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April 22-24 Predictions
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=6964		 Page 1 of 5
Author:  Schlomo [ Sat Apr 16, 2005 12:35 pm ]
Post subject:  April 22-24 Predictions
Since Friday estimates just came out, I figured I'd make this thread...Well, get to it!
Author:  The Scottie [ Sat Apr 16, 2005 12:38 pm ]
Post subject: 
Get to what?
Author:  El Maskado [ Sat Apr 16, 2005 12:39 pm ]
Post subject: 
Interpretor 17.2 million
Kung Pow 2:Enter the Hustle 13.0 million if it only plays on 2400 screens
Author:  Schlomo [ Sat Apr 16, 2005 12:50 pm ]
Post subject: 
Scott Vasquez wrote:
Get to what?


Main Entry: pre·dict
Pronunciation: pri-'dikt
Function: verb
Etymology: Latin praedictus, past participle of praedicere, from prae- pre- + dicere to say -- more at DICTION
transitive senses : to declare or indicate in advance; especially : foretell on the basis of observation, experience, or scientific reason
intransitive senses : to make a prediction
synonym see FORETELL
- pre·dict·abil·i·ty /-"dik-t&-'bi-l&-tE/ noun
- pre·dict·able /-'dik-t&-b&l/ adjective
- pre·dic·tive /-'dik-tiv/ adjective
- pre·dic·tive·ly /-lE/ adverb
- pre·dic·tor /-'dik-t&r/ noun
Author:  Libs [ Sat Apr 16, 2005 12:57 pm ]
Post subject: 
The Interpreter: $19 million
A Lot Like Love: $10 million
Kung Fu Hustle: $10 million
King's Ransom: $5 million
Author:  zingy [ Sat Apr 16, 2005 12:58 pm ]
Post subject: 
The Interpreter: $18 million
Kung Fu Hustle: $11 million
A Lot Like Love: $8 million
King's Ransom: $6 million
Author:  Rev [ Sat Apr 16, 2005 1:02 pm ]
Post subject: 
The Interpreter $15m
Amityville $11.5m
A Lot Like Love $9.5m
King Fu Hustle $8.5m
Sahara $6.0m
King's Ransom $3.5m
.
.
.
.
Author:  Kris K [ Sat Apr 16, 2005 2:58 pm ]
Post subject: 
The Interpreter $18M
The Amityville Horror $10M
A Lot Like Love $8M
Author:  MovieDude [ Sat Apr 16, 2005 4:31 pm ]
Post subject: 
New openers:
The Interpreter 21 million
Kung-Fu Hustle 16 million
A Lot Like Love 9 million
King's Ransom 4 million
Author:  thompsoncory [ Sat Apr 16, 2005 5:17 pm ]
Post subject: 
*****EARLY PREDICTIONS*****

THE INTERPRETER - 19 Million
A LOT LIKE LOVE - 9 Million
KING'S RANSOM - 6 Million
KUNG FU HUSTLE - 4 Million
Author:  Schlomo [ Sat Apr 16, 2005 5:20 pm ]
Post subject: 
thompsoncory wrote:
*****EARLY PREDICTIONS*****

THE INTERPRETER - 19 Million
A LOT LIKE LOVE - 9 Million
KING'S RANSOM - 6 Million
KUNG FU HUSTLE - 4 Million


did you not see Kung Fu Hustle's PTA???
Author:  matatonio [ Sat Apr 16, 2005 5:21 pm ]
Post subject: 
hmmm, i feel like The Interpreter is going to be undepredicted
i see it easly passing $20M, but not by to much....
Author:  xiayun [ Sat Apr 16, 2005 5:28 pm ]
Post subject: 
With another +$30,000 PTA this weekend, there is simply no way for Kung-Fu Hustle to gross less than 10M next weekend, assuming it will be in +2000 theaters.
Author:  Schlomo [ Sat Apr 16, 2005 5:54 pm ]
Post subject: 
xiayun wrote:
With another +$30,000 PTA this weekend, there is simply no way for Kung-Fu Hustle to gross less than 10M next weekend, assuming it will be in +2000 theaters.


anyone else think Kung Fu Hustle could take #1??? I know it's a wee bit far fetched, but I'm feeling more buzz about it then I am about The Interpreter, not to mention I've seen SOOOOOOOO many ads for Kung Fu...
Author:  xiayun [ Sat Apr 16, 2005 6:06 pm ]
Post subject: 
Schlomo wrote:
xiayun wrote:
With another +$30,000 PTA this weekend, there is simply no way for Kung-Fu Hustle to gross less than 10M next weekend, assuming it will be in +2000 theaters.


anyone else think Kung Fu Hustle could take #1??? I know it's a wee bit far fetched, but I'm feeling more buzz about it then I am about The Interpreter, not to mention I've seen SOOOOOOOO many ads for Kung Fu...


I sensed a similar scenario with Hero but also different. I think people underestimated the potential of Hero, and people are underestimating Kung-Fu Hustle. However, the difference is that Hero's box office run was built on Quentin Tarentino and attracting his fanbase. Although Hero got great critic reviews, the general WOM was actually pretty poor, resulting big drops in the following weekends. Kung-Fu Hustle, on the other hand, had its buzz entirely built on the WOM from general people who saw it, so even though it will probably fall short of Hero's opening weekend, it will have better legs and actually become a real phenomenon.
Author:  El Maskado [ Sat Apr 16, 2005 6:23 pm ]
Post subject: 
Schlomo wrote:

anyone else think Kung Fu Hustle could take #1??? I know it's a wee bit far fetched, but I'm feeling more buzz about it then I am about The Interpreter, not to mention I've seen SOOOOOOOO many ads for Kung Fu...


I would so love to see Kung Fu Hustle at number 1. If they add an extra 400 theaters, I would think it would
Imagine the headlines if Hustle is number 1
"It doesnt take an Interpreter to do the Hustle"
"Who needs an Interpreter when you can fight yoru battle with Kung Fu"
"The Interpreter gets beat up by Kung Fu"

Help me out here with the creative puns people
Author:  Magic Mike [ Sat Apr 16, 2005 6:58 pm ]
Post subject: 
My rough predictions (nothing final yet):

THE INTERPRETER - 13 Million
A LOT LIKE LOVE - 9 Million
KING'S RANSOM - 6 Million
KUNG FU HUSTLE - 4.5-5 Million
Author:  MovieDude [ Sat Apr 16, 2005 7:35 pm ]
Post subject: 
Kidman Hustled Out of #1
Audiences do the Hustle
Subtitles Rule over Interpreter

Hehe, it'd be a great day. And with the WOM, I'm not so much thinking of the opening, but the total. I honestly think this could break 100 million total, and I'd say it'd do so easy if it were PG-13
Author:  movies35 [ Sat Apr 16, 2005 8:25 pm ]
Post subject: 
THE INTERPRETER - $26 million (I really think this is going to be huge, it should do numbers like THE BOURNE IDENTITY)
A LOT LIKE LOVE - $7 (Though I want to see it, I don't think it'll do good. Should do a bit better then DOWN TO YOU)
KING'S RANSOM - $18 million (It's an urban comedy ... nuff said)
KUNG FU HUSTLE - $14 million (It's been doing great, has awesome TV spots and great trailers. Don't see why this would do bad)
Author:  DP07 [ Sat Apr 16, 2005 9:29 pm ]
Post subject: 
xiayun wrote:
Schlomo wrote:
xiayun wrote:
With another +$30,000 PTA this weekend, there is simply no way for Kung-Fu Hustle to gross less than 10M next weekend, assuming it will be in +2000 theaters.


anyone else think Kung Fu Hustle could take #1??? I know it's a wee bit far fetched, but I'm feeling more buzz about it then I am about The Interpreter, not to mention I've seen SOOOOOOOO many ads for Kung Fu...


I sensed a similar scenario with Hero but also different. I think people underestimated the potential of Hero, and people are underestimating Kung-Fu Hustle. However, the difference is that Hero's box office run was built on Quentin Tarentino and attracting his fanbase. Although Hero got great critic reviews, the general WOM was actually pretty poor, resulting big drops in the following weekends. Kung-Fu Hustle, on the other hand, had its buzz entirely built on the WOM from general people who saw it, so even though it will probably fall short of Hero's opening weekend, it will have better legs and actually become a real phenomenon.


I don't think Hero was a success because of Quentin Tarentino. Most of it's BO came from attracting action fans with the advertising, and especially with the cinematography displayed. I certainly think WOM was strong among the general audience, it has a B+ at yahoo, and an 8.1 if you were to base it on IMDB, which I wouldn't. The large drops had to do with the action fans rushing out to see it. Just as has been the case with other well received action films such as I, Robot, Kill Bill Vol. 2, and Sin City.

I do think Kung Fu Hustle is being overestimated. It's going to do well in NY and LA, but next week the PTA will drop like a stone IMO as it expands across the country. I just think it just looks too strange for mainstream audiences.
Author:  DP07 [ Sat Apr 16, 2005 9:35 pm ]
Post subject: 
The Interpreter - 15m
Kung Fu Hustle - 7.5m
A Lot Like Love - 7m
King's Ransom - 7m

King's Ransom might suprise.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sat Apr 16, 2005 9:40 pm ]
Post subject: 
You know, I think Kung-Fu Hustle is definitely being overestimated. People seem to forget that Hero had the cast going for it as well. Jet Li is certainly not an unknown in the States and Zhang Ziyi became quite popular after CTHD. I don't see Kung-Fu Hustle making more than $12 million next weekend.
Author:  DP07 [ Sat Apr 16, 2005 9:56 pm ]
Post subject: 
Dr. Lecter wrote:
You know, I think Kung-Fu Hustle is definitely being overestimated. People seem to forget that Hero had the cast going for it as well. Jet Li is certainly not an unknown in the States and Zhang Ziyi became quite popular after CTHD. I don't see Kung-Fu Hustle making more than $12 million next weekend.


That's also true. I think Jet Li also contributed to the frontloading. He's had a few films open over 15m, but they have tended towards extreme frontloading. Neither The One nor Cradle 2 The Grave even got close to a multiplier of 2.5. Hero's legs make it seem like My Big Fat Greek Wedding by comparision.
Author:  Animosity Reigns [ Sat Apr 16, 2005 10:24 pm ]
Post subject: 
I would like to say Kung Fu will make major buckage, but its one of those movies that the majority of the people going to watch it will be folk in NY and LA area that are used to alot of these type movies, everyone that comes to my theatre sees our standees and trailers in the lobby and I have heard maybe 1 or 2 people say they want to see that, thus I see mid america and the south bringing down the pta :-k prob do around 8 million just cause it will sell out in the major cities like ny, la, chicago etc etc
Author:  xiayun [ Sat Apr 16, 2005 10:29 pm ]
Post subject: 
I still disagree. The first weekend's PTA was fine, and I wouldn't have jumped on the bandwagon back then since a lot of limited releases have that kind of PTA the first weekend. However, what's happening this weekend is very telling. To possibly not suffer any drop is quite amazing. By comparison, HOFD dropped almost 50% without any expansion its second weekend, and that basically sealed its fate the rest of the way, while CTHD held up very well in its second week, and that paved its success. It's this weekend which convinced me that it has more appeal and better/faster WOM than most people are giving it credit for.

As for the actors, I do agree that having better-known actors help, but if studios are afraid of releasing a foreign film wide just because few in the states know about the cast, then we could only end up with more The Motorcycle Diaries and Maria Full of Grace. That's why I'm pulling for Kung-Fu Hustle big time. This is one of the first foreign films that get such a wide expansion without an known player in the movie, and I applaud Sony for its gut. In the mean time, I believe it will be successful. It may not gross as much as Hero or Life is Beautiful, but it will be a hit, good enough to open the eyes of other studios to realize they can market foreign films to a wider audience instead of limiting themselves to fewer than 300 theaters. Once they start pushing more of them to 2000 theaters, they will not only get more than $15M in the box office, but also more oscar recognation along with it.
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