millennials have seen Mary Poppins, although everyone knows who she is. The Disney animated films felt a lot more relevant to me growing up.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Thu Jan 25, 2018 2:39 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67000
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Re: Mary Poppins Returns 250m+ Club
I've not seen Mary Poppins. It has no special place in my heart, nor any of my family members. Not even the animated ones (to be honest, I did not even know there were animated ones until Shack just said it). Though, of course I know what the film is all about, and I've seen clips for it and stuff in "AFI's Top 100..." etc. That is precisely why I can't join this club. While I know it was a big film once upon a time, I have no first-hand experience of anyone loving it and holding it in high regard as a classic. But America has surprised me before, and I imagine the Bible Belt watching it at least once a year. But that's a part of America that I have no clue about.
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Thu Jan 25, 2018 2:44 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 37886
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Re: Mary Poppins Returns 250m+ Club
Algren wrote: Not even the animated ones (to be honest, I did not even know there were animated ones until Shack just said it). I meant the other Disney animated films like Lion King, Aladdin, etc.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:12 am |
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tree and a half
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Mon Jan 11, 2016 11:38 am Posts: 2084
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Re: Mary Poppins Returns 250m+ Club
I'm not excited about it, bit I'm still... in. ( Saving Mr. Banks, which is a great movie about the making of the original Mary Poppins, did surprisingly well at the BO - $83m DOM.)
Last edited by tree and a half on Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:18 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67000
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Re: Mary Poppins Returns 250m+ Club
Shack wrote: Algren wrote: Not even the animated ones (to be honest, I did not even know there were animated ones until Shack just said it). I meant the other Disney animated films like Lion King, Aladdin, etc. Ah ok. I wasn't sure, because Sparrow also mentioned "live action Disney adaptations", and I thought that to be a "live action Disney adaptation", you first would have to be an animated film.
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Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:21 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36915
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Re: Mary Poppins Returns 250m+ Club
Yep. I was wrong. I somehow thought there was an animation version as well.
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Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:25 am |
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tree and a half
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Mon Jan 11, 2016 11:38 am Posts: 2084
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Re: Mary Poppins Returns 250m+ Club
The original Mary Poppins was a mix of live action and animation.
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Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:04 am |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Re: Mary Poppins Returns 250m+ Club
I, too, question how the current generation will receive Poppins. Disney will market the heck out if it, though. I'm definitely in for $250m+.
_________________ Making Predictions Great Again!
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Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:16 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67000
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Re: Mary Poppins Returns 250m+ Club
tree and a half wrote: The original Mary Poppins was a mix of live action and animation. Nice try, but no.
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Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:50 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20302 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Mary Poppins Returns 250m+ Club
Mary Poppins is nowhere near as big among millenials as the Renaissance films like BATB and The Lion King. But its certainly on a level with older ones like Snow White, Cinderella and 101 Dalmatians in terms of how many kids have probably seen it. Not to mention just how iconic the soundtrack is. "A Spoonful of Sugar", "Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious", "Feed the Birds", "Let's Go Fly a Kite", and "Chim Chim Cheree" are all standards.
I agree that adjusted numbers aren't always the best for films like this, but the original Mary Poppins sold twice the amount of tickets in its initial run than Annie, and that's not even counting the re releases. It's on a completely different level than Annie.
The lowest I can fathom it doing is 150m.
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Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:58 am |
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