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WOKJ BO Predictions for Easter Weekend.
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Author:  The Scottie [ Fri Mar 25, 2005 3:40 pm ]
Post subject:  WOKJ BO Predictions for Easter Weekend.
Scott's Box Office Predictions
By: Scott Vasquez

Guess Who - 26.5m
Miss Congeniality 2 - 21.1m
The Ring Two - 13.2m (-62%)
Robots - 13.1m (-38%)
Pacifier - 8.1m (-35%)
Hitch - 4.1m (-37%)
Ice Princess - 4.0m (-42%)
Hostage - 3.4m (-44%)
Be Cool - 2.8m (-53%)
Million Dollar Baby - 2.7m (-32%)
Top Ten Cume - 99.0m

Here comes Peter Cottontail, hopping down the bunny trail, hip-pity hop-pity on his way to the multiplex to catch a movie or two before he hides eggs on the eve of Easter Sunday. Two Comedies try to duke it out for the top spot, each demographically different.

Guess Who? I'll tell you who. It's Ashton Kutcher and Bernie Mac, and they are bringing down the house this weekend (3147 of them to be exact). With it's mixed ethnicity, recognizable stars, large print counts, and funny trailers, this duo will end up on top. Unfourtunatly, with 'Miss Congeniality 2' also opening, it will have to split some of its gross. This split gross will come despite the fact that 'Guess Who' targets mainly males and African Americans, a totally different audience than 'Miss Congeniality 2'. Still, with a 'Barbershop 2' like PTA, expect this comedy to be number one with $26.5 million during it's engagement.

'Miss Congeniality 2' will fight in 3233 roughhouses over the weekend. Like 'Guess Who', it has great print counts, a trailer with good reaction, but it will also fight for the dollars, with females being dominant audience here. Because of this, expect the weekend gross to be in the '13 Going on 30' and 'Legally Blonde 2' area. Besides, movies with an all female demographic tend not to open big (even the original had a low opening gross). A $21.1 million gross should be in store for this pageant.

Among holdovers, 'The Ring Two' will suffer from it's mediocre WOM and it's Saturday drop. A 62% drop will put it in the same range as 'Blade II' (another horror sequel that opened around the same time). 'Robots' and 'Pacifier' will both remain strong, but will see some it's comedy audience flock to the two openers, hence the drops over 35%. 'Hitch' and 'Be Cool' should see some direct competition from 'Guess Who', and 'Ice Princess' will have to make way for Miss Bullock, so bigger drops will be in store (especially for 'Be Cool' due to its big loss of theaters). 'Hostage' and 'Million Dollar Baby' will remain steady, thanks to no real competitors.

Overall, it should be a solid Easter Weekend. It might not top last years top ten cume of $102.3 million during the calender weekend period, but it should top the $88 million that the last Easter weekend collected. Have a Good Friday and a Happy Easter.

Discuss
Author:  zingy [ Sat Mar 26, 2005 3:40 am ]
Post subject: 
You might be a little high on Miss Congeniality 2, Scott. But otherwise, great predictions.
Author:  Eagle [ Sat Mar 26, 2005 3:46 am ]
Post subject: 
Yeh, I think your gonna nail Guess Who and be a little high on MC2.

Either way should be another 80-85% weekend.

Where do you stand for the year vs everyone else?
Author:  xiayun [ Sat Mar 26, 2005 3:48 am ]
Post subject: 
Eagle wrote:
Yeh, I think your gonna nail Guess Who and be a little high on MC2.

Either way should be another 80-85% weekend.

Where do you stand for the year vs everyone else?


http://www.boxofficemojo.com/games/derb ... &order=ASC

Nobody will catch Ragnarok until he takes his vacation in August. Scott is having another great year and a serious threat to win this time.
Author:  Anonymous [ Sat Mar 26, 2005 3:53 am ]
Post subject: 
You'll be off by $10m for Guess Who, and $5m for MC2.


Rest looks great! :razz:
Author:  zingy [ Sat Mar 26, 2005 3:54 am ]
Post subject: 
Nebs wrote:
You'll be off by $10m for Guess Who, and $5m for MC2.


Rest looks great! :razz:


Nebs, Nebs, Nebs... [-X

You always lowball any movie that doesn't have the words "Star" and "Wars" in it. :razz:
Author:  Anonymous [ Sat Mar 26, 2005 3:59 am ]
Post subject: 
Zingaling wrote:
Nebs wrote:
You'll be off by $10m for Guess Who, and $5m for MC2.


Rest looks great! :razz:


Nebs, Nebs, Nebs... [-X

You always lowball any movie that doesn't have the words "Star" and "Wars" in it. :razz:


So not true.

I predicted $112 for Star of the Bikini Wars and it made almost double!
Author:  Eagle [ Sat Mar 26, 2005 5:54 pm ]
Post subject: 
Looks like scott did well on everything not called a new release ... little high for MC2
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sat Mar 26, 2005 6:04 pm ]
Post subject: 
Openers aside, very good predictions! :)
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