Is there even any possible upcoming candidates? I don't even think Avatar 2 will come close.

The only thing I could see doing it that I can think of is Frozen 2. And who knows when that'll come out.

Infinity War Part 2 probably has a chance if it had everyone in it like Guardians etc.

Avatar 2 will do it IMO. I believe December in general will become HUGE and Avatar will be out after 8 years from the original. If it delivers something in the vain of T2 (not in terms of action but expanding the story) then I think it get to $600m.

Nothing in 2016 has a chance. Nothing besides VIII will get there in 2016. IX should get there too, but VIII will have to be good. I see nothing else doing it. JP5 will probably drop below 500. I'm skeptical Frozen 2 could increase. I think an original film that will surprise all of us is the next non SW film to gross 600.

I'm not saying it will (at least not yet), but I wouldn't be surprised if FINDING DORY will be the next one...

Well, Frozen sold in between the tickets of Beauty and Aladdin. So maybe Moana could sell betwen the tickets of Aladdin and The Lion King?

Will Jurassic World sequel do 600 million? Hm. I think it'll do less than the previous one.

There is a chance but its really low IMO. The first is beloved and all but it still Shrek 2 outdid it in terms of admissions and ticket sales. Plus there are just too many animation movies now in the market for this to happen.

If I have to bet my money on Avatar 2 and JW sequel I would say it would be the former for sure. I don't see JW sequel doing anymore than $500m-$550m, its not going to have the novelty now that the first movie is out.

There's a negative 100% shot of that happening,

I don't think the next non-Star Wars film to gross $600 million will be a sequel, since I just can't see Frozen 2, Avatar 2, Jurassic World 2, or Finding Dory making it to that point. But then again, I don't see any original films coming up that could explode to that level.

I am surprised with the lack of faith in Avatar sequel. The first did $750m total even without the re-release and $600m is still a good drop considering the inflation.

VIII is coming out in 2017.


The thing is Avatar is very movie of the moment though. It didn't spur out anything (merchandise, cartoons, quotes) that helps to keep it current to today's movie culture or culture in general. It's just remembered as a huge movie for its box office. Does anyone really crave for a sequel. And as the years go by sequels feel more and more redundant. Although if the movie ends up being great than anything can happen. But if it's on the level of the first movie then the sequel will have a hard time to even remotely match it.

Norm of the North

$600m is not really matching the first and given the inflation. I am sure that people will not see this one in 3D as much they saw the last movie still $600m would be almost 40% drop from admissions of the last one.

Considering you don't know the percentage of 2D/3D tickets Avatar sold and the percentage Avatar 2 will sell you can't claim the drop off percentage in total tickets sold. I believe some math would have Avatar 2 to outsell Avatar in pure ticket sales with only $600m total. But whatever ticket number Avatar 2 sells, considering everything else not working in favor of it $600 would still be huge and good for it, inflation considered.

$600 million would be tremendous for Avatar 2. But then again....it is James Cameron. One should never understimate him.

I was assuming about 60% 3D/40% 2D for Avatar 2. Avatar overall had 80% for first 8 weeks where it did $637m and I don't think that ratio went down afterwards as well. The remaining 20% ratio for Avatar 2 I am padding for inflation.

I am not saying here that it is a shoe-in for $600m as well but if something non-SW does it this one has the best shot than any other names suggested.

Avatar 2, especially if JC is able to add a new twist to the moviegoing experience.

The Avatar sequels are a huge misfire. Cameron won't get them done in time and he can't renege on a 3D feature (which, idk, most people are over now -- look at 3D TV sales). People don't remember the story or characters eight years later. It didn't have the cultural impact that Star Wars, ROTK, TDK, or Jurassic Park had.

I'd call $500m a "wild success" for it, honestly.

I don't know, the whole "no one remembers Avatar, what's an Avatar, who's James Cameron" shtick seems overplayed and mostly anecdotal. I didn't buy it in 2010, I'm not buying it now.

Avatar 2 will do at least 450. 600 million certainly isn't impossible.

There are several articles about it. I can't recall any of the characters' names, I have a phenomenal memory (one of my few attributes), and I saw it twice. Twitter being "indifferent" is not insignificant.

$700MM is a "phenomenon." $300MM is a "blockbuster." It will make money, but it will be on an Inside Out-level, not a Jurassic World-level.

Of course, Cameron could surprise again. We'll see. You can only have so many tricks up your sleeve. Everyone fails at some point.

I'm lol-ing at your avatar right now. The fuck?

The whole 3 sequels for Avatar thing is ridiculous. Cameron really should try to do something else.

Anything above 500 million for Avatar 2 would be great. They waited too long and it's not like people are begging for it.

Civil War: The Avengers proved it had 600 mil potential with the first film, and Civil War will tap into the same audience to see these superheroes on screen together and with an interesting emotionally resonant storyline between Captain America and Iron Man

I think once we get another trailer it'll start feeling like an Avengers sequel (probably teasing Spidey) so I think it'll do above Ultron. Close to the first Avengers would be surprising though.