If the bikini chicks are hot, I'm definitely in.

Nah.

I think it might do great in some overseas territories, but I'm not ready to commit to this club. But if the second trailer delivers as well, I might join...

I think the Jump Street vibe is a good vibe to have. Not quite in but I think it will be a hit in spite of Efron's spotty box office besides Neighbors.

Guys, don't be fooled by Magnus's confidence. He is just blindly supporting Dwayne Johnson in that way that morons do. You know the ones. They call each other "bro" and think they're beyond cool.

I think it should do well 40 million probably. Max for it is San Andreas' 55m OW.

If it was a serious action blockbuster, yes. But it's not. It's a stupid attempt to shoehorn comedy into a film about lifeguards because a film about lifeguards sounds like it could be easily ridiculed. So, they want to be in on the joke ahead of the criticizers. But it all looks so crap.

Standard $30m opening, maybe even less, but it does have the advantage of being called Baywatch, so the curiosity is there, but I am sure it will have the worst legs ever.

Not in.

I mean if Kevin Hart and The Rock couldn't even do $40M OW with CI than I don't see why this would open significantly higher. Efron hasn't had a hit since Neighbors and I don't believe this can open to big numbers on the Baywatch brand name alone. They also need to put out a better trailer, because that first one isn't that funny at all.

The "Baywatch brand name" is a better joke than anything in the trailer.

You can't deny that it's a brand name.

You can say it's a really bad brand, though.

In cause it's rated R

It's like you've never seen the show. That's what Baywatch was, this is going to be eaten up by mainstream audiences when it plays in a theater. This definitely has the potential Magnus, I'm with you if you want to say Baywatch beats Pirates 5. I see both opening in the 40+ range.

This is not out grossing Pirates. Pirates will do 50 million OW if everything went wrong. Pirates 4 did 90 million without two of the three leads and coming off the horribly received At Worlds End. The teaser smartly avoidied Jack Sparrow so much it almost seems like he is not in it, so there won't be much Depp fatigue. People have enjoyed the Pirates films, it's not like Alice where no one liked the first.

I expect this to tear it up in Cali, Florida, and other beachgoing locales.

Out.

I don't think this has much upside potential personally. Movies based on hot bodies and sand and surf rarely do very well. There's a big difference between watching a guilty pleasure at home vs. in public.

It's definitely possible. Will make 170-185 Million total I think.

No way. I think there's a real chance this flops.

What is a flop for this?

Because Pain and Gain, which was probably way less accessible than this, made $50 mil total.

I'd say this can get to $80-100+ mil total.

Pain and Gain was a different genre.

I think a 20-ish opening and 60 total is very possible.

I'm also very interested to how big this willl be overseas, it was the most watched show globally for a few seasons

It wasn't marketed as that different than what this is, imo.

And I was bringing that up because it's one of the few slip ups the Rock has had since becoming THE ROCK, BOX OFFICE DRAW.

OUT. I'd go with CI opening for this. Effron has no pull here and Baywatch won't be as successful now with the Internet

Ummm, yeah, 25 years ago!!!

I don't see that logic of the lack of Depp in the trailer is a good thing. Fatigue or no fatigue, Depp has been the primary draw of Pirates. It really is a no win situation domestically because Pirates needs Depp, therefore not showing Depp enough will cause disinterest, but Depp fatigue also causes disinterest. Let's face it. Who is truly begging for another Pirates movie, six years after the last one left everyone feeling bored?

That being said, Baywatch will likely not outgross Pirates, unless something crazy happens. I do think there's a possibility for it to be close, which depends on how well each movie is received.