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scores w/ proj.
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=7225		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  Ghostooze [ Sat Apr 23, 2005 2:02 pm ]
Post subject:  scores w/ proj.
King's Rasnom and Kung Fu Hustle screwed me.... :???:

http://www.boxofficefactor.com/calculate/Calculation.htm
Author:  Michael. [ Sat Apr 23, 2005 2:09 pm ]
Post subject: 
projections are a bit high for certain films imo, and quite low for A Lot Like Love.

Kings Ransom fucked me bigtime if i had nailed it i would have had 90% for the weekend :(

The Interpreter - (22.7 / 24) -- Accuracy: 94.58% << slightly high
The Amityville Horror - (10.6 / 13) -- Accuracy: 81.54% <<slightly high
Sahara - (8.9 / 8.3) -- Accuracy: 92.77% << a little low
A Lot Like Love - (9.5 / 8) -- Accuracy: 81.25% <<significantly low
Kung Fu Hustle - (8.7 / 7.5) -- Accuracy: 84.00% << a bit high?
Fever Pitch - (5.2 / 5.4) -- Accuracy: 96.30% <<fine
Sin City - (3.2 / 3.6) -- Accuracy: 88.89% <<fine
Guess Who - (3.1 / 3.3) -- Accuracy: 93.94% << fineish
Robots - (2.6 / 3) -- Accuracy: 86.67% << hmmm
King's Ransom - (5.6 / 1.9) -- Accuracy: 0.00% << i hated this movie before it even came out

OVERALL ESTIMATE ACCURACY: 79.99%

New Release: 58.61%
Still in Theater: 89.16%
Author:  MGKC [ Sat Apr 23, 2005 2:13 pm ]
Post subject: 
Scores with my projections:

The Interpreter - 81.78% ( 18.4 / 22.5 )
A Lot Like Love - 88.24% ( 9.5 / 8.5 )
King's Ransom - 68.42% ( 2.5 / 1.9 )
The Amityville Horror - 82.17% ( 10.6 / 12.9 )
Kung Fu Hustle - 95.52% ( 6.4 / 6.7 )
Sahara - 88.10% ( 9.4 / 8.4 )
Fever Pitch - 100.00% ( 5.7 / 5.7 )
Sin City - 91.67% ( 3.9 / 3.6 )
Guess Who - 93.55% ( 2.9 / 3.1 )
Robots - 84.38% ( 2.7 / 3.2 )

Score: 87.381%

Scores with other projections:

The Interpreter - 76.67% ( 18.4 / 24.0 )
A Lot Like Love - 81.25% ( 9.5 / 8.0 )
King's Ransom - 68.42% ( 2.5 / 1.9 )
The Amityville Horror - 81.54% ( 10.6 / 13.0 )
Kung Fu Hustle - 85.33% ( 6.4 / 7.5 )
Sahara - 86.75% ( 9.4 / 8.3 )
Fever Pitch - 94.44% ( 5.7 / 5.4 )
Sin City - 91.67% ( 3.9 / 3.6 )
Guess Who - 87.88% ( 2.9 / 3.3 )
Robots - 90.00% ( 2.7 / 3.0 )

Score: 84.395%
Author:  xiayun [ Sat Apr 23, 2005 2:13 pm ]
Post subject: 
Yeah, I went too low on A Lot Like Love, and I'll update that. I don't think it's significantly low though, since it certainly won't have a multiplier of close to 3. The movies in the genre, such as Fever Pitch, has an opening IM of 2.7-2.8.

I used last weekend's multiplier for Sahara and round up, so that should be close.

I don't see why Kung Fu Hustle should have a multiplier lower than its previous two weekends'.
Author:  zingy [ Sat Apr 23, 2005 2:21 pm ]
Post subject: 
The Interpreter - (19.3 / 23.5) -- Accuracy: 82.13%
The Amityville Horror - (10.3 / 13) -- Accuracy: 79.23%
A Lot Like Love - (10 / 8.5) -- Accuracy: 82.35%
Sahara - (8.5 / 8.3) -- Accuracy: 97.59%
Kung Fu Hustle - (11.2 / 7.5) -- Accuracy: 50.67%
Fever Pitch - (5.5 / 5.4) -- Accuracy: 98.15%
Sin City - (3.5 / 3.6) -- Accuracy: 97.22%
Guess Who - (3.4 / 3.3) -- Accuracy: 96.97%
Robots - (2.5 / 3) -- Accuracy: 83.33%
King's Ransom - (3 / 1.9) -- Accuracy: 42.11%

OVERALL ESTIMATE ACCURACY: 80.97%

New Release: 68.86%
Still in Theater: 86.17%
Author:  MovieDude [ Sat Apr 23, 2005 2:26 pm ]
Post subject: 
1 The Interpreter 23 23.5 97.87%
2 The Amityville Horror 11 13 84.62%
3 A Lot Like Love 13 8.5 47.06%
4 Sahara 9 8.3 91.57%
5 Kung Fu Hustle 12 7.5 40.00%
6 Fever Pitch 5,5 5.4 92.59%
7 Sin City 3.6 3.6 100.00%
8 Guess Who 3.3 3.3 100.00%
9 Beauty Shop 1.9 1.8 94.44%
10 King's Ransom 2.2 1.9 84.21%

Average
OVERALL (estimate) 83.24%
New Release 76.38%
Still in Theater 86.17%

Yeah, I got killed by Hustle and Love, but got two 100%s and was within .1 million of 100% for two more movies. Good thing I went low with King's Ransom. :)
Author:  Rev [ Sat Apr 23, 2005 2:31 pm ]
Post subject: 
The Interpreter - (18.5 / 23.5) -- Accuracy: 78.72%
The Amityville Horror - (10.2 / 13) -- Accuracy: 78.46%
A Lot Like Love - (8.5 / 8.5) -- Accuracy: 100.00%
Sahara - (7.6 / 8.3) -- Accuracy: 91.57%
Kung Fu Hustle - (8.5 / 7.5) -- Accuracy: 86.67%
Fever Pitch - (5.2 / 5.4) -- Accuracy: 96.30%
Sin City - (3.6 / 3.6) -- Accuracy: 100.00%
Guess Who - (2.5 / 3.3) -- Accuracy: 75.76%
Robots - (2.4 / 3) -- Accuracy: 80.00%
King's Ransom - (5.0 / 1.9) -- Accuracy: 0.00% :mad:

OVERALL ESTIMATE ACCURACY: 78.75%

New Release: 59.57%
Still in Theater: 86.96%
Author:  MGKC [ Sat Apr 23, 2005 2:33 pm ]
Post subject: 
xiayun wrote:
I don't see why Kung Fu Hustle should have a multiplier lower than its previous two weekends'.

Look at its first Saturday. It increased only 18%. This is like a second opening, so it should be similar. But I was way underpredicting its Sunday gross. I think it will be around $6.9 - $7.1 million.
Author:  MikeQ. [ Sat Apr 23, 2005 2:33 pm ]
Post subject: 
With xiayun's projections: 87.80%
With MG Casey's projections: 87.05%
With Vovanik's projections: 89.08%
Zingaling's projections: 88.85%

87% or more with all different projections. Looks good for estimates & actuals, unless EVERYONE is off with projections.

PEACE, Mike ;)
Author:  xiayun [ Sat Apr 23, 2005 2:35 pm ]
Post subject: 
The scores of Mike and I are close. Great job, Mike.
Author:  MikeQ. [ Sat Apr 23, 2005 2:37 pm ]
Post subject: 
xiayun wrote:
The scores of Mike and I are close. Great job, Mike.


Thanks! You too!

PEACE, Mike ;)
Author:  Michael. [ Sat Apr 23, 2005 2:37 pm ]
Post subject: 
did the projections get updated???
Author:  xiayun [ Sat Apr 23, 2005 2:40 pm ]
Post subject: 
Michael wrote:
did the projections get updated???


Yeah.
Author:  Michael. [ Sat Apr 23, 2005 2:41 pm ]
Post subject: 
xiayun wrote:
Michael wrote:
did the projections get updated???


Yeah.


ah ok; will re calculate later then :)
Author:  matatonio [ Sat Apr 23, 2005 3:03 pm ]
Post subject: 
Xiayun's Projections
OVERALL ESTIMATE ACCURACY: 77.42%

New Release: 51.40%
Still in Theater: 88.57%

MG Casey's projections
OVERALL ESTIMATE ACCURACY: 77.71%

New Release: 52.67%
Still in Theater: 88.44%

.....
Author:  The Scottie [ Sat Apr 23, 2005 3:22 pm ]
Post subject: 
The Interpreter - (20.0 / 23.5) -- Accuracy: 85.11%
The Amityville Horror - (10.8 / 13) -- Accuracy: 83.08%
A Lot Like Love - (10.1 / 8.5) -- Accuracy: 81.18%
Sahara - (8.6 / 8.3) -- Accuracy: 96.39%
Kung Fu Hustle - (10.5 / 7.5) -- Accuracy: 60.00%
Fever Pitch - (5.3 / 5.4) -- Accuracy: 98.15%
Sin City - (3.6 / 3.6) -- Accuracy: 100.00%
Guess Who - (3.0 / 3.3) -- Accuracy: 90.91%
Robots - (2.6 / 3) -- Accuracy: 86.67%
King's Ransom - (4.0 / 1.9) -- Accuracy: 0.00%

OVERALL ESTIMATE ACCURACY: 78.15%

New Release: 55.43%
Still in Theater: 87.88%
Author:  sako [ Sat Apr 23, 2005 3:38 pm ]
Post subject: 
The Derby

1 The Interpreter 16.8 23.5 71.49%
2 The Amityville Horror 9.6 13 73.85%
3 A Lot Like Love 10.8 8.5 72.94%
4 Sahara 8.6 8.3 96.39%
5 Kung Fu Hustle 8.2 7.5 90.67%
6 Fever Pitch 5.5 5.4 98.15%
7 Sin City 3.8 3.6 94.44%
8 Guess Who 2.8 3.3 84.85%
9 Robots 2.5 3 83.33%
10 King's Ransom 2.4 1.9 73.68%

Average
OVERALL (estimate) 83.98%
New Release 72.70%
Still in Theater 88.81%

Domestic VS International
Rank Film Predicted Estimate Est. Accuracy
1 The Interpreter 16.6 23.5 70.64%
2 The Amityville Horror 9.6 13 73.85%
3 A Lot Like Love 10.9 8.5 71.76%
4 Sahara 8.7 8.3 95.18%
5 Kung Fu Hustle 8.2 7.5 90.67%
6 Fever Pitch 5.5 5.4 98.15%
7 Sin City 3.8 3.6 94.44%
8 Guess Who 2.9 3.3 87.88%
9 Robots 2.5 3 83.33%
10 King's Ransom 1.9 1.9 100.00%

Average
OVERALL (estimate) 86.59%
New Release 80.80%
Still in Theater 89.07%


Survivor

Rank Film Predicted Estimate Est. Accuracy
1 The Interpreter 16.8 23.5 71.49%
2 The Amityville Horror 9.3 13 71.54%
3 A Lot Like Love 11.1 8.5 69.41%
4 Sahara 8.6 8.3 96.39%
5 Kung Fu Hustle 8.2 7.5 90.67%
6 Fever Pitch 5.3 5.4 98.15%
7 Sin City 3.9 3.6 91.67%
8 Guess Who 2.8 3.3 84.85%
9 Robots 2.4 3 80.00%
10 King's Ransom 2.4 1.9 73.68%

Average
OVERALL (estimate) 82.78%
New Release 71.53%
Still in Theater 87.61%


Apprentice
Rank Film Predicted Estimate Est. Accuracy
1 The Interpreter 17.1 23.5 72.77%
2 The Amityville Horror 9.6 13 73.85%
3 A Lot Like Love 11 8.5 70.59%
4 Sahara 8.8 8.3 93.98%
5 Kung Fu Hustle 8.5 7.5 86.67%
6 Fever Pitch 5.3 5.4 98.15%
7 Sin City 3.7 3.6 97.22%
8 Guess Who 3 3.3 90.91%
9 Robots 2.6 3 86.67%
10 King's Ransom 2.2 1.9 84.21%

Average
OVERALL (estimate) 85.50%
New Release 75.85%
Still in Theater 89.63%
Note not counting Beauty Shop
Author:  xiayun [ Sat Apr 23, 2005 4:48 pm ]
Post subject: 
I updated my projections based on BOM's Friday numbers:

1 The Interpreter - 23.2
2 The Amityville Horror - 12.7
3 Sahara - 8.8
4 A Lot Like Love - 8.2
5 Kung Fu Hustle - 7.5
6 Fever Pitch - 5.6
7 Sin City - 3.7
8 Guess Who - 3.3
9 Robots - 2.8
10 King's Ransom - 1.8
11 Beauty Shop - 1.8
12 The Pacifier - 1.8
13 Miss Congeniality 2: Armed and Fabulous - 1.6
14 The Upside of Anger - 1.1
Author:  Amos [ Sat Apr 23, 2005 4:59 pm ]
Post subject: 
The Derby
The Interpreter - (17.9 / 23.2) -- Accuracy: 77.16%
The Amityville Horror - (10.6 / 12.7) -- Accuracy: 83.46%
Sahara - (8.1 / 8.8) -- Accuracy: 92.05%
A Lot Like Love - (8 / 8.2) -- Accuracy: 97.56%
Kung Fu Hustle - (7.4 / 7.5) -- Accuracy: 98.67%
Fever Pitch - (5.3 / 5.6) -- Accuracy: 94.64%
Sin City - (3.7 / 3.7) -- Accuracy: 100.00%
Guess Who - (3 / 3.3) -- Accuracy: 90.91%
Robots - (2.5 / 2.8) -- Accuracy: 89.29%
King's Ransom - (4.7 / 1.8) -- Accuracy: 0.00%

OVERALL ESTIMATE ACCURACY: 82.37%

New Release: 58.24%
Still in Theater: 92.72%

UC6

The Interpreter - (19 / 23.2) -- Accuracy: 81.90%
The Amityville Horror - (11.4 / 12.7) -- Accuracy: 89.76%
Sahara - (8.1 / 8.8) -- Accuracy: 92.05%
A Lot Like Love - (8 / 8.2) -- Accuracy: 97.56%
Kung Fu Hustle - (7.5 / 7.5) -- Accuracy: 100.00%
Fever Pitch - (5.3 / 5.6) -- Accuracy: 94.64%
Sin City - (3.7 / 3.7) -- Accuracy: 100.00%
Guess Who - (3 / 3.3) -- Accuracy: 90.91%
Robots - (2.5 / 2.8) -- Accuracy: 89.29%
King's Ransom - (5.9 / 1.8) -- Accuracy: 0.00%

OVERALL ESTIMATE ACCURACY: 83.61%

New Release: 59.82%
Still in Theater: 93.81%

I think I did okay considering a 0% on King's Ransom.
Author:  Michael. [ Sat Apr 23, 2005 5:28 pm ]
Post subject: 
you did very well considering Kings Ransom Amos; which screwed me right over.
Author:  Anonymous [ Sun Apr 24, 2005 12:37 am ]
Post subject: 
With mine(my?) projections I have 98.45%.

Kinda useless to do with others, isn't it? As mine (my) will be much closer to the truth.


60%-70% :-(
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