Nice that The Shape of Water actually increased with actuals.

TSoW increase isn't really surprising specially since it won both BD and BP at Oscars.

I am more interested to know how Bungo Stray Dogs increased. Was there an expansion or something?

Nobody said it was surprising. But estimates pegged at a slight decrease.

Corpse, do you know what the situation of the Olaf Short is in Japan? Since it was shown before Coco originally in the US, but was shown separately as its own thing in the UK (where it actually charted in the top 5 for the weekend! We sure love frozen!)

So will Japan have it in front of Coco, released on its own or just not released at all? (Which seems silly since the Japs love frozen)

It wasn't in response to your comment.

BTW Corpse mentioned during estimates that there is a possibility of an increase, plus it was estimated to stay almost flat in the first place whereas Bungo Dogs wasn't even estimated inside Top 10

The Shape of Water increasing is still impressive, even if it's not exactly surprising, because it didn't gain any additional theaters or screens.

Bungo Stray Dogs increasing is peculiar, and I don't have a clear reason for it. Limited, or near limited, releases can be hard to predict at times, especially if they're based on a known source that has a fanbase. My guess is that there was perhaps a giveaway at theaters for those who saw the film this weekend, or maybe the cast and crew did some meet and greets at certain theaters which always boosts attendance.

I don't see anything regarding it at all. Short-films attached to full-length films are usually advertised as their own separate film, so I'm assuming it's not attached to Coco in Japan.

If anything, the short might be playing on TV this Friday or during Spring Break in a couple weeks. TV broadcasts of films is still significant in Japan (popular films still manage 10-20 million+ viewers), so there's plenty of advantages of broadcasting it instead.

EDIT: I found an article from yesterday advertising that Shinya Kanda and Takako Matsu will sing the songs featured in the Olaf short that will be screened before Coco (or Remember Me in Japan). "Olaf" isn't in the Japanese title of the short at all, it's called Anna and the Snow Queen: Family Memories. Frozen is called Anna and the Snow Queen in Japan, so I guess it makes sense -- the sisters, and their bond, are the attraction, not Olaf.

Do you think this could have any significant effect on Coco's performance, given that Japan loves Frozen? Especially if they're marketing it more so as an Anna/Elsa adventure than an Olaf one.

Probably not. I don't recall any clear evidence that the first Frozen short helped Cinderella in any way. Not to say it won't bring in some people, perhaps, but I'm sure it'll be unnoticeable.

Coco is opening on Friday, ahead of the weekend, so its performance then could be an indicator on how it'll perform over the weekend. Just remember that Friday is very much apart of the weekdays, and isn't close to being as strong as Saturday or Sunday in the market. Friday isn't even as strong as Monday or Wednesday.

The Olaf's Adventure shows that Disney just can't wait to release Frozen 2 and rolling with the money again, they manage to insert six songs into twenty minutes animation. I'd call this 'Music Video Medley' instead.

Quick update following Saturday:

Coco followed Moana's daily pattern very closely and finished roughly 21% behind it for the day. Its weekend forecast should be very accurate, and it now has the slight edge to win the weekend after taking Saturday.

Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island looks to fall a little harder than the forecast, which probably isn't too surprising after its excellent second weekend hold. I'm predicting it'll drop to second place still, but since it'll probably win Sunday, it could make the battle for #1 this weekend a toss-up once again.

Chihayafuru: Conclusion and Pretty Cure Super Stars! are in a close race to make the Top 3, and it'll come down to how each performs on Sunday to determine which film comes in third. Their weekend results shouldn't differ too much from the forecast.

The Greatest Showman will deliver another good hold, the best in the Top 10, while the remaining holdovers are looking at above average drops.

Coco's thematics could potentially connect a lot with Japan's audience. Is the low opening due to an overestimation of this connection, or Pixar's brand has just become poor in Japan?

I don't think it's low, really. The opening is right in the middle among Pixar releases, and the top half includes the duos of Finding Nemo/Dory and Monsters Inc./University which are sort of exceptions given their popularity in the market. Any new Pixar release shouldn't be compared to them. Up only opened higher than the standard release for Pixar because it was released when the short-lived 3D craze began.

Having said that, Pixar's brand has fallen in Japan. The release of several mixed-received sequels, and poor original attempts (Brave, The Good Dinosaur) from 2011 onward has hit them hard while Walt Disney Animation continues to release top-tier animated films in comparison and is getting higher box-office results now. The rise of Walt Disney Animation and decline of Pixar happened practically at the same time (~2011/2012).

Below are the highest-grossing animated films that have grossed over ¥3 billion, the "hit" milestone -- think of it as the $150 million mark in the U.S. if you need a "hit" figure to consider in USD.

I've bolded and colored all Walt Disney Animation and Pixar releases since 2011 (Walt Disney in blue; Pixar in red), the year that the two studios kinda swapped popularity and success in the market.

You'll notice that besides the sequels of Monsters University and Finding Dory (and they declined compared to their predecessors, especially Dory), Pixar has struggled over the past decade while Walt Disney Animation is now releasing blockbusters (¥5 billion+) after never being much of a box-office presence until this decade. You'll also notice several Pixar releases not even grossing enough to make the list...

Highest Grossing Animated Films (¥3 billion+)

01. ¥30.80 billion ($249.0 million) - Spirited Away (2001)
02. ¥25.48 billion ($249.6 million) - Frozen (2014)
03. ¥25.03 billion ($236.5 million) - Your Name. (2016)
04. ¥19.60 billion ($190.0 million) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
05. ¥19.30 billion ($165.5 million) - Princess Mononoke (1997)
06. ¥15.50 billion ($156.0 million) - Ponyo (2008)
07. ¥12.02 billion ($123.5 million) - The Wind Rises (2013)
08. ¥11.00 billion ($102.4 million) - Finding Nemo (2003)
09. ¥10.80 billion ($130.7 million) - Toy Story 3 (2010)
10. ¥9.37 billion ($76.8 million) - Monsters, Inc. (2002)
11. ¥9.25 billion ($111.9 million) - Arrietty (2010)
12. ¥9.18 billion ($77.7 million) - Big Hero 6 (2014)
13. ¥8.96 billion ($91.3 million) - Monsters University (2013)
14. ¥8.38 billion ($80.2 million) - Stand By Me, Doraemon (2014)
15. ¥7.80 billion ($66.2 million) - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014)
16. ¥7.65 billion ($62.9 million) - Tales from Earthsea (2006)
17. ¥7.63 billion ($70.6 million) - Zootopia (2016)
18. ¥7.54 billion ($67.8 million) - Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back! (1998)
19. ¥7.31 billion ($66.1 million) - Despicable Me 3 (2017)
20. ¥6.89 billion ($61.6 million) - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (2017)
21. ¥6.87 billion ($77.1 million) - One Piece Film Z (2012)
22. ¥6.83 billion ($65.8 million) - Finding Dory (2016)
23. ¥6.46 billion ($54.4 million) - The Cat Returns (2002)
24. ¥6.36 billion ($64.8 million) - Pokemon: Revelation Lugia (1999)
25. ¥6.33 billion ($58.1 million) - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (2016)
26. ¥5.85 billion ($47.7 million) - The Boy and the Beast (2015)
27. ¥5.53 billion ($46.5 million) - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (2015)
28. ¥5.30 billion ($64.0 million) - Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (2012)
29. ¥5.26 billion ($51.1 million) - The Incredibles (2004)
30. ¥5.21 billion ($42.9 million) - Minions (2015)
31. ¥5.18 billion ($50.3 million) - One Piece Film Gold (2016)
32. ¥5.16 billion ($46.1 million) - Moana (2017)
33. ¥5.11 billion ($45.4 million) - Sing (2017)
34. ¥5.02 billion ($47.2 million) - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: The Rise of Darkrai (2007)
35. ¥5.00 billion ($60.5 million) - Up (2009)
36. ¥4.90 billion ($40.2 million) - Dinosaur (2000)
37. ¥4.85 billion ($45.8 million) - Pokemon: Spell of the Unown (2001)
38. ¥4.80 billion ($58.1 million) - One Piece Film Strong World (2009)
38. ¥4.80 billion ($53.3 million) - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Giratina and the Sky Warrior (2008)
40. ¥4.67 billion ($51.6 million) - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Arceus and the Jewel of Life (2009)
41. ¥4.50 billion ($38.4 million) - Pokemon Advanced: Jirachi - Wishmaker (2003)
42. ¥4.48 billion ($37.1 million) - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (2015)
43. ¥4.47 billion ($57.8 million) - From Up on Poppy Hill (2011)
44. ¥4.45 billion ($32.5 million) - Porco Rosso (1992)
45. ¥4.43 billion ($39.6 million) - Doraemon: Great Adventure in the Antarctic (2017)
46. ¥4.38 billion ($39.1 million) - Pokemon Advanced: Destiny Deoxys (2004)
47. ¥4.33 billion ($56.1 million) - Pokemon Best Wishes: White - Victini and Zekrom/Black - Victini and Reshiram (2011)
48. ¥4.30 billion ($38.9 million) - Pokemon Advanced: Lucario and the Mystery of Mew (2005)
49. ¥4.26 billion ($41.2 million) - Lupin III vs. Detective Conan (2013)
50. ¥4.25 billion ($37.2 million) - Aladdin (1993)
51. ¥4.24 billion ($41.1 million) - The Secret Life of Pets (2016)
52. ¥4.22 billion ($53.9 million) - Wolf Children (2012)
53. ¥4.16 billion ($50.3 million) - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Zoroark - Master of Illusions (2010)
54. ¥4.12 billion ($36.7 million) - Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (2016)
55. ¥4.11 billion ($40.3 million) - Detective Conan: Dimensional Sniper (2014)
56. ¥4.05 billion ($40.3 million) - Pom Poco (1994)
57. ¥4.04 billion ($33.5 million) - Inside Out (2015)
58. ¥4.00 billion ($44.2 million) - Wall-E (2008)
58. ¥4.00 billion ($44.2 million) - Evangelion 2.0: You Can (Not) Advance (2009)
60. ¥3.98 billion ($43.4 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Secret Gadget Museum (2013)
61. ¥3.93 billion ($33.1 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Space Record of Space Heroes (2015)
62. ¥3.90 billion ($36.3 million) - Ratatouille (2007)
62. ¥3.90 billion ($32.5 million) - Pokemon: Celebi - Voice of the Forest (2001)
64. ¥3.74 billion ($31.1 million) - Dragon Ball Z: Revival of F (2015)
65. ¥3.63 billion ($37.1 million) - Detective Conan: Private Eye in the Distant Sea (2013)
66. ¥3.62 billion ($46.2 million) - Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles (2012)
67. ¥3.61 billion ($46.1 million) - Pokemon Best Wishes: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman - Keldeo (2012)
68. ¥3.58 billion ($35.1 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Great Demon - Peko and the Exploration Party (2014)
69. ¥3.55 billion ($32.3 million) - Pokemon: I Choose You! (2017)
70. ¥3.54 billion ($30.0 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Great Adventure into the Underworld (2007)
71. ¥3.53 billion ($34.0 million) - Memories of Marnie (2014)
72. ¥3.50 billion ($35.6 million) - Detective Conan: The Raven Chaser (2009)
73. ¥3.45 billion ($29.9 million) - Toy Story 2 (2000)
74. ¥3.40 billion ($28.2 million) - Pokemon Advanced: Pokemon Ranger and the Temple of the Sea (2006)
74. ¥3.40 billion ($30.3 million) - Detective Conan: The Phantom of Barker Street (2002)
76. ¥3.37 billion ($32.1 million) - Doraemon: Nobita and the Green Giant Legend (2008)
77. ¥3.29 billion ($29.7 million) - Mary and the Witch's Flower (2017)
78. ¥3.28 billion ($42.3 million) - Detective Conan: The Eleventh Striker (2012)
78. ¥3.28 billion ($27.6 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Dinosaur (2006)
80. ¥3.26 billion ($28.2 million) - Yo-Kai Watch: Great Adventure of the Flying Whale and the Double Worlds, Nyan! (2016)
81. ¥3.20 billion ($31.7 million) - The Lion King (1994)
81. ¥3.20 billion ($28.6 million) - Detective Conan: Crossroad in the Ancient Capital (2003)
81. ¥3.20 billion ($35.2 million) - Detective Conan: Lost Ship in the Sky (2010)
84. ¥3.17 billion ($33.0 million) - Pokemon Best Wishes: ExtremeSpeed Genesect - Mewtwo Awakens (2013)
85. ¥3.16 billion ($33.6 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Great Merman Sea Adventure (2010)
86. ¥3.13 billion ($39.8 million) - Detective Conan: Quarter of Silence (2011)
87. ¥3.05 billion ($29.0 million) - Doraemon: Nobita and the Legend of the Sun King (2000)
87. ¥3.05 billion ($28.9 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Wannyan Space-Time Odyssey (2004)
89. ¥3.03 billion ($26.8 million) - Detective Conan: The Private Eyes' Requiem (2006)
90. ¥3.01 billion ($39.0 million) - Cars 2 (2011)
91. ¥3.00 billion ($32.4 million) - Wreck-It Ralph (2013)
91. ¥3.00 billion ($25.8 million) - Doraemon: Nobita and the Winged Braves (2001)

Brave, The Good Dinosaur, and Cars 3 aren't even on the list, not even close. You can even combine the grosses from all three releases, and still only get ¥4.42 billion -- barely enough to crack the Top 50.

Corpse,

I known this very rarely happens but has their been some movies who's opening weekend made a billion yen over the two day weekend of Sat/Sun and also making over one million admissions during the same two day weekend of Sat/Sun?

It's very rare now (2010-) happening on only two occasions (Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! and One Piece Film Z), but it has happened eighteen times overall.

It was easier to do from 2000-2008/09 because blockbuster releases often received early showings/previews a week before release that were included as part of their opening weekend grosses (sometimes these early showings were equal to, or greater than, a film's actual opening weekend). Early showings/previews have been excluded from opening weekend grosses since mid-2010, and it's incredibly rare for any film to have previews anymore.

Nowadays, opening above ¥1 billion and 1 million admissions has gotta be done strictly over the two-day weekend frame, and requires ~60% max capacity to be met. Depending on the film, it has to sustain a 8-9 hour string of showings selling out (90% min.) both days at ~75% of its theaters to achieve it, typically from ~8am-4pm for young skewing films and ~12pm-8pm for older skewing films. Only two films have met this criteria since 2008 (mentioned above) with a couple more coming close (seen below).

Here are the biggest opening weekends in the Modern Era:

Biggest Modern Opening Weekends (2008-) [REVENUE]
Modern Rank (All-Time Rank) Revenue [Screen Count] - Film (Year)
01 (09) ¥1,628,893,000 [408] - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014)
02 (17) ¥1,372,054,050 [300] - One Piece Film Z (2012)
03 (18) ¥1,316,539,200 [859] - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
04 (19) ¥1,301,851,375 [922] - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (2011)
05 (20) ¥1,286,928,000 [368] - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (2017)
06 (23) ¥1,245,023,900 [958] - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
07 (24) ¥1,225,913,932 [428] - Rookies (2009)
08 (25) ¥1,209,158,900 [353] - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (2016)
09 (27) ¥1,205,116,126 [800] - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
10 (28) ¥1,155,771,000 [739] - One Piece Film Gold (2016)
11 (29) ¥1,133,513,323 [224] - Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (2012)
12 (30) ¥1,125,800,000 [937] - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (2017)
13 (31) ¥1,065,362,800 [773] - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
14 (32) ¥1,057,808,800 [434] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (2015)
15 (33) ¥1,048,271,900 [989] - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017)
16 (34) ¥1,038,295,232 [190] - One Piece Film Strong World (2009)
17 (35) ¥1,034,459,534 [481] - Ponyo (2008)
18 (38) ¥1,005,428,333 [409] - Boys Over Flowers: Final (2008)
¥1 Billion+

Biggest Modern Opening Weekends (2008-) [ADMISSIONS]
Modern Rank (All-Time Rank) Admissions [Screen Count] - Film (Year)
01 (02) 1,484,916 [408] - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014)
02 (14) 1,140,081 [300] - One Piece Film Z (2012)
03 (19) 987,568 [368] - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (2017)
04 (20) 987,387 [428] - Rookies (2009)
05 (21) 974,577 [434] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (2015)
06 (22) 933,781 [353] - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (2016)
07 (26) 880,697 [922] - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (2011)
08 (27) 828,149 [859] - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
09 (28) 820,830 [739] - One Piece Film Gold (2016)
10 (29) 819,738 [190] - One Piece Film Strong World (2009)
11 (30) 812,557 [481] - Ponyo (2008)
12 (32) 805,350 [409] - Boys Over Flowers: Final (2008)
13 (33) 805,297 [844] - Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (2009)
14 (34) 800,258 [958] - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
15 (35) 773,184 [800] - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
16 (36) 771,764 [224] - Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (2012)
17 (37) 771,516 [989] - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017)
18 (38) 766,633 [872] - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 1 (2010)
19 (40) 747,451 [454] - The Wind Rises (2013)
20 (42) 737,467 [937] - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (2017)
21 (43) 729,114 [773] - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
22 (45) 717,958 [434] - Rurouni Kenshin: The Legend Ends (2014)
23 (46) 716,629 [381] - Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (2018)
24 (47) 715,727 [653] - Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection F (2015)
25 (48) 707,339 [447] - Bayside Shakedown 3: Set the Guys Loose! (2010)
700,000+

*Modern = Post-Previews/Early Showings Era.

And to see all 18 films that have done it, check out the first post on this page so I'm not cluttering this new page/post with too much.

Thanks Corpse and I am very excited to track AIW release in late April in Japan since it is my most anticipated and to see how it does there.