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 Japan Box-Office: On Hiatus 
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekday Estimates (07/03-07)
Is Shinobi's Country actually like what I'm imagining .... the old 90s ninja game, Shinobi?

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Thu Jul 06, 2017 10:05 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekday Estimates (07/03-07)
No.

It's a fictional period drama, based on a novel, that takes place during the Sengoku Period (1500s), about a ninja who starts a war between the ninja of the Iga province and the army of Nobunaga Oda.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Fri Jul 07, 2017 12:57 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekday Estimates (07/03-07)
Ah, thanks.

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Fri Jul 07, 2017 7:27 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekday Estimates (07/03-07)
Weekday Estimates (07/03-07)

Monday-Thursday:
Spoiler: show
Monday (07/03)
¥165,000,000 ($1.5 million), 0, ¥1,215,000,000 ($10.8 million), Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (Disney) Day 3
¥60,000,000 ($530,000), 0, ¥545,000,000 ($4.8 million), Shinobi's Country (Toho) Day 3
¥23,000,000 ($205,000), -38%, ¥1,853,000,000 ($16.5 million), Confessions of a Murderer (Warner Bros.) Day 24
¥19,000,000 ($170,000), 0, ¥185,000,000 ($1.7 million), I Have Difficulty Being Loved Too Much (Shochiku) Day 3
¥17,000,000 ($150,000), -45%, ¥1,854,000,000 ($16.5 million), Hirugao: Love Affairs in the Afternoon (Toho) Day 24
¥12,000,000 ($105,000), -64%, ¥12,093,000,000 ($107.3 million), Beauty and the Beast (Disney) Day 74
¥8,000,000 ($70,000), -63%, ¥286,000,000 ($2.6 million), Hacksaw Ridge (Kino Films) Day 10
¥7,000,000 ($60,000), 0, ¥94,000,000 ($840,000), Anpanman: Buruburu's Big Treasure Hunt Adventure! (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) Day 3
¥7,000,000 ($60,000), 0, ¥77,000,000 ($680,000), Free! Timeless Medley Yakusoku (Promise) (Shochiku) Day 3
¥6,000,000 ($55,000), -55%, ¥445,000,000 ($4.0 million), Innocent Curse (Shochiku) Day 17


Tuesday (07/04)
¥135,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥1,350,000,000 ($12.0 million), Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (Disney) Day 4
¥45,000,000 ($400,000), 0, ¥590,000,000 ($5.2 million), Shinobi's Country (Toho) Day 4
¥18,000,000 ($160,000), -35%, ¥1,871,000,000 ($16.7 million), Confessions of a Murderer (Warner Bros.) Day 25
¥16,000,000 ($140,000), 0, ¥200,000,000 ($1.8 million), I Have Difficulty Being Loved Too Much (Shochiku) Day 4
¥14,000,000 ($125,000), -46%, ¥1,868,000,000 ($16.6 million), Hirugao: Love Affairs in the Afternoon (Toho) Day 25
¥9,000,000 ($80,000), -58%, ¥12,102,000,000 ($107.4 million), Beauty and the Beast (Disney) Day 75
¥7,000,000 ($60,000), -63%, ¥293,000,000 ($2.7 million), Hacksaw Ridge (Kino Films) Day 11
¥5,000,000 ($45,000), 0, ¥100,000,000 ($890,000), Anpanman: Buruburu's Big Treasure Hunt Adventure! (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) Day 4
¥5,000,000 ($45,000), 0, ¥82,000,000 ($730,000), Free! Timeless Medley Yakusoku (Promise) (Shochiku) Day 4
¥5,000,000 ($45,000), -39%, ¥450,000,000 ($4.1 million), Innocent Curse (Shochiku) Day 18


Wednesday (07/05)
¥170,000,000 ($1.5 million), 0, ¥1,520,000,000 ($13.5 million), Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (Disney) Day 5
¥70,000,000 ($620,000), 0, ¥660,000,000 ($5.8 million), Shinobi's Country (Toho) Day 5
¥31,000,000 ($275,000), -43%, ¥1,899,000,000 ($16.9 million), Hirugao: Love Affairs in the Afternoon (Toho) Day 26
¥26,000,000 ($230,000), -42%, ¥1,897,000,000 ($16.9 million), Confessions of a Murderer (Warner Bros.) Day 26
¥23,000,000 ($205,000), 0, ¥225,000,000 ($2.0 million), I Have Difficulty Being Loved Too Much (Shochiku) Day 5
¥16,000,000 ($140,000), -56%, ¥12,118,000,000 ($107.5 million), Beauty and the Beast (Disney) Day 76
¥8,000,000 ($70,000), 0, ¥108,000,000 ($960,000), Anpanman: Buruburu's Big Treasure Hunt Adventure! (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) Day 5
¥8,000,000 ($70,000), 0, ¥90,000,000 ($800,000), Free! Timeless Medley Yakusoku (Promise) (Shochiku) Day 5
¥8,000,000 ($70,000), -57%, ¥301,000,000 ($2.8 million), Hacksaw Ridge (Kino Films) Day 12
¥6,000,000 ($55,000), -41%, ¥456,000,000 ($4.2 million), Innocent Curse (Shochiku) Day 19


Thursday (07/06)
¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥1,640,000,000 ($14.6 million), Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (Disney) Day 6
¥40,000,000 ($355,000), 0, ¥700,000,000 ($6.2 million), Shinobi's Country (Toho) Day 6
¥17,000,000 ($150,000), -41%, ¥1,914,000,000 ($17.1 million), Confessions of a Murderer (Warner Bros.) Day 27
¥14,000,000 ($125,000), -48%, ¥1,913,000,000 ($17.1 million), Hirugao: Love Affairs in the Afternoon (Toho) Day 27
¥14,000,000 ($125,000), 0, ¥240,000,000 ($2.1 million), I Have Difficulty Being Loved Too Much (Shochiku) Day 6
¥9,000,000 ($80,000), -60%, ¥12,127,000,000 ($107.6 million), Beauty and the Beast (Disney) Day 77
¥7,000,000 ($60,000), -56%, ¥308,000,000 ($2.8 million), Hacksaw Ridge (Kino Films) Day 13
¥6,000,000 ($55,000), 0, ¥114,000,000 ($1.0 million), Anpanman: Buruburu's Big Treasure Hunt Adventure! (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) Day 6
¥5,000,000 ($45,000), 0, ¥95,000,000 ($850,000), Free! Timeless Medley Yakusoku (Promise) (Shochiku) Day 6
¥5,000,000 ($45,000), -39%, ¥461,000,000 ($4.3 million), Innocent Curse (Shochiku) Day 20


Friday (07/07)
¥145,000,000 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥1,785,000,000 ($15.9 million), Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (Disney) Day 6
¥50,000,000 ($440,000), 0, ¥750,000,000 ($6.6 million), Shinobi's Country (Toho) Day 7
¥30,000,000 ($265,000), 0, ¥30,000,000 ($265,000), John Wick: Chapter 2 (Pony Canyon) Day 1
¥21,000,000 ($185,000), -38%, ¥1,935,000,000 ($17.3 million), Confessions of a Murderer (Warner Bros.) Day 28
¥17,000,000 ($150,000), 0, ¥257,000,000 ($2.3 million), I Have Difficulty Being Loved Too Much (Shochiku) Day 7
¥15,000,000 ($130,000), -47%, ¥1,928,000,000 ($17.2 million), Hirugao: Love Affairs in the Afternoon (Toho) Day 28
¥13,000,000 ($115,000), -57%, ¥12,140,000,000 ($107.7 million), Beauty and the Beast (Disney) Day 78
¥8,000,000 ($70,000), -57%, ¥316,000,000 ($2.9 million), Hacksaw Ridge (Kino Films) Day 14
¥6,000,000 ($50,000), -40%, ¥467,000,000 ($4.3 million), Innocent Curse (Shochiku) Day 21
¥5,000,000 ($45,000), 0, ¥119,000,000 ($1.1 million), Anpanman: Buruburu's Big Treasure Hunt Adventure! (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) Day 7


% changes versus same day last week.
Weekdays in order from strongest to weakest (typically): Wednesday > Monday > Friday > Tuesday > Thursday.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Fri Jul 07, 2017 12:15 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekday Estimates (07/03-07)


Mary and the Witch's Flower opens today, and Toho is giving it a very wide release; the widest domestic release of 2017 so far. The film, directed by Hiromasa Yonebayashi (Arrietty, When Marnie Was There), is the first from Studio Ponoc which was founded by former Studio Ghibli producer Yoshiaki Nishimura, and consists of other former Studio Ghibli staff and animators.

Studio Ghibli exited film production in 2014.

I'll have some pre-sale information late this evening followed by the Weekend Forecast.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Fri Jul 07, 2017 12:20 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekday Estimates (07/03-07)
Corpse wrote:
Studio Ghibli exited film production in 2014.

And return in 2016


Fri Jul 07, 2017 12:49 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekday Estimates (07/03-07)
is it normal for Pirates to be at such a low number after its first week? Starting to think it is disappointing


Fri Jul 07, 2017 2:33 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND Estimates (07/01-02) - Pirates 5
somekindofthing wrote:
Iseedasky wrote:
Hi corpse, any data on how much Spirited Away and Frozen made on home video sales in Japan?
does the revenue generated by home video sales added to the worldwide gross or there's another list for it? I bet YN will top this one as well :P


Home video sales don't get added into box office gross. Two different things reported by different companies in different ways.

But it definitely won't be anywhere near the top as far as home video sales go. Spirited Away, last I tried to work it out, ended up somewhere around 4.1 million units sold across all releases. Frozen has sold a bit under 2.5 million.

Kimi no Na wa can't be estimated easily right now. Amazon Ranking Stalker (http://rankstker.net/index_news.cgi) is currently the go-to source for estimating anime disc sales but it's mostly intended for late night TV series that sell a few hundred or thousand (or at best tens of thousands) of units per volume, not mainstream mega-hits that consistently rank in the top 10. (Should clarify that while it's based on Amazon ranking, its calibrated to predict overall first week sales as reported by Oricon, not just sales at Amazon.)

However, it is within the realm of possibility that KnNw tops out below 400k, or about 1/10th of Spirited Away. Stalker's estimate for first week sales at the moment is 291,474. There's reasons to believe that's low, and KnNw should have a strong long tail. Since Stalker isn't intended for releases of this size, it could be wildly off! But we should probably be very surprised if it gets to a million, let alone remotely approaching Spirited Away.

(NOTE: The above numbers are all based on Oricon reports, and while they're all we've got to go by unless publishers publicly report shipments, it's well known that their estimates do not reflect the full sales of any given DVD/BD release. Any given Oricon DVD/BD number could be 1/2 of the actual number shipped by the publisher, though that can vary a lot. And the shipped number matters most because that's what the publisher gets paid for.)


Thanks for the reply bruh, let's see :)


Fri Jul 07, 2017 2:53 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekday Estimates (07/03-07)
1924 wrote:
is it normal for Pirates to be at such a low number after its first week? Starting to think it is disappointing


Most films make over 50% of their gross after their third/fourth week of release. It's performing just fine. :thumbsup:

Weekend Forecast will be posted soon.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Fri Jul 07, 2017 9:37 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (07/08-09)
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Weekend Forecast (07/08-09)
01 (01) ¥671,000,000 ($5.9 million), -36%, ¥2,450,000,000 ($21.8 million), Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (Disney) WK2
02 (---) ¥450,000,000 ($4.0 million), 0, ¥450,000,000 ($4.0 million), Mary and the Witch's Flower (Toho) NEW
03 (02) ¥281,000,000 ($2.5 million), -42%, ¥1,025,000,000 ($9.1 million), Shinobi's Country (Toho) WK2
04 (03) ¥107,000,000 ($940,000, -35%, ¥375,000,000 ($3.3 million), I Have Difficulty Being Loved Too Much (Shochiku) WK2
05 (---) ¥105,000,000 ($920,000), 0, ¥135,000,000 ($1.1 million), John Wick: Chapter 2 (Pony Canyon) NEW
06 (04) ¥101,000,000 ($890,000), -39%, ¥2,025,000,000 ($18.1 million), Confessions of a Murderer (Warner Bros.) WK5
07 (07) ¥59,000,000 ($520,000), -33%, ¥175,000,000 ($1.5 million), Anpanman: Buruburu's Big Treasure Hunt Adventure! (Tokyo Theaters) WK2
08 (06) ¥58,000,000 ($510,000), -43%, ¥2,000,000,000 ($17.7 million), Hirugao: Love Affairs in the Afternoon (Toho) WK5
09 (05) ¥53,000,000 ($465,000), -50%, ¥12,200,000,000 ($108.2 million), Beauty and the Beast (Disney) WK12
10 (08) ¥49,000,000 ($430,000), -30%, ¥150,000,000 ($1.3 million), Free! Timeless Medley Yakusoku (Promise) (Shochiku) WK2


First, note that drops this weekend are difficult to predict since they're coming off a weekend that had a nationwide discount ticket day (last Saturday). So, admissions for Saturday, and the weekend frame itself, will be down considerably but the drops in revenue will better than they suggest. Overall, drops tend to be higher than average over post-discount weekends.

>Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales looks like it's going to defend its #1 position atop the box office in its second weekend, though it does face a serious contender from the hands of many former Studio Ghibli members.

>Mary and the Witch's Flower may have to settle for a second place debut based on pre-sales and morning/afternoon ticket sales, but if it comes in above ¥400 million, I'd consider it a win regardless. A debut above ¥400 million would be higher Hiromasa Yonebayashi''s previous film When Marnie Was There; it'd also come in higher than other notable non-Miyazaki Ghibli films as well, such as From Kokuriko Hill and The Tale of Princess Kaguya.

>Beauty and the Beast will be enjoying a twelfth weekend in the Top 10, although this will also be its last weekend there and possibly in wide release as well. Next weekend is a holiday weekend and also marks the first weekend of Summer Vacation, and with it comes seven or eight wide openers and 25+ more limited releases.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Last edited by Corpse on Fri Jul 07, 2017 10:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Fri Jul 07, 2017 10:11 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (07/08-09)
I'll provide a mid-day update in 3-4 hours, which will include an admission comparison for Mary and the Witch's Flower against Studio Ghibli's most recent films.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Fri Jul 07, 2017 10:20 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (07/08-09)
A few things about the state of this thread over the next month or so (and later in the Fall):

July 10th-13th: I'll be out of state visiting relatives.
August 4th-13th: I'll be on vacation (hallelujer).
August 24th-28th: I'll be in California for the first Crunchyroll Expo.

I won't be dead... I just won't be posting updates in this thread during these times.

And finally, I'll be visiting this thread and updating it quite sparingly in November and the first week of December (maybe just once a week). I'm taking my first JLPT on December 3rd in Washington, DC, and will be using the weeks/months leading up to it with minimal distractions since only 30-40% of examinees pass.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sat Jul 08, 2017 12:47 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (07/08-09)
At the mid-day point, Mary and the Witch's Flower is tracking ~41% ahead of 2014's When Marnie Was There.

If it remains up by 40% or so for the remainder of the day, and tomorrow, it could reach 400,000 admissions for the weekend, enough to exceed ¥500 million ($4.5 million). A debut near or over that mark during this time of year would be enough for a gross over ¥4 billion ($35 million), and ¥5 billion ($45 million) wouldn't be unrealistic either.

It's still unlikely to dethrone Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales from the #1 spot this weekend, but it's certainly a debut to be satisfied with.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sat Jul 08, 2017 1:51 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (07/08-09)
How's the WOM for Mary? TBH, anything under $5 M is a bit disappointing :/


Sat Jul 08, 2017 3:21 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (07/08-09)
It's incredibly early and nearly impossible to say based on a single day or weekend, but it appears positive - just not very positive. It's averaging 3.5/5 ratings from audiences on various online movie sites, and responses on twitter are mostly fine.

Its Saturday admissions ended up being up 35% versus 2014's When Marnie Was There. It slowed down a little in the evening/night, indicating it's skewing younger (not a bad thing).

Depending on how Sunday behaves, its weekend will likely fall between 350,000-400,000 admissions for a gross of ¥450-500 million ($4-4.5 million). I don't believe an opening in this range is anything to be disappointed about. It's not a Studio Ghibli film, yet it's still going to debut higher than all but two non-Miyazaki Ghibli films (Arrietty and Tales from Earthsea).

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales played very well in the evening/night as it's been doing since opening, assuring itself a second weekend at #1.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sat Jul 08, 2017 12:28 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (07/08-09)
Weekend Estimates will be up in an hour or so.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sun Jul 09, 2017 6:18 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (07/08-09)
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Weekend Estimates (07/08-09)
01 (01) ¥712,000,000 ($6.3 million), -32%, ¥2,550,000,000 ($22.6 million), Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (Disney) WK2
02 (---) ¥425,000,000 ($3.7 million), 0, ¥425,000,000 ($3.7 million), Mary and the Witch's Flower (Toho) NEW
03 (02) ¥247,000,000 ($2.2 million), -49%, ¥1,000,000,000 ($8.9 million), Shinobi's Country (Toho) WK2
04 (03) ¥118,000,000 ($$1.0 million)), -28%, ¥400,000,000 ($3.5 million), I Have Difficulty Being Loved Too Much (Shochiku) WK2
05 (04) ¥102,000,000 ($895,000), -38%, ¥2,025,000,000 ($18.1 million), Confessions of a Murderer (Warner Bros.) WK5
06 (---) ¥75,000,000 ($660,000), 0, ¥105,000,000 ($920,000), John Wick: Chapter 2 (Pony Canyon) NEW
07 (07) ¥57,000,000 ($500,000), -35%, ¥175,000,000 ($1.5 million), Anpanman: Buruburu's Big Treasure Hunt Adventure! (Tokyo Theaters) WK2
08 (05) ¥55,000,000 ($480,000), -48%, ¥12,200,000,000 ($108.2 million), Beauty and the Beast (Disney) WK12
09 (06) ¥54,000,000 ($475,000), -46%, ¥2,000,000,000 ($17.7 million), Hirugao: Love Affairs in the Afternoon (Toho) WK5
10 (08) ¥44,000,000 ($385,000), -37%, ¥150,000,000 ($1.3 million), Free! Timeless Medley Yakusoku (Promise) (Shochiku) WK2


>Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales defended its #1 position atop the box office in its second weekend, and held particularly well coming off a debut weekend that was assisted by a discount day. The fifth Pirates installment will likely continue to play well throughout the month (might even repeat atop the box office for a third weekend), and should still be aiming for a total around ¥7 billion ($60 million+) milestone.

>Mary and the Witch's Flower had to settle for a second place debut and didn't come as close to ¥500 million as Saturday suggested (thanks to a minimal Sunday increase). The opening may be slightly underwhelming, but it's important to remember that this isn't a Studio Ghibi film (even though Studio Ponoc is comprised of former Ghibli employees) and it's still higher than Hiromasa Yonebayashi''s previous film When Marnie Was There by about 12% based on estimates. It depends on how the audience reception is after next week (start of Summer Vacation), though legs in general are very strong in July/August, so a total of ¥4 billion ($35 million) is doable and certainly nothing to scoff at.

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sun Jul 09, 2017 7:40 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (07/08-09)
Corpse wrote:
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Weekend Estimates (07/08-09)
01 (01) ¥712,000,000 ($6.3 million), -32%, ¥2,550,000,000 ($22.6 million), Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (Disney) WK2
02 (---) ¥425,000,000 ($3.7 million), 0, ¥425,000,000 ($3.7 million), Mary and the Witch's Flower (Toho) NEW
03 (02) ¥247,000,000 ($2.2 million), -49%, ¥1,000,000,000 ($8.9 million), Shinobi's Country (Toho) WK2
04 (03) ¥118,000,000 ($$1.0 million)), -28%, ¥400,000,000 ($3.5 million), I Have Difficulty Being Loved Too Much (Shochiku) WK2
05 (04) ¥102,000,000 ($895,000), -38%, ¥2,025,000,000 ($18.1 million), Confessions of a Murderer (Warner Bros.) WK5
06 (---) ¥75,000,000 ($660,000), 0, ¥105,000,000 ($920,000), John Wick: Chapter 2 (Pony Canyon) NEW
07 (07) ¥57,000,000 ($500,000), -35%, ¥175,000,000 ($1.5 million), Anpanman: Buruburu's Big Treasure Hunt Adventure! (Tokyo Theaters) WK2
08 (05) ¥55,000,000 ($480,000), -48%, ¥12,200,000,000 ($108.2 million), Beauty and the Beast (Disney) WK12
09 (06) ¥54,000,000 ($475,000), -46%, ¥2,000,000,000 ($17.7 million), Hirugao: Love Affairs in the Afternoon (Toho) WK5
10 (08) ¥44,000,000 ($385,000), -37%, ¥150,000,000 ($1.3 million), Free! Timeless Medley Yakusoku (Promise) (Shochiku) WK2


>Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales defended its #1 position atop the box office in its second weekend, and held particularly well coming off a debut weekend that was assisted by a discount day. The fifth Pirates installment will likely continue to play well throughout the month (might even repeat atop the box office for a third weekend), and should still be aiming for a total around ¥7 billion ($60 million+) milestone.

>Mary and the Witch's Flower had to settle for a second place debut and didn't come as close to ¥500 million as Saturday suggested (thanks to a minimal Sunday increase). The opening may be slightly underwhelming, but it's important to remember that this isn't a Studio Ghibi film (even though Studio Ponoc is comprised of former Ghibli employees) and it's still higher than Hiromasa Yonebayashi''s previous film When Marnie Was There by about 12% based on estimates. It depends on how the audience reception is after next week (start of Summer Vacation), though legs in general are very strong in July/August, so a total of ¥4 billion ($35 million) is doable and certainly nothing to scoff at.



are there holidays coming up that will boost grosses coming up?


Sun Jul 09, 2017 7:52 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (07/08-09)
Yep, plenty. Next weekend is a holiday weekend and the start of Summer Vacation. And in mid-August there's Obon Festival (the strongest week of the year).

Ocean Day - July 17th
Summer Vacation - July 17th-August 31st
Obon Festival - August 11th-20th

The middle of July through the end of August are the strongest 6 weeks for the box office, and why 25+ wide releases are scheduled in a six week period every year. Half of the yearly Top 10 are regularly July or August releases.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sun Jul 09, 2017 8:07 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (07/08-09)
Corpse this hold for POTC5 is better than the last movie right?


Mon Jul 10, 2017 6:55 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (07/08-09)
Corpse wrote:
It's incredibly early and nearly impossible to say based on a single day or weekend, but it appears positive - just not very positive. It's averaging 3.5/5 ratings from audiences on various online movie sites, and responses on twitter are mostly fine.

Its Saturday admissions ended up being up 35% versus 2014's When Marnie Was There. It slowed down a little in the evening/night, indicating it's skewing younger (not a bad thing).

Depending on how Sunday behaves, its weekend will likely fall between 350,000-400,000 admissions for a gross of ¥450-500 million ($4-4.5 million). I don't believe an opening in this range is anything to be disappointed about. It's not a Studio Ghibli film, yet it's still going to debut higher than all but two non-Miyazaki Ghibli films (Arrietty and Tales from Earthsea).

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales played very well in the evening/night as it's been doing since opening, assuring itself a second weekend at #1.



I don't think WOM will play any role in its long run, it's pretty average as you said and I had higher expectation since I liked his previous works :(


Mon Jul 10, 2017 9:29 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (07/08-09)
Jack Sparrow wrote:
Corpse this hold for POTC5 is better than the last movie right?


No, but that doesn't mean Dead Men Tell No Tales didn't have a good hold (it did). On Stranger Tides had an incredible second weekend hold (single digit drop), but May and July are very different times of the year - one is one of the weakest months of the year, while the other is one of the strongest.

Weekend Actuals will be posted soon.

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Wed Jul 12, 2017 7:34 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals (07/08-09)
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(C)2017 Disney. All Rights Reserved.

Weekend Actuals (07/08-09)
01 (01) ¥740,432,700 ($6.5 million), -29%, ¥2,617,130,400 ($23.2 million), Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (Disney) WK2
02 (---) ¥428,232,900 ($3.8 million), 0, ¥428,232,900 ($3.7 million), Mary and the Witch's Flower (Toho) NEW
03 (02) ¥237,337,100 ($2.1 million), -51%, ¥1,053,600,100 ($9.3 million), Shinobi's Country (Toho) WK2
04 (03) ¥110,287,400 ($972,000)), -30%, ¥445,974,500 ($3.9 million), I Have Difficulty Being Loved Too Much (Shochiku) WK2
05 (04) ¥108,323,000 ($954,000), -36%, ¥2,077,345,600 ($18.5 million), Confessions of a Murderer (Warner Bros.) WK5
06 (---) ¥74,349,000 ($655,000), 0, ¥104,145,000 ($918,000), John Wick: Chapter 2 (Pony Canyon) NEW
07 (07) ¥60,900,800 ($536,000), -33%, ¥181,974,000 ($1.6 million), Anpanman: Buruburu's Big Treasure Hunt Adventure! (Tokyo Theaters) WK2
08 (06) ¥59,536,500 ($524,000), -43%, ¥2,038,794,000 ($18.1 million), Hirugao: Love Affairs in the Afternoon (Toho) WK5
09 (05) ¥56,074,200 ($494,000), -47%, ¥12,207,741,400 ($108.3 million), Beauty and the Beast (Disney) WK12
10 (08) ¥35,725,900 ($315,000), -49%, ¥136,270,100 ($1.2 million), Free! Timeless Medley Yakusoku (Promise) (Shochiku) WK2


>Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales defended its #1 position atop the box office in its second weekend, and held particularly well coming off a debut weekend that was assisted by a discount day; it sold 491,737 admissions over its sophomore frame. The fifth Pirates installment will likely continue to play well throughout the month (might even repeat atop the box office for a third weekend), and should still be aiming for a total around ¥7 billion ($60 million+) milestone.

>Mary and the Witch's Flower had to settle for a second place, selling 324,294 admissions across 457 screens over the weekend. The film's debut didn't come as close to ¥500 million as early signs indicated, but it's still a fine start if a tad underwhelming. It's very important to remember that this isn't a Studio Ghibi film (even though Studio Ponoc is comprised of former Ghibli employees), yet its opening came in 13% higher than Hiromasa Yonebayashi''s previous film When Marnie Was There. It depends on how the audience reception is after next week (start of Summer Vacation), though legs in general are very strong in July/August, so a total of ¥3.5-4.0 billion ($30-35 million) is doable and certainly nothing to scoff at.

>Confessions of a Murderer became Warner Bros.' highest-grossing film of 2017 so far, and has sold over 1.5 million admissions after five weeks in release.

>John Wick: Chapter 2 couldn't make the Top 5, but it was also distributed by an independent studio and was playing on just 155 screens. So, taking that into account, I'd say its opening is fairly good. The film sold 76,706 admissions after three days in release.

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Wed Jul 12, 2017 8:02 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Top Opening Weekends: 2017
2017 - Top Opening Weekends
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Screen Count] - Film (Distributor)

¥1.287 billion ($11.9 million) / 987,568 [368] - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Toho)
¥1.065 billion ($9.7 million) / 729,114 [773] - Beauty and the Beast (Disney)
¥1.048 billion ($9.3 million) / 771,516 [989] - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (Disney)

¥1 billion ↨
¥691.8 million ($6.1 million) / 592,036 [371] - Doraemon: Great Adventure in the Antarctic (Toho)
¥653.4 million ($5.7 million) / 413,604 [635] - Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Disney)
¥633.4 million ($5.6 million) / 420,058 [710] - The Fate of the Furious (Toho-Towa)
¥619.4 million ($5.4 million) / 400,957 [664] - Resident Evil: The Final Chapter (Sony)
¥608.0 million ($5.3 million) / 545,211 [415] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great Adventure of the Flying Whale and the Double Worlds (Toho)
¥589.5 million ($5.1 million) / 466,480 [568] - Moana (Disney)
¥546.3 million ($4.9 million) / 421,921 [588] - Sing (Toho-Towa)

¥500 million ↨
¥484.5 million ($4.3 million) / 404,452 [332] - Shinobi's Country (Toho)
¥439.6 million ($3.9 million) / 390,416 [315] - Monster Strike: The Movie (Warner Bros.)
¥428.2 million ($3.8 million) / 324,294 [457] - Mary and the Witch's Flower (Toho)
¥425.7 million ($3.8 million) / 308,376 [151] - Sword Art Online: Ordinal Scale (Aniplex)
¥415.8 million ($3.7 million) / 289,979 [308] - La La Land (Gaga)
¥401.7 million ($3.5 million) / 316,539 [347] - Partners: The Movie IV (Toei)
¥396.4 million ($3.5 million) / 256,885 [676] - Kong: Skull Island (Warner Bros.)
¥394.1 million ($3.4 million) / 237,722 [785] - Doctor Strange (Disney)
¥329.8 million ($3.0 million) / 278,790 [349] - Crayon Shin-chan: Invasion!! Shiriri (Toho)
¥321.3 million ($2.9 million) / 233,498 [329] - Confessions of a Murderer (Warner Bros.)

¥300 million ↨
¥294.4 million ($2.7 million) / 209,871 [313] - Hirugao: Love Affairs in the Afternoon (Toho)
¥286.5 million ($2.5 million) / 223,976 [426] - A Man Called Pirate (Toho)
¥276.0 million ($2.4 million) / 228,046 [316] - Kamen Rider Hensei Generations (Toei)
¥273.1 million ($2.5 million) / 171,203 [611] - Ghost in the Shell (Toho-Towa)
¥249.4 million ($2.2 million) / 163,143 [705] - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (Disney)
¥232.8 million ($2.0 million) / 182,044 [156] - Kiseki: Sobito of That Day (Toei)
¥231.7 million ($2.0 million) / 157,717 [745] - Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children (Fox)
¥226.9 million ($2.0 million) / 180,246 [296] - Memory (Toho)
¥223.0 million ($1.9 million) / 157,896 [309] - The Mole Song 2: Hong Kong Crazy Uproar Song (Toho)
¥214.2 million ($1.9 million) / 166,089 [291] - Teiichi: Battle of Supreme High (Toho)
¥205.1 million ($1.8 million) / 167,198 [282] - Honnouji Hotel (Toho)

¥200 million ↨
¥194.1 million ($1.7 million) / 159,935 [300] - Let's Go, Jets! (Toho)
¥190.0 million ($1.7 million) / 124,397 [91] - Kuroko's Basketball The Movie: Last Game (Shochiku)
¥189.6 million ($1.7 million) / 149,376 [306] - Today, I Will Date Tomorrow's You (Toei)
¥189.0 million ($1.7 million) / 145,348 [331] - Blade of the Immortal (Warner Bros.)
¥179.1 million ($1.6 million) / 145,676 [273] - Daytime Shooting Star (Toho)
¥177.1 million ($1.6 million) / 144,347 [309] - Kamen Rider X Super Sentai: Ultra Superhero War (Toei)
¥173.0 million ($1.6 million) / 141,017 [303] - Policeman and Me (Shochiku)
¥165.3 million ($1.5 million) / 129,886 [765] - Survival Family (Toho)
¥165.0 million ($1.5 million) / 143,000 [251] - I Have Difficulty Being Loved Too Much (Shochiku)
¥163.3 million ($1.4 million) / 113,600 [728] - Logan (Fox)
¥162.9 million ($1.4 million) / 106,796 [59] - The Irregular at High School: The Girl Who Summons Stars (Aniplex)
¥161.2 million ($1.4 million) / 115,891 [333] - Shinjuku Swan 2 (Sony)
¥158.0 million ($1.4 million) / 134,976 [214] - Precure the Movie: Dream Stars! (Toei)
¥157.7 million ($1.4 million) / 101,096 [685] - Assassin's Creed (Fox)
¥153.1 million ($1.3 million) / 123,959 [305] - One Week Friends (Shochiku)
¥149.5 million ($1.3 million) / 120,436 [251] - Innocent Curse (Shochiku)
¥133.3 million ($1.3 million) / 104,648 [342] - Silence (Kadokawa)
¥142.0 million ($1.3 million) / 120,249 [302] - Peach Girl (Shochiku)
¥140.4 million ($1.3 million) / 101,646 [285] - To Each His Own (Toho)
¥132.2 million ($1.2 million) / 114,515 [401] - xXx: The Return of Xander Cage (Toho-Towa)
¥132.1 million ($1.2 million) / 106,504 [295] - March Comes in Like a Lion (Toho)
¥132.0 million ($1.2 million) / 116,000 [326] - What a Wonderful Family! 2 (Shochiku)
¥127.9 million ($1.2 million) / 95,991 [296] - March Comes in Like a Lion - Part 2 (Toho)
¥126.7 million ($1.1 million) / 91,895 [177] - Your Eyes (Nikkatsu)
¥126.1 million ($1.1 million) / 107,095 [354] - Flowers and Sword (Toei)
¥124.3 million ($1.1 million) / 92,488 [499] - Passengers (Sony)
¥113.1 million ($1.0 million) / 93,487 [273] - The Accountant (Warner Bros.)
¥108.9 million ($0.9 million) / 76,217 [232] - Ancien and the Magic Tablet (Warner Bros.)
¥107.0 million ($0.9 million) / 84,002 [151] - Hamon: Yakuza Boogie (Shochiku)
¥106.5 million ($1.0 million) / 79,891 [199] - Arrival (Sony)
¥105.7 million ($0.9 million) / 83,135 [252] - Hacksaw Ridge (Kino Films)
¥104.6 million ($0.9 million) / 85,500 [315] - A Loving Husband (Toho)
¥101.4 million ($0.9 million) / 71,304 [120] - The Night is Short, Walk on Girl (Toho Video Division)

¥100 million ↑

Legend:
¥1 billion+ (Exemplary) / ¥500 million+ (Great) / ¥300 million+ (Good) / ¥200 million+ (Acceptable) / ¥100 million+ (Mediocre)

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Wed Jul 12, 2017 8:02 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Top Grossing Films: 2017
2017 - Top Grossing Films
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Days in Release] - Film (Distributor)

¥12.21 billion ($108.3 million) / 8.81 million [80] - Beauty and the Beast (Disney)
¥10 billion ↨
¥7.30 billion ($64.4 million) / 5.21 million [E] - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Warner Bros.)
¥6.82 billion ($61.0 million) / 5.32 million [86] - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Toho)
¥5.17 billion ($46.1 million) / 4.25 million [E] - Moana (Disney)
¥5.07 billion ($45.1 million) / 4.14 million [E] - Sing (Toho-Towa)

¥5 billion ↨
¥4.57 billion ($39.5 million) / 3.04 million [E] - Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Disney)
¥4.36 billion ($39.1 million) / 3.84 million [E] - Doraemon: Great Adventure in the Antarctic (Toho)
¥4.25 billion ($37.9 million) / 2.87 million [E] - Resident Evil: The Final Chapter (Sony)
¥4.21 billion ($37.2 million) / 3.08 million [E] - La La Land (Gaga)
¥4.02 billion ($36.0 million) / 2.78 million [E] - The Fate of the Furious (Toho-Towa)
¥3.22 billion ($27.9 million) / 2.90 million [F] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great Adventure of the Flying Whale (Toho)

¥3 billion ↨
¥2.62 billion ($23.2 million) / 1.76 million [09] - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (Disney)
¥2.50 billion ($21.9 million) / 1.75 million [F] - Sword Art Online: Ordinal Scale (Aniplex)
¥2.31 billion ($19.9 million) / 1.87 million [E] - A Man Called Pirate (Toho)
¥2.08 billion ($18.5 million) / 1.56 million [30] - Confessions of a Murderer (Warner Bros.)
¥2.04 billion ($18.1 million) / 1.55 million [30] - Hirugao: Love Affairs in the Afternoon (Toho)
¥2.00 billion ($17.7 million) / 1.34 million [E] - Kong: Skull Island (Warner Bros.)

¥2 billion ↨
¥1.90 billion ($16.9 million) / 1.55 million [E] - Partners: The Movie IV (Toei)
¥1.89 billion ($16.7 million) / 1.49 million [E] - Teiichi: Battle of Supreme High (Toho)
¥1.87 billion ($16.4 million) / 1.22 million [E] - Doctor Strange (Disney)
¥1.81 billion ($15.6 million) / 1.46 million [E] - Tomorrow, I Will Date With Yesterday's You (Toho)
¥1.59 billion ($14.0 million) / 1.35 million [E] - Crayon Shin-chan: Invasion!! Shiriri (Toho)
¥1.41 billion ($12.5 million) / 1.07 million [E] - The Mole Song 2: Hong Kong Crazy Uproar (Toho)
¥1.37 billion ($12.0 million) / 1.09 million [E] - Kiseki: Sobito of That Day (Toei)
¥1.29 billion ($11.3 million) / 1.12 million [E] - Daytime Shooting Star (Toho)
¥1.23 billion ($10.8 million) / 1.06 million [E] - Let's Go, Jets! (Toho)
¥1.19 billion ($10.4 million) / 0.85 million [E] - Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children (Fox)
¥1.10 billion ($9.7 million) / 0.90 million [E] - Memory (Toho)
¥1.09 billion ($9.7 million) / 0.74 million [E] - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (Disney)
¥1.05 billion ($9.3 million) / 0.86 million [09] - Shinobi's Country (Toho)
¥1.02 billion ($9.0 million) / 0.72 million [E] - Ghost in the Shell (Toho-Towa)
¥1.01 billion ($9.0 million) / 0.70 million [E] - Kuroko's Basketball The Movie: Last Game (Shochiku)
¥1.00 billion ($8.8 million) / 0.87 million [E] - Honnouji Hotel (Toho)

¥1 billion ↑

Legend:
¥10 billion+ (Uber-Blockbuster) / ¥5 billion+ (Blockbuster) / ¥3 billion+ (Hit) / ¥2 billion+ (Respectable) / ¥1 billion+ (Commercial Success)

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Wed Jul 12, 2017 8:02 pm
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