I agree on xXx 2 and Stealth. I think Lord of Dogtown has a chance as well since the trailer is quite effective. I'm not sure if audiences will buy into this type of film though.

I disagree strongly on Unleashed though. Maybe a bit better then Assault on Precinct 13, but not much.

I think Kingdom of Heaven will be a major suprise as I see it earning 150m

Oh, and there is always Batman Begins for which I'm predicting 120m/305m. :wink:

Bewitched - definitely is being marketed as the big summer comedy

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory - the big kid movie after Madagascar

The War of the Worlds - will be huge like Independence Day, people have been wanting a movie like this

The Adventures of Shark Girl and Lava Boy 3-D - it's a kid movie in 3-D, I think it has a strong chance of making over 80 million

Agree with Longest Yard ( though I dont think its really being underpredicted ) maybe not 175mil, but 130-150mil

Somewhat agree with Dogtown, though it could easily be a big dud, exterme sport movies just dont do that good, I dont really see it passing Jackass: The Movie ( even though Dogtown is PG-13 ) probably around 40-50mil which I think is great for it. This is in no way shape or form passing either Friday Night or Coach Carter, and really shouldnt be compared, seeing as B-Ball and Football have a much bigger draw, Dogtown needs great wom to do around 50mil.

Stealth I think will be either a bomb or do mediocre business, I think it looks bad and the premise seems way cheesy and stupid, this wont be the I,Robot of 05'

Unleashed could go either way

Dukes of Hazzard will not even do Starsky and Hutch numbers, probably do decent business opening week then fall big time, dont see it being any good.

The Wedding Crashers (Dodgeball numbers, and possibly more. 32/112)

xXx: State of the Union (2Fast2Furious numbers. 48/115)

Stealth (Big action movie by Rob Cohen, it's gotta do good. 45/129)

Bewitched (This can't possibly make less than The Stepford Wives. 25/100)

The Longest Yard (Adam Sandler = $100M+. 45/135)

The Island (Smaller opening than Bay's usual, but nice legs. 38/125)

Stupid Stepford Wives.

Okay, now that we know that xXx: State of the Union actually wasn't underpredicted (heh) we can move on to others.

Here are my picks for the most underpredicted of the summer:

War of the Worlds - I rarely ever go on an extreme with movies' box-office, but I feel confident about this one. By the time, it'll come out there probably won't be a single movie making $15+ million for that weekend, maybe with the exception of Bewitched. In any case, there won't be a huge crowd-pleaser/blockbuster around. I think comparisons to Minority Report are off because that was a sci-fi drama, an adaptation of the book written by the writer of Blade Runner. That was philosophical sci-fi. This one has much more blocbuster potential. Of course, it'll be more sophisticated than, say, ID4, but it'll offer enough of great action and money shots, I am sure. Spielberg has been in a slump recently and I believe it's time for him to come out of it. The marketing of this one absolutely reminds me of Jurassic Park's marketing. The teasers didn't show actual dinosaurs as far as I remember, only the actual final trailer which came out not too long before the movie's release. Jurassic Park went on to make $357 million. While I don't see it going THAT high, I still believe it'll be huge. Signs could make $227 million without any money shots or huge special effects escapades. ID4 made $309 million, but that back in 1996, I believe. The final trailer of WotW will be shown before SW: ROTS. So provided it's a really well-made trailer and I believe it will be, millions and millions of people nationwide will get to see it. That aside, I think the movie has a perfect release date. Not only does it have a 5-day weekend, but its Monday is July 4th and its Tuesday is July 5th on which movies usually incrase big time. I am quite certain that it'll make about $150+ million within seven days and I see a finish of around $315 million, possibly even more.


Lords of Dogtown - If they market it well and I mean really well, it can become very appealing to the young MTV-crowds. As Moviedude has said, skateboarding is popular, even though it's considering more of a niche activity than basketball and baseball. Tony Hawk games have, indeed, been very popular. Besides that, considering its budget was pretty small, it doesn't need too much to become a success. The movie has a good "raw" look to it which I believe looks good against the polished one. All the studio needs is to market this one really well and I think $60+ million is possible.

Fantastic Four - What's up with all these "opening wekend of under $30 million" predictions? Do you realize that there 'bound to be some hits this summer right? I mean last July we had three $50+ million openers in a row and I believe all of them, but The Village were mostly unexpected. Out of all July releases, this one seems to have the most potential to open big. I mean Dark Water is horror and won't cross $30 million. Then we have Stealth which is another big candidate, I admit. Then there's Wedding Crashers which I see taking the Dodgeball route. Then we have Charlie and the Chocolate Factory that can go either way, but I predict it to disappoint. In the end we have Michael Bay's The Island that looks like Bay's least marketable movie to date. It'll do well, but it doesn't look good for $50+ million. Fantastic Four will have to deal with War of the Worlds second weekend, but what prevents a movie from opening big while enough movie is still doing well? Remember, Spider-Man did $45 million in its third weekend while SW: AOTC opened to $80 million. It is possible. So far the trailers have been okay-ish at best, but I think the final one will be an improvement. This one should have big family appeal and in the end, it's still a big Marvel property. If X-Men could open to $54 million back in 2000, I don't see why this one shouldn't be able to make around $45-50 million opening weekend this year and end up with around $120-130 million.


I won't say Stealth because as of recently I have mostly seen predictions of $130+ million for it which I believe it'll be able to do.