Why is just 2002 being used as the model though? Both 2003 and 2004 experienced very healthy Saturday increases on Easter weekend.
PEACE, Mike
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| Wednesday (3/23) Numbers http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=5871 |
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| Author: | Spidey [ Thu Mar 24, 2005 5:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Wednesday (3/23) Numbers |
1. ROBOTS - $2,112,075 (+9.4%) $71,970,552 2. THE RING TWO - $1,996,757 (-6.1%) $41,542,784 3. THE PACIFIER - $1,390,681 (+5.3%) $76,137,393 4. ICE PRINCESS - $713,946 (+6.7%) $8,802,669 5. HITCH - $703,178 (+0.9%) $161,344,230 6. HOSTAGE - $615,000 (-3.9%) $21,368,000 7. BE COOL - $569,708 (-1.2%) $48,957,658 8. MILLION DOLLAR BABY - $414,435 (+2.3%) $91,140,621 9. CONSTANTINE - $263,396 (-1.4%) $71,174,801 10. DIARY OF A MAD BLACK WOMAN - $184,429 (-10.5%) $48,263,642 |
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| Author: | zingy [ Thu Mar 24, 2005 5:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
And Robots finally takes over... ...though, I'm a little surprised that The Ring Two "only" dropped -6.1%. Dawn of the Dead dropped -21.2%, and that wasn't it's only hard drop of the week. The Ring Two has been holding up really well compared to not only Dawn of the Dead, but blockbusters in general. A drop under 60% could be possible. |
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| Author: | Kris K [ Thu Mar 24, 2005 5:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
GRUDGE fell over 12% on it's first wednesday. Nice for THE RING TWO. I rekon it COULD drop under 60% now....still over 50% lol. |
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| Author: | El Maskado [ Thu Mar 24, 2005 5:44 pm ] |
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Ring Two is da bomb I mean da bomb |
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| Author: | MGKC [ Thu Mar 24, 2005 5:48 pm ] |
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You all are being fooled. The Ring Two will drop 65% |
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| Author: | Eagle [ Thu Mar 24, 2005 6:00 pm ] |
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I agree. You are all underestimating the time of release. |
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| Author: | Impact [ Thu Mar 24, 2005 6:01 pm ] |
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Just as I thought, Robots returned to number one! |
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| Author: | zingy [ Thu Mar 24, 2005 6:27 pm ] |
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Eagle wrote: I agree. You are all underestimating the time of release. Dawn of the Dead was released the same weekend as The Ring Two, but in 2004. Exact. Same. Weekend. And, it held up very badly last year, compared to The Ring Two. Monday: -64.13% Tuesday: -17.49% Wednesday: -21.25% Thursday: -2.73% Dawn of the Dead fell -60.05% that weekend. |
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| Author: | xiayun [ Thu Mar 24, 2005 6:33 pm ] |
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Zingaling wrote: Eagle wrote: I agree. You are all underestimating the time of release. Dawn of the Dead was released the same weekend as The Ring Two, but in 2004. Exact. Same. Weekend. And, it held up very badly last year, compared to The Ring Two. Monday: -64.13% Tuesday: -17.49% Wednesday: -21.25% Thursday: -2.73% Dawn of the Dead fell -60.05% that weekend. But if you go by Blade II's trajectry, it's heading for a $12M weekend. I think Thursday-to-Friday increase won't be higher than 120%. |
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| Author: | banjo6 [ Thu Mar 24, 2005 6:40 pm ] |
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While Dawn of the Dead opened this exact same weekend, it also wasn't the week leading up to Easter. It's really difficult to say what Ring 2 is gonna do this weekend. I think the drops this week have been softer due to the fact that alot of schools have been out and continue getting out. I work at a theater and our business has steadily increased everyday this week. Some schools were off all this week, while others began their spring breaks Wed, Thursday and then a majority if not all schools are off Friday. That is helping the drops for all movies. Good Friday should help soften the blow of Friday to Friday drops for the Ring, but then Easter should balance out that effect. |
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| Author: | sako [ Thu Mar 24, 2005 6:41 pm ] |
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xiayun wrote: Zingaling wrote: Eagle wrote: I agree. You are all underestimating the time of release. Dawn of the Dead was released the same weekend as The Ring Two, but in 2004. Exact. Same. Weekend. And, it held up very badly last year, compared to The Ring Two. Monday: -64.13% Tuesday: -17.49% Wednesday: -21.25% Thursday: -2.73% Dawn of the Dead fell -60.05% that weekend. But if you go by Blade II's trajectry, it's heading for a $12M weekend. I think Thursday-to-Friday increase won't be higher than 120%. Blade 2 dropped less than Dawn of the dead, though. I think that it can still get a drop in the 50's. |
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| Author: | xiayun [ Thu Mar 24, 2005 6:51 pm ] |
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sako wrote: Blade 2 dropped less than Dawn of the dead, though. I think that it can still get a drop in the 50's. It's not the drop that is important; it's the daily numbers. The Ring Two is already falling behind Blade II's daily numbers, and if you divide The Ring Two's Wednesday by Blade II's and then multiply it by Blade II's second weekend gross, you get $12M. The Ring Two's first Friday is so skewed that we have to adjust the analysis accordingly; it's very rare that a PG-13 movie has that high of a first Friday-to-Saturday drop. |
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| Author: | The Dark Shape [ Thu Mar 24, 2005 7:01 pm ] |
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I'm so confused. |
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| Author: | sako [ Thu Mar 24, 2005 7:23 pm ] |
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xiayun wrote: sako wrote: Blade 2 dropped less than Dawn of the dead, though. I think that it can still get a drop in the 50's. It's not the drop that is important; it's the daily numbers. The Ring Two is already falling behind Blade II's daily numbers, and if you divide The Ring Two's Wednesday by Blade II's and then multiply it by Blade II's second weekend gross, you get $12M. The Ring Two's first Friday is so skewed that we have to adjust the analysis accordingly; it's very rare that a PG-13 movie has that high of a first Friday-to-Saturday drop. I see, and that will give it a 65% drop. ouch. |
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| Author: | Kris K [ Thu Mar 24, 2005 7:25 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
oooh no not over 60%! |
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| Author: | The Scottie [ Thu Mar 24, 2005 8:41 pm ] |
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xiayun wrote: sako wrote: Blade 2 dropped less than Dawn of the dead, though. I think that it can still get a drop in the 50's. It's not the drop that is important; it's the daily numbers. The Ring Two is already falling behind Blade II's daily numbers, and if you divide The Ring Two's Wednesday by Blade II's and then multiply it by Blade II's second weekend gross, you get $12M. The Ring Two's first Friday is so skewed that we have to adjust the analysis accordingly; it's very rare that a PG-13 movie has that high of a first Friday-to-Saturday drop. To top that off, this weekend will also experience a Friday to Saturday drop, since Good Friday takes most of the business in this frame. |
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| Author: | xiayun [ Thu Mar 24, 2005 8:47 pm ] |
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Scott Vasquez wrote: xiayun wrote: sako wrote: Blade 2 dropped less than Dawn of the dead, though. I think that it can still get a drop in the 50's. It's not the drop that is important; it's the daily numbers. The Ring Two is already falling behind Blade II's daily numbers, and if you divide The Ring Two's Wednesday by Blade II's and then multiply it by Blade II's second weekend gross, you get $12M. The Ring Two's first Friday is so skewed that we have to adjust the analysis accordingly; it's very rare that a PG-13 movie has that high of a first Friday-to-Saturday drop. To top that off, this weekend will also experience a Friday to Saturday drop, since Good Friday takes most of the business in this frame. True. The normal weekend multipliers will be all thrown out of window this weekend. I was checking Ice Age to get a sense on Robots' gross, and it actually dropped 1.6% Friday-to-Saturday the same weekend, despite being a kids movie. |
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| Author: | sako [ Thu Mar 24, 2005 8:51 pm ] |
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xiayun wrote: Scott Vasquez wrote: xiayun wrote: sako wrote: Blade 2 dropped less than Dawn of the dead, though. I think that it can still get a drop in the 50's. It's not the drop that is important; it's the daily numbers. The Ring Two is already falling behind Blade II's daily numbers, and if you divide The Ring Two's Wednesday by Blade II's and then multiply it by Blade II's second weekend gross, you get $12M. The Ring Two's first Friday is so skewed that we have to adjust the analysis accordingly; it's very rare that a PG-13 movie has that high of a first Friday-to-Saturday drop. To top that off, this weekend will also experience a Friday to Saturday drop, since Good Friday takes most of the business in this frame. True. The normal weekend multipliers will be all thrown out of window this weekend. I was checking Ice Age to get a sense on Robots' gross, and it actually dropped 1.6% Friday-to-Saturday the same weekend, despite being a kids movie. I guess you guys beat me to it. I was also looking at them and the weekend multipliers are terrible, a good thrusday and friday are needed to help all movies this weekend. |
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| Author: | The Scottie [ Thu Mar 24, 2005 9:25 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
xiayun wrote: Scott Vasquez wrote: xiayun wrote: sako wrote: Blade 2 dropped less than Dawn of the dead, though. I think that it can still get a drop in the 50's. It's not the drop that is important; it's the daily numbers. The Ring Two is already falling behind Blade II's daily numbers, and if you divide The Ring Two's Wednesday by Blade II's and then multiply it by Blade II's second weekend gross, you get $12M. The Ring Two's first Friday is so skewed that we have to adjust the analysis accordingly; it's very rare that a PG-13 movie has that high of a first Friday-to-Saturday drop. To top that off, this weekend will also experience a Friday to Saturday drop, since Good Friday takes most of the business in this frame. True. The normal weekend multipliers will be all thrown out of window this weekend. I was checking Ice Age to get a sense on Robots' gross, and it actually dropped 1.6% Friday-to-Saturday the same weekend, despite being a kids movie. That is not unusual, the Friday gross is usually inflated due to higher matinee business, where Saturday does the same in matinee business, but worse than Friday later at night, because of Easter Morning. I think you can figure out the 40% drops on Sunday. |
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| Author: | MikeQ. [ Thu Mar 24, 2005 9:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Why is just 2002 being used as the model though? Both 2003 and 2004 experienced very healthy Saturday increases on Easter weekend. PEACE, Mike
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| Author: | The Scottie [ Thu Mar 24, 2005 9:44 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
MikeQ. wrote: Why is just 2002 being used as the model though? Both 2003 and 2004 experienced very healthy Saturday increases on Easter weekend. PEACE, Mike Because Easter was in March in 2002. Mid-April tends to be a bit different in the Thurday and Friday and Saturday increases, due to events. Baseball will put a little dent in the increases, because of Easter Weekend being in March. |
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| Author: | xiayun [ Thu Mar 24, 2005 10:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
MikeQ. wrote: Why is just 2002 being used as the model though? Both 2003 and 2004 experienced very healthy Saturday increases on Easter weekend. PEACE, Mike No, they didn't. Last year, the Easter weekend fell on April 9th - 11th, and here is the chart: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2004-04-09&p=.htm. Most films dropped around 10% on Saturday, including kids films Home on the Range and Scooby-Doo 2. |
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| Author: | xiayun [ Thu Mar 24, 2005 10:04 pm ] |
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And here is 2003's Easter (April 18th - 20th): http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/char ... -18&p=.htm Again, the Saturday increases are minimal. Just for reference, here is 2002 (Mar 29th - 31st): http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/char ... -29&p=.htm BTW, most films increase 20-40% on Thursday before Easter, so expect that when today's numbers are released tomorrow. |
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| Author: | sako [ Thu Mar 24, 2005 10:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
xiayun wrote: And here is 2003's Easter (April 18th - 20th): http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/char ... -18&p=.htm Again, the Saturday increases are minimal. Just for reference, here is 2002 (Mar 29th - 31st): http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/char ... -29&p=.htm BTW, most films increase 20-40% on Thursday before Easter, so expect that when today's numbers are released tomorrow. Thanks for posting those xiayun. I expected the drops on Saturday to be at about +5% through -5%. The sad thing is that whatever the friday to friday drop is for the Ring Two, that is what it will have for that weekend, since it will drop on Saturday and a 40%+ drop on Sunday. |
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| Author: | MikeQ. [ Thu Mar 24, 2005 10:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Guys, I was totally looking at the wrong weekends!  So, I thought there were increases, but I wasn't looking at the Easter weekends. Thanks for the corrections!
PEACE, Mike
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