Some data points compared to Rogue One...

Friday was 47% ahead of Rogue One. Saturday was 38% ahead of Rogue One. Sunday was 36% ahead of Rogue One. Monday was 22.5% ahead of Rogue One. Tuesday is about 16% ahead of Rogue One. Now Rogue One made $341.92 million after the first Tuesday. Here are the domestic totals depending on how much it stays ahead of Rogue One:

17% ahead = $662m total
20% ahead = $672m total
25% ahead = $689m total
30% ahead = $706m total
36% ahead = $727m total
41% ahead = $744m total
46% ahead = $761m total (this beats Avatar total)
51% ahead = $778m

Not sure where it's headed, but that Avatar goal does look pretty tough now. Should be interesting to watch regardless.

Wow, that's a disaster. Though I'm still expecting a week over 300M thanks to Wed and Thu getting more schools out.

There are some numbers out there if you look at Box Office Report on Twitter.

Daddy's Home was up 16% from last Monday to this Monday despite losing 700 theaters. It jumped 36% on Tuesday despite the great Monday number. That movie seems to be receiving some holiday boost at least. The much bigger boost comes next week for all movies, obviously.

Justice League and Daddy's Home 2 were up 41% and 36% from Monday respectively.

Yeah regardless of how other movies do TLJ should not have dipped. I am sure most movies will see an increase from Monday there is no doubt about that.

Um, what? Both THE FORCE AWAKENS and ROGUE ONE dropped.

But neither did so after plummeting 58% on Monday.

They did? I thought RO stayed flat.

Dan Murrel of Screen Junkies raises an interesting thought. So the primary critic of this film is the hardcore Star Wars fan, and I think amongst them, reception is poor, and thus they are the audience most likely to see this film over and over again, as such, this films legs warrant itself to a very different style of run.

So hold on to your moon booties space cadets, we are in for a bumpy ride

It has to outgross Rogue One by 50% every single day on average to reach a 3.5 multiplier. That does not seem very likely. I would not bet any money on that scenario.

I'm going to be generous at the moment and go with a 3.27 multi to reach $720m total, which assumes outgrossing Rogue One by 35% the rest of the way. I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt here. It could actually come up short of $700m. Even at 25% ahead of Rogue One the rest of the way, it finishes around $690m.

Comparing to 2006, and taking into consideration the rise of discount Tuesdays, this isn't a great hold. But it's still the 9th best Tuesday of all time, and the fourth best ever outside of the peak summer months (behind the last two Star Wars movies). It's still a massive movie performing larger than movies ever will, so it's gonna have some weird performances, especially since this daily pattern (where Christmas falls on an early weekday) is just a crappy one for movies in general. Even before the movie opened I was predicting a 65% second weekend drop, but with these daily holds it might be even worse than that. But the holiday weekdays after that should help save it. I think patience would be good here.

Yes, but the benefit of discount Tuesday is that more people go to the theater because tickets are cheaper. Considering work/travel, The Last Jedi is pushing a huge audience. That means discount Tuesday is less likely to have an effect - theaters are already full, so people are basically just getting a discount.



Rogue One's percentage goes up as it gets the holiday bump before The Last Jedi due to schools being out earlier with Christmas on Sunday instead of Monday.



What yearly increase in discount Tuesday? The increases in 2015 and 2016 for the equivalent Tuesday were close to identical.

2015 movies other than Star Wars:

+36%
+14%
+19%
+33%

2016 movies other than Star Wars:

+30%
+14%
+32%
+13%

Rogue One did not receive a huge boost this early in the run. Both films end up with a big boost in the second week. Rogue One jumped 82% on the second Monday from the first Monday. I'm very interested to see if Last Jedi can reach $40m on Christmas Monday. That would be a 85-86% increase from the first Monday.

As far as Discount Tuesday goes, there are a bunch of movies that jumped way over 30% yesterday. Rest of the Top 5 jumped over 40% each.

https://www.the-numbers.com/daily-box-office-chart

Keep in mind there is also the possibility that Christmas Day will be deflated from a normal Christmas Day because discount Tuesday is the next day. It may not happen that way, both days could be huge, but it's certainly possible.

Yeah, should be interesting to see how those two days play out. I think both have potential of going well over $30m each.

It's probably going to have a 70% drop for the 2nd weekend, due to the release pattern mostly. Pretty crazy.

$45m Thursday preview plus a 50% Sunday drop because of Christmas Eve. Bad recipe. But Monday the 25th to Monday the 1st should be some pretty awesome numbers for it.

I think a big problem for this film is the hardcore fan reaction going forward. They are going to boycott this...or they will come to their senses and this will get a randomly great fourth weekend drop