This is the Halloween weekend, don't forget!

You know the drill.


I'll do the openers and The Grudge for now:

The Grudge - $21.2 million
SAW - $17.3 million
Ray - $11.1 million



PS: Can anyone sticky this? :wink:

Saw- $16.5
Ray- $11.2

The Grudge: $19.3m
Saw: $13.2m (hope it does more)
Ray: Not really sure

I think Ray will be #2. I think there's a lot wider audience for this movie and it will be very focused in the cities where those 1500 theatres are.

The Grudge - $20.7 (Only 4 off from what I predicted it's first weekend would be. )
Ray - $15.6
Saw - $8.9 (I honestly think this is vastly being overpredicted. I don't think much of the mainstream even knows about it. It's not had the same... buzz around it by everyday people that The Grudge had in the few weeks before it's release. Just a bunch of Internet-savvy people talking all about it. That's it. It may do a bit more, but not much. I see it having good legs, though.)

1. The Grudge - $16.1 (-54%)
-OK Halloween drop
2. Ray - $12.0
-Mystic River style
3. Saw - $8.8
-no one knows about it
4. Shark Tale - $8.7 (-37%)
-Slightly bigger drop due to Halloween.
5. Shall We Dance - $5.5 (-35%)
-Great legs
6. Friday Night Lights - $4.7 (-38%)
-This should slowly start dropping more due to high school football season ending
7. Team America - $4.2 (-40%)
-Nice drop
8. Ladder 49 - $3.7 (-33%)
-Nice drop as well

Actually, look at last year. On the Halloween weekend, all movies fell less than 30%.

Except Scary Movie 3. :wink:

True, I meant all other holdovers.

Or did I?

Technically, Scary Movie 3 was a holdover. That was very frontloaded, though.

Good point. I wonder how Halloween being on a Sunday is going to affect the weekend, instead of being on a Saturday.

And it also wasn't very good

It'll only make it better, if you ask me. Friday and Saturday are big days for movies, and makes it better to go Trick or Treating. Yet, the drops were so good for most movies. I think it being on Sunday this year will make the drops better, because Sunday is not one of those days where teens go out to watch movies. Well, most.

I think if people went to the movies, seen the poster for "Saw", and thought it looked good, it could make some money. For now, I'll spread the word on this film.

Here is the best comparison, I guess...

October 29-31 1999...

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/ch ... =44&p=.htm


The drops weren't all that great for some movies...

How the hell does no one know about saw Micasey?!

Are you metal? it's one of the most hyped and critically acclaimed horrors of the year!

I wish. Honestly, it's not the most hyped. The Grudge was definently more hyped than this is. People DO know about it, but it's not hyped like we all think. It's hyped on the internet, which makes a big difference. It will do good, because word is getting around. All my friends (who havent watched the pirated copy, hehe) are dying to see it.

1. The Grudge - $23 million (if it has a large decline, it will be the next weekend)
2. Saw - $15 million
3. Ray - $11 million
4. Shark Tale - $8 million
5. Shall We Dance? - $5.5 million
6. Friday Night Lights - $4.5 million
7. Team America: World Police - $4 million
8. Ladder 49 - $3.5 million
9. The Forgotten - $2.5 million (steady due to Halloween)
10. Birth - $2 million

Here are the daily numbers of the October 29 - 31 of 1999.

The Top Movies of Friday, October 29, 1999
1 House on Haunted Hill $5,420,000
2 Best Man, The $1,770,000
3 Double Jeopardy $1,650,000
4 American Beauty $1,175,000
5 Fight Club $1,155,000
6 Music of the Heart $1,115,000
7 Bringing Out The Dead $1,085,000
8 Story of Us, The $967,000
9 Sixth Sense, The $960,000
10 Three Kings $790,000
11 Three to Tango $750,000
12 Bats $650,000
13 Superstar $635,000
14 Random Hearts $425,000
15 Blue Streak $260,000
(source: thenumbers.com).

These are Saturdays (from the-numbers.com)

1 House on Haunted Hill $6,120,000 +12.92%
2 Best Man, The $2,820,000 +59.32%
3 Double Jeopardy $2,650,000 +60.61%
4 American Beauty $1,690,000 +43.83%
5 Music of the Heart $1,680,000 +50.67%
6 Bringing Out The Dead $1,500,000 +38.25%
7 Sixth Sense, The $1,495,000 +55.73%
8 Story of Us, The $1,340,000 +38.57%
9 Fight Club $1,230,000 +6.49%
10 Three Kings $1,170,000 +48.10%
11 Three to Tango $900,000 +20.00%
12 Bats $890,000 +36.92%
13 Superstar $875,000 +37.80%
14 Random Hearts $625,000 +47.06%
15 Blue Streak $390,000 +50.00%

And most important, here are Sundays (from the-numbers.com)

1 House on Haunted Hill $4,401,000 -28.09%
2 Best Man, The $1,618,000 -42.62%
3 Double Jeopardy $1,090,000 -58.87%
4 Music of the Heart $910,000 -45.83%
5 Fight Club $900,000 -26.83%
6 American Beauty $885,000 -47.63%
7 Bringing Out The Dead $864,000 -42.40%
8 Sixth Sense, The $709,000 -52.58%
9 Story of Us, The $663,000 -50.52%
10 Bats $581,000 -34.72%
11 Three Kings $580,000 -50.43%
12 Three to Tango $478,000 -46.89%
13 Omega Code, The $412,000 (N/A)
14 Superstar $364,000 -58.40%
15 Random Hearts $346,000 -44.64%
16 Blue Streak $231,000 -40.77%

Notice the small declines for Horror movies and harsh drops for Youth and Serious Adult movies.

House on the Haunted Hill managed a 2.91 multiplier despite bad reviews...this bodes really well for SAW.

Horrors Only:
The Grudge: 20.3
SAW: 11.7
Forgotten: 2.5
Surviving Christmas:2.4

I think last year, the weekend of Halloween is a better comparsion to 1999, when Halloween was on a Sunday. The reason why, is because the climate is the same as it was last year.
Surprise Big Hit-no one saw Scary Movie 3 almost making 50 mil, as no one saw the Grudge almost making 40 mil
The Next Weekend a Tentpole release is coming out- Last Year Revolutions (which was suppose to be good, but that is a different story) and this year the Incredibles.
In conclusion, I see the box office reacting the same way as it did last year, so I am going to say sub 30% for the top ten, except the Grudge.

1. The Grudge - $20.7
2. Ray - $12.4
3. Saw - $9.0
4. Shark Tale - $8.0
5. Shall We Dance - $6.3
6. Friday Night Lights - $3.9
7. Ladder 49 - $3.7
8. Team America - $3.6
9. Surviving Christmas - $2.7
10. I Heart Huckabees - $2.3
11. Birth - $1.8
** Sideways - $0.467