If you look into it a bit further you’ll find it’s not even that close. A huge factor in global admission numbers is whether a film plays more regionally toward developed markets with high USD ATP like Europe, Japan, Australia or toward markets with low USD ATP like Latin America and Southern Asia.

For example, Endgame made about $260 from India, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia from ~77M admits. Avatar had a similar amount of admits from France, Japan, Germany, UK, Italy, Australia, Spain, Poland — but those contribute about $1B!

Wednesday is looking really, really good, sub-15% drop is possible versus last week, but it's possible that MOVIX is being added incorrectly in the program and any correction later today could take some sales away. Not saying a drop like this isn't possible, it's not that unusual for a social phenomenon, I'd just be a little surprised if it starts to occur at this stage of its release given how big the numbers still are.

Also, Saturday, yes Saturday (as in three days from now), is looking very strong. It's the first day that the first moviegoer benefits go out, limited 1.5 million print run, and I'd say it's going to be a big draw, likely attracting repeat viewers. Some of the busier locations are already beginning to receive multiple 50-80% full showings this far out. I wouldn't be surprised if this Saturday is flat and/or increases over last Saturday.

Ahh the admissions. @Jack Endgame is miles ahead Avatar in admissions, in fact even Infinity War is ahead Avatar.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =424252602

2PM < 7PM < Final Admissions (Usual Locations):

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (FOURTH Week):
Mon. - 71,455 < 126,132 < 148,335
Tues. - 30,751 < 60,299 < 100,663
Wed. - 58,220 <
Thur. -
Fri. -

Frozen II (First Week):
Mon. - 54,447 < 92,121 < 104,052
Tues. - 27,455 < 54,818 < 65,760
Wed. - 46,552 < 95,692 < 110,823
Thur. - 25,992 < 51,478 < 61,081
Fri. - 23,952 < 57,013 < 77,296

Weathering With You (First Week):
Mon. - 59,941 < 107,816 < 125,510
Tues. - 44,884 < 82,161 < 97,566
Wed. - 65,636 < 119,995 < 139,965
Thur. - 47,737 < 85,766 < 100,547
Fri. - 48,453 < 93,050 < 122,720

Aladdin (First Week):
Mon. - 44,268 < 90,472 < 109,847
Tues. - 24,934 < 58,999 < 76,025
Wed. - 44,968 < 99,900 < 124,887
Thur. - 22,834 < 54,159 < 70,555
Fri. - 27,992 < 68,615 < 103,910

Beauty and the Beast (First Week):
Mon. - 45,260 < 88,422 < 108,101
Tues. - 30,251 < 64,185 < 81,400
Wed. - 58,924 < 124,700 < 152,195
Thur. - 28,549 < 61,268 < 77,112
Fri. - 24,959 < 57,366 < 100,795

Mon. Result: 43% above Frozen II, 18% above Weathering With You, 35% above Aladdin, 37% above Beauty and the Beast.
Tues. Result: 53% above Frozen II, 3.2% above Weathering With You, 32.5% above Aladdin, 23.6% above Beauty and the Beast.
Wed. Result:
Thur. Result:
Fri. Result:

Thank you for updating that lately, Alo12345.

Lovely chart charlie. Thanks for the detailed information I guess I haven't done that level of detailed analysis. I can only talk about Singapore and guarantee you that the average ticket price for Avatar wasn't bigger than IW or EG but I digress I am sure you guys have done your research so I guess it is a possibility because of very high number of 3D share (though both IW and EG played exclusively in 3D for opening weekend here with MUCH higher ticket prices than Avatar and they fizzled out faster after that).

I was told 19 is wide release, let's see.

12 is right, I know someone who's going. It was on the 19th initially but they moved it forward and seemingly added some screenings too.

2PM < 7PM < Final Admissions (Usual Locations):

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (FOURTH Week):
Mon. - 71,455 < 126,132 < 148,335
Tues. - 30,751 < 60,299 < 100,663
Wed. - 58,220 < 118,548
Thur. -
Fri. -

Frozen II (First Week):
Mon. - 54,447 < 92,121 < 104,052
Tues. - 27,455 < 54,818 < 65,760
Wed. - 46,552 < 95,692 < 110,823
Thur. - 25,992 < 51,478 < 61,081
Fri. - 23,952 < 57,013 < 77,296

Weathering With You (First Week):
Mon. - 59,941 < 107,816 < 125,510
Tues. - 44,884 < 82,161 < 97,566
Wed. - 65,636 < 119,995 < 139,965
Thur. - 47,737 < 85,766 < 100,547
Fri. - 48,453 < 93,050 < 122,720

Aladdin (First Week):
Mon. - 44,268 < 90,472 < 109,847
Tues. - 24,934 < 58,999 < 76,025
Wed. - 44,968 < 99,900 < 124,887
Thur. - 22,834 < 54,159 < 70,555
Fri. - 27,992 < 68,615 < 103,910

Beauty and the Beast (First Week):
Mon. - 45,260 < 88,422 < 108,101
Tues. - 30,251 < 64,185 < 81,400
Wed. - 58,924 < 124,700 < 152,195
Thur. - 28,549 < 61,268 < 77,112
Fri. - 24,959 < 57,366 < 100,795

Seems more like a low 20s drop to me from that 7PM number — barring a correction related to capacity.

That would still be excellent though, today is the first time in a while that the weekly comparison is a “normal” day vs a “normal” day.

The drop is going to be more like 19%. A correction would have been made already, so the running total today is accurate, too. It did 176,208 last Wednesday at the usual locations.

Fun little data fact: Demon Slayer's fourth Wednesday, its 27th day in release, is bigger than Finding Dory's first Sat., last year's Pokemon's first Sat., and only about 6% less than Infinity War's opening day.

ITS UNFAIR this is on lady's day which boosts admissions a lot

Demon Slayer continues to outperform the early days of Frozen 2 in its 4th week even though matching them would be enough to beat Spirited Away, that's a good sign for the future.

Corpse I still have a question, knowing that frozen 2 was released long after Demon Slayer, Frozen 2 took advantage of the Christmas holidays and the new year much earlier than Demon Slayer, and therefore Frozen 2 was able to stabilize around $ 4M- $ 5M on weekends during this period, do you think Demon Slayer will also manage to stabilize around $ 4M- $ 5M during this period or maybe less or more? What do you think ?

It's unfair first to compare a Wednesday to opening Saturday.

Yeah, this is a fourth week weekday to first weekend day comparison.

It's probably too early to really say. It's probably safe to assume it'll at least be in that ballpark around the end of the year, its 11th week onward, but we need to get closer to that time to really predict it.

And remember New Year is two weeks long this year instead of one to prevent travel congestion. So when it (the box-office in general) reaches Christmas, note that it's not a holiday in Japan but schools (elementary/junior high first) do begin to let out a week ahead of New Year, it'll be on an unprecedented 3-week holiday period (~18 days) beginning around December 25th all the way through January 11th (national holiday).

Of this long three-week holiday period, the national holidays during it include:

Jan. 1st (New Year)
Jan. 2nd (Bank Holiday)
Jan. 3rd (Bank Holiday)
Jan. 4th (Monday's after a holiday Sunday are default holidays in the country [Happy Monday system])
Jan. 11th (Coming of Age Day)

2PM < 7PM < Final Admissions (Usual Locations):

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (FOURTH Week):
Mon. - 71,455 < 126,132 < 148,335
Tues. - 30,751 < 60,299 < 100,663
Wed. - 58,220 < 118,548 < 141,701
Thur. -
Fri. -

Frozen II (First Week):
Mon. - 54,447 < 92,121 < 104,052
Tues. - 27,455 < 54,818 < 65,760
Wed. - 46,552 < 95,692 < 110,823
Thur. - 25,992 < 51,478 < 61,081
Fri. - 23,952 < 57,013 < 77,296

Weathering With You (First Week):
Mon. - 59,941 < 107,816 < 125,510
Tues. - 44,884 < 82,161 < 97,566
Wed. - 65,636 < 119,995 < 139,965
Thur. - 47,737 < 85,766 < 100,547
Fri. - 48,453 < 93,050 < 122,720

Aladdin (First Week):
Mon. - 44,268 < 90,472 < 109,847
Tues. - 24,934 < 58,999 < 76,025
Wed. - 44,968 < 99,900 < 124,887
Thur. - 22,834 < 54,159 < 70,555
Fri. - 27,992 < 68,615 < 103,910

Beauty and the Beast (First Week):
Mon. - 45,260 < 88,422 < 108,101
Tues. - 30,251 < 64,185 < 81,400
Wed. - 58,924 < 124,700 < 152,195
Thur. - 28,549 < 61,268 < 77,112
Fri. - 24,959 < 57,366 < 100,795

Mon. Result: 43% above Frozen II, 18% above Weathering With You, 35% above Aladdin, 37% above Beauty and the Beast.
Tues. Result: 53% above Frozen II, 3.2% above Weathering With You, 32.5% above Aladdin, 23.6% above Beauty and the Beast.
Wed. Result: 39.2% above Frozen II, 1.3% above Weathering With You, 13.5% above Aladdin, 6.8% below Beauty and the Beast.
Thur. Result:
Fri. Result:

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train - Daily Performance Tracker

10/16 - Fri.: ¥1,268,724,700 ($12.0 million) / 910,507
10/17 - Sat.: ¥1,701,723,350 ($16.2 million) / 1,270,234
10/18 - Sun.: ¥1,652,669,400 ($15.7 million) / 1,239,752
10/19 - Mon.: ¥735,000,000 ($7.0 million) / 545,000
10/20 - Tues.: ¥545,000,000 ($5.1 million) / 395,000
10/21 - Wed.: ¥635,000,000 ($6.0 million) / 505,000
10/22 - Thur.: ¥465,000,000 ($4.5 million) / 340,000
10/23 - Fri.: ¥700,000,000 ($6.7 million) / 510,000
10/24 - Sat.: ¥1,500,944,600 ($14.3 million) / 1,115,182
10/25 - Sun.: ¥1,540,504,150 ($14.7 million) / 1,157,654
10/26 - Mon.: ¥620,000,000 ($5.9 million) / 460,000
10/27 - Tues.: ¥410,000,000 ($3.9 million) / 300,000
10/28 - Wed.: ¥575,000,000 ($5.5 million) / 430,000
10/29 - Thur.: ¥390,000,000 ($3.7 million) / 285,000
10/30 - Fri.: ¥555,000,000 ($5.3 million) / 405,000
10/31 - Sat.: ¥1,212,312,550 ($11.6 million) / 887,893
11/01 - Sun.: ¥1,286,354,600 ($12.3 million) / 1,140,390 *Discount Day*
11/02 - Mon: ¥820,000,000 ($7.8 million) / 605,000 *Holiday Boosted*
11/03 - Tues.: ¥1,230,000,000 ($11.8 million) / 925,000 *Holiday*
11/04 - Wed.: ¥350,000,000 ($3.3 million) / 260,000
11/05 - Thur.: ¥230,000,000 ($2.2 million) / 170,000
11/06 - Fri.: ¥270,000,000 ($2.6 million) / 200,000
11/07 - Sat.: ¥863,827,750 ($8.3 million) / 628,614
11/08 - Sun.: ¥909,098,150 ($8.8 million) / 667,179
11/09 - Mon.: ¥290,000,000 ($2.8 million) / 215,000 *est.*
11/10 - Tues.: ¥195,000,000 ($1.9 million) / 145,000 *est.*
11/11 - Wed.: ¥270,000,000 ($2.6 million) / 210,000 *est.*

27-Day Cumulative Total: ¥21,238,611,650 ($202.7 million) / 15,943,943 *est.*

Did I miss last weekend's Top Ten?

viewtopic.php?f=12&t=55322&start=14650

Unfortunately, the two estimates there still aren't in. I'll PM you if they're ever reported.

Thank You - It's hard to keep track with so many new pages every day...

I knew we had lurkers (thread views were always very high versus posts), and I'm glad all of them have joined over the past month.

Thank all of you for joining!