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Steep second weekend drop - Will the trend continue?
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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Steep second weekend drop - Will the trend continue?
Well, I made a similar thread at BOM a while ago, but it didn't get many responses...I'll try my luck here.
Just some years ago, a drop of around 50% in the second weekend was considered completely horrendous, even for the most anticipated summer blockbusters. Nowadays, it is considered as a normal drop in the summer and for some movies it is even considered good. A drop of 50% is nothing unusual anymore. The movies become more and more frontloaded. Years ago, only really bad movies would get drops of over 50%, but this year, one of the year's best reviewed movies, Hero, dropped 50% in its 2nd weekend. Drops of 60% appear more and more regularely and while they are considered bad, they are not really something that is an exception as the really bad movies even expect drops of 70+%. Movies like The Hulk and The Village came close enough to that. This is the reason why the opening weekends have become much more important than they have ever been. Oversaturation, a too crowded marketplace and the often not-so-good quality lead to that.
Where does this trend lead? Will a "normal" second weekend drop be 60% in 2-3 years and 65% by 2010? And by 2015, will movies make 60% of their total gross during their opening weekend?
What are your views on that?
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Wed Oct 20, 2004 2:33 pm |
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The Scottie
King Albert!
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:04 pm Posts: 11838 Location: The Happiest City on Earth
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The reason movie are dropping bigger is because the schedules are now tighter. More tentpole movies are coming in such rapid sucession, that most movies become only one week wonders. So a 60% drop will always be considered harsh, even in the year 3000.
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Wed Oct 20, 2004 8:54 pm |
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Plot
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 9:40 pm Posts: 2987 Location: Free Country, USA
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I think it could happen, but not for a while. I say 60% drops will be normal by 2020. And even then, it will only be normal in the summer and around christmas, when all the studios are trying to release their blockbusters at the same time.
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Wed Oct 20, 2004 10:22 pm |
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sako
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 6:07 pm Posts: 1684
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Sad, but yes, we will see a 70% drop next year for sure.
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Thu Oct 21, 2004 1:05 am |
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