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The Avengers: Infinity War predictions
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=75400		 Page 9 of 15
Author:  Dil [ Thu Apr 05, 2018 10:19 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Avengers: Infinity War predictions (now opening 4/27
MadGez wrote:
That is low balling!


True, but it looks like it's already pretty much destroying TFA in certain metric areas particularly unaided awareness and first choice numbers which is really impressive considering how HUGE the hype was for that.

Quote:
In unaided awareness, that portion of survey-taking where the person being polled brings up a movie title without being prompted, Infinity War has a huge 42, a score that’s higher than The Force Awakens (36, $247.9M), Black Panther (35, $202M), The Last Jedi (35, $220M), Jurassic World (24, $209M) and Avengers (26, $207M).

Other strong indicators: First choice where Infinity War has an enormous 38 which is also higher than The Force Awakens (22, $247.9M), Black Panther (25, $202M), The Last Jedi (23, $220M), and Jurassic World (17, $209M), and Avengers (21, $207M).
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Thu Apr 05, 2018 10:37 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Avengers: Infinity War predictions (now opening 4/27
Rev wrote:
Incredibles played like a superhero movie. A damn good superhero movie. All good superhero movies demand a sequel. Pixar made us wait 14 fucking years for it. Incredibles 2 is going to do gang buster business. I guarantee it! :P I’ll bet you anything lol


Incredibles played like a Pixar movie. It opened to $70m and ended with a 3.7 multiplier in face of direct competition The Polar Express in second weekend and then the combo of Spongebob/National Treasure. It could be called a movie about superhero's and does belong to that sub-genre and it did demand a sequel. But you know what, it was true for Nemo as well and Dory didn't reach $500m and thus this isn't as well. Pixar's appeal has only gone down since the days of original Incredibles.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Thu Apr 05, 2018 10:47 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Avengers: Infinity War predictions (now opening 4/27
Yeah those numbers cannot be reliable for such high numbers. Even if the tracking goes up there is certainly no true measure to track "how" high this will open. These numbers confirm that this will get past TLJ and get second biggest OW record at the very least.
Author:  MadGez [ Thu Apr 05, 2018 7:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Avengers: Infinity War predictions (now opening 4/27
Dil wrote:
MadGez wrote:
That is low balling!


True, but it looks like it's already pretty much destroying TFA in certain metric areas particularly unaided awareness and first choice numbers which is really impressive considering how HUGE the hype was for that.

Quote:
In unaided awareness, that portion of survey-taking where the person being polled brings up a movie title without being prompted, Infinity War has a huge 42, a score that’s higher than The Force Awakens (36, $247.9M), Black Panther (35, $202M), The Last Jedi (35, $220M), Jurassic World (24, $209M) and Avengers (26, $207M).

Other strong indicators: First choice where Infinity War has an enormous 38 which is also higher than The Force Awakens (22, $247.9M), Black Panther (25, $202M), The Last Jedi (23, $220M), and Jurassic World (17, $209M), and Avengers (21, $207M).


That's right. The numbers in comparison to TFA, BP, JW etc are mind boggling. That would indicate a gross much closer to $250m than $200m. I feel tracking is holding back because of the release date shift into April but it shouldn't have much impact, if at all.
Author:  Excel [ Thu Apr 05, 2018 8:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Avengers: Infinity War predictions
Best #s since TDKR except this has more fam appeal OHMAHGAH
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Thu Apr 05, 2018 9:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Avengers: Infinity War predictions
Excel wrote:
Best #s since TDKR except this has more fam appeal OHMAHGAH


I thought TDKR tracking numbers were topped by SW and BP, not entirely sure about TLJ.
Author:  Dil [ Thu Apr 05, 2018 10:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Avengers: Infinity War predictions
Considering how much early tracking overestimated AOU and CW I wouldn't be surprised if they were a little more conservative with this one. Sure BP was downplayed for the most part, but that tracking we got on the week it opened ended up being pretty close. It wasn't until then that people were throwing out numbers in the $160-$180M range.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Thu Apr 05, 2018 10:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Avengers: Infinity War predictions
Agreed but then again I don't think we got numbers for unaided awareness and that's the key for IW to blow up over OW.
Author:  Excel [ Thu Apr 05, 2018 10:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Avengers: Infinity War predictions
Jack Sparrow wrote:
Excel wrote:
Best #s since TDKR except this has more fam appeal OHMAHGAH


I thought TDKR tracking numbers were topped by SW and BP, not entirely sure about TLJ.


TFA Maybe, def, not BP or TLJ.

$31M from just midnights w/ no 3D in 2012 prices.

TDKR previews today would easily top $50m.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Thu Apr 05, 2018 11:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Avengers: Infinity War predictions
BD2 did the same numbers in November that year with no IMAX or PLF screens help in 2012 prices, so it best numbers since BD2. Also the numbers are not yet out so everyone was clearly talking about tracking numbers and not actual numbers.

Also I don't understand how Batman sequels (and arguably the best superhero trilogy) had lesser appeal than IW which has one more sequel to come next year?
Author:  Excel [ Fri Apr 06, 2018 12:02 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Avengers: Infinity War predictions
In a direct comparison to TDK films, Avengers has more appeal to families but lacks the stranglehold grip on the millennial crowd. Millennials are aging up as Gen Z arrives who is also more Marvel based.

If they are gonna do a TDK 4, its now or never.
Author:  BJ [ Fri Apr 06, 2018 12:54 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Avengers: Infinity War predictions
35m+ midnights

250m+ opening wknd


will still make less than BP
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Fri Apr 06, 2018 12:55 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Avengers: Infinity War predictions
TDK4 is never going to happen. NEVA!!!
Author:  BJ [ Fri Apr 06, 2018 12:57 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Avengers: Infinity War predictions
Jack Sparrow wrote:
TDK4 is never going to happen. NEVA!!!

I would prefer this
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Fri Apr 06, 2018 1:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Avengers: Infinity War predictions
BJ wrote:
Jack Sparrow wrote:
TDK4 is never going to happen. NEVA!!!

I would prefer this


We will now see a new reboot of Batman more than TDK4.
Author:  Rev [ Fri Apr 06, 2018 1:07 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Avengers: Infinity War predictions
BJ wrote:
35m+ midnights

250m+ opening wknd


will still make less than BP

It’s not doing 250m OW with only 35m previews.
Previews will have to top 40m+ IMO
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Fri Apr 06, 2018 1:27 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Avengers: Infinity War predictions
$35m+ but yeah it has to top $40m in previews to get past $250m OW.
Author:  Dil [ Fri Apr 06, 2018 1:40 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Avengers: Infinity War predictions
Yeah it will need at least $40M from previews to have a shot at the OW record IMO, but I think $50M would be more than enough to comfortably take it over.
Author:  Dil [ Sat Apr 07, 2018 5:49 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Avengers: Infinity War predictions
There is a new tv spot out that focuses heavily on Wakanda and it's pretty damn epic IMO. Marvel is smart how they are highlighting BP in the marketing while not making it feel forced. Obviously, Disney wasn't going to waste that chance and why would they? The movie is on it's way to being the third biggest film of all-time.
Author:  Barrabás [ Sun Apr 08, 2018 4:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Avengers: Infinity War predictions
Highlighting Wonder Woman didn't work for Justice League so I'm not sure it's the smartest idea for Infinity War. Audiences already had their fill of Wakanda and people don't want to see something again so soon; they'll want to see Infinity War because of the complete Marvel line-up. That's the real selling point for the film.

Of course it's still going to destroy the box office so who cares.
Author:  Passionate Thug [ Sun Apr 08, 2018 7:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Avengers: Infinity War predictions
New TV trailer is awesome and will bring a few fans of Black Panther but most may wait and see how much of the film is in Wakanda. If it's just the last battle that might not get enough for it's fan base to care. Civil War did give him a prominent set up role but I don't think he really helped that film one way or another. Spiderman was the real hook.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Mon Apr 09, 2018 1:07 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Avengers: Infinity War predictions
Even if the trailer is focusing more on BP its not entirely only for Wakanda fans which is why I think the strategy is good. Keep the jokes close to the place people loved and have been seeing multiple times.
Author:  Dil [ Mon Apr 09, 2018 1:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Avengers: Infinity War predictions
According to EmpireCity on BOT who has had really reliable tracking info in the past it is pretty much close to a lock that this beats TFA's OW record. Of course there is nothing official yet, but the signs are definitely there.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Mon Apr 09, 2018 2:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Avengers: Infinity War predictions
I feel the hype isn't as big as it was for TFA but the breakout of BP would get it more fans and that could get it past the $250m mark over OW.
Author:  BJ [ Mon Apr 09, 2018 11:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Avengers: Infinity War predictions
will not make more than 40m previews

250m+
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