I can't really confirm anything other than online interest which appears good, but given how the films skew very young in Japan, I doubt that's worth much weight. It's hard to track films that skew very young until shortly before release unless advance sales are actually reported, though that's only done if sales are very strong (so far, no reports).

If this year's film doesn't increase over last year's, given the 20th anniversary, the improved TV ratings for Sun & Moon over X&Y, and the novelty factor of the release this time... then the film franchise is most certainly not going to recover anytime soon.

Usual Locations (Two-Thirds of Market) - Weekend Admissions

Biggest Openers Since 2015 (¥1 Billion+ Debuts)

Saturday Results:
Tickets Sold/Available Tickets (% Capacity), [Theaters/Showings], Film Title
348,024/605,267 (57.4% capacity), [239/1,676], Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (2017)
330,349/701,865 (47.1% capacity), [247/2,864], Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017)
317,709/530,456 (59.9% capacity), [231/1,727], Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (2015)
293,246/714,702 (41.0% capacity), [236/2,789], Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
289,656/530,905 (54.5% capacity), [230/1,502], Detective Conan: Darkest Nightmare (2016)
286,726/658,842 (43.5% capacity), [231/2,256], One Piece Film Gold (2016)
262,671/667,610 (39.3% capacity), [245/2,327], Beauty and the Beast (2017)

Sunday Results:
Tickets Sold/Available Tickets (% Capacity), [Theaters/Showings], Film Title
328,862/595,145 (55.3% capacity), [240/1,648], Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (2017)
303,414/524,359 (57.9% capacity), [231/1,688], Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (2015)
282,386/512,761 (55.1% capacity), [226/1,434], Detective Conan: Darkest Nightmare (2016)
275,491/670,208 (41.1% capacity), [236/2,636], Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
263,634/633,723 (41.6% capacity), [245/2,241], Beauty and the Beast (2017)
219,122/687,402 (31.9% capacity), [247/2,805], Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017)
207,464/639,737 (32.4% capacity), [231/2,205], One Piece Film Gold (2016)

Weekend Results:
Tickets Sold/Available Tickets (% Capacity), [Theaters/Showings], Film Title
676,886/1,200,412 (56.4% capacity), [240/3,324], Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (2017)
621,123/1,051,181 (59.1% capacity), [231/3,415], Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (2015)
572,042/1,043,666 (54.8% capacity), [230/2,936], Detective Conan: Darkest Nightmare (2016)
569,497/1,392,147 (40.9% capacity), [236/5,431], Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
549,579/1,389,766 (39.6% capacity), [247/5,670], Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017)
526,470/1,302,175 (40.4% capacity), [245/4,570], Beauty and the Beast (2017)
494,190/1,298,579 (38.1% capacity), [231/4,461], One Piece Film Gold (2016)

Pirates of the Caribbean Box Office History


Openings:
¥1,944,562,960 ($16.5 million) / 1,421,738 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
¥1,471,311,021 ($12.1 million) / 1,186,413 - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
¥1,205,116,126 ($14.7 million) / 773,184 - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
¥1,075,000,000 ($9.6 million) / 775,000 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017) *Estimate*
¥545,926,902 ($4.5 million) / 410,089 - Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl (2003)

Totals:
¥10.90 billion ($102.4 million) / 8.40 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
¥10.02 billion ($82.3 million) / 7.75 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
¥8.87 billion ($114.9 million) / 5.86 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
¥6.80 billion ($60.3 million) / 5.10 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl (2003)

Note: Pirates 2 and Pirates 3 were released in the previews era (pre-2010), so their opening weekends are notably higher than those of the modern era.

Before the debut of Pirates 5, the franchise is Japan's 9th Highest-Grossing [(¥36.65 billion ($361 million)] and 10th Most-Attended (27.11 million).

Disney reports a $9.2m opening weekend for POTC5...

That suggests it'll stay above ¥1 billion (¥1.03/1.04 billion). The exchange rate has been largely consistent for weeks now, so errors there should be very minimal.

Do you have the previewless OWs ?

Unfortunately, very few major opening weekends minus previews are available from the early/mid-2000s. And in some situations, previews even included an entire weekend's worth of showings the prior week. Almost every report from back then simply says "its opening weekend along with previews accounted for X".

Previews started to become less common in 2008, then Eiren (Motion Picture Association of Japan) decided they wouldn't be included in opening weekends anymore in 2010. And since then, previews (which includes midnights) have become a thing of the past with almost no film receiving any with the exception of very, and I mean very, fan-driven films such as late-night anime films getting a few theaters on board once or twice a year (if that).

Opening weekends these days appear much less "impressive" as a result, and will likely never challenge the very top of the charts, but I don't believe that's really the case and definitely prefer it like this.

In this month we'll finally know the actual number of Your Name domestic gross right? Probably around the special screening to promote home release products.

Hopefully! It's still playing at four locations and will be losing one of them on July 7th. I'm expecting it to exit the remaining theaters either on July 15th (a million films opening then ahead of Summer Vacation/Obon Festival) or July 22nd in order to sell some final tickets during the first week of Summer Vacation (and before the home video release).

I'm also anticipating how it'll perform on home video, not just for how many units it sells, but how much revenue it generates as well given the non-standard pricing:

DVD - ¥3,800 (~$34)
Blu-Ray - ¥4,800 (~$43)
Special Edition - ¥7,800 (~$70)
Collector's Edition - ¥12,000 (~$107)

I'll be checking domestic sites more frequently this month looking for the announcements.

I've been following this thread for awhile. Keep up the good job Corpse!

Anyway, next week is the opening of Mary and the Witch's Flower. Most of the hype in the West for this movie came from the fact Hayao Miyazaki refused to see it, which is not actually very positive but in Japan I think the promotion is being really well done and the theme song, SEKAI NO OWARI's Rain, is actually performing really well which, considering Radwimps/Your Name, could be a good indicative of what's to come. I don't know if it'll unseat Pirates of the Caribbean, maybe this will be too difficult, but I am expecting a good performance.

Then there is the Gintama movie. With most shonen manga-based movies, the early buzz is usually very negative (except with Ruroni Kenshin and Assassination Classroom) but Gintama's buzz is actually quite positive so I am expecting it to have a good run too. We shall see.

Mary and the Witch's Flower should perform well, but unless its reception is exceptional, it doesn't appear to have blockbuster potential right now. I'm expecting a similar performance to Hiromasa Yonebayashi's last film When Marnie Was There in the ¥3-4 billion ($30-40 million) range which is perfectly respectable, but hoping for a breakout.

Gintama has been receiving a lot of positive attention, and online signs have been strong for weeks/months. It's opening on the year's traditionally strongest weekend of the year, Umi no Hi (Ocean Day), in two weeks and I'm anticipating strong box office figures. I believe it has ¥5 billion ($50 million) potential. Warner Bros. has an impressive track record with live-action manga adaptations (e.g. Rurouni Kenshin trilogy and Death Note franchise).

Also, thanks! I hope you continue to post here. Quick question: How/Where did you find this thread? I see my thread (or posts) referenced often on ANN (Anime News Network), Japan Times, Crunchyroll, 2chan, and BOT (Box Office Theory). I make attempts to promote this site/thread across all of them sometimes.

So BatB's tickets were higher priced than PotC5?

Not higher priced, exactly; it just had a higher avg. ticket price over its opening weekend.

Pirates opened on the 1st of a month, and every 1st of a month is a nationwide discount ticket day (about 40% off). As you can expect, ticket sales soar on discount days which lowers the avg. ticket price of a film while boosting admissions (especially if one falls on a weekend or holiday).

Also, theater chains in Japan offer a variety of ticket pricing depending on the individual(s). If you aren't a single male between the age of 25-50, you're very likely to get a ticket discounted below the general admission fee. Average ticket prices for films varies greatly depending on the audience it's attracting.

And none of this even takes into account the numerous other discounts offered; such as couples getting discounts, females getting discounts on Wednesdays, cinema chain exclusive discounts, early morning/late night discounts, work related discounts, 15th day of the month discounts, etc. There's a profuse amount of ticket pricing in the market.

Aah yes the discount of 1st of month. That itself made a big difference, I forgot about that when I posted.

I think it was Box Office Theory. It was awhile ago though, I've been checking the thread here for a long awhile.

Last month I posted a poll asking which additional content you guys would enjoy to see more of on a weekly basis. The second most popular choice was Daily Estimates, so I'll begin posting them beginning this week.

Weekday Estimates (07/03-07)

Monday (07/03)
¥165,000,000 ($1.5 million), 0, ¥1,215,000,000 ($10.8 million), Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (Disney) Day 3
¥60,000,000 ($530,000), 0, ¥545,000,000 ($4.8 million), Shinobi's Country (Toho) Day 3
¥23,000,000 ($205,000), -38%, ¥1,853,000,000 ($16.5 million), Confessions of a Murderer (Warner Bros.) Day 24
¥19,000,000 ($170,000), 0, ¥185,000,000 ($1.7 million), I Have Difficulty Being Loved Too Much (Shochiku) Day 3
¥17,000,000 ($150,000), -45%, ¥1,854,000,000 ($16.5 million), Hirugao: Love Affairs in the Afternoon (Toho) Day 24
¥12,000,000 ($105,000), -64%, ¥12,093,000,000 ($107.3 million), Beauty and the Beast (Disney) Day 74
¥8,000,000 ($70,000), -63%, ¥286,000,000 ($2.6 million), Hacksaw Ridge (Kino Films) Day 10
¥7,000,000 ($60,000), 0, ¥94,000,000 ($840,000), Anpanman: Buruburu's Big Treasure Hunt Adventure! (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) Day 3
¥7,000,000 ($60,000), 0, ¥77,000,000 ($680,000), Free! Timeless Medley Yakusoku (Promise) (Shochiku) Day 3
¥6,000,000 ($55,000), -55%, ¥445,000,000 ($4.0 million), Innocent Curse (Shochiku) Day 17

Tuesday (07/04)
¥135,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥1,350,000,000 ($12.0 million), Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (Disney) Day 4
¥45,000,000 ($400,000), 0, ¥590,000,000 ($5.2 million), Shinobi's Country (Toho) Day 4
¥18,000,000 ($160,000), -35%, ¥1,871,000,000 ($16.7 million), Confessions of a Murderer (Warner Bros.) Day 25
¥16,000,000 ($140,000), 0, ¥200,000,000 ($1.8 million), I Have Difficulty Being Loved Too Much (Shochiku) Day 4
¥14,000,000 ($125,000), -46%, ¥1,868,000,000 ($16.6 million), Hirugao: Love Affairs in the Afternoon (Toho) Day 25
¥9,000,000 ($80,000), -58%, ¥12,102,000,000 ($107.4 million), Beauty and the Beast (Disney) Day 75
¥7,000,000 ($60,000), -63%, ¥293,000,000 ($2.7 million), Hacksaw Ridge (Kino Films) Day 11
¥5,000,000 ($45,000), 0, ¥100,000,000 ($890,000), Anpanman: Buruburu's Big Treasure Hunt Adventure! (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) Day 4
¥5,000,000 ($45,000), 0, ¥82,000,000 ($730,000), Free! Timeless Medley Yakusoku (Promise) (Shochiku) Day 4
¥5,000,000 ($45,000), -39%, ¥450,000,000 ($4.1 million), Innocent Curse (Shochiku) Day 18

% changes versus same day last week.
Weekdays in order from strongest to weakest (typically): Wednesday > Monday > Friday > Tuesday > Thursday.

Hi corpse, any data on how much Spirited Away and Frozen made on home video sales in Japan?
does the revenue generated by home video sales added to the worldwide gross or there's another list for it? I bet YN will top this one as well

Home video sales don't get added into box office gross. Two different things reported by different companies in different ways.

But it definitely won't be anywhere near the top as far as home video sales go. Spirited Away, last I tried to work it out, ended up somewhere around 4.1 million units sold across all releases. Frozen has sold a bit under 2.5 million.

Kimi no Na wa can't be estimated easily right now. Amazon Ranking Stalker (http://rankstker.net/index_news.cgi) is currently the go-to source for estimating anime disc sales but it's mostly intended for late night TV series that sell a few hundred or thousand (or at best tens of thousands) of units per volume, not mainstream mega-hits that consistently rank in the top 10. (Should clarify that while it's based on Amazon ranking, its calibrated to predict overall first week sales as reported by Oricon, not just sales at Amazon.)

However, it is within the realm of possibility that KnNw tops out below 400k, or about 1/10th of Spirited Away. Stalker's estimate for first week sales at the moment is 291,474. There's reasons to believe that's low, and KnNw should have a strong long tail. Since Stalker isn't intended for releases of this size, it could be wildly off! But we should probably be very surprised if it gets to a million, let alone remotely approaching Spirited Away.

(NOTE: The above numbers are all based on Oricon reports, and while they're all we've got to go by unless publishers publicly report shipments, it's well known that their estimates do not reflect the full sales of any given DVD/BD release. Any given Oricon DVD/BD number could be 1/2 of the actual number shipped by the publisher, though that can vary a lot. And the shipped number matters most because that's what the publisher gets paid for.)

somekindofthing answered your question quite well.

Weekday Estimates (07/03-07)

Monday (07/03)
¥165,000,000 ($1.5 million), 0, ¥1,215,000,000 ($10.8 million), Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (Disney) Day 3
¥60,000,000 ($530,000), 0, ¥545,000,000 ($4.8 million), Shinobi's Country (Toho) Day 3
¥23,000,000 ($205,000), -38%, ¥1,853,000,000 ($16.5 million), Confessions of a Murderer (Warner Bros.) Day 24
¥19,000,000 ($170,000), 0, ¥185,000,000 ($1.7 million), I Have Difficulty Being Loved Too Much (Shochiku) Day 3
¥17,000,000 ($150,000), -45%, ¥1,854,000,000 ($16.5 million), Hirugao: Love Affairs in the Afternoon (Toho) Day 24
¥12,000,000 ($105,000), -64%, ¥12,093,000,000 ($107.3 million), Beauty and the Beast (Disney) Day 74
¥8,000,000 ($70,000), -63%, ¥286,000,000 ($2.6 million), Hacksaw Ridge (Kino Films) Day 10
¥7,000,000 ($60,000), 0, ¥94,000,000 ($840,000), Anpanman: Buruburu's Big Treasure Hunt Adventure! (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) Day 3
¥7,000,000 ($60,000), 0, ¥77,000,000 ($680,000), Free! Timeless Medley Yakusoku (Promise) (Shochiku) Day 3
¥6,000,000 ($55,000), -55%, ¥445,000,000 ($4.0 million), Innocent Curse (Shochiku) Day 17

Tuesday (07/04)
¥135,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥1,350,000,000 ($12.0 million), Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (Disney) Day 4
¥45,000,000 ($400,000), 0, ¥590,000,000 ($5.2 million), Shinobi's Country (Toho) Day 4
¥18,000,000 ($160,000), -35%, ¥1,871,000,000 ($16.7 million), Confessions of a Murderer (Warner Bros.) Day 25
¥16,000,000 ($140,000), 0, ¥200,000,000 ($1.8 million), I Have Difficulty Being Loved Too Much (Shochiku) Day 4
¥14,000,000 ($125,000), -46%, ¥1,868,000,000 ($16.6 million), Hirugao: Love Affairs in the Afternoon (Toho) Day 25
¥9,000,000 ($80,000), -58%, ¥12,102,000,000 ($107.4 million), Beauty and the Beast (Disney) Day 75
¥7,000,000 ($60,000), -63%, ¥293,000,000 ($2.7 million), Hacksaw Ridge (Kino Films) Day 11
¥5,000,000 ($45,000), 0, ¥100,000,000 ($890,000), Anpanman: Buruburu's Big Treasure Hunt Adventure! (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) Day 4
¥5,000,000 ($45,000), 0, ¥82,000,000 ($730,000), Free! Timeless Medley Yakusoku (Promise) (Shochiku) Day 4
¥5,000,000 ($45,000), -39%, ¥450,000,000 ($4.1 million), Innocent Curse (Shochiku) Day 18

Wednesday (07/05)
¥170,000,000 ($1.5 million), 0, ¥1,520,000,000 ($13.5 million), Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (Disney) Day 5
¥70,000,000 ($620,000), 0, ¥660,000,000 ($5.8 million), Shinobi's Country (Toho) Day 5
¥31,000,000 ($275,000), -43%, ¥1,899,000,000 ($16.9 million), Hirugao: Love Affairs in the Afternoon (Toho) Day 26
¥26,000,000 ($230,000), -42%, ¥1,897,000,000 ($16.9 million), Confessions of a Murderer (Warner Bros.) Day 26
¥23,000,000 ($205,000), 0, ¥225,000,000 ($2.0 million), I Have Difficulty Being Loved Too Much (Shochiku) Day 5
¥16,000,000 ($140,000), -56%, ¥12,118,000,000 ($107.5 million), Beauty and the Beast (Disney) Day 76
¥8,000,000 ($70,000), 0, ¥108,000,000 ($960,000), Anpanman: Buruburu's Big Treasure Hunt Adventure! (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) Day 5
¥8,000,000 ($70,000), 0, ¥90,000,000 ($800,000), Free! Timeless Medley Yakusoku (Promise) (Shochiku) Day 5
¥8,000,000 ($70,000), -57%, ¥301,000,000 ($2.8 million), Hacksaw Ridge (Kino Films) Day 12
¥6,000,000 ($55,000), -41%, ¥456,000,000 ($4.2 million), Innocent Curse (Shochiku) Day 19

Thursday (07/06)
¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥1,640,000,000 ($14.6 million), Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (Disney) Day 6
¥40,000,000 ($355,000), 0, ¥700,000,000 ($6.2 million), Shinobi's Country (Toho) Day 6
¥17,000,000 ($150,000), -41%, ¥1,914,000,000 ($17.1 million), Confessions of a Murderer (Warner Bros.) Day 27
¥14,000,000 ($125,000), -48%, ¥1,913,000,000 ($17.1 million), Hirugao: Love Affairs in the Afternoon (Toho) Day 27
¥14,000,000 ($125,000), 0, ¥240,000,000 ($2.1 million), I Have Difficulty Being Loved Too Much (Shochiku) Day 6
¥9,000,000 ($80,000), -60%, ¥12,127,000,000 ($107.6 million), Beauty and the Beast (Disney) Day 77
¥7,000,000 ($60,000), -56%, ¥308,000,000 ($2.8 million), Hacksaw Ridge (Kino Films) Day 13
¥6,000,000 ($55,000), 0, ¥114,000,000 ($1.0 million), Anpanman: Buruburu's Big Treasure Hunt Adventure! (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) Day 6
¥5,000,000 ($45,000), 0, ¥95,000,000 ($850,000), Free! Timeless Medley Yakusoku (Promise) (Shochiku) Day 6
¥5,000,000 ($45,000), -39%, ¥461,000,000 ($4.3 million), Innocent Curse (Shochiku) Day 20

% changes versus same day last week.
Weekdays in order from strongest to weakest (typically): Wednesday > Monday > Friday > Tuesday > Thursday.