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| Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald predictions http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=81611 |
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| Author: | Algren [ Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:14 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald predictions |
That was 17 years ago and doesn't apply to FB1 and 2. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:18 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald predictions |
Jack Sparrow wrote: I am also basing the drop with HP2 falling from HP1 in OW and total. That was due to novelty. The first Potter was hugely hyped. The first FB was not. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:09 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald predictions |
zwackerm wrote: Jack Sparrow wrote: I am also basing the drop with HP2 falling from HP1 in OW and total. That was due to novelty. The first Potter was hugely hyped. The first FB was not. You do realize that the second HP movie opened almost close to HP1 right? I have mentioned this before but I feel like going back to Wizarding World with a new story after 6 years of break would have brought out some of the casual fans who might not come to see it OW for FB2. And while FB1 was good I don't think it would have generated additional interest to see FB2, specially when a person didn't watch the first in theaters. I don't see any reason for increase this time aside from the trailer being slightly better than FB1. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:11 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald predictions |
Algren wrote: That was 17 years ago and doesn't apply to FB1 and 2. Has the trend changed drastically from then? Also HP series doesn't have a comparison with (m)any franchise so I am just going with what I saw in the past. Plus I used "also" so this wasn't the only factor 
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:54 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald predictions |
Jack Sparrow wrote: zwackerm wrote: Jack Sparrow wrote: I am also basing the drop with HP2 falling from HP1 in OW and total. That was due to novelty. The first Potter was hugely hyped. The first FB was not. You do realize that the second HP movie opened almost close to HP1 right? I have mentioned this before but I feel like going back to Wizarding World with a new story after 6 years of break would have brought out some of the casual fans who might not come to see it OW for FB2. And while FB1 was good I don't think it would have generated additional interest to see FB2, specially when a person didn't watch the first in theaters. I don't see any reason for increase this time aside from the trailer being slightly better than FB1. I also believe the first Potter didn’t appeal much to adults. |
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| Author: | Dil [ Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:08 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald predictions |
I can definitely see this increasing off the last one, especially they continue to focus on the Hogwarts and Dumbledore aspects in the marketing. November is stacked this year, but based on the reception to that trailer this should easily be the most hyped film of the month. I would not be surprised if it got close to $100M OW and $300M domestic. 95/280 |
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| Author: | Barrabás [ Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald predictions |
I still see it decreasing from the original much like the HP films did. I know the arguments against that but it's not like the first Beasts was a beloved classic with amazing WOM. It was serviceable. The Hobbit films also decreased with each film. Clones decreased from Phantom Menace and Last Jedi decreased from Force Awakens. The pattern just seems to be for this type of fan-driven revisit to the franchise that the second installment always drops. The trailer views are also ok, but nothing to indicate huge pent up demand. I don't think Hogwarts alone is going to draw in massive crowds, and people associate Dumbledore with old wizard with a pointy hat, not Jude Law. The Harry Potter fanbase is huge and loyal, but what drives them is the titular character. This is the equivalent of a Star Wars spin off that only includes Yoda and a couple of scenes on Tatooine out of all the iconic elements of the series, and expecting that to make all the fans attend. With that in mind, I'm predicting a $70 million opening and a $200-$215 million total depending on how good it is. Overseas will probably do a solid $450 million plus. But WB should have made this a trilogy, not five films. |
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| Author: | MadGez [ Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:11 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald predictions |
I expect that it's gross will remain close to the previous films so will do 90%-$110% of the first film's gross. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:54 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald predictions |
zwackerm wrote: Jack Sparrow wrote: zwackerm wrote: Jack Sparrow wrote: I am also basing the drop with HP2 falling from HP1 in OW and total. That was due to novelty. The first Potter was hugely hyped. The first FB was not. You do realize that the second HP movie opened almost close to HP1 right? I have mentioned this before but I feel like going back to Wizarding World with a new story after 6 years of break would have brought out some of the casual fans who might not come to see it OW for FB2. And while FB1 was good I don't think it would have generated additional interest to see FB2, specially when a person didn't watch the first in theaters. I don't see any reason for increase this time aside from the trailer being slightly better than FB1. I also believe the first Potter didn’t appeal much to adults. And that's nothing much to add in what we were saying. Because its pretty much a locked that FB didn't appeal as much to families. Plus there are recent examples where franchises which are driven by huge fanbase see a slight decline in OW and total. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald predictions |
The first Fantastic Beasts was just a complete and utter non event. IT's not like tons of casual moviegoers saw it. It seems like it played only to the fans. So I don't think there are legions of casual moviegoers who saw the first and will skip this one. |
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| Author: | Cynosure [ Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:11 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald predictions |
I think 5 films is probably a bit too much for such a franchise. I expect fatigue to set in quite quickly. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Thu Mar 15, 2018 12:08 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald predictions |
zwackerm wrote: The first Fantastic Beasts was just a complete and utter non event. IT's not like tons of casual moviegoers saw it. It seems like it played only to the fans. So I don't think there are legions of casual moviegoers who saw the first and will skip this one. This is right. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Fri Mar 16, 2018 3:32 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald predictions |
^ And most likely the same will be true again but there will be slight reduction in fans who were excited to see a first movie after 6 years gap in Wizarding World. I am not even saying it will see a big decline but a slight one which will still be respectable but I don't see it increasing this time unless it has better legs than the last one due to lesser competition. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:13 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald predictions |
The teaser is on pace to beat the first’s teasers lifetime views in a week or less. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:33 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald predictions |
That's a good sign for my prediction!! |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald predictions |
Very interested in how this will do. Right now I'm thinking 93/242. |
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| Author: | Barrabás [ Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:25 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald predictions |
Cynosure wrote: I think 5 films is probably a bit too much for such a franchise. I expect fatigue to set in quite quickly. Yeah, a trilogy is fine but five is way too much. An HBO series set in the Wizarding World will probably happen at some point soon. It would be the perfect place for it. I don't think there's a long term future for films set in this world because films like this are so expensive and require so many people to go see them, and without Harry people will lose interest fast. Studios keep trying to imitate Marvel but that's not how most properties work. The key appeal with HP was always the central trio. |
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Tue Sep 25, 2018 2:25 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald predictions |
Haven’t seen it yet , but releasing a third trailer reeks of desperation. Wouldn’t be surprised by under $200M. It’s weird that so many other franchises have taken advantage of the rabid Potter fanbase, but Fantastic Beasts is somehow not one of them. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Tue Sep 25, 2018 4:08 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald predictions |
Flava'd vs The World wrote: Haven’t seen it yet , but releasing a third trailer reeks of desperation. Wouldn’t be surprised by under $200M. It’s weird that so many other franchises have taken advantage of the rabid Potter fanbase, but Fantastic Beasts is somehow not one of them. The first one released three trailers too. As has Ralph Breaks the Internet, Venom, The Grinch, Nutcracker, and a bunch of other movies. 3 is probably the most common number of trailers. |
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Tue Sep 25, 2018 4:17 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald predictions |
I’ve see one for Grinch, 2 for Venom, 2 for Ralph. Nutcracker should also be desperate enough to release 3. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Tue Sep 25, 2018 7:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald predictions |
Flava'd vs The World wrote: I’ve see one for Grinch, 2 for Venom, 2 for Ralph. Nutcracker should also be desperate enough to release 3. Well they exist regardless |
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| Author: | Para [ Wed Sep 26, 2018 1:26 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald predictions |
I think this film increases from the first one. Seems there are a few nostalgic elements in the new trailer and the marketing has been good up until now. I think it'll open to $100 million and will end its domestic total in the range of $270 million - $280 million. Overseas will huge. Worldwide total could be anywhere in between $900 million - $950 million imo. |
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| Author: | Barrabás [ Thu Sep 27, 2018 12:28 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald predictions |
Flava'd vs The World wrote: Haven’t seen it yet , but releasing a third trailer reeks of desperation. Wouldn’t be surprised by under $200M. It’s weird that so many other franchises have taken advantage of the rabid Potter fanbase, but Fantastic Beasts is somehow not one of them. Because it was all about the young trio. Twilight and Hunger Games recreated that with Kirsten/Robert Pattinson/Taylor Lautner JLaw/Liam Hemsworth/Josh Hutcherson while presenting their own "unique" fantasy worlds. Fantastic Beasts stars a bunch of weird, unattractive middle aged people. |
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| Author: | nghtvsn [ Thu Sep 27, 2018 9:22 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald predictions |
This final trailer seems to be a success to the aging potter base who were lukewarm to FB. The treats revealed in the trailer as well as the music seems to be a winner. Personally, I though the first was okay...film and trailer but this has me there day One. I'm sticking with my original prediction. It should increase from the first from what I've seen in the trailer. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Thu Sep 27, 2018 1:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald predictions |
The trailers have been better for this than the first, but there’s no curiosity factor this time. I still see almost the same as the first. |
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