World of KJ :: View topic - The Summer Movie Box Office Preview

Maverikk wrote:

I am assuming this is ready to be shown since it's up on the front page. 8-[

This is part one, and it deals with the upcoming May releases. Enjoy!

http://www.worldofkj.com/Mav-May.php

Dr. Lecter wrote:

Good all around. I agree on KOH, SW: ROTS, Monster in Law and some others.

The ones that I disagree the most on are:

Kicking and Screaming - There is a devoid of family flicks right now. This one will clear $100 million

Unleashed - This looks as the best US-Jet Li flick to-date and it stars Morgan Freeman. The trailer is effecttive. No way it'll make only $25 million, whereas his other movies like Cradle 2 the Grave, Romeo Must Die and Kiss of the Dragon all made more.

Crash - I think you're underestimating this one. Looks like the only real adult drama for the rest of the month. Remember Unfaithful that was released against Spidey's 2nd weekend and made $50+ million? I see something similar happening to crash. Opening of $10+ milion and a total of $40+ million.

Goldie wrote:

Curious to see how the Adam Sandler / Chris Rock / Burt Reynolds / Prison & Football - The Longest Yard will do.

Right there you have so many different factors that the swing on this movie could be pretty wide.

*******************************************************

Medium / High / Very high - ? BO ?

MG Casey wrote:

The only one I strongly disagree with is Kingdom of Heaven. It won't start off the summer.
(House of Wax will with a $50 million opening. I promise, I've got inside industry reports.)

Maverikk wrote:

MG Casey wrote:

The only one I strongly disagree with is Kingdom of Heaven. It won't start off the summer.
(House of Wax will with a $50 million opening. I promise, I've got inside industry reports.)

So you now agree that Sith is going to break the 300 million barrier? :razz:

And House of Wax is not going to breakout. I just staked my rep on it on the front page, which is exactly why I don't use my real name. \:D/

Maverikk wrote:

My thinking is this, on Kicking and Screaming. The family audience will all move onto Sith the following THURSDAY, and then Madagascar opens the week after that, etc... It's got one crowded weekend to do it's business, and then it's lights out.

Unleashed is going to go the way of xXx 2. The trailer looks crappy, even with Morgan Freeman in it.

I lowballed Crash, but I covered myself by saying WOM could drive the box office.

Scott Vasquez wrote:

35 million for Mindhunters? No, I think it won't even make it to 20, and since when do shelved movies ever do good? Ever?

Dr. Lecter wrote:

Scott Vasquez wrote:

35 million for Mindhunters? No, I think it won't even make it to 20, and since when do shelved movies ever do good? Ever?

Hero?

Dr. Lecter wrote:

Scott Vasquez wrote:

35 million for Mindhunters? No, I think it won't even make it to 20, and since when do shelved movies ever do good? Ever?

Hero?

Scott Vasquez wrote:

Dr. Lecter wrote:

Scott Vasquez wrote:

35 million for Mindhunters? No, I think it won't even make it to 20, and since when do shelved movies ever do good? Ever?

Hero?

I do not consider Hero a shelved movie. It just didn't find someone to distribute the movie. But Mindhunters was supposed to be released 2 years ago. I have been hearing that it is pretty, well, bad.

Hero, just like Phone Booth, just went through delays.

Goldie wrote:

Dr. Lecter wrote:

Scott Vasquez wrote:

35 million for Mindhunters? No, I think it won't even make it to 20, and since when do shelved movies ever do good? Ever?

Hero?

Big difference between Hero and Unleased.

Remember what Hero was compared to?

Unleased doesn't have any of that pre-talk.

Goldie wrote:

Dr. Lecter wrote:

Scott Vasquez wrote:

35 million for Mindhunters? No, I think it won't even make it to 20, and since when do shelved movies ever do good? Ever?

Hero?

Big difference between Hero and Unleased.

Remember what Hero was compared to?

Unleased doesn't have any of that pre-talk.

MG Casey wrote:

Maverikk wrote:

MG Casey wrote:

The only one I strongly disagree with is Kingdom of Heaven. It won't start off the summer.
(House of Wax will with a $50 million opening. I promise, I've got inside industry reports.)

Who says you have to have a 300 million movie to start off the summer? :wink: I'm still sticking with my $240 million prediction for Episode III.

Zingaling wrote:

Unleashed's theater count was dropped to 1,750.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/schedule/

Maverikk wrote:

Zingaling wrote:

Unleashed's theater count was dropped to 1,750.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/schedule/

What was it dropped from?

I'm feeling confident in my prediction for it.

Author:	Maverikk [ Tue May 03, 2005 10:27 pm ]
Post subject:	The Summer Movie Box Office Preview
I am assuming this is ready to be shown since it's up on the front page. This is part one, and it deals with the upcoming May releases. Enjoy! http://www.worldofkj.com/Mav-May.php

Author:	Dr. Lecter [ Tue May 03, 2005 10:35 pm ]
Post subject:
Good all around. I agree on KOH, SW: ROTS, Monster in Law and some others. The ones that I disagree the most on are: Kicking and Screaming - There is a devoid of family flicks right now. This one will clear $100 million Unleashed - This looks as the best US-Jet Li flick to-date and it stars Morgan Freeman. The trailer is effecttive. No way it'll make only $25 million, whereas his other movies like Cradle 2 the Grave, Romeo Must Die and Kiss of the Dragon all made more. Crash - I think you're underestimating this one. Looks like the only real adult drama for the rest of the month. Remember Unfaithful that was released against Spidey's 2nd weekend and made $50+ million? I see something similar happening to crash. Opening of $10+ milion and a total of $40+ million.

Author:	Goldie [ Tue May 03, 2005 10:42 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Summer Movie Box Office Preview
Maverikk wrote: I am assuming this is ready to be shown since it's up on the front page. This is part one, and it deals with the upcoming May releases. Enjoy! http://www.worldofkj.com/Mav-May.php Curious to see how the Adam Sandler / Chris Rock / Burt Reynolds / Prison & Football - The Longest Yard will do. Right there you have so many different factors that the swing on this movie could be pretty wide. ******************************************************* Medium / High / Very high - ? BO ?

Author:	Maverikk [ Tue May 03, 2005 10:44 pm ]
Post subject:
Dr. Lecter wrote: Good all around. I agree on KOH, SW: ROTS, Monster in Law and some others. The ones that I disagree the most on are: Kicking and Screaming - There is a devoid of family flicks right now. This one will clear $100 million Unleashed - This looks as the best US-Jet Li flick to-date and it stars Morgan Freeman. The trailer is effecttive. No way it'll make only $25 million, whereas his other movies like Cradle 2 the Grave, Romeo Must Die and Kiss of the Dragon all made more. Crash - I think you're underestimating this one. Looks like the only real adult drama for the rest of the month. Remember Unfaithful that was released against Spidey's 2nd weekend and made $50+ million? I see something similar happening to crash. Opening of $10+ milion and a total of $40+ million. My thinking is this, on Kicking and Screaming. The family audience will all move onto Sith the following THURSDAY, and then Madagascar opens the week after that, etc... It's got one crowded weekend to do it's business, and then it's lights out. Unleashed is going to go the way of xXx 2. The trailer looks crappy, even with Morgan Freeman in it. I lowballed Crash, but I covered myself by saying WOM could drive the box office.

Author:	MGKC [ Tue May 03, 2005 10:46 pm ]
Post subject:
The only one I strongly disagree with is Kingdom of Heaven. It won't start off the summer. (House of Wax will with a $50 million opening. I promise, I've got inside industry reports.)

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Author:	Maverikk [ Tue May 03, 2005 10:47 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Summer Movie Box Office Preview
Goldie wrote: Curious to see how the Adam Sandler / Chris Rock / Burt Reynolds / Prison & Football - The Longest Yard will do. Right there you have so many different factors that the swing on this movie could be pretty wide. ******************************************************* Medium / High / Very high - ? BO ? I think it will do well, but it's opening with stiff competition right with it. It's not going to bust out of the gate, so it's total with depend on how good and funny it is. If it's good, it's got weeks to clean up before the next potentially big comedy comes along.

Author:	Maverikk [ Tue May 03, 2005 10:53 pm ]
Post subject:
MG Casey wrote: The only one I strongly disagree with is Kingdom of Heaven. It won't start off the summer. (House of Wax will with a $50 million opening. I promise, I've got inside industry reports.) So you now agree that Sith is going to break the 300 million barrier? :razz: And House of Wax is not going to breakout. I just staked my rep on it on the front page, which is exactly why I don't use my real name. \:D/

Author:	MGKC [ Tue May 03, 2005 10:55 pm ]
Post subject:
Maverikk wrote: MG Casey wrote: The only one I strongly disagree with is Kingdom of Heaven. It won't start off the summer. (House of Wax will with a $50 million opening. I promise, I've got inside industry reports.) So you now agree that Sith is going to break the 300 million barrier? :razz: And House of Wax is not going to breakout. I just staked my rep on it on the front page, which is exactly why I don't use my real name. \:D/ Who says you have to have a 300 million movie to start off the summer? :wink: I'm still sticking with my $240 million prediction for Episode III.

Author:	xiayun [ Tue May 03, 2005 10:58 pm ]
Post subject:
Unleashed won't do lower than 30M. Jet Li has a following in the U.S. that he can bank on to show up in the opening weekend, as his recent movies all opened in the 13-18M range. As Lecter said, the trailer is very effective, and this looks to be his best reviewed film to date. It seems to actually have drama in it instead of just actions. I don't see how this could be his lowest gross since 1999, when his hollywood adventure just got started.

Author:	Dr. Lecter [ Tue May 03, 2005 11:22 pm ]
Post subject:
Maverikk wrote: My thinking is this, on Kicking and Screaming. The family audience will all move onto Sith the following THURSDAY, and then Madagascar opens the week after that, etc... It's got one crowded weekend to do it's business, and then it's lights out. Unleashed is going to go the way of xXx 2. The trailer looks crappy, even with Morgan Freeman in it. I lowballed Crash, but I covered myself by saying WOM could drive the box office. I think Kicking and Screaming will open to $25+ million, similar to Eddie Murphy's Daddy Day Care. Do you think that even with Madagascar and SW: ROTS such a family flick can get a multiplier of under 3? Unleashed is in no way comparable to xXx 2. It's not a sequel to a not-so well liked movie with the other actor playing the main character. In any case, as xiayun has said, all recent Jet Li movies opened to $13+ million and finished north of $30 million. Do you believe this one will break the trend despite having the best trailer of them all and having Morgan Freeman in it? I see it opening to at least $15 million and thereby guaranteeing a $30+ million gross.

Author:	The Scottie [ Tue May 03, 2005 11:28 pm ]
Post subject:
35 million for Mindhunters? No, I think it won't even make it to 20, and since when do shelved movies ever do good? Ever?

Author:	Dr. Lecter [ Tue May 03, 2005 11:30 pm ]
Post subject:
Scott Vasquez wrote: 35 million for Mindhunters? No, I think it won't even make it to 20, and since when do shelved movies ever do good? Ever? Hero?

Author:	The Scottie [ Tue May 03, 2005 11:33 pm ]
Post subject:
Dr. Lecter wrote: Scott Vasquez wrote: 35 million for Mindhunters? No, I think it won't even make it to 20, and since when do shelved movies ever do good? Ever? Hero? I do not consider Hero a shelved movie. It just didn't find someone to distribute the movie. But Mindhunters was supposed to be released 2 years ago. I have been hearing that it is pretty, well, bad. Hero, just like Phone Booth, just went through delays.

Author:	Goldie [ Tue May 03, 2005 11:34 pm ]
Post subject:
Dr. Lecter wrote: Scott Vasquez wrote: 35 million for Mindhunters? No, I think it won't even make it to 20, and since when do shelved movies ever do good? Ever? Hero? Big difference between Hero and Unleased. Remember what Hero was compared to? Unleased doesn't have any of that pre-talk.

Author:	xiayun [ Wed May 04, 2005 5:59 pm ]
Post subject:
The current estimated theater count for Unleashed is a little low though, only 1750. So I think PTA is a better measuring stick: Romeo Must Die - 2641 theaters, PTA $6821 Kiss of the Dragon - 2025 theaters, PTA $6569 The One - 2894 theaters, PTA $6604 Cradle 2 the Grave - 2625 theaters, PTA $6293 Hero - 2031 theaters, PTA $8864 Unleashed - ~1750 theaters, PTA ? Hero is a little different since it attracted somewhat broader audience. Other than that, the PTA has remained amazingly consistent. Lower theater count didn't increase its PTA, neither did high theater count hurt it. It's always in the $6000-7000 range. I expect the same for Unleashed. It should behave similar to Kiss of the Dragon.

Author:	Dr. Lecter [ Wed May 04, 2005 7:06 pm ]
Post subject:
I expect Unleashed's final theatre count to barely cross 2,000, just like KotD did. Then, as xiayun has said, a $6,000-7,000 PTA leading to an opening weekend of around $13-14 million.

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Author:	Dr. Lecter [ Tue May 03, 2005 11:35 pm ]
Post subject:
Scott Vasquez wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Scott Vasquez wrote: 35 million for Mindhunters? No, I think it won't even make it to 20, and since when do shelved movies ever do good? Ever? Hero? I do not consider Hero a shelved movie. It just didn't find someone to distribute the movie. But Mindhunters was supposed to be released 2 years ago. I have been hearing that it is pretty, well, bad. Hero, just like Phone Booth, just went through delays. I saw Mindhunters and it is a good movie. A really good one. Zingaling will second that It also stands at 83% at RT with 5 reviews in. This is already a good sign. Besides that, Hero DID have a distributor, Miramax, for a long long time and it was continously delayed.

Author:	The Scottie [ Tue May 03, 2005 11:36 pm ]
Post subject:
Goldie wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Scott Vasquez wrote: 35 million for Mindhunters? No, I think it won't even make it to 20, and since when do shelved movies ever do good? Ever? Hero? Big difference between Hero and Unleased. Remember what Hero was compared to? Unleased doesn't have any of that pre-talk. Were not talking about Unleased, were talking about Mindhunters.

Author:	Dr. Lecter [ Tue May 03, 2005 11:36 pm ]
Post subject:
Goldie wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Scott Vasquez wrote: 35 million for Mindhunters? No, I think it won't even make it to 20, and since when do shelved movies ever do good? Ever? Hero? Big difference between Hero and Unleased. Remember what Hero was compared to? Unleased doesn't have any of that pre-talk. You don't even know what the talk's about ](*,)

Author:	Dr. Lecter [ Tue May 03, 2005 11:37 pm ]
Post subject:
By the way, I don't expect Mindhunters to do very well either (unfortunately), but I heard it's getting decent marketing and the reviews are good, so I hope for about $25 million total.

Author:	STEVE ROGERS [ Wed May 04, 2005 1:14 am ]
Post subject:
I pretty well agree with everything in that Summary I read, but I do feel that kids are going to love the hell out of SW3 whether it's dark or light.. This movie is going to make an absolute fortune$$$$$$$......

Author:	Jeff 42 [ Wed May 04, 2005 4:17 am ]
Post subject:
MG Casey wrote: Maverikk wrote: MG Casey wrote: The only one I strongly disagree with is Kingdom of Heaven. It won't start off the summer. (House of Wax will with a $50 million opening. I promise, I've got inside industry reports.) So you now agree that Sith is going to break the 300 million barrier? :razz: And House of Wax is not going to breakout. I just staked my rep on it on the front page, which is exactly why I don't use my real name. \:D/ Who says you have to have a 300 million movie to start off the summer? :wink: I'm still sticking with my $240 million prediction for Episode III. Come on. It would need a worse 4-day opening to total gross multiplier than Reloaded had to end up with just $240 million.

Author:	zingy [ Wed May 04, 2005 8:57 pm ]
Post subject:
Unleashed's theater count was dropped to 1,750. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/schedule/

Author:	Maverikk [ Wed May 04, 2005 9:10 pm ]
Post subject:
Zingaling wrote: Unleashed's theater count was dropped to 1,750. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/schedule/ What was it dropped from? I'm feeling confident in my prediction for it.

Author:	zingy [ Wed May 04, 2005 9:16 pm ]
Post subject:
Maverikk wrote: Zingaling wrote: Unleashed's theater count was dropped to 1,750. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/schedule/ What was it dropped from? I'm feeling confident in my prediction for it. I think it was 2,000. But, before, I expected it to get 2,200. Now, it'll probably get 1,900-2,000 theaters.