Could be. We'll see.
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| WoKJ Predictions for April 8-10. http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=6634 |
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| Author: | The Scottie [ Fri Apr 08, 2005 2:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | WoKJ Predictions for April 8-10. |
http://www.worldofkj.com/Prediction-6.php Discuss |
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| Author: | The Scottie [ Fri Apr 08, 2005 2:03 pm ] |
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BTW, here are the predictions Fever Pitch - 22.4m Sahara - 14.6m Sin City - 13.1m (-55%) Guess Who - 7.6m (-40%) Beauty Shop - 7.0m (-45%) Robots - 5.7m (-42%) Miss Congeniality - 4.5m (-45%) Pacifier - 3.7m (-36%) Upside of Anger - 2.6m (-35%) Ring 2 - 2.6 (-54%) Top Ten Cume - 83.8m What do you think, good predictions, or am I crazy? |
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| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Fri Apr 08, 2005 2:04 pm ] |
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I disagree on the openers, but the rest seems perfectly fine. I see Fever Pitch doing a bit worse and Sahara a bit better. |
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| Author: | bABA [ Fri Apr 08, 2005 2:05 pm ] |
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woah Scott. You went low on the Sahara one ... wow. |
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| Author: | Korrgan [ Fri Apr 08, 2005 2:12 pm ] |
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Ooh, we have similar predictions. But I went a bit lower on Fever Pitch, and just a little bit higher on Sahara. |
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| Author: | xiayun [ Fri Apr 08, 2005 2:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
I have Sahara at 19 and Fever Pitch at 18. Pre-Friday tracking seems to indicate Sahara should come out ahead. I think Beauty Shop will drop higher than most people predicted. Its weekday numbers have been weak, and I don't see it having much better Friday increase and weekend multiplier than Johnson Family Vacation's second week. The other ones look fine. |
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| Author: | JMorphin [ Fri Apr 08, 2005 2:26 pm ] |
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I have Sahara at 10 million, with Fever Pitch tying Sin City at 13 million :-$ |
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| Author: | zingy [ Fri Apr 08, 2005 3:54 pm ] |
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I went really low on Sahara compared to Scott and all the other big predictors. |
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| Author: | Libs [ Fri Apr 08, 2005 3:58 pm ] |
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Zingaling wrote: I went really low on Sahara compared to Scott and all the other big predictors. Me too, I have Fever Pitch at a bit under $18M and Sahara a bit over $14M. |
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| Author: | zingy [ Fri Apr 08, 2005 3:59 pm ] |
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Libs wrote: Zingaling wrote: I went really low on Sahara compared to Scott and all the other big predictors. Me too, I have Fever Pitch at a bit under $18M and Sahara a bit over $14M. About the same for me, but around $13 million-ish for Sahara. I just don't see how that can do over $15 million. |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Fri Apr 08, 2005 4:20 pm ] |
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I went with over 22m on Sahara and about 16m on Fever Pitch. |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Fri Apr 08, 2005 4:26 pm ] |
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xiayun wrote: I think Beauty Shop will drop higher than most people predicted. Its weekday numbers have been weak, and I don't see it having much better Friday increase and weekend multiplier than Johnson Family Vacation's second week. I think Johnson's Family's second week is the wrong comparision. That was the weekend after Easter. This week be the second weekend after Easter. If you were to compare it to JFV's third week (228% Friday increase and 90% Sat. increase) it would get over 8m. :wink: I don't quite think it will do that though. |
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| Author: | xiayun [ Fri Apr 08, 2005 4:32 pm ] |
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DP07 wrote: xiayun wrote: I think Beauty Shop will drop higher than most people predicted. Its weekday numbers have been weak, and I don't see it having much better Friday increase and weekend multiplier than Johnson Family Vacation's second week. I think Johnson's Family's second week is the wrong comparision. That was the weekend after Easter. This week be the second weekend after Easter. If you were to compare it to JFV's third week (228% Friday increase and 90% Sat. increase) it would get over 8m. :wink: I don't quite think it will do that though. I don't think that argument holds. The deeper you go into April, the bigger the Thursday-to-Friday increase, so I still believe the second weekend of JFV is the best comparison, especially when their opening Thursday-to-Friday increases are similar. Where Easter falls doesn't really matter in the case. The date is more important. |
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| Author: | zingy [ Fri Apr 08, 2005 4:38 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Brandon's predictions are in. He predicts a close race between Sahara and Fever Pitch for the weekend, but both under $17M. |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Fri Apr 08, 2005 4:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
xiayun wrote: DP07 wrote: xiayun wrote: I think Beauty Shop will drop higher than most people predicted. Its weekday numbers have been weak, and I don't see it having much better Friday increase and weekend multiplier than Johnson Family Vacation's second week. I think Johnson's Family's second week is the wrong comparision. That was the weekend after Easter. This week be the second weekend after Easter. If you were to compare it to JFV's third week (228% Friday increase and 90% Sat. increase) it would get over 8m. :wink: I don't quite think it will do that though. I don't think that argument holds. The deeper you go into April, the bigger the Thursday-to-Friday increase, so I still believe the second weekend of JFV is the best comparison, especially when their opening Thursday-to-Friday increases are similar. Where Easter falls doesn't really matter in the case. The date is more important. Think it is the date of Easter that matters. Each year the weekday numbers are higher around easter, both before and after it. I think that's more then anything that determines when spring break is. Look at this year. Robots, the Pacifier and Ice Princess are all way down from their weekdays last week. When easter was later, like 2003 or 2004, that was not the case for the family films for the first week of April. The date matters a bit, but I think it's mostly when Easter is situated. Look at previous years, it's always the week before easter and week after that have the highest weekdays in the spring. |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Fri Apr 08, 2005 5:01 pm ] |
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DP07 wrote: xiayun wrote: DP07 wrote: xiayun wrote: I think Beauty Shop will drop higher than most people predicted. Its weekday numbers have been weak, and I don't see it having much better Friday increase and weekend multiplier than Johnson Family Vacation's second week. I think Johnson's Family's second week is the wrong comparision. That was the weekend after Easter. This week be the second weekend after Easter. If you were to compare it to JFV's third week (228% Friday increase and 90% Sat. increase) it would get over 8m. :wink: I don't quite think it will do that though. I don't think that argument holds. The deeper you go into April, the bigger the Thursday-to-Friday increase, so I still believe the second weekend of JFV is the best comparison, especially when their opening Thursday-to-Friday increases are similar. Where Easter falls doesn't really matter in the case. The date is more important. Think it is the date of Easter that matters. Each year the weekday numbers are higher around easter, both before and after it. I think that's more then anything that determines when spring break is. Look at this year. Robots, the Pacifier and Ice Princess are all way down from their weekdays last week. When easter was later, like 2003 or 2004, that was not the case for the family films for the first week of April. The date matters a bit, but I think it's mostly when Easter is situated. Look at previous years, it's always the week before easter and week after that have the highest weekdays in the spring. Look at 2003: Agent Cody Banks Piglet's Big Movie Both had great Weekday numbers on April 14-17 (before easter) and April 21-24 (after easter). These weekday numbers were much stronger relative to the weekends then earlier in their runs in March. The weekday numbers then dropped off after the 27th. So, Spring Break was in mid to late April unlike most years, because Easter was so late. |
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| Author: | xiayun [ Fri Apr 08, 2005 5:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Could be. We'll see.
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| Author: | MGKC [ Fri Apr 08, 2005 6:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
I wouldn't think Fever Pitch would open higher than Guess Who, but you never know. |
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| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Fri Apr 08, 2005 11:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
DP07 wrote: xiayun wrote: DP07 wrote: xiayun wrote: I think Beauty Shop will drop higher than most people predicted. Its weekday numbers have been weak, and I don't see it having much better Friday increase and weekend multiplier than Johnson Family Vacation's second week. I think Johnson's Family's second week is the wrong comparision. That was the weekend after Easter. This week be the second weekend after Easter. If you were to compare it to JFV's third week (228% Friday increase and 90% Sat. increase) it would get over 8m. :wink: I don't quite think it will do that though. I don't think that argument holds. The deeper you go into April, the bigger the Thursday-to-Friday increase, so I still believe the second weekend of JFV is the best comparison, especially when their opening Thursday-to-Friday increases are similar. Where Easter falls doesn't really matter in the case. The date is more important. Think it is the date of Easter that matters. Each year the weekday numbers are higher around easter, both before and after it. I think that's more then anything that determines when spring break is. Look at this year. Robots, the Pacifier and Ice Princess are all way down from their weekdays last week. When easter was later, like 2003 or 2004, that was not the case for the family films for the first week of April. The date matters a bit, but I think it's mostly when Easter is situated. Look at previous years, it's always the week before easter and week after that have the highest weekdays in the spring. However, you have to keep in mind that Johnson Family Vacation is a family movie with usually great Friday increases, so Beauty Shop would do worse in comparison which would equal out the Easter effect. I am with xiayun, thinking it won't make much more than $6.3-6.4 million over the weekend. |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Sat Apr 09, 2005 12:03 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
xiayun wrote: Could be. We'll see. Well, unless Beauty Shop has a really big Saturday increase, it doesn't look like it will reach my prediction for 7m. :wink: |
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| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Sun Apr 10, 2005 10:09 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
Seems like you did pretty well on the holdovers, Scott, but not so on the openers  Anyway, I overpredicted Fever Pitch big time myself, so...
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| Author: | JMorphin [ Mon Apr 11, 2005 5:12 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Scott V's score with Actuals: Sahara - (14.6 / 18.1) -- Accuracy: 80.66% Sin City - (13.1 / 14.2) -- Accuracy: 92.25% Fever Pitch - (22.4 / 12.4) -- Accuracy: 19.35% Guess Who - (7.6 / 7) -- Accuracy: 91.43% Beauty Shop - (7.0 / 6.8) -- Accuracy: 97.06% Robots - (5.7 / 4.7) -- Accuracy: 78.72% Miss Congeniality 2: Armed and Fabulous - (4.5 / 4.2) -- Accuracy: 92.86% The Pacifier - (3.7 / 3.1) -- Accuracy: 80.65% The Ring Two - (2.6 / 2.9) -- Accuracy: 89.66% The Upside of Anger - (2.6 / 2.5) -- Accuracy: 96.00% OVERALL ACTUAL ACCURACY: 81.86% New Release: 50.01% Still in Theater: 89.83% Because of the different between the studio estimate and the actual number. You've loss a 0.77% in your average. |
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