Cool to see TGS in Top 3 Yearly charts for now. Japan is now its second biggest OS markets after UK.

Next month Darkest Hour is the one to observe, I'm wonder if Japan will want to see movie in which Oscars winning make-up artist is Japanese person.

Spring Break technically doesn't begin for a couple days, but some films are beginning to benefit (plus there's a national holiday tomorrow), so I'm going to post estimated dailies starting this week -- a few days earlier than usual. I'll have numbers for Monday and Tuesday up in a bit.

Spring Break - Daily Estimates (03/19-04/06)

Monday (03/19)
¥85 million ($800,000), 0, ¥695 million ($6.6 million), Coco (Disney) Day 4
¥60 million ($565,000), +144%, ¥2.40 billion ($22.6 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Toho) Day 17
¥55 million ($520,000), 0, ¥310 million ($2.9 million), Chihayafuru: Conclusion (Toho) Day 3
¥45 million ($425,000), -12%, ¥3.29 billion ($31.0 million), The Greatest Showman (Fox) Day 32
¥30 million ($280,000), 0, ¥255 million ($2.3 million), Pretty Cure Super Stars! (Toei) Day 3
¥30 million ($280,000), -35%, ¥625 million ($5.9 million), Sakura: Guardian in the North (Toei) Day 10
¥25 million ($235,000), -35%, ¥465 million ($4.3 million), Last Winter, We Parted (Warner Bros.) Day 10
¥25 million ($235,000), -40%, ¥1.24 billion ($11.6 million), Black Panther (Disney) Day 19
¥15 million ($140,000), -43%, ¥1.37 billion ($12.7 million), Legend of the Demon Cat (Toho/Kadokawa) Day 24
¥10 million ($95,000), -39%, ¥660 million ($6.1 million), The Shape of Water (Fox) Day 19

Tuesday (03/20)
¥95 million ($895,000), 0, ¥790 million ($7.5 million), Coco (Disney) Day 5
¥75 million ($705,000), +348%, ¥2.48 billion ($23.3 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Toho) Day 18
¥55 million ($520,000), 0, ¥365 million ($3.4 million), Chihayafuru: Conclusion (Toho) Day 4
¥50 million ($470,000), +13%, ¥3.34 billion ($31.5 million), The Greatest Showman (Fox) Day 33
¥30 million ($280,000), -32%, ¥655 million ($6.2 million), Sakura: Guardian in the North (Toei) Day 11
¥25 million ($235,000), -20%, ¥1.26 billion ($11.9 million), Black Panther (Disney) Day 20
¥25 million ($235,000), 0, ¥280 million ($2.6 million), Pretty Cure Super Stars! (Toei) Day 4
¥20 million ($190,000), -15%, ¥485 million ($4.5 million), Last Winter, We Parted (Warner Bros.) Day 11
¥15 million ($140,000), -24%, ¥1.38 billion ($12.8 million), Legend of the Demon Cat (Toho/Kadokawa) Day 25
¥15 million ($140,000), -11%, ¥675 million ($6.3 million), The Shape of Water (Fox) Day 20

% changes versus same day last week.

Note: Spring Break doesn't technically start until March 23rd/24th, but Wednesday is a national holiday and films are beginning to benefit from the Spring box-office season, so I'm posting the dailies a little early this year. The numbers (and holds/increases) will continue to grow as we get closer to April.

A few things to know about Spring Break and its impact on the Japanese Box-Office:

*Spring Break marks the end of the School Year in Japan, with the new School Year beginning in early April.
*Films targeting children (especially under 10) benefit the most, as seen above by Doraemon already experiencing huge increases. Films with significant audiences consisting of teens (students) also enjoy healthy gains during the lucrative season.
*Films that attract adult audiences see little benefit from the holiday period, but still see slight boosts.
*After the Big Three Holiday Periods of Golden Week, Obon Week, and New Year, Spring Break is the next in box-office revenue during the year.

Corpse is it then safe to say that Showman is attracting teens and should see healthy increases in the coming week?

Also did Coco see an increase from Sunday or any idea how its dailies are from the weekend dailies?

The Greatest Showman definitely isn't attracting too many teens, otherwise its regular dailies wouldn't be very good when they've been very strong. Based on its weekday performance, and somewhat high average ticket price (~7% above the national average), it has to be largely appealing to adults. Overall, though, I think it's bringing in a very broad audience.

Coco increased on Sunday, which is the norm in Japan, if that's what you meant. Its dailies so far are below Saturday and Sunday, but Wednesday is going to be so strong that it'll easily be its biggest day so far.

It's early, but Wednesday is going to be way bigger than last Saturday or Sunday, and is going to be pretty close to matching last weekend's entire earnings across the board. I'm anticipating Wednesday to be 4-5x greater than yesterday for most films, and for the Top 10 to probably more than double whatever the Top 10 in the U.S. gross.

There's also going to be quite the surprise entry when I do Wednesday's estimates tomorrow, a film that waited to open today actually, and it's totally bonkers -- DON"T LOOK IT UP! Let it be a surprise, and it is, I promise. It's a true WTF and I'll have a lot of research to do on it.

Ah yes, I assume you're referring to the movie I was asking about a few months ago?

Really surprised at the result too. Hope it's a reversal of fortune for future films released under this studio. On a related note, I've noticed Coco seems to be skewing older. It's usually behind Doraemon until the late afternoons/evenings start to outpace it. I'm guessing this means lesser increases during Spring Break but also better holds once kids go back to school. It's an interesting trade-off.

Yeah, Coco, while attracting families/kids, is also bringing in a lot of adults based on its daily patterns and slightly high average ticket price for an animated feature.

Most animated films, however, unless from a notable kids show like Doraemon or Crayon Shin-chan, do appeal equally, if not moreso, to adults rather than children in Japan. And this is almost always true for Western animated films from Disney/Pixar, Illumination, Dreamworks, etc., because Japanese children are growing up watching domestic animated shows and relate to those, not an unknown property.

I'll have Wednesday's estimates up here soon.

The big surprise?



The Boss Baby, opening to about ¥300 million ($2.8 million) and in third place on its first day is without a doubt one of the biggest shockers I've ever seen at the Japan box office. I don't even have to do any research to declare this as the biggest single day for any Dreamworks Animation film ever in Japan by a huge margin (probably three times higher). In fact, its first day is bigger than the opening weekends of any Dreamworks Animation film.

If you follow the Japanese box-office, or just my thread, you'll know that outside of Disney and Pixar, and more recently Illumination..., western animated films never perform well in Japan. And it got so bad for studios like Dreamworks Animation, that their films stopped receiving theatrical releases entirely in 2012 due to their abysmal returns.

When Universal acquired distribution rights of Dreamworks Animation Studios, in turn that meant that Toho-Towa (subsidiary of Toho) would then get those distribution rights in Japan because they own Universal's distribution rights in the market. The Boss Baby is Toho-Towa's first release following these acquisitions, and it's clearly a major win for them and Dreamworks Animation.

And here are my explanations:

>First Dreamworks Animation film to be released by Toho-Towa helped with marketing, and its overall release in theaters.
>First Dreamworks Animation film to even receive a wide theatrical release since 2012 may have created interest.
>Oscar nomination, maybe?
>The family aspect of the film perhaps appealed to audiences in Japan. Sibling relations are usually easy sells.
>It's Spring Break, and it opened on a holiday, so its first day would have obviously benefited... but this result?

Indeed surprising - what was the last DreamWorks Film to open in Japan?

Any idea what the total will look like?

Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted, six years ago, was the last wide theatrical release. Or really, the only real theatrical release to be honest. I recall Mr. Peabody & Sherman and Home being released in a couple theaters for a week or so.

I really have no idea what The Boss Baby will go on to gross. Its first day suggests maybe ¥2.5-3 billion ($25-30 million) is doable, but it could collapse in three weeks (post-Spring Break) if it's skewing very young, or maybe it'll hang on long enough to reach Golden Week in early May for another boost. Japan could end up one of its three strongest international markets. It'll be an interesting one to track.

It seems animated films generally have more success in Japan than live-action? I would imagine it's not often in another market that the Top 3 consists entirely of animated films. It's also refreshing to see all three films thriving together instead of hurting each other's gross.

Based on average ticket price, is Boss Baby attracting a similar audience to Coco (more adults than purely kids)?

4 films in the Top 5 are animated. Since animated films aren't limited to any single demographic, they rarely ever compete with one another and co-exist just fine. There's pretty much no overlap among demographics for the four animated films in the Top 5 currently.

For example:

Doraemon is attracting the very young and their families, along with long-time fans of the series.
Coco is attracting the Disney/Pixar faithful and some adult audiences.
Pretty Cure Super Stars! is attracting its fanbase and otaku crowd.

It's too early to say which demos that The Boss Baby is attracting, but based on its ticket sales throughout yesterday, I'd say its appealing to families, of course, just not as young as Doraemon or as old as Coco. I won't know its average ticket price until its gross and admissions come in.

This is a good time to explain the average ticket price and what sort of audience a film is attracting depending on where its own average ticket price is:

There are many, many different ticket prices a moviegoer ends up paying depending on who they are. If you're an adult male in the workforce, you're going to pay the highest for a movie ticket; if you're a senior citizen, you'll be paying among the lowest ticket prices; if you're a woman, you'll pay less on the weekdays (Wed.); if you're a parent with a young child, you'll be paying less thanks your kids' age. And so on, and so forth.

There are many more examples, so here's a quick guide:

¥1600+: Attracting almost exclusively audiences that are willing to pay for extras or special events that go along with their admission; films that have a significant fanbase (95%+ share).
¥1500-1599: Attracting an audience that really enjoys premium viewings (IMAX, 3D, etc.); films with minimal 2D showings.
¥1400-1499: Attracting almost exclusively adult men; films with good premium ticket sales (IMAX, 3D, etc.).
¥1301-1399: Attracting a significant adult audience; films that are skewing toward males (men receive the fewest discount offers on tickets), and has low premium ticket sales (IMAX, 3D, etc.).
¥1300: National Average. Despite being a bit down this list, the yearly average hovers around this price thanks to the most-successful films each year having broad audiences and falling below it.
¥1200-1299: Attracting an audience that receives discounted tickets (such as women, students/teens, or seniors) and/or slightly younger moviegoers (8-12); films with little or no premium (IMAX, 3D, etc.) showings; films for general audiences.
¥1100-1199: Attracting a very young audience and their families, but also very old audiences; films that target exclusively toward pre-school aged children or seniors; films with zero premium showings (IMAX, 3D, etc.).

Thanks for the informative guide! I read that 3D share has decreased a lot in recent years for Japan, so it must be rare for a film to be majority premium format?

I wonder how this will affect a film like Avatar 2 when it releases in 2020 considering the first film relied so much on 3D.

Wow at The Boss Baby!! It is crazy OD and given that the WoM is generally decent everywhere I think it can have good legs here. Plus its wide release and this big of an opening from Dreamworks might generate additional interest going forward. Really encouraging for Dreamworks animation going forward.

3D was extremely popular in 2010 and 2011, with most high-profile releases achieving 80%+ 3D shares. Then 3D began declining in 2012 and 2013 to shares of 50% or less (much less for animated films), and by 2014 it dropped dramatically to around 25%.

However, 3D has risen again over the past few years, and high-profile releases have been coming in around 40% or so.

So I knew you mentioned Wednesday will be huge but why was is THAT huge. I remember you've mentioned that women have cheaper tickets is that the reason its SO BIG?

Also great to see TBB overtaking Coco in dailies. I wonder where it will end up specially now it broke out as big as it is in Japan.

Boss Baby's matinee shows are much stronger than Coco's, so it is evidently more appealing to young children. The evening shows aren't far off Coco's either based on the limited sample I've seen so far. Boss Baby seems to be attracting a mix of Doraemon and Coco's audience.

First Illumination, now even Dreamworks. Japan's homologation seems complete.

Wednesday was Vernal Equinox Day. Wednesday is already the biggest weekday, thanks to it being Ladies' Day, so when a holiday falls on a Wednesday, it's a pretty significant boost.