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 Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (06/16) 
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekday Estimates (12/28-01/01)
Weekday Estimates (12/28-1/01)

Monday Estimates (12/28)
¥285,000,000 ($2.37 million), +05%, ¥4,120,000,000 ($34.17 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Day 11
¥225,000,000 ($1.87 million), +274% ¥2,525,000,000 ($20.97 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories (Toho) Day 10
¥93,000,000 ($771,000), +113%, ¥1,493,000,000 ($12.31 million), Orange (Toho) Day 17
¥38,000,000 ($319,000), +60%, ¥2,213,000,000 ($18.17 million), 007: Spectre (Sony) Day 25
¥31,000,000 ($257,000), 0, ¥151,000,000 ($1.26 million), Chibi Maruko-chan: The Movie (Toho) Day 6


Tuesday Estimates (12/29)
¥335,000,000 ($2.78 million), +37%, ¥4,455,000,000 ($36.95 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Day 12
¥265,000,000 ($2.16 million), +213% ¥2,785,000,000 ($23.13 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories (Toho) Day 11
¥125,000,000 ($1.04 million), +205%, ¥1,618,000,000 ($13.35 million), Orange (Toho) Day 18
¥48,000,000 ($399,000), +92%, ¥2,260,000,000 ($18.57 million), 007: Spectre (Sony) Day 26
¥40,000,000 ($333,000), 0, ¥191,000,000 ($1.59 million), Chibi Maruko-chan: The Movie (Toho) Day 7


Wednesday Estimates (12/30)
¥385,000,000 ($3.20 million), -06%, ¥4,840,000,000 ($40.15 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Day 13
¥255,000,000 ($2.11 million), -35% ¥3,040,000,000 ($25.24 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories (Toho) Day 12
¥115,000,000 ($956,000), +10%, ¥1,733,000,000 ($14.31 million), Orange (Toho) Day 19
¥50,000,000 ($416,000), -12%, ¥2,310,000,000 ($18.99 million), 007: Spectre (Sony) Day 27
¥44,000,000 ($366,000), -09%, ¥235,000,000 ($1.96 million), Chibi Maruko-chan: The Movie (Toho) Day 8


Thursday Estimates (12/31)
¥270,000,000 ($2.24 million), +29%, ¥5,105,000,000 ($42.39 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Day 14
¥130,000,000 ($1.08 million), +38% ¥3,170,000,000 ($26.32 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories (Toho) Day 13
¥54,000,000 ($449,000), -30%, ¥1,787,000,000 ($14.76 million), Orange (Toho) Day 20
¥31,000,000 ($257,000), +35%, ¥2,341,000,000 ($19.25 million), 007: Spectre (Sony) Day 28
¥20,000,000 ($166,000), +66%, ¥255,000,000 ($2.13 million), Chibi Maruko-chan: The Movie (Toho) Day 9


Friday Estimates (01/01)
¥430,000,000 ($3.57 million), +87%, ¥5,535,000,000 ($45.96 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Day 15
¥135,000,000 ($1.12 million), -02% ¥3,305,000,000 ($27.44 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories (Toho) Day 14
¥63,000,000 ($523,000), +133%, ¥2,405,000,000 ($19.77 million), 007: Spectre (Sony) Day 29
¥43,000,000 ($357,000), -59%, ¥1,830,000,000 ($15.12 million), Orange (Toho) Day 21
¥36,000,000 ($299,000), +52%, ¥1,180,000,000 ($9.75 million), Living With My Mother (Shochiku) Day 21


% changes versus last week.

Now that New Year is in full swing, the more adult driven films (Star Wars, Spectre, and Living With My Mother) will be in for possible increases or excellent holds this weekend versus last weekend. And films that target teens/families (Yo-Kai Watch, Orange, and Chibi Maruko-chan will be mostly down, but will rebound after the weekend.

I'll post the weekend forecast tonight.

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Fri Jan 01, 2016 6:31 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/02-03)
Weekend Forecast (01/02-03)/2016年01月02日-2016年01月03日
01 (01) ¥747,000,000 ($6.2 million), +03%, ¥6,285,000,000 ($52.2 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Week 3
02 (02) ¥359,000,000 ($3.0 million), -30%, ¥3,665,000,000 ($30.4 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories (Toho) Week 3
03 (03) ¥158,000,000 ($1.3 million), -25%, ¥1,990,000,000 ($16.4 million), Orange (Toho) Week 4
04 (04) ¥111,000,000 ($921,000), +09%, ¥2,515,000,000 ($20.7 million), 007: Spectre (Sony) Week 5
05 (05) ¥93,000,000 ($771,000), +14%, ¥1,270,000,000 ($10.5 million), Living With My Mother (Shochiku) Week 4
06 (08) ¥51,000,000 ($423,000), +23%, ¥725,000,000 ($6.0 million), Persona Non Grata (Toho) Week 5
07 (06) ¥48,000,000 ($398,000), -05%, ¥325,000,000 ($2.7 million), Chibi Maruko-chan: The Movie (Toho) Week 2
08 (13) ¥38,000,000 ($315,000), +200%, ¥700,000,000 ($5.8 million), Girls und Panzer: The Movie (Showgate) Week 7
09 (10) ¥37,000,000 ($307,000), -12%, ¥160,000,000 ($1.3 million), Creed (Warner Bros.) Week 2
10 (07) ¥32,000,000 ($265,000), -34%, ¥650,000,000 ($5.4 million), Kamen Rider X Kamen Rider Ghost & Drive Movie Wars (Toei) Week 4

This weekend is very difficult to predict as it's the bank holidays/New Year, but not apart of the strongest days of the New Year, so expect varying differences between the forecast, weekend estimates, and finally the weekend actuals when they're finally released.

The first couple days of January, while strong due to New Years, aren't the strongest of the holiday period. The strongest days occur after the bank holidays (this weekend), which is January 4th and the next several days to follow. So, next week's weekdays are going to be quite humongous (probably 2x or more than this weekend earnings).

Still, the films appealing to adults are looking at potential increases this weekend, or at the very least, very small drops. And all the films targeting children/families or teens/young adults are unlikely to hold (or increase) as well unless Sunday proves otherwise. However, the films skewing toward a younger crowd will perform exceptionally well over the weekdays.

And that massive increase for Girls und Panzer: The Movie is probably due to some giveaway to moviegoers. Its pre-sales are up even beyond the 200% prediction above compared to last week (they're almost even with last weekend's overall admissions), but I'm being "conservative" in case there's a rush factor today. It's also been out of the Top 10 for a couple weeks now and I haven't been tracking it as extensively since, so its running total could be higher.

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Fri Jan 01, 2016 10:03 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekday Forcast (01/02-03)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens is up over 10% versus last Saturday thanks to New Years, and Sunday is also looking very strong, as well, so a third weekend increase is looking pretty good. Or, at the very least, it'll see a single digit drop.

I'm thinking it pulls off an increase, so a third weekend of over ¥750 million ($6-6.5 million) and a third week total of ~¥6.3 billion ($52/53 million) is looking good. Here's where it'd stand after three weeks against other blockbusters/uber-blockbusters (and for comparison, it's greatly outpacing its predecessors now):

Biggest Three Week Totals (2001-)

Three Week Total (% of Final Total) - Film (Year)
¥7.22 billion (23.8%) - Spirited Away (2001)
¥6.78 billion (34.6%) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥6.73 billion (33.2%) - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥6.67 billion (38.6%) - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥6.37 billion (57.9%) - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
¥6.30 billion (??.?%) - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) *Projection*
¥6.13 billion (56.2%) - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
¥5.96 billion (62.7%) - Jurassic World (2015)
¥5.95 billion (34.2%) - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
¥5.89 billion (49.9%) - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
¥5.86 billion (43.4%) - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥5.31 billion (54.9%) - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (2011)
¥5.28 billion (20.7%) - Frozen (2014)
¥5.26 billion (33.9%) - Ponyo (2008)
¥5.24 billion (67.2%) - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014)
¥5.23 billion (55.6%) - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (2007)
¥5.23 billion (73.4%) - Spider-Man 3 (2007)
¥5.22 billion (52.1%) - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
¥5.18 billion (57.2%) - The Da Vinci Code (2006)
¥5.03 billion (56.7%) - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
¥5 billion+


Biggest Third Weekends (2001-)

Third Weekend Gross (% change) - Film (Year)
¥1.205 billion (-11%) - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥1.196 billion (-15%) - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥1.078 billion (+05%) - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
¥1.012 billion (-16%) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥998.9 million (-21%) - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥935.7 million (-20%) - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
¥890.0 million (-09%) - Spirited Away (2001)
¥881.2 million (+01%) - Frozen (2014)
¥848.1 million (-22%) - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
¥799.6 million (-24%) - Rookies (2009)
¥776.5 million (-05%) - Ponyo (2008)
¥772.9 million (-30%) - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
¥760.0 million (+05%) - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) *Projection*
¥719.7 million (-23%) - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge (2003)
¥710.3 million (-13%) - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
¥692.4 million (-37%) - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
¥683.5 million (-34%) - The Da Vinci Code (2006)
¥665.4 million (+30%) - Big Hero 6 (2014)
¥636.9 million (-06%) - Avatar (2009)
¥624.6 million (-27%) - Finding Nemo (2003)
¥597.5 million (-37%) - Jurassic World (2015)
¥584.5 million (-15%) - Umizaru: The Last Message (2010)
¥580.4 million (-23%) - Boys Over Flowers: Final (2008)
¥574.1 million (-19%) - Umizaru: The Limit of Love (2006)
¥559.1 million (-54%) - Spider-Man (2002)
¥555.6 million (-31%) - The Wind Rises (2013)
¥548.8 million (-09%) - Arrietty (2010)
¥547.1 million (-13%) - Monsters University (2013)
¥540.6 million (-22%) - Star Wars: Episide II - Attack of the Clones (2002)
¥538.4 million (-09%) - Monsters, Inc. (2002)
¥536.5 million (-20%) - Bayside Shakedown: Set the Guys Loose! (2010)
¥536.2 million (-26%) - Toy Story 3 (2010)
¥533.8 million (-14%) - Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (2009)
¥531.7 million (+46%) - The Eternal Zero (2013)
¥525.2 million (-22%) - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part - 2 (2011)
¥522.0 million (-09%) - Crying Out Love in the Center of the World (2004)
¥515.5 million (-12%) - Tales from Earthsea (2006)
¥511.1 million (-28%) - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
¥506.2 million (-18%) - Yo-Kai Watch: It's th Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014)
¥506.1 million (-39%) - Hero (2007)
¥504.8 million (-01%) - The Last Samurai (2003)
¥500 million+

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"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sat Jan 02, 2016 6:46 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Usual Locations - Weekend Admissions
Usual Locations - Weekend Admissions (66% of Market)

[01/02-03]
TW (LW) Admissions (% change), [Theaters/Showings], Film (Dis.) Week of Release
01 (01) 335,504 (+12%), [236/5,038], Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Week 3
02 (02) 170,847 (-37%), [229/3,188], Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Toho) Week 3
03 (03) 78,815 (-23%), [219/2,070], Orange (Toho) Week 4
04 (04) 50,139 (+14%), [227/1,617], 007: Spectre (Sony) Week 5
05 (05) 42,660 (+39%), [221/1,752], Living With My Mother (Shochiku) Week 4
06 (06) 34,944 (+31%), [177/1,794], Chibi Maruko-chan: The Movie (Toho) Week 2
07 (11) 24,473 (+58%), [222/1,377], Persona Non Grata (Toho) Week 5
08 (12) 21,442 (+128%), [58/196], Girls und Panzer: The Movie (Showgate) Week 7
09 (10) 17,630 (-03%), [168/1,322], Creed (Warner Bros.) Week 2
10 (08) 15,078 (-31%), [197/1,139], Kamen Rider X Kamen Rider Ghost & Drive Movie Wars (Toei) Week 4
11 (09) 13,789 (-24%), [225/1,021], The Peanuts Movie (Fox) Week 5
12 (13) 9,660 (+30%), [203/793], Kainan 1890 (Toei) Week 5
13 (08) 6,023 (-69%), [96/411], High Speed! Free! Starting Days (Shochiku) Week 5
14 (17) 3,576 (-08%), [171/370], The Little Prince (Warner Bros.) Week 7
15 (16) 2,958 (-30%), [11/54], Denki Groove the Movie? (Live Broadcast) Week 2
16 (18) 2,365 (-35%), [29/145], Straight Outta Compton (Sinkers) Week 2
17 (21) 2,007 (-03%), [209/4222], Mozu (Toho) Week 9
18 (19) 1,954 (-23%), [135/292], Raintree Country (Showgate) Week 7
19 (20) 1,329 (-42%), [9/66], Pawn Sacrifice (Gaga) Week 2
20 (22) 916 (-11%), [8/27], The Woman in Gold (Gaga) Week 6

You'll see that some films had increases while others didn't, which may seem a bit odd given the holidays. The cause of this is due to what dates the weekend landed on this year.

Basically, the more appeal a film had for adult audiences, the bigger the increase (or stronger the hold) since business are currently on holiday. The bank holidays at the beginning of January is one the few times during the year that workers/salarymen can attend a movie on their own terms.

And those films that appeal to a younger audience experienced the worse holds over the weekend (or normal holds) since they've been receiving their Winter Break/New Year boost prior to going into the weekend and will continue to receive a boost heading into the next set of weekdays, while the more adult films will drop faster.

Weekend Estimates will be posted shortly.

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"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sun Jan 03, 2016 12:15 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/02-03)
Weekend Estimates (01/02-03)/2016年01月02日-2016年01月03日
01 (01) ¥790,000,000 ($6.55 million), +09%, ¥6,340,000,000 ($52.74 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Week 3
02 (02) ¥333,000,000 ($2.76 million), -35%, ¥3,660,000,000 ($30.37 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories (Toho) Week 3
03 (03) ¥162,000,000 ($1.34 million), -23%, ¥2,000,000,000 ($16.52 million), Orange (Toho) Week 4
04 (04) ¥120,000,000 ($992,000), +14%, ¥2,525,000,000 ($20.85 million), 007: Spectre (Sony) Week 5
05 (05) ¥114,000,000 ($945,000), +39%, ¥1,295,000,000 ($10.72 million), Living With My Mother (Shochiku) Week 4
06 (06) ¥70,000,000 ($582,000), +30%, ¥350,000,000 ($2.90 million), Chibi Maruko-chan: The Movie (Toho) Week 2
07 (09) ¥69,000,000 ($572,000), +54%, ¥850,000,000 ($7.00 million), Persona Non Grata (Toho) Week 5
08 (13) ¥54,000,000 ($447,000), +125%, ¥750,000,000 ($6.19 million), Girls und Panzer: The Movie (Showgate) Week 7
09 (10) ¥42,000,000 ($346,000), -04%, ¥170,000,000 ($1.41 million), Creed (Warner Bros.) Week 2
10 (07) ¥34,000,000 ($284,000), -30%, ¥650,000,000 ($5.41 million), Kamen Rider X Kamen Rider Ghost & Drive Movie Wars (Toei) Week 4

>Star Wars: The Force Awakens may have broke ¥800 million, but I want to be "conservative" since its actual went up last weekend. It's outpacing Attack of the Clones and Revenge of the Sith by pretty significant amounts now after seeing a debut on par/below them, and it's incredibly likely to exceed the ¥10 billion milestone. It may come closer to The Phantom Menace's total than originally expected.

>Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! is down quite a bit once again this weekend, but its weekdays going into the weekend were notably strong, and it's likely to perform well over the next few days as well. It's still down over 30% from last year's film by comparison, but is still on track to exceed the ¥5 billion blockbuster milestone. And since its ticket prices are so low, it may sell over 5 million admissions again this year which is no small task.

Other notable films:

>Spectre is now just ¥200/250 million away from surpassing Skyfall (¥2.75 billion) to become the highest-grossing 007 film. It'll probably get get there next weekend.

>Orange is probably over the ¥2 billion milestone, which will make it the fourth-consecutive live-action shojo manga (teen romance) adaptation to reach the mark. The genre has been on a huge winning streak as of late. But more importantly, Orange is looking at a total north of ¥2.5 billion (and perhaps close to ¥3 billion), which will make it the highest-grossing shoji film since 2009.

>Persona Non Grata's strong weekend showing, combined with its great weekday performance, will allow it to exceed the ¥1 billion milestone. It had a mediocre debut earlier this month, but it's gone on to develop great legs.

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"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Last edited by Corpse on Sun Jan 03, 2016 1:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Sun Jan 03, 2016 1:03 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Biggest Third Weeks
Biggest Three Week Totals (2001-)

Three Week Total (% of Final Total) - Film (Year)
¥7.22 billion (23.8%) - Spirited Away (2001)
¥6.78 billion (34.6%) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥6.73 billion (33.2%) - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥6.67 billion (38.6%) - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥6.37 billion (57.9%) - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
¥6.34 billion (??.?%) - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) *Estimate*
¥6.13 billion (56.2%) - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
¥5.96 billion (62.7%) - Jurassic World (2015)
¥5.95 billion (34.2%) - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
¥5.89 billion (49.9%) - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
¥5.86 billion (43.4%) - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥5.31 billion (54.9%) - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (2011)
¥5.28 billion (20.7%) - Frozen (2014)
¥5.26 billion (33.9%) - Ponyo (2008)
¥5.24 billion (67.2%) - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014)
¥5.23 billion (55.6%) - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (2007)
¥5.23 billion (73.4%) - Spider-Man 3 (2007)
¥5.22 billion (52.1%) - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
¥5.18 billion (57.2%) - The Da Vinci Code (2006)
¥5.03 billion (56.7%) - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
¥5 billion+


Biggest Third Weekends (2001-)

Third Weekend Gross (% change) - Film (Year)
¥1.205 billion (-11%) - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥1.196 billion (-15%) - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥1.078 billion (+05%) - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
¥1.012 billion (-16%) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥998.9 million (-21%) - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥935.7 million (-20%) - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
¥890.0 million (-09%) - Spirited Away (2001)
¥881.2 million (+01%) - Frozen (2014)
¥848.1 million (-22%) - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
¥799.6 million (-24%) - Rookies (2009)
¥790.0 million (+09%) - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) *Estimate*
¥776.5 million (-05%) - Ponyo (2008)
¥772.9 million (-30%) - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
¥719.7 million (-23%) - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge (2003)
¥710.3 million (-13%) - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
¥692.4 million (-37%) - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
¥683.5 million (-34%) - The Da Vinci Code (2006)
¥665.4 million (+30%) - Big Hero 6 (2014)
¥636.9 million (-06%) - Avatar (2009)
¥624.6 million (-27%) - Finding Nemo (2003)
¥597.5 million (-37%) - Jurassic World (2015)
¥584.5 million (-15%) - Umizaru: The Last Message (2010)
¥580.4 million (-23%) - Boys Over Flowers: Final (2008)
¥574.1 million (-19%) - Umizaru: The Limit of Love (2006)
¥559.1 million (-54%) - Spider-Man (2002)
¥555.6 million (-31%) - The Wind Rises (2013)
¥548.8 million (-09%) - Arrietty (2010)
¥547.1 million (-13%) - Monsters University (2013)
¥540.6 million (-22%) - Star Wars: Episide II - Attack of the Clones (2002)
¥538.4 million (-09%) - Monsters, Inc. (2002)
¥536.5 million (-20%) - Bayside Shakedown: Set the Guys Loose! (2010)
¥536.2 million (-26%) - Toy Story 3 (2010)
¥533.8 million (-14%) - Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (2009)
¥531.7 million (+46%) - The Eternal Zero (2013)
¥525.2 million (-22%) - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part - 2 (2011)
¥522.0 million (-09%) - Crying Out Love in the Center of the World (2004)
¥515.5 million (-12%) - Tales from Earthsea (2006)
¥511.1 million (-28%) - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
¥506.2 million (-18%) - Yo-Kai Watch: It's th Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014)
¥506.1 million (-39%) - Hero (2007)
¥504.8 million (-01%) - The Last Samurai (2003)
¥500 million+

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Sun Jan 03, 2016 1:04 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekday Estimates (01/02-03)
How many admissions so far for the dynamic duo?

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Sun Jan 03, 2016 1:10 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekday Estimates (01/02-03)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens probably exceeded 4 million over the weekend (I have it at ~4.07 million) after three weeks.

Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! should be closing in on 3.5 million (I have it at ~3.41 million) after three weeks.

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Sun Jan 03, 2016 1:16 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekday Estimates (01/02-03)
THX!

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Sun Jan 03, 2016 1:18 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekday Estimates (01/02-03)
No problem. And for final estimates,

Yo-Kai Watch 2 is aiming for around 5 million admissions. It shouldn't deviate much from a 4.9-5.1 million range.

Star Wars VII is harder to project since there aren't any good comparisons for it from this time of year. However, I'm pretty confident it'll exceed 7 million admissions and wouldn't rule out 8 million yet, though that'd be an uphill climb.

For comparison, The Phantom Menace sold 8.3 million; Attack of the Clones sold 6.8 million; and Revenge of the Sith sold 6.6 million. None of the films from the original trilogy sold over 5 million admissions, otherwise it'd be reported (though Return of the Jedi had to be close).

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals (01/02-03)
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Weekend Actuals (01/02-03)/2016年01月02日-2016年01月03日
01 (01) ¥826,655,600 ($6.85 million), +14%, ¥6,401,002,302 ($53.04 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Week 3
02 (02) ¥374,386,900 ($3.10 million), -27%, ¥3,783,116,800 ($31.39 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories (Toho) Week 3
03 (03) ¥168,658,900 ($1.40 million), -20%, ¥2,102,562,500 ($17.36 million), Orange (Toho) Week 4
04 (04) ¥120,300,800 ($998,000), +14%, ¥2,562,423,500 ($21.15 million), 007: Spectre (Sony) Week 5
05 (05) ¥109,649,200 ($909,000), +34%, ¥1,279,741,000 ($10.61 million), Living With My Mother (Shochiku) Week 4
06 (06) ¥73,632,500 ($610,000), +37%, ¥364,674,800 ($3.01 million), Chibi Maruko-chan: The Movie (Toho) Week 2
07 (09) ¥66,323,700 ($550,000), +48%, ¥944,479,100 ($7.80 million), Persona Non Grata (Toho) Week 5
08 (13) ¥47,671,400 ($396,000), +96%, ¥767,086,390 ($6.33 million), Girls und Panzer: The Movie (Showgate) Week 7
09 (10) ¥45,910,100 ($381,000), +06%, ¥239,191,900 ($1.99 million), Creed (Warner Bros.) Week 2
10 (07) ¥35,377,700 ($294,000), -27%, ¥617,738,000 ($5.16 million), Kamen Rider X Kamen Rider Ghost & Drive Movie Wars (Toei) Week 4

>Star Wars: The Force Awakens delivered the tenth biggest third weekend of all-time (second biggest this decade), and achieved the fifth highest three week total of all-time (biggest this decade).

The seventh Star Wars entry sold 521,980 tickets over its third weekend, up 17% over last weekend. And after three weeks in release, it's sold 4.15 million admissions.

There aren't any good comparisons to project where it may be heading, but it's looking very likely to exceed 7 million admissions and has assured it that it'll achieve the ¥10 billion ($80 million) uber-blockbuster milestone, making it the second biggest Star Wars film (behind The Phantom Menace), and only the second live-action film this decade to reach the mark as well (the first being Alice in Wonderland).

I don't want to speak too soon, but there's still a chance that The Force Awakens could go on to challenge The Phantom Menace, or at least come quite close to it by grossing around ¥12 billion (~$100 million) on almost 8 million admissions.

>Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! saw an uptick over estimates, and delivered a more favorable second weekend hold and three week total.

The second film in the multi-media phenomenon sold an additional 321,594 tickets over its third weekend, down 29% compared to last weekend, bringing its three week total to 3.42 million admissions.

It it follows its predecessor from here, it'll have no problem exceeding the ¥5 billion blockbuster milestone, and should be aiming for a total of ¥5.5 billion ($45 million) and 5 million admissions. However, its predecessor was very frontloaded, so perhaps there's still a chance it could even hit ¥6 billion ($50 million).

>Spectre continues tracking ahead of Skyfall, by 25%, though it's further into New Year than its predecessor, so the latter will close the gap over the next few weeks. However, Spectre has a commanding lead after four weeks, and will overtake Skyfall to become the highest-grossing 007 film before next weekend begins. It'll come pretty close to the ¥3 billion milestone, and has a fair shot at reaching it.

>Orange has easily exceeded the ¥2 billion milestone already, after four weeks in release, and unlike most shojo live-action adaptations which have little left in the tank when reaching this mark, Orange still has quite a bit left. It'll become the highest-grossing shojo (or josei) live-action adaptation since 2009's Nodame Cantabile as it also aims for the ¥3 billion milestone.

>Persona Non Grata is experiencing the biggest New Years boost, in terms of percentage, and will exceed the ¥1 billion milestone before the holiday frame is over. Its legs have been exceptional following its mediocre debut, and will approach a multiplier of 10.

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Biggest Third Weeks
Biggest Third Weekends/Third Week Totals (2001-)

¥1.205 billion, (-11%), ¥6.73 billion, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥1.196 billion, (-15%), ¥6.67 billion, Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥1.150 billion, (-02%), ¥6.30 billion, Your Name. (2016) *Projection*
¥1.078 billion, (+05%), ¥5.89 billion, Alice in Wonderland (2010)
¥1.012 billion, (-16%), ¥6.78 billion, Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥998.9 million, (-21%), ¥5.86 billion, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥935.7 million,(-20%), ¥6.13 billion, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
¥890.0 million, (-09%), ¥7.22 billion, Spirited Away (2001)
¥881.2 million, (+01%), ¥5.28 billion, Frozen (2014)
¥848.1 million, (-22%), ¥4.98 billion, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
¥826.7 million, (+14%), ¥6.40 billion, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
¥799.6 million, (-24%), ¥4.86 billion, Rookies (2009)
¥776.5 million, (-05%), ¥5.26 billion, Ponyo (2008)
¥772.9 million, (-30%), ¥6.37 billion, The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
¥719.7 million, (-23%), ¥5.95 billion, Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge (2003)
¥710.3 million, (-13%), ¥4.91 billion, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
¥692.4 million, (-37%), ¥5.03 billion, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
¥683.5 million, (-34%), ¥5.18 billion, The Da Vinci Code (2006)
¥665.4 million, (+30%), ¥4.14 billion, Big Hero 6 (2014)
¥636.9 million, (-06%), ¥4.67 billion, Avatar (2009)
¥624.6 million, (-27%), ¥4.59 billion, Finding Nemo (2003)
¥597.5 million, (-37%), ¥5.95 billion, Jurassic World (2015)
¥584.5 million, (-15%), ¥4.68 billion, Umizaru: The Last Message (2010)
¥580.4 million, (-23%), ¥3.79 billion, Boys Over Flowers: Final (2008)
¥574.1 million, (-19%), ¥3.55 billion, Umizaru: The Limit of Love (2006)
¥559.1 million, (-54%), ¥3.68 billion, Spider-Man (2002)
¥555.6 million, (-31%), ¥4.36 billion, The Wind Rises (2013)
¥548.8 million, (-09%), ¥3.98 billion, Arrietty (2010)
¥547.1 million, (-13%), ¥3.44 billion, Monsters University (2013)
¥540.6 million, (-22%), ¥4.42 billion, Star Wars: Episide II - Attack of the Clones (2002)
¥538.4 million, (-09%), ¥2.84 billion, Monsters, Inc. (2002)
¥536.5 million, (-20%), ¥3.66 billion, Bayside Shakedown: Set the Guys Loose! (2010)
¥536.2 million, (-26%), ¥3.88 billion, Toy Story 3 (2010)
¥533.8 million, (-14%), ¥4.75 billion, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (2009)
¥531.7 million, (+46%), ¥3.20 billion, The Eternal Zero (2013)
¥525.2 million, (-22%), ¥5.31 billion, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part - 2 (2011)
¥522.0 million, (-09%), ¥2.79 billion, Crying Out Love in the Center of the World (2004)
¥515.5 million, (-12%), ¥3.77 billion, Tales from Earthsea (2006)
¥511.1 million, (-28%), ¥5.22 billion, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
¥506.2 million, (-18%), ¥5.42 billion, Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014)
¥506.1 million, (-39%), ¥4.48 billion, Hero (2007)
¥504.8 million, (-01%), ¥3.18 billion, The Last Samurai (2003)
¥500 million+

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekday Estimates (01/04-08)
Weekday Estimates (01/04-08)

Monday Estimates (01/04)
¥285,000,000 ($2.38 million), +02%, ¥6,686,000,000 ($55.42 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Day 18
¥165,000,000 ($1.38 million), -27% ¥3,948,000,000 ($32.77 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories (Toho) Day 17
¥84,000,000 ($701,000), -10%, ¥2,186,000,000 ($18.06 million), Orange (Toho) Day 24
¥39,000,000 ($328,000), +03%, ¥2,601,000,000 ($21.48 million), 007: Spectre (Sony) Day 32
¥36,000,000 ($300,000), +56%, ¥1,315,000,000 ($10.91 million), Living With My Mother (Shochiku) Day 24


Tuesday Estimates (01/05)
¥160,000,000 ($1.35 million), -55%, ¥6,846,000,000 ($56.77 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Day 19
¥115,000,000 ($965,000), -57% ¥4,063,000,000 ($33.74 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories (Toho) Day 18
¥63,000,000 ($529,000), -50%, ¥2,249,000,000 ($18.59 million), Orange (Toho) Day 25
¥30,000,000 ($252,000), -26%, ¥425,000,000 ($3.53 million), Chibi Maruko-chan: The Movie (Toho) Day 15
¥18,000,000 ($151,000), -62%, ¥2,619,000,000 ($21.66 million), 007: Spectre (Sony) Day 33


% changes versus last week.

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: First Page Preview/Updated (Finally)
Alright, so I've finally updated the first post on the first of this thread as promised several times last year.

There, you'll find a link to the beginning of each year's box office discussion in this thread, as well as that year's stats and Top 10 films. I even added asterisks (*) to December releases, which count toward the following box office year, for you mark66.

Below is how the first page will look, however, you'll also see a regularly updated All-Time Top 150 films and Most Attended Films below the individual years. If there's anything else anyone would like to see kept updated in the first post on the first page, please say so.

2015 Box Office (Pages 223-282)
2015 Box Office Stats:
Spoiler: show
COMING SOON! [Last Week of January]

Top 10 Films [Preliminary]:
01. ¥9.51 billion ($77.9 million) - Jurassic World (Toho-Towa)
02. ¥9.16 billion ($77.7 million) - Big Hero 6 (Disney)*
03. ¥7.80 billion ($66.2 million) - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (Toho)*
04. ¥5.85 billion ($47.7 million) - The Boy and the Beast (Toho)
05. ¥5.73 billion ($46.6 million) - Cinderella (Disney)
06. ¥5.21 billion ($42.9 million) - Minions (Toho-Towa)
07. ¥5.11 billion ($42.1 million) - Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation (Paramount)
08. ¥4.67 billion ($38.4 million) - Hero 2 (Toho)
09. ¥4.48 billion ($37.1 million) - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (Toho)
10. ¥4.03 billion ($33.5 million) - Inside Out (Disney)
*2014 Release


2014 Box Office (Pages 171-223)
2014 Box Office Stats:
Spoiler: show
Yearly Box Office - ¥207.03 billion ($1.96 billion)
Yearly Admissions - 161.11 million
Japanese Film Share (58.4%) / Imported Film Share (41.6%)
Films Released - 1,184 (615 Japanese, 569 Imported)
Number of ¥1 billion earners - 56
Average Ticket Price - ¥1,285

Top 10 Films:
01. ¥25.48 billion ($249.6 million) - Frozen (Disney)
02. ¥8.76 billion ($85.1 million) - The Eternal Zero (Toho)*
03. ¥8.38 billion ($80.2 million) - Stand By Me, Doraemon (Toho)
04. ¥6.54 billion ($63.5 million) - Maleficent (Disney)
05. ¥5.22 billion ($50.0 million) - Rurouni Kenshin: Kyoto Inferno (Warner Bros.)
06. ¥4.42 billion ($43.4 million) - Thermae Romae II (Toho)
07. ¥4.35 billion ($40.6 million) - Rurouni Kenshin: The Legend Ends (Warner Bros.)
08. ¥4.26 billion ($41.1 million) - Lupin III vs. Detective Conan (Toho)*
09. ¥4.11 billion ($40.3 million) - Detective Conan: The Sniper from Another Dimension (Toho)
10. ¥3.58 billion ($35.2 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Great Demon - Peko and the Exploration Party (Toho)
*2013 Release


2013 Box Office (Pages 131-171)
2013 Box Office Stats:
Spoiler: show
Yearly Box Office - ¥194.23 billion ($1.98 billion)
Yearly Admissions - 155.88 million
Japanese Film Share (60.6%) / Imported Film Share (39.4%)
Films Released - 1,117 (591 Japanese, 526 Imported)
Number of ¥1 billion earners - 56
Average Ticket Price - ¥1,246

Top 10 Films:
01. ¥12.02 billion ($123.5 million) - The Wind Rises (Toho)
02. ¥8.96 billion ($91.3 million) - Monsters University (Disney)
03. ¥6.87 billion ($77.1 million) - One Piece Film Z (Toei)*
04. ¥5.89 billion ($65.3 million) - Les Miserables (Toho-Towa)*
05. ¥4.23 billion ($46.3 million) - Ted (Toho-Towa)
06. ¥3.98 billion ($43.2 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Secret Gadget Museum (Toho)
07. ¥3.63 billion ($37.1 million) - Detective Conan: Private Eye in the Distant Sea (Toho)
08. ¥3.33 billion ($34.3 million) - Midsummer Formula (Toho)
09. ¥3.25 billion ($33.8 million) - The After-Dinner Mysteries (Toho)
10. ¥3.20 billion ($33.2 million) - Like Father, Like Son (Gaga)
*2012 Release


2012 Box Office (Pages 94-131)
2012 Box Office Stats:
Spoiler: show
Yearly Box Office - ¥195.19 billion ($2.34 billion)
Yearly Admissions - 155.16 million
Japanese Film Share (65.7%) / Imported Film Share (34.3%)
Films Released - 983 (554 Japanese, 429 Imported)
Number of ¥1 billion earners - 58
Average Ticket Price - ¥1,258

Top 10 Films:
01. ¥7.33 billion ($93.6 million) - Umizaru: Brave Hearts (Toho)
02. ¥5.98 billion ($76.3 million) - Thermae Romae (Toho)
03. ¥5.97 billion ($75.9 million) - Bayside Shakedown: The Final (Toho)
04. ¥5.38 billion ($70.5 million) - Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol (Paramount)*
05. ¥5.30 billion ($64.0 million) - Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (Toei)
06. ¥4.22 billion ($53.9 million) - Wolf Children (Toho)
07. ¥3.87 billion ($48.9 million) - Resident Evil: Retribution (Sony)
08. ¥3.62 billion ($46.1 million) - Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles (Toho)
09. ¥3.61 billion ($46.1 million) - The Avengers (Disney)
10. ¥3.61 billion ($46.0 million) - Pokemon Best Wishes: Kyurem vs The Sacred Swordsmen (Toho)
*2011 Release


2011 Box Office (Pages 58-94)
2011 Box Office Stats:
Spoiler: show
Yearly Box Office - ¥181.19 billion ($2.34 billion)
Yearly Admissions - 144.72 million
Japanese Film Share (54.9%) / Imported Film Share (45.1%)
Films Released - 799 (441 Japanese, 358 Imported)
Number of ¥1 billion earners - 54
Average Ticket Price - ¥1,252

Top 10 Films:
01. ¥9.67 billion ($125.3 million) - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (Warner Bros.)
02. ¥8.87 billion ($114.9 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Disney)
03. ¥6.86 billion ($88.9 million) - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 1 (Warner Bros.)*
04. ¥4.46 billion ($57.8 million) - From Kokuriko Hill (Toho)
05. ¥4.33 billion ($56.1 million) - Pokemon Best Wishes: Victini and Zekrom/Victini and Reshiram (Toho)
06. ¥4.28 billion ($55.4 million) - A Ghost of a Chance (Toho)
07. ¥4.25 billion ($55.0 million) - Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Paramount)
08. ¥4.10 billion ($53.1 million) - Space Battleship Yamato (Toho)
09. ¥3.45 billion ($44.7 million) - Gantz (Toho)
10. ¥3.33 billion ($42.7 million) - SP: The Motion Picture 2 (Toho)
*2010 Release


2010 Box Office (Pages 05-58)
2010 Box Office Stats:
Spoiler: show
Yearly Box Office - ¥220.74 billion ($2.70 billion)
Yearly Admissions - 174.36 million
Japanese Film Share (53.6%) / Imported Film Share (46.4%)
Films Released - 716 (408 Japanese, 308 Imported)
Number of ¥1 billion earners - 48
Average Ticket Price - ¥1,266

Top 10 Films:
01. ¥15.60 billion ($188.8 million) - Avatar (Fox)
02. ¥11.80 billion ($142.8 million) - Alice in Wonderland (Disney)
03. ¥10.80 billion ($130.7 million) - Toy Story 3 (Disney)
04. ¥9.25 billion ($111.9 million) - Arrietty (Toho)
05. ¥8.04 billion ($97.3 million) - Umizaru: The Last Message (Toho)
06. ¥7.31 billion ($88.4 million) - Bayside Shakedown: Set the Guys Loose! (Toho)
07. ¥5.00 billion ($60.5 million) - Up (Disney)*
08. ¥4.80 billion ($58.1 million) - One Piece Film Strong World (Toei)*
09. ¥4.70 billion ($56.9 million) - Resident Evil: Afterlife (Sony)
10. ¥4.15 billion ($50.3 million) - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Zoroark - Master of Illusions (Toho)
*2009 Release

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: First Page Preview/Updated (Finally)
Great work, as usual! :)

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: First Page Preview/Updated (Finally)
Thanks. :)

I didn't realize that 2012 was the last time it was updated. I think I'll add a release schedule to it later this week.

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekday Estimates (01/04-08)
Weekday Estimates (01/04-08)

Monday Estimates (01/04)
¥285,000,000 ($2.38 million), +02%, ¥6,686,000,000 ($55.42 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Day 18
¥165,000,000 ($1.38 million), -27% ¥3,948,000,000 ($32.77 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories (Toho) Day 17
¥84,000,000 ($701,000), -10%, ¥2,186,000,000 ($18.06 million), Orange (Toho) Day 24
¥39,000,000 ($328,000), +03%, ¥2,601,000,000 ($21.48 million), 007: Spectre (Sony) Day 32
¥36,000,000 ($300,000), +56%, ¥1,315,000,000 ($10.91 million), Living With My Mother (Shochiku) Day 24


Tuesday Estimates (01/05)
¥160,000,000 ($1.35 million), -55%, ¥6,846,000,000 ($56.77 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Day 19
¥115,000,000 ($965,000), -57% ¥4,063,000,000 ($33.74 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories (Toho) Day 18
¥63,000,000 ($529,000), -50%, ¥2,249,000,000 ($18.59 million), Orange (Toho) Day 25
¥30,000,000 ($252,000), -26%, ¥425,000,000 ($3.53 million), Chibi Maruko-chan: The Movie (Toho) Day 15
¥18,000,000 ($151,000), -62%, ¥2,619,000,000 ($21.66 million), 007: Spectre (Sony) Day 33


Wednesday Estimates (01/06)
¥150,000,000 ($1.26 million), -61%, ¥6,996,000,000 ($58.03 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Day 20
¥130,000,000 ($1.10 million), -49% ¥4,193,000,000 ($34.84 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories (Toho) Day 19
¥57,000,000 ($481,000), -50%, ¥2,306,000,000 ($19.07 million), Orange (Toho) Day 26
¥37,000,000 ($312,000), -16%, ¥462,000,000 ($3.84 million), Chibi Maruko-chan: The Movie (Toho) Day 16
¥27,000,000 ($228,000), -10%, ¥1,359,000,000 ($11.28 million), Living With My Mother (Shochiku) Day 26


% changes versus last week.

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Best Selling Systems/Games (2015)
Top Best Selling Systems (2015):
01. 2,189,900 (-30%) / 20,036,956 (lifetime) - 3DS
02. 1,205,163 (+30%) / 2,130,733 (lifetime) - PS4
03. 959,342 (-16%) / 4,382,417 (lifetime) - PS Vita
04. 820,304 (+36%) / 2,943,587 (lifetime) - Wii U
05. 188,207 (-58%) / 10,206,741 (lifetime) - PS3
06. 18,093 (-61%) / 64,051 (lifetime) - Xbox One

Top 10 Best Selling Games (2015):
01. 2,441,977 / NEW, [11.28.15], Monster Hunter X (Capcom) [3DS]
02. 1,965,202 / NEW, [07.11.15], Yo-Kai Watch Busters: Red Cat Team / White Dog Squad (Level5) [3DS]
03. 1,282,880 / NEW, [07.30.15], Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer (Nintendo) [3DS]
04. 1,064,897 / NEW, [05.28.15], Splatoon (Nintendo) [Wii U]
05. 864,865 / NEW, [08.27.15], Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King (Square Enix) [3DS]
06. 671,194 / NEW, [09.10.15], Super Mario Maker (Nintendo) [Wii U]
07. 636,709 / NEW, [12.17.15], Monster Strike (Mixi) [3DS]

08. 625,223 (-69%) / 2,632,550, [12.13.14], Yo-Kai Watch 2: Shin Uchi (Level5) [3DS]
09. 607,343 / NEW, [06.11.15], Rhythm Heaven: The Best+ (Nintendo) [3DS]
10. 538,669 / NEW, [06.25.15], Fire Emblem Fates: Birthright/Conquest (Nintendo) [3DS]

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekday Estimates (01/04-08)
Weekday Estimates (01/04-08)

Monday Estimates (01/04)
¥285,000,000 ($2.38 million), +02%, ¥6,686,000,000 ($55.42 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Day 18
¥165,000,000 ($1.38 million), -27% ¥3,948,000,000 ($32.77 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories (Toho) Day 17
¥84,000,000 ($701,000), -10%, ¥2,186,000,000 ($18.06 million), Orange (Toho) Day 24
¥39,000,000 ($328,000), +03%, ¥2,601,000,000 ($21.48 million), 007: Spectre (Sony) Day 32
¥36,000,000 ($300,000), +56%, ¥1,315,000,000 ($10.91 million), Living With My Mother (Shochiku) Day 24


Tuesday Estimates (01/05)
¥160,000,000 ($1.35 million), -55%, ¥6,846,000,000 ($56.77 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Day 19
¥115,000,000 ($965,000), -57% ¥4,063,000,000 ($33.74 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories (Toho) Day 18
¥63,000,000 ($529,000), -50%, ¥2,249,000,000 ($18.59 million), Orange (Toho) Day 25
¥30,000,000 ($252,000), -26%, ¥425,000,000 ($3.53 million), Chibi Maruko-chan: The Movie (Toho) Day 14
¥18,000,000 ($151,000), -62%, ¥2,619,000,000 ($21.66 million), 007: Spectre (Sony) Day 33


Wednesday Estimates (01/06)
¥150,000,000 ($1.26 million), -61%, ¥6,996,000,000 ($58.03 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Day 20
¥130,000,000 ($1.10 million), -49% ¥4,193,000,000 ($34.84 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories (Toho) Day 19
¥57,000,000 ($481,000), -50%, ¥2,306,000,000 ($19.07 million), Orange (Toho) Day 26
¥37,000,000 ($312,000), -16%, ¥462,000,000 ($3.84 million), Chibi Maruko-chan: The Movie (Toho) Day 15
¥27,000,000 ($228,000), -10%, ¥1,359,000,000 ($11.28 million), Living With My Mother (Shochiku) Day 26


Thursday Estimates (01/07)
¥115,000,000 ($977,000), -58%, ¥7,111,000,000 ($59.01 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Day 21
¥58,000,000 ($493,000), -56% ¥4,251,000,000 ($35.33 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories (Toho) Day 20
¥40,000,000 ($340,000), -26%, ¥2,346,000,000 ($19.41 million), Orange (Toho) Day 27
¥18,000,000 ($153,000), +24%, ¥1,377,000,000 ($11.43 million), Living With My Mother (Shochiku) Day 27
¥16,000,000 ($136,000), -21%, ¥489,000,000 ($3.98 million), Chibi Maruko-chan: The Movie (Toho) Day 16


% changes versus last week.

And that concludes Winter Break/New Year this year. All businesses are operating as usual, and schools will be back in session this morning (Friday).

Note: Living With My Mother was very weak on New Years Eve last week (it's targeting the 50+ crowd), so it actually managed to increase Thursday-to-Thursday.

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Thu Jan 07, 2016 7:59 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Usual Locations Sat. Seating/Showtimes
Usual Locations - Saturday Seating & Showtimes (66% of Market)

[01/09]
TW (LW) Seats (% change), [Theaters/Showings], Film (Dis.) Week of Release
01 (01) 489,657 (-22%), [231/2,083], Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Week 4
02 (02) 321,091 (-30%), [224/1,297], Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Toho) Week 4
03 (--) 216,138 (---), [208/1,053], Life's Promise (Toho) NEW
04 (--) 203,781 (---), [224/1,072], Bridge of Spies (Fox) NEW
05 (--) 161,528 (---), [85/532], Kizumonogatari - Part 1: Blood and Iron (Toho Video Division) NEW

06 (03) 126,759 (-36%), [215/745], Orange (Toho) Week 5
07 (04) 78,523 (-41%), [171/558], Chibi Maruko-chan: The Movie (Toho) Week 3
08 (--) 75,728 (---), [73/350], Pink and Gray (Asmik Ace) NEW
09 (06) 72,652 (-38%), [222/477], 007: Spectre (Sony) Week 6
10 (05) 72,337 (-42%), [216/517], Living With My Mother (Shochiku) Week 5
11 (08) 56,372 (-34%), [218/401], Persona Non Grata (Toho) Week 6
12 (07) 51,975 (-44%), [167/377], Creed (Warner Bros.) Week 3
13 (09) 41,138 (-49%), [194/273], Kamen Rider X Kamen Rider Ghost & Drive Movie Wars (Toei) Week 5
14 (11) 34,969 (-30%), [200/232], Kainan 1890 (Toei) Week 6
15 (--) 27,909 (---), [71/209], Hana's Miso Soup (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) NEW
16 (--) 27,770 (---), [21/114], Garakowa: Restore the World (Pony Canyon) NEW

17 (13) 22,883 (-21%), [92/127], High Speed! Free! Starting Days (Shochiku) Week 6
18 (10) 16,943 (-78%), [91/107], The Peanuts Movie (Fox) Week 6
19 (14) 13,591 (-50%), [72/76], The Little Prince (Warner Bros.) Week 8
20 (16) 12,669 (-39%), [50/64], Girls und Panzer: The Movie (Showgate) Week 8
21 (--) 11,113 (---), [13/60], King of Prism by Pretty Rhythm (Avex Pictures) NEW
22 (--) 8,506 (---), [33/65], Tetsuya Kumakawa K-Ballet (Live Broadcast) NEW
23 (--) 8,352 (---), [13/55], Crimson Peak (Toho-Towa) NEW
24 (12) 8,337 (-76%), [58/58], Mozu (Toho) Week 10
25 (--) 6,606 (---), [16/54], Suite Francaise (Long Ride) NEW


2016's first wide openers, and many limited, debut this weekend, though none of them will be capable of supplanting Star Wars or Yo-Kai Watch from the top two positions.

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Thu Jan 07, 2016 9:08 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekday Estimates (01/04-08)
Weekday Estimates (01/04-08)

Monday Estimates (01/04)
¥285,000,000 ($2.38 million), +02%, ¥6,686,000,000 ($55.42 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Day 18
¥165,000,000 ($1.38 million), -27% ¥3,948,000,000 ($32.77 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories (Toho) Day 17
¥84,000,000 ($701,000), -10%, ¥2,186,000,000 ($18.06 million), Orange (Toho) Day 24
¥39,000,000 ($328,000), +03%, ¥2,601,000,000 ($21.48 million), 007: Spectre (Sony) Day 32
¥36,000,000 ($300,000), +56%, ¥1,315,000,000 ($10.91 million), Living With My Mother (Shochiku) Day 24


Tuesday Estimates (01/05)
¥160,000,000 ($1.35 million), -55%, ¥6,846,000,000 ($56.77 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Day 19
¥115,000,000 ($965,000), -57% ¥4,063,000,000 ($33.74 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories (Toho) Day 18
¥63,000,000 ($529,000), -50%, ¥2,249,000,000 ($18.59 million), Orange (Toho) Day 25
¥30,000,000 ($252,000), -26%, ¥425,000,000 ($3.53 million), Chibi Maruko-chan: The Movie (Toho) Day 14
¥18,000,000 ($151,000), -62%, ¥2,619,000,000 ($21.66 million), 007: Spectre (Sony) Day 33


Wednesday Estimates (01/06)
¥150,000,000 ($1.26 million), -61%, ¥6,996,000,000 ($58.03 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Day 20
¥130,000,000 ($1.10 million), -49% ¥4,193,000,000 ($34.84 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories (Toho) Day 19
¥57,000,000 ($481,000), -50%, ¥2,306,000,000 ($19.07 million), Orange (Toho) Day 26
¥37,000,000 ($312,000), -16%, ¥462,000,000 ($3.84 million), Chibi Maruko-chan: The Movie (Toho) Day 15
¥27,000,000 ($228,000), -10%, ¥1,359,000,000 ($11.28 million), Living With My Mother (Shochiku) Day 26


Thursday Estimates (01/07)
¥115,000,000 ($977,000), -58%, ¥7,111,000,000 ($59.01 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Day 21
¥58,000,000 ($493,000), -56% ¥4,251,000,000 ($35.33 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories (Toho) Day 20
¥40,000,000 ($340,000), -26%, ¥2,346,000,000 ($19.41 million), Orange (Toho) Day 27
¥18,000,000 ($153,000), +24%, ¥1,377,000,000 ($11.43 million), Living With My Mother (Shochiku) Day 27
¥16,000,000 ($136,000), -21%, ¥489,000,000 ($3.98 million), Chibi Maruko-chan: The Movie (Toho) Day 16


Friday Estimates (01/08)
¥105,000,000 ($895,000), -76%, ¥7,216,000,000 ($59.91 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Day 22
¥77,000,000 ($656,000), 0, ¥77,000,000 ($656,000), Kizumonogatari - Part 1: Blood and Iron (Toho Video Division) Day 1
¥32,000,000 ($273,000), 0, ¥32,000,000 ($273,000), Bridge of Spies (Fox) Day 1

¥23,000,000 ($196,000), -47%, ¥2,369,000,000 ($19.69 million), Orange (Toho) Day 28
¥20,000,000 ($171,000), -85% ¥4,271,000,000 ($35.51 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories (Toho) Day 21


% changes versus last week.

Everything is way, way down compared to last Friday (though Orange managed to hold on well) since last Friday was New Years Day (first of the month discounts and a holiday, so...).

As for the debuts...

Star Wars VII still posting a ¥100 million daily is impressive and it'll remain atop the box-office for at least two more weeks.

Yo-Kai Watch 2 is way down now that school is back in session since 90% of its audience consists of elementary aged children (and their parents). It'll be making an overwhelming majority of its earnings over the weekends from this point forward, so don't let the huge decline be misleading.

Kizumonogatari - Part 1: Blood and Iron performed very well, but these films are usually a bit frontloaded and don't perform as well over the weekend after opening on Friday. It's hard to predict these films and it's barely a wide release (108 screens), so it's doing just fine from what I can tell, and should break ¥100 million this weekend pretty easily.

Bridge of Spies had a mediocre first day, which is to be expected. Its audience is probably exclusively adults with a small portion of the senior crowd, so there won't be any initial frontloading due to the Friday release, and it'll hold fine going into the weekend. I'm not sure that it'll reach the ¥100 million mark, or if it does, it won't be by much.

I'll post the Weekend Forecast in a bit.

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Fri Jan 08, 2016 8:47 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekday Estimates (01/04-08)
Go TFA, Go!!! :D

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Fri Jan 08, 2016 9:26 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/09-10)
ImageImageImage

Weekend Forecast (01/09-10)/2016年01月09日-2016年01月10日
01 (01) ¥512,000,000 ($4.4 million), -38%, ¥7,730,000,000 ($64.3 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Week 4
02 (02) ¥255,000,000 ($2.2 million), -32%, ¥4,530,000,000 ($37.7 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories (Toho) Week 4
03 (--) ¥140,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥220,000,000 ($1.9 million), Kizumonogatari - Part 1: Blood and Iron (Toho Video Division) NEW
04 (03) ¥118,000,000 ($1.0 million), -29%, ¥2,490,000,000 ($20.7 million), Orange (Toho) Week 5
05 (--) ¥115,000,000 ($980,000), 0, ¥145,000,000 ($1.2 million), Bridge of Spies (Fox) NEW
06 (--) ¥90,000,000 ($765,000), 0, ¥90,000,000 ($765,000), Life's Promise (Toho) NEW
07 (--) ¥70,000,000 ($595,000), 0, ¥70,000,000 ($595,000), Pink and Gray (Asmik Ace) NEW

08 (04) ¥60,000,000 ($510,000), -50%, ¥2,720,000,000 ($22.7 million), 007: Spectre (Sony) Week 6
09 (05) ¥58,000,000 ($495,000), -47%, ¥1,450,000,000 ($12.1 million), Living With My Mother (Shochiku) Week 5
10 (06) ¥49,000,000 ($420,000), -33%, ¥555,000,000 ($4.5 million), Chibi Maruko-chan: The Movie (Toho) Week 3

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Fri Jan 08, 2016 9:31 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/09-10)
Usual Locations - Saturday Admissions (66% of Market)

[01/09]
01 (01) 99,899 (-42%), [235/2,179], Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Week 4
02 (02) 52,624 (-34%), [227/1,348], Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Toho) Week 4
03 (--) 46,948 (---), [86/542], Kizumonogatari Part 1 - Blood and Iron (Toho Video Division) NEW
04 (--) 26,992 (---), [227/1,127], Bridge of Spies (Fox) NEW
05 (--) 26,057 (---), [74/354], Pink and Gray (Asmik Ace) NEW

06 (03) 24,936 (-17%), [219/783], Orange (Toho) Week 5
07 (--) 20,009 (---), [213/1,101], Life's Promise (Toho) NEW
08 (04) 11,591 (-54%), [226/507], 007: Spectre (Sony) Week 6
09 (06) 10,211 (-33%), [175/584], Chibi Maruko-chan: The Movie (Toho) Week 3
10 (05) 9,756 (-53%), [221/547], Living With My Mother (Shochiku) Week 5
11 (--) 8,801 (---), [21/113], Garakowa: Restore the World (Pony Canyon) NEW
12 (07) 8,471 (-36%), [49/62], Girls und Panzer: The Movie (Showgate) Week 8
13 (08) 4,260 (-65%), [223/428], Persona Non Grata (Toho) Week 6
14 (09) 3,788 (-57%), [167/393], Creed (Warner Bros.) Week 3
15 (13) 3,647 (+24%), [94/132], High Speed! Free! Starting Days (Shochiku) Week 6
16 (10) 3,057 (-56%), [197/287], Kamen Rider X Kamen Rider Ghost & Drive Movie Wars (Toei) Week 5
17 (--) 2,717 (---), [13/54], Crimson Peak (Toho-Towa) NEW
18 (12) 2,689 (-42%), [203/243], Kainan 1890 (Toei) Week 6
19 (--) 2,111 (---), [13/58], King of Prism by Pretty Rhythm (Avex Pictures) NEW
20 (--) 1,647 (---), [71/216], Hana's Miso Soup (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) NEW

21 (11) 1,645 (-73%), [92/115], Th Peanuts Movie (Fox) Week 6
22 (--) 1,338 (---), [9/34], It Follows (Pony Canyon) NEW

>Star Wars VII is holding as expected, and a possible sub-40% weekend drop following last weekend's increase is solid. It doesn't appear it'll drop-off drastically after the holidays.

>Yo-Kai Watch 2 is also holding fine post the holidays. If it can manage to drop closer to 30% (or sub-30%) this weekend, it'll continue its streak of improving upon last year's weekend holds.

>Kizumonogatari Part 1 remains difficult to read, but the fact that its Saturday is well-below its Friday is evidence it's pretty frontloaded. It'll still, quite comfortably, exceed the ¥100 million mark this weekend, so that's impressive enough.

>Bridge of Spies is off to a slow start, but assuming it increases today (Sunday) or stays flat due to skewing older, it still has a good chance of exceeding the ¥100 million mark this weekend.

>Pink and Gray is a limited release (77% of locations accounted for above), so it won't make the Top 5, though it's still looking at a decent debut.

>Life's Promise is underwhelming and looks to miss a ¥100 million debut this weekend. Not too surprising, but still disappointing.

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Sat Jan 09, 2016 2:04 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/09-10)
Biggest Four Week Totals (2001-)

Four Week Gross (% of Total) - Film (Year)
¥10.75 billion (35.4%) - Spirited Away (2001)
¥8.45 billion (43.1%) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥8.43 billion (41.5%) - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥8.38 billion (71.0%) - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
¥8.13 billion (47.0%) - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥7.72 billion (??.?%) - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) *Projection*
¥7.71 billion (30.3%) - Frozen (2014)
¥7.55 billion (68.6%) - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
¥7.45 billion (68.3%) - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
¥7.21 billion (46.5%) - Ponyo (2008)
¥7.20 billion (41.5%) - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
¥7.11 billion (52.7%) - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥7.09 billion (74.5%) - Jurassic World (2015)
¥6.39 billion (66.1%) - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (2011)
¥6.37 billion (63.4%) - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
¥6.26 billion (69.1%) - The Da Vinci Code (2006)
¥6.23 billion (70.2%) - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
¥6.18 billion (79.2%) - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014)
¥6.15 billion (59.7%) - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
¥6.02 billion (70.4%) - Rookies (2009)
¥6 billion+

Biggest Fourth Weekends (2001-)

Fourth Weekend Gross (% change) - Film (Year)
¥972.2 million (-19%) - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥953.2 million (-06%) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥940.0 million (+06%) - Spirited Away (2001)
¥922.9 million (-21%) - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥850.9 million (-04%) - Frozen (2014)
¥765.7 million (+07%) - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge (2003)
¥755.2 million (-03%) - Ponyo (2008)
¥733.5 million (-27%) - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥683.5 million (-27%) - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
¥657.9 million (-05%) - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
¥618.6 million (-23%) - Rookies (2009)
¥617.1 million (+15%) - Toy Story 3 (2010)
¥604.4 million (-22%) - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
¥565.4 million (-12%) - Finding Nemo (2003)
¥556.0 million (-34%) - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
¥543.9 million (-07%) - Umizaru: The Last Message (2010)
¥542.8 million (+07%) - The Last Samurai (2003)
¥524.4 million (-26%) - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
¥521.6 million (-52%) - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
¥520.8 million (-01%) - Crying Out Love in the Center of the World (2004)
¥519.9 million (+09%) - Stand By Me, Doraemon (2014)
¥518.5 million (-01%) - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
¥510.3 million (-07%) - The Wind Rises (2013)
¥510.1 million (-20%) - Avatar (2009)
¥505.0 million (-40%) - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) *Projection*
¥503.4 million (-09%) - Monsters, Inc. (2002)
¥501.2 million (-27%) - The Da Vinci Code (2006)
¥500 million+

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Sat Jan 09, 2016 4:44 pm
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