Author |
Message |
Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
|
Will Silence top $50 million?
It is arguably Scorsese's least accessible film since Bringing Out the Dead and it does not have the starpower of DiCaprio.
However, Marty's name is a draw by itself now. Each of his last six films made more than $70 million. Four made more than $100 million. And it will have strong Oscar buzz.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
|
Sun Dec 04, 2016 11:10 am |
|
|
movies35
Forum General
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2004 1:53 pm Posts: 8626 Location: Syracuse, NY
|
Re: Will Silence top $50 million?
I haven't even seen the trailer yet and I've heard nobody talk about it, so I'm going to say no at the moment but it really depends on Oscar nods.
_________________ Top 10 Films of 2016
1. La La Land 2. Other People 3. Nocturnal Animals 4. Swiss Army Man 5. Manchester by the Sea 6. The Edge of Seventeen 7. Sing Street 8. Indignation 9. The Lobster 10. Hell or High Water
|
Sun Dec 04, 2016 4:31 pm |
|
|
Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
|
Re: Will Silence top $50 million?
Magnus wrote: it's one of the worst books ever and even Marty won't be able to save it. You realize that early word is very positive, right?
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
|
Sun Dec 04, 2016 5:00 pm |
|
|
David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
|
Re: Will Silence top $50 million?
Magnus having read and scorched-earth hating the Endō novel is a longstanding KJ curiosity.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
|
Sun Dec 04, 2016 5:03 pm |
|
|
Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67028
|
Re: Will Silence top $50 million?
No way. People won't care.
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
|
Sun Dec 04, 2016 9:10 pm |
|
|
Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
|
Re: Will Silence top $50 million?
I'm gonna say no, but barely. I see a ~$45 million total, give or take a couple million.
|
Sun Dec 04, 2016 10:23 pm |
|
|
stuffp
Keeping it Light
Joined: Wed Apr 08, 2015 8:06 am Posts: 11201 Location: Bright Falls
|
Re: Will Silence top $50 million?
Dr. Lecter wrote: Each of his last six films made more than $70 million. Enough for me to say yes.
|
Mon Dec 05, 2016 1:29 am |
|
|
Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67028
|
Re: Will Silence top $50 million?
stuffp wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Each of his last six films made more than $70 million. Enough for me to say yes. But that stat is a little misleading. His last six films were The Wolf of Wall Street, Hugo, Shutter Island, The Departed, The Aviator, and Gangs of New York. Five of which starred Leonardo DiCaprio and all six of which were attainable films. For comparisons to Silence, you need to be looking at Kundun and The Last Temptation of Christ, both of which didn't even make $10m. Now, I'm not for a second suggesting Silence will make less than $10m, but it's also not a given to make $70m.
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
|
Mon Dec 05, 2016 1:53 am |
|
|
stuffp
Keeping it Light
Joined: Wed Apr 08, 2015 8:06 am Posts: 11201 Location: Bright Falls
|
Re: Will Silence top $50 million?
Kundun, such a film I pretty much don't know exists...and yeah that did just 5.7m when being released with a same date as Silence. Hmm...yeah, Silence really might not do well taking that into account. Because Silence seems to be good, I still expect it to top 50m, but I'm a lot less certain about it now.
|
Mon Dec 05, 2016 2:15 am |
|
|
trixster
loyalfromlondon
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 6:31 pm Posts: 19697 Location: ville-marie
|
Re: Will Silence top $50 million?
nope - it's a nearly three hour movie about jesuit priests in 17th century japan. even if it wins BP, why would it make more than, say, spotlight?
_________________Magic Mike wrote: zwackerm wrote: If John Wick 2 even makes 30 million I will eat 1,000 shoes. Same. Algren wrote: I don't think. I predict.
|
Mon Dec 05, 2016 10:14 am |
|
|
Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
|
Re: Will Silence top $50 million?
trixster wrote: nope - it's a nearly three hour movie about jesuit priests in 17th century japan. even if it wins BP, why would it make more than, say, spotlight? Couldn't it appeal to Christians?
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
|
Mon Dec 05, 2016 11:53 am |
|
|
Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm Posts: 63026 Location: Tonight... YOU!
|
Re: Will Silence top $50 million?
Dr. Lecter wrote: It is arguably Scorsese's least accessible film since Bringing Out the Dead and it does not have the starpower of DiCaprio.
However, Marty's name is a draw by itself now. Each of his last six films made more than $70 million. Four made more than $100 million. And it will have strong Oscar buzz. Let's see... Wolf of Wall Street Shutter Island The Departed Aviator Gangs of New York those seem to have something in common... oh yeah and Hugo. which was literally propelled by being a kids movie around thanksgiving/christmas.
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
|
Mon Dec 05, 2016 12:25 pm |
|
|
Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm Posts: 63026 Location: Tonight... YOU!
|
Re: Will Silence top $50 million?
Algren wrote: stuffp wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Each of his last six films made more than $70 million. Enough for me to say yes. But that stat is a little misleading. His last six films were The Wolf of Wall Street, Hugo, Shutter Island, The Departed, The Aviator, and Gangs of New York. Five of which starred Leonardo DiCaprio and all six of which were attainable films. For comparisons to Silence, you need to be looking at Kundun and The Last Temptation of Christ, both of which didn't even make $10m. Now, I'm not for a second suggesting Silence will make less than $10m, but it's also not a given to make $70m. What Algren said. Look, people. I said it a few years ago. Leo is THE box office draw. (although The Rock may be making a move to join him)
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
|
Mon Dec 05, 2016 12:26 pm |
|
|
Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
|
Re: Will Silence top $50 million?
Chippy wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: It is arguably Scorsese's least accessible film since Bringing Out the Dead and it does not have the starpower of DiCaprio.
However, Marty's name is a draw by itself now. Each of his last six films made more than $70 million. Four made more than $100 million. And it will have strong Oscar buzz. Let's see... Wolf of Wall Street Shutter Island The Departed Aviator Gangs of New York those seem to have something in common... oh yeah and Hugo. which was literally propelled by being a kids movie around thanksgiving/christmas. But that is why I also did not put the benchmark at $70 million, but at $50 million. Of course Leo was a major draw. The deliberation here is whether Scorsese's name alone has become a draw by now. Afterall Tarantino carried The Hateful Eight to $50+ million without Best Picture buzz. There Will Be Blood, a very inaccessible film as well without major starpower, adjusts to $48 million. Close enough. And the difference between Spotlight and this? Scorsese is the difference.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
|
Mon Dec 05, 2016 12:51 pm |
|
|
Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm Posts: 48626 Location: Arlington, VA
|
Re: Will Silence top $50 million?
I don't think it will, no. Spotlight didn't even make $50M despite a Best Picture win and being way more accessible. Scorsese's name alone is not enough to push it over.
|
Mon Dec 05, 2016 5:54 pm |
|
|
Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
|
Re: Will Silence top $50 million?
I think There Will Be Blood and Munich are fair comparisons for why this should at least do $40+ million. Munich had Spielberg's name, but it was also hella dark, very long, and had no bankable stars. There Will Be Blood was basically a one-man-show mood piece with a bizarre and crazy ending. But both still managed to do well off the back of their director's prestige and Oscar love. Pretty sure Silence will be getting at least 6-7 nominations (including Picture and Director), possibly more if the tech branches really go crazy for it.
|
Mon Dec 05, 2016 7:33 pm |
|
|
Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
|
Re: Will Silence top $50 million?
That's why I believe that $50 million is a good benchmark for it. Scorsese's name and a bunch of Oscar noms should make sure that it will draw older crowds looking for high quality filmmaking.
As for the Spotlight comparison, I think being released in the heat of the awards season (as opposed to the beginning of November is a helpful factor). I'd also argue that Scorsese's name is a bigger draw than the entire cast of Spotlight combined.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
|
Mon Dec 05, 2016 7:55 pm |
|
|
trixster
loyalfromlondon
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 6:31 pm Posts: 19697 Location: ville-marie
|
Re: Will Silence top $50 million?
you guys overestimate how many people will go see a martin scorsese film based solely on his name. plus this is about as far away as you can get from typical scorsese fare like wolf of wall street or goodfellas (which, btw, made less than $50m - 25 years ago, yes, but still).
if this breaks $50m i'll start using capital letters again.
_________________Magic Mike wrote: zwackerm wrote: If John Wick 2 even makes 30 million I will eat 1,000 shoes. Same. Algren wrote: I don't think. I predict.
|
Tue Dec 06, 2016 12:33 am |
|
|
Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67028
|
Re: Will Silence top $50 million?
Exactly. Scorsese isn't a draw for this type of film. When people see his name in a trailer, they want to see some gangster stuff or Leonardo DiCaprio as well. If not, then people are not interested. If the trailer played but instead of showing Scorsese's name it showed Spielberg's name, then this film would make so much more.
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
|
Tue Dec 06, 2016 1:09 am |
|
|
i.hope
Defeats all expectations
Joined: Fri May 26, 2006 5:04 pm Posts: 6665
|
Re: Will Silence top $50 million?
How wide does this go though? If this is going to be a 2,000+ wide release, I can see this edging close to $50m. If not, $30m.
|
Tue Dec 06, 2016 7:33 am |
|
|
Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
|
Re: Will Silence top $50 million?
Yes but barely.
|
Wed Dec 07, 2016 12:06 am |
|
|
David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
|
Re: Will Silence top $50 million?
It sounds very, very non-commercial: long, deliberately paced, hyper-grim/violent, with a bit of Béla Tarr or at least Robert Bresson in its DNA. I read reports of people leaving halfway through in NYC and L.A. and people in the lobby outside guild screenings calculating how much time is left.
Believe it might be a Tree of Life- or Inherent Vice-type deal in regard to transitioning to mainstream play.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
|
Sun Dec 25, 2016 10:16 am |
|
|
Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23757 Location: Classified
|
Re: Will Silence top $50 million?
Nah. Doesn't seem to have much appeal as either a populist movie or an oscar contender. Only the most hardcore of Scorsesiacs will turn up.
|
Sun Dec 25, 2016 11:09 am |
|
|
bl1222
Veteran
Joined: Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:36 pm Posts: 3900
|
Re: Will Silence top $50 million?
No.
|
Mon Dec 26, 2016 12:50 pm |
|
|
Dil
Forum General
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2009 9:48 pm Posts: 8942 Location: Houston, Texas
|
Re: Will Silence top $50 million?
Nope. I agree with Algren maybe if it had Spielberg's or hell even Eastwood's names attached to it than it would do more, but since it's Scorsese and not the kind of movie general audiences usually expect from him than it's potential becomes more limited.
|
Mon Dec 26, 2016 4:17 pm |
|
|