This will only happen if 50 Shades does over 130m and Kong does below that. Valentine's Day will be on Tuesday for 50S like The Vow so its legs from OW will be better than the first but I don't see it doing more than The Vow's 125m, but who knows.

Ghost in the Shell may also be ruinous to everyone's top fives.

I hope it does even close to that well. It could very well not branch out at all and only appeal to it's core fanbase. Such a wildcard.

Predictions Overview

Total Gross Predictions




Top 5 Predictions


Box Office Questions




















Database of everyone's predictions:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

I went from the most negative player in the fall competition to the most positive in the winter one.

I'm feeling much better about this slate after seeing how strong Q1 was last year.

Wow! The top 5 has the SAME five films in every combination except the one with the Boss Baby. Looks like an easy bust for everyone if something else sneaks in! (Though idk what would)

I did not feel good about the #5 slot on the top 5 at all. 4/5 movies I felt ok, but there were way too many wildcards. I would not be shocked if Ghost In The Shell, Power Rangers, Boss Baby, Going In Style, The Case For Christ or even The Cure For Wellness sneaks in there. I debated each of those for #5.

The Cure For Wellness is so intriguing but so much of a wildcard. Gore Verbinsky (POTC)'s directorial follow up in the thriller/horror genre to The Ring. It's also Fox's only movie being released in the first 2 months of the year so I'm expecting it might be very good.

Power Rangers could pull a TMNT. TCFC s coming out right around Easter. Going In Style's demographic is consistent but combine that with Zach Braff directing and it could widen up the movie's appeal significantly. Boss Baby is DW and getting great reception so far but is probably getting lost in the Beauty and the Beast hype, and The Ghost In The Shell has an absurd amount of social traffic, and fanbase demand combined with Scarlett in an action movie, who knows.

I bet no one is going to get the top 5. Something that nobody expects always happens.

I feel like one of those factors is we're all overpredicting Logan.

I probably should have looked at Underworld tracking numbers before predicting here, and not used a 2016 film for question 10. LOL. I didn't look at anyone else's predictions either.

My optimism comes from a rushed look at only comparable films I knew right offhand, which would probably bias the numbers high. I'm a bit surprised initially that I'm such a high outlier on Rings, Circle, and Great Wall.

Biggest surprise to me is the diversity of films people thought would lose the most theaters in the third weekend.

MGKC - SUPERB graphics.

damn - how did i miss playing this agggh!!

Which film? Because The Founder and Gold are part of the game despite being 2016 films insofar as they received Oscar-qualifying runs. But I guess films such as Live by Night and Patriots Day are indeed not eligible.

lol I thought I was being a little pessimistic!

I had Hidden Figures on my list of 2017 wide openers and didn't even realize it already opened limited (and it didn't even occur to me to check).

Same here!! aggh

Weekly Ranking for January 15

Here's the first rankings out of the gate!



Total Gross Projections
Monster Trucks - $27 million
Underworld: Blood Wars - $30 million

Current Top 5
1. Underworld: Blood Wars - $23.9 million
2. Monster Trucks - $10.5 million

Current Answers to Box Office Questions
#4: Which sequel will fall the most from its predecessor (%-wise) - Fast 8, Fifty Shades Darker, John Wick: Chapter Two, Resident Evil: The Final Chapter, Smurfs: The Lost Village, T2: Trainspotting, xXx: The Return of Xander Cage, Underworld: Blood Wars? Underworld: Blood Wars (-61.6%)
#5: Which sequel will gross the closest to its predecessor (%-wise) - Fast 8, Fifty Shades Darker, John Wick: Chapter Two, Resident Evil: The Final Chapter, Smurfs: The Lost Village, T2: Trainspotting, xXx: The Return of Xander Cage, Underworld: Blood Wars? Underworld: Blood Wars (-61.6%)
#6: What will be the highest grossing film to not hit #1 on any of its weekends? Underworld: Blood Wars
#10: What will be the highest grossing film not predicted in the total gross section (including the backup films)? The Bye Bye Man

Now I really regret predicting 100 Million for A Dog's Purpose .

I know you love dog movies. But you're intelligent enough to see how obviously manipulative/purposefully edited to look bad the video is? If you were interested in seeing it, you shouldn't let this video deter you.

It can still reach $57m.

I saw all I needed to see though. The dog didn't want to go in. Was clearly going to drown. The people even panicked because they thought it was going to die. Obviously they don't show everything that happens in between.

It's not a nice clip, and I feel for the dog. But should the entire production be brandished because of one (or a few) people/decisions. With the bad wrap this film is getting it's as if the crew killed dogs every day for lunch then walked around in their bloodied skins. It is kind of ridiculous.

I get what you're saying. But it would just be hard to even enjoy the film knowing what went on.

"What went on" ... there it goes again. Nothing "went on". It was one incident, and an unfortunate one at that. Nobody went to the set that day with the intention of causing stress and even death to that dog. It was a risk to put him in the water, and sure, they should have called it off, but they put him in and unfortunately he could have drowned. I bet the dog carer sees this a lot and does the exact same thing, and the dog just gets on with it. On this particular occasion, it wasn't the right decision, and now the film is up the creek without a paddle. And the dog is absolutely fine, let's remember.

Exactly. It was the wrong decision. I'm glad the dog didn't die obviously. But it could have and it didn't even want to do it in the first place. Everyone can make up their own mind but I just don't know if I could watch the movie anymore.

The film looks shit anyway, so you're probably avoiding a stinker.

Weekly Ranking for January 22

Split kills!



Total Gross Projections
Monster Trucks - $35 million
Split - $105 million
xXx: The Return of Xander Cage - $49 million
Underworld: Blood Wars - $30 million

Current Top 5
1. Split - $40.2 million
2. Underworld: Blood Wars - $28.6 million
3. Monster Trucks - $22.6 million
4. xXx: The Return of Xander Cage - $20.0 million

Current Answers to Box Office Questions
#2: Which will gross more in total - the combination of Kong: Skull Island and Split, the combination of Logan and Power Rangers, or the combination of Fast 8 and Smurfs: The Lost Village? Kong: Skull Island and Split (currently $40.2 million)
#4: Which sequel will fall the most from its predecessor (%-wise) - Fast 8, Fifty Shades Darker, John Wick: Chapter Two, Resident Evil: The Final Chapter, Smurfs: The Lost Village, T2: Trainspotting, xXx: The Return of Xander Cage, Underworld: Blood Wars? Underworld: Blood Wars (currently -54.2%)
#5: Which sequel will gross the closest to its predecessor (%-wise) - Fast 8, Fifty Shades Darker, John Wick: Chapter Two, Resident Evil: The Final Chapter, Smurfs: The Lost Village, T2: Trainspotting, xXx: The Return of Xander Cage, Underworld: Blood Wars? xXx: The Return of Xander Cage (currently -25.6%)
#6: What will be the highest grossing film to not hit #1 on any of its weekends? Underworld: Blood Wars
#7: What movie will lose the largest number of theaters in its 3rd weekend? Underworld: Blood Wars (-1,604 theaters)
#10: What will be the highest grossing film not predicted in the total gross section (including the backup films)? The Bye Bye Man (currently $20.1 million)