Last edited by Jmart on Sun Jul 30, 2017 11:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
Sat Jul 29, 2017 9:13 pm
Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36919
Re: Dunkirk 225m+ Club - NOLAN IS GOD
Sun Jul 30, 2017 2:35 am
redfirebird2008
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 4:13 am Posts: 2483
Re: Dunkirk 225m+ Club - NOLAN IS GOD
Magnus wrote:
MI5 is sort of the best comparison we can have for it now given the similar demo appeals, opening weekend grosses, and release date. MI5 got a 4.06 2nd weekend multiplier. A similar multiplier gets Dunkirk to about 189m. Keep in mind though that MI5 had some GREAT late legs. It dropped 40% on its 3rd weekend, 33% on its 4th, 29% on its 5th, and a strong Labor Day weekend. So I don't think Dunkirk is just set to copy it.
I currently think it will do about 3.9 2nd weekend multiplier, giving it a projected finish at 185m. WOM is good but this year has shown us that truly strong WOM showed clear signs after 10 days and this really hasn't shown any of that. Plus, I think it's late legs will be hurt when it loses its premium theater screens.
I would summarize and say its opening was "close to great" and its legs will be "good but unspectacular", giving it a overall performance of "better than good but not great". It had much more potential given Nolan and the critical acclaim and the open opportunity.
I also think that this film would have been significantly better positioned if it had the weekend before Thanksgiving slot. I think it still manages a similar opening but with the holidays and award boost, would have had the kind of legs it should of had. But WB wasn't going to put this ahead of JL.
It's not a popcorn crowd-pleaser like Inception. I think it's doing great when you look at it in context. Never should have opened to 50+ given the subject matter and lack of American stars to sell it to the public.
As far as premium screens are concerned, it has IMAX all the way to the end of August. It never really had a stranglehold on other PLF formats either. Valerian was playing in my local Regal RPX theater on opening day for both movies. Atomic Blonde took that screen this weekend. Not like Dunkirk was benefiting from that one at all.
Sun Jul 30, 2017 4:15 pm
redfirebird2008
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 4:13 am Posts: 2483
Re: Dunkirk 225m+ Club - THE DREAM IS DEAD
Magnus wrote:
The 50.5m OW is definitely impressive. The legs though are well....good but unspectacular.
Sub-3.7 multiplier for this, even with the 50m OW, just isn't great. Not for a film with its acclaim, the status of being the year's first major awards contender, etc. It's obviously not bad or disappointing but I won't say its great.
You assume it's going below 3.7 multiplier but that's a big assumption. It has matched Rogue Nation dollar for dollar from last Monday to now despite opening $5 million lower. Dunkirk's opening Sunday was $2.3 million below Rogue Nation's opening Sunday and Dunkirk quickly started matching Rogue Nation's daily grosses. For all we know, this is actually a sign that it will end up pulling ahead of Rogue Nation's daily gross as we move forward.
Interesting little fact. The IMAX percentage share actually went down this weekend, which is pretty much the opposite of what everyone expected. Seems to be playing stronger in regular formats than we thought. But I suppose that shouldn't be too big of a shock given the fact this skews very old at 75% over the age of 25 on opening weekend (and probably older during the second weekend). Old people don't give a shit about IMAX.
Last edited by redfirebird2008 on Sun Jul 30, 2017 4:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Sun Jul 30, 2017 4:26 pm
redfirebird2008
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 4:13 am Posts: 2483
Re: Dunkirk 225m+ Club - THE DREAM IS DEAD
Magnus wrote:
Yeah I'm a bit pessimistic of it going forward. You're right that there rae some signs of it doing better than MI5 (the biggest being that it's Sunday week to week is under 33% while MI5 was at 45%). Still, if it matches MI5 going forward, it gets to about 190m, so just 5m above my current projection.
But it could outperform going forward too. Rogue Nation's opening Sunday was $2.3m higher than Dunkirk's opening Sunday. A week later and Dunkirk managed to match it from Monday to Sunday despite that huge advantage for MI5 going into last Monday. If WB's estimate holds for Sunday, Dunkirk will actually be ahead of Rogue Nation by $450,000 in daily gross after trailing by $2.3m just a week ago. The trends are pretty positive and who knows...maybe it will make a run at $200m.
Either way I think Interstellar and Rogue Nation are good comparisons. Interstellar is a terrible daily numbers comparison due to the very different release dates in July and November. But it's a great comparison overall as a movie that opened around $50m and finished close to $190m. Rogue Nation is a good comparison because of the total and the release date.
Also Star Trek Beyond and Jason Bourne help provide some perspective too. Bourne was almost $9m ahead of Dunkirk after opening weekend and now is only about $300,000 ahead after Weekend 2. Dunkirk did much better on weekdays and the weekend to make up a huge amount of that difference in just 7 days. Bourne finished at $162m, so Dunkirk clearly going to blow well past that number.
Sun Jul 30, 2017 4:39 pm
tree and a half
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Mon Jan 11, 2016 11:38 am Posts: 2084
Re: Dunkirk 225m+ Club - THE DREAM IS DEAD
redfirebird2008 wrote:
Old people don't give a shit about IMAX.
Old people remember true 70mm and true IMAX.
Sun Jul 30, 2017 7:42 pm
Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36919
Re: Dunkirk 225m+ Club - THE DREAM IS DEAD
I like red's enthusiasm but he sounds so much like Excel with statements like "blow well past that number"
Mon Jul 31, 2017 1:30 am
redfirebird2008
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 4:13 am Posts: 2483
Re: Dunkirk 225m+ Club - THE DREAM IS DEAD
Jack Sparrow wrote:
I like red's enthusiasm but he sounds so much like Excel with statements like "blow well past that number"
Except it will blow well past Bourne's $162m. That's basic math looking at the trend of the two films after opening weekend. Just look at the daily numbers:
Again its not going to blow past that number if it does "only" $200m. Also I think I've said this before in Dunkirk comparisons they are totally different movies and genre even if the release dates are aligned.
Mon Jul 31, 2017 11:33 am
redfirebird2008
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 4:13 am Posts: 2483
Re: Dunkirk 225m+ Club - THE DREAM IS DEAD
Assuming it ends up around $182m...I don't consider a $20m difference to be chump change, especially when it's about a $30m turnaround from opening weekend.
Mon Jul 31, 2017 1:48 pm
Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36919
Re: Dunkirk 225m+ Club - THE DREAM IS DEAD
Its not for sure but its also not blowing past that number, but anyways this is kind of derailing the thread. I just found hints of Excel in some of your posts but I am glad you are excited for this movie
Mon Jul 31, 2017 7:45 pm
redfirebird2008
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 4:13 am Posts: 2483
Re: Dunkirk 225m+ Club - THE DREAM IS DEAD
Excel predicted the movie to gross something insane like $350m. I have never made any comments along those lines. If anything I underestimated it by a large amount, which is why I don't have a negative view of the film's performance like Magnus (who also massively overpredicted it just like Excel).
Mon Jul 31, 2017 7:47 pm
Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36919
Re: Dunkirk 225m+ Club - THE DREAM IS DEAD
Fine. I wasn't talking about that but fine. Let's move on. I don't want to derail the thread anymore than I already did.
As for the weekend drop I don't think it is great by any means and shows a slight frontloading and I don't see it getting a multiplier of 4 now.
Mon Jul 31, 2017 7:53 pm
redfirebird2008
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 4:13 am Posts: 2483
Re: Dunkirk 225m+ Club - THE DREAM IS DEAD
Sunday drop was not good and it's looking pretty weak on MovieTickets for Monday. Probably going to drop at least 60% today.
Mon Jul 31, 2017 7:56 pm
Thatguy
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2010 9:07 pm Posts: 435
Re: Dunkirk 225m+ Club - THE DREAM IS DEAD
As Nolan's most quirky and experimental film, the numbers make sense to me. Fairly good OW, good but unspectacular legs. The experimental nature of the film somewhat limits legs and wider audience draw.
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Fri Aug 04, 2017 12:51 pm
Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36919
Re: Dunkirk 225m+ Club - THE DREAM IS DEAD
Or you can put it that the WoM is not good enough plus the nature of the film limits its legs, having only Nolan's name cannot always produce HUGE numbers.
Sat Aug 05, 2017 5:53 am
tree and a half
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Mon Jan 11, 2016 11:38 am Posts: 2084
Re: Dunkirk 225m+ Club - THE DREAM IS DEAD
Thatguy wrote:
Nolan's most quirky pretentious
Fixed that for you.
Terry Garr is quirky.
Sat Aug 05, 2017 7:22 am
Thatguy
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2010 9:07 pm Posts: 435
Re: Dunkirk 225m+ Club - THE DREAM IS DEAD
Jack Sparrow wrote:
Or you can put it that the WoM is not good enough plus the nature of the film limits its legs, having only Nolan's name cannot always produce HUGE numbers.
Yeah exactly. Nolan made quite a few deliberate choices on the film that limit the WOM, wider audience draw, and thus the box office revenue.
tree and a half wrote:
Thatguy wrote:
Nolan's most quirky pretentious
Fixed that for you.
Yeah in many ways this is also true. I'm a fan of Nolan's, but this is his first film since Insomnia that has somewhat disappointed me. I still need a 2nd viewing to really be able to rate it or review it. My first viewing felt lacking and incomplete. Some scenes did have way too much pretentiousness.
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Sat Aug 05, 2017 1:40 pm
Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67027
Re: Dunkirk 225m+ Club - THE DREAM IS DEAD
I find it funny how it is labelled pretension because there is no handsome McConaughey or dashing DiCaprio to hold your hand and make you feel comfortable through the intense battle scenes.
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