It is going to look funny that Infinity War couldn't even out-gross The Boss Baby and The Greatest Showman.

Then again, Bland Panther only just out-grossed .... Geostorm.

It'll beat The Boss Baby, but The Greatest Showman is well out of range, of course.

Corpse, I was wondering if you have any predictions for Disney's trio of live-action films next year? Specifically- Dumbo, Aladdin, and The Lion King. I couldn't find any information on how big these films were in Japan (either box office or home video).

Most people are predicting the biggest numbers worldwide for The Lion King, followed by Aladdin and then Dumbo. Should we expect the same for Japan or something different? I know Dumbo is directed by Tim Burton, so maybe it can pull off big numbers like Alice in Wonderland? After seeing The Jungle Book underperform in Japan relative to expectations, I was thinking maybe talking photorealstic animals are not a huge draw there.

Yep. TGS was a monster in Japan that was out of IW's reach.

Oh yeah, it'll beat The Boss Baby ... by about 25%. Infinity War FTW!

Actually, it'll probably be about 10%...

Marvel/DC Box-Office History

Top Grossing Films:
¥7.50 billion ($59.2 million) / 5.14 million - Spider-Man (2002)
¥7.12 billion ($66.9 million) / 5.17 million - Spider-Man 3 (2007)
¥6.70 billion ($61.1 million) / 4.80 million - Spider-Man 2 (2004)
_____
¥3.61 billion ($46.2 million) / 2.38 million - The Avengers (2012)
¥3.21 billion ($26.0 million) / 2.16 million - Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015)
¥3.16 billion ($39.1 million) / 2.15 million - The Amazing Spider-Man (2012)
¥3.14 billion ($30.7 million) / 2.08 million - The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014)
¥3.04 billion ($27.8 million) / 2.04 million - Avengers: Infinity War (2018) [3 Weeks in Release]
¥3.00 billion ($20.0 million) / 2.55 million - Batman (1989)
_____
¥2.80 billion ($25.6 million) / 1.89 million - Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017)
¥2.63 billion ($24.1 million) / 1.73 million - Captain America: Civil War (2016)
¥2.57 billion ($26.4 million) / 1.70 million - Iron Man 3 (2013)
¥2.55 billion ($12.0 million) / 2.30 million - Superman II (1981)
¥2.04 billion ($19.2 million) / 1.40 million - Deadpool (2016)
_____
¥1.97 billion ($24.2 million) / 1.49 million - The Dark Knight Rises (2012)
¥1.87 billion ($16.4 million) / 1.22 million - Doctor Strange (2017)
¥1.86 billion ($16.9 million) / 1.21 million - Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016)
¥1.85 billion ($18.1 million) / 1.45 million - X-Men (2000)
¥1.80 billion ($15.9 million) / 1.42 million - X2: X-Men United (2003)
¥1.76 billion ($17.0 million) / 1.18 million - Suicide Squad (2016)
¥1.60 billion ($15.8 million) / 1.21 million - The Dark Knight (2008)
¥1.53 billion ($14.3 million) / 1.20 million - X-Men: The Last Stand (2006)
¥1.52 billion ($14.2 million) / 1.01 million - Black Panther (2018)
¥1.50 billion ($11.9 million) / 1.15 million - Superman Returns (2006)
¥1.40 billion ($14.1 million) / 1.06 million - Batman Begins (2005)
¥1.34 billion ($12.2 million) / 0.99 million - Wonder Woman (2017)
¥1.21 billion ($10.0 million) / 0.91 million - Ant-Man (2015)
¥1.20 billion ($13.7 million) / 0.93 million - Iron Man 2 (2010)
¥1.15 billion ($10.2 million) / 0.82 million - Thor: Ragnarok (2017)
¥1.14 billion ($10.1 million) / 0.78 million - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017)
¥1.10 billion ($9.8 million) / 0.75 million - Justice League (2017)
¥1.07 billion ($9.7 million) / 0.86 million - Guardians of the Galaxy (2014)
¥1.03 billion ($10.1 million) / 0.77 million - X-Men: Days of Future Past (2014)
_____
¥970 million ($9.8 million) - Man of Steel (2013)
¥950 million ($10.1 million) - Fantastic Four (2005)
¥900 million ($9.3 million) - Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (2007)
¥900 million ($9.8 million) - X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009)
¥850 million ($8.2 million) - Hulk (2003)
¥830 million ($6.9 million) - Daredevil (2003)
¥820 million ($8.4 million) - The Wolverine (2013)
¥800 million ($8.9 million) - Iron Man (2008)
¥750 million ($8.0 million) - X-Men: First Class (2011)
¥740 million ($6.8 million) - Logan (2017)
¥725 million ($6.9 million) - X-Men: Apocalypse (2016)
¥700 million ($6.8 million) - Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014)
¥650 million ($6.3 million) - Thor: The Dark World (2014)
¥550 million ($7.0 million) - Thor (2011)
¥420 million ($4.2 million) - Watchmen (2009)
¥400 million ($5.0 million) - Captain America: The First Avenger (2011)
¥370 million ($3.3 million) - Catwoman (2004)
¥240 million ($2.0 million) - The Incredible Hulk (2008)
¥200 million ($1.9 million) - Green Lantern (2011)

Marvel/DC

Before the 2010's, Walt Disney Animation wasn't very big in the market, with Aladdin being the best performer among those listed (no data on Dumbo, though), grossing ¥4.25 billion ($37.2 million) in 1993 -- making it the 53rd highest-grossing animated film in Japan. The Lion King is way down the list as the 85th highest-grossing animated film in Japan with ¥3.20 billion ($31.7 million) in 1994.

A lot has changed since then, so ultimately I don't believe looking back at how the animated films performed will reflect much on how their live-action re-imaginings will perform. I highly doubt any of them will do Alice in Wonderland or Beauty and the Beast numbers, but I'd bet on Aladdin probably doing the best of the three you mentioned. Animated/motion-capture films with human characters generally have more appeal than those with talking animals in the market.

And since you mentioned Alice specifically, it did so well due to the 3D craze of 2010, Tim Burton's brand name, and because the Alice in Wonderland property is a well-known and established story in Japan (it's used all the time in various mediums). Burton directing Dumbo will help, but I don't see much else going for it right now.

Thanks, Corpse!

I guess Aladdin having a princess as one of the main characters is also a boon for it in Japan. I also read that the Broadway show of The Lion King has been playing in Japan since 1998, so hopefully it has built up some goodwill and recognition in the market since the animated film's theatrical release. It would be great if all 3 live-action films managed to surpass the blockbuster milestone (¥5 billion).

I am sure Aladdin will do great in OS markets (specially Asia) because its a much better known character. TLK will do big but definitely come second to Aladdin in OS markets. Dumbo will be a distant third.

I am not sure about that. The Lion King outgrossed Aladdin significantly in OS markets when it was released. The Broadway show is also by far the most successful production ever with over $8 billion in ticket sales since its debut.

Wasn't TLK re-released several times even in OS markets? I think that inflated is OS numbers as well as domestic numbers and in regards to the show I don't think that would always translate to BO, it might actually hinder the movie's BO if it gets less-than-stellar reviews.

The Lion King was re-released twice, but it still made over $313 million domestic and $450 million OS in its original run. For comparison, Aladdin grossed over $217 million domestic and $286 million OS.

I guess I stand corrected then. Not sure why Aladdin wasn't bigger back than. TLK was definitely a beast in its original run though I still feel Aladdin is slightly more popular in Asia.

I wonder if for the opposite there has been any films for instance where it had in Japan weak box office results but developed good tv broadcast ratings and good home video and rental sales?

Definitely. I'm positive there are many examples, but the one that comes to mind first is Despicable Me. The first film didn't do much at the box-office, unsurprising since it was a non-Disney/Pixar release, but it had very good home video rentals/sales and strong TV ratings, which resulted in Despicable Me 2 more than doubling the box-office results of the first film. And then the second film went on to have strong home video rentals/sales and TV ratings as well, while the first film continued (and continues) to have solid home video sales/TV ratings, too.

All of this eventually resulted in Minions becoming the highest-grossing non-Disney/Pixar imported animated film in the market by a huge margin (doubling Shrek 2), and Despicable Me 3 later broke its record by a wide margin.

Did Batman Ninja come out in Japan yet in any capacity? If so, is it doing well? What's the reception to it?

You mean Ninja Batman, not Batman Ninja.

It's receiving a theatrical release from Warner Bros. on June 15th.

I don't know too much about the film besides it taking place in Feudal Japan, and has my two favorite voice actors, Tara Strong and Grey DeLisle, reprising their roles of Harley Quinn/Poison Ivy and Catwoman/Selina Kyle, respectively, but the film does have a full Japanese voice cast for its release in Japan as well.

I'll get around to watching it pretty soon.

Thanks.

Its title is Batman Ninja, though. Don't know what it is in Japanese, but we're typing in English on this site!

FYI

How many screens is the latest Godzilla anime playing on? Is it another smaller release due to the inevitable Netflix debut in a couple months?