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 New Year's Weekdays: Monday - Thursday 
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Post New Year's Weekdays: Monday - Thursday
https://www.the-numbers.com/daily-box-office-chart

SW- 15.3 million. Down 48% from last weekend. Pretty good. 460 million by the end of the weekend doesn't seem impossible. I think it has a still has a more than decent chance at passing Rogue One.

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Tue Dec 31, 2019 6:13 pm
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Post Re: Monday #
155 million from passing RO. Sad that’s the goal now domestically

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Tue Dec 31, 2019 8:08 pm
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Post Re: Monday #
There’s no recovering from such frontloading with the weakest SW CinemaScore. It will probably drop near 60% again and then the weekdays will dry up.


Tue Dec 31, 2019 9:52 pm
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Post Re: Monday #
In the daily head to head RO will start catching up to ROS's total now and TLJ will only increase its lead.

Regardless a decent number. Smaug fell 46% in 2013 in this upcoming weekend so that would mean $39m which is the target now.


Tue Dec 31, 2019 10:47 pm
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Post Re: Monday #
Wish my favorite franchise had a better curtain call than $530-$540m. I’m ready to move on.

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Wed Jan 01, 2020 4:00 am
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Post Re: Monday #
Jack Sparrow wrote:
In the daily head to head RO will start catching up to ROS's total now and TLJ will only increase its lead.

Regardless a decent number. Smaug fell 46% in 2013 in this upcoming weekend so that would mean $39m which is the target now.



Yeah, I mean After this weekend it's looking at 525-550. I think it'll hold better than Smaug.

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Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:13 am
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Post Re: Monday #
I can see TROS free fall after holidays so it really needs to hold well this weekend to show signs of holding better.


Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:30 am
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Post Re: Monday #
I don't know. Most normal people seem to be loving it. But A lot really didn't get the "Last movie". SW over saturation definitely took away the event of it, so it might actually end up holding well.

It's not Smaug level bad by any means and definitely appeals on a much broader scale.

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Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:40 am
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Post Re: Monday #
13.1 million today. 390 total.

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Wed Jan 01, 2020 3:46 pm
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Post Re: Monday #
BOT early estimates 15, which would be another disaster. Could go up, but it should still increase much less than Smaug.


Wed Jan 01, 2020 5:20 pm
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Post Re: Monday #
Magnus wrote:
It needs to do 20m today to have any chance of RO, and even then that won’t do it probably.

Disney will make sure it passes Rogue One. They don't want that embarrassment

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Wed Jan 01, 2020 5:26 pm
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Post Re: Monday #
Rev wrote:
Magnus wrote:
It needs to do 20m today to have any chance of RO, and even then that won’t do it probably.

Disney will make sure it passes Rogue One. They don't want that embarrassment


Don't think it will be close enough for their typical hijinks to get it there.


Wed Jan 01, 2020 5:39 pm
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Post Re: Monday #
DP07 wrote:
BOT early estimates 15, which would be another disaster. Could go up, but it should still increase much less than Smaug.


He’s saying 16.5. About 26% increase to Smaug’s 41%. Continues to track behind it. Looks like low 30s for the weekend.


Thu Jan 02, 2020 2:08 am
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Post Re: Monday #
I am guessing we won't have to wait past the holidays to see the collapse. Around $33m-$34m is what I see from $16.5m Wednesday. I am expecting Sunday to be between $7.5m-$9m, there is just no way to get back after that. It might not even cross $450m by holidays and there is no way it makes another $80m+, it needs to pass RO after this. Frozen has a real shot at bigger total but it all depends on Disney.


Thu Jan 02, 2020 4:08 am
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Post Re: Monday #
I was looking at The Last Jedi's daily numbers. The first weekend after New Year's Day, TLJ did about 23.7 Million, putting its running total at 572.691 million at the time.

Eventually, TLJ got to 620 million, an additional gain of approximately 48 million more dollars after that first weekend post New Year's Day (in the case of TLJ that first weekend post New Year's was January 5-7, 2018).

So, If Rise of Skywalker does low 30's this weekend, it will probably be somewhere close to 450 million total. If it does similar business to TLJ for the remainder of its run, it looks like 500 million, or maybe a little more would be about it. I'd anticipate it going a little higher because it started its run a few days later than TLJ, so maybe somewhere between 510 and 520 will be about it, and maybe that's being generous.

It does feel disappointing on the one hand, but I truly believe that comparisons to The Force Awakens are not that justifiable. The build up to TFA was unlike any other film in history. The decisions that were made for this franchise, removing Harrison Ford and Mark Hamill within the storytelling framework, had a huge impact on the overall numbers. And they obviously did not anticipate the passing of Carrie Fisher, making the third film's storytelling additionally problematic. I see The Force Awakens' numbers as a true outlier, while the remaining two films are more an indicator of how the franchise held up over the course of the trilogy. And while those numbers are fine, fans feel let down when those numbers are compared to TFA.

Personally, all this talk of the new movie's numbers being a disaster, or horrible, and so on, are hyperbolic and a tendency for haters to just hate, and that's life I guess. The numbers are definitely not TFA numbers, but how many movies are? At the end of the day TFA was one of the most special runs in the history of American film exhibition.

It will be interesting to see how Disney handles this franchise going forward. Will they ever be able to drum up levels of excitement anywhere near TFA's pending release again? I doubt it. There will not be as many new life long fans formed from this recent trilogy to create that kind of pent up demand again.

But I love Star Wars, it's been a part of my entire adult life, and I will keep an eye on the future iterations of the movies, and will continue to fondly watch these movies, no matter the ups and downs. I still think parts of this trilogy were fantastic. I also loved Rogue One, I was truly amazed at how good that movie made me feel. Solo was a mistake in its own right, and its appearance shortly after TLJ's polarizing story line compounded problems for the franchise. I'll continue to watch this recent trilogy with a certain fondness, and I'll always have fondness for Rogue One.

Cheers. Happy New Year everyone.


Thu Jan 02, 2020 4:14 pm
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Post Re: Monday #
I think it's ridiculous that there is not one scene with the original trio together.

It all goes back to the team nixing the idea of Han, Rey, and Finn finding Luke halfway through TFA. I think the line changed to "No one ever saw him again"

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Thu Jan 02, 2020 4:53 pm
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Post Re: Monday #
Thegun wrote:
I think it's ridiculous that there is not one scene with the original trio together.

It all goes back to the team nixing the idea of Han, Rey, and Finn finding Luke halfway through TFA. I think the line changed to "No one ever saw him again"


Yeah, Luke definitely should have been re-introduced earlier in TFA.

I can also see an argument for not killing him off until TROS (though I love the ending of TLJ as is).


Thu Jan 02, 2020 7:34 pm
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Post Re: Monday #
Smaug had about 2 times New Years on the following weekend. That would give TROS just over 34m. But considering it’s been behind Smaug’s pace, it will probably be a bit lower.


Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:49 am
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Post Re: New Year's Weekdays: Monday - Thursday
Thursday numbers for TROS are trending between 8.1m and 10m according to ZackM at BOT. I don't know what to make of it but I am sure this will change and come to a definite number soon.


Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:08 am
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