Thursday will at least match Tuesday, I think, so no worries there. And it might even begin increasing around that time. Doraemon was looking at an increase on Tuesday before slipping off in the evening, suggesting the holiday bump is quickly approaching (as in a day or two away). Doraemon will determine when the holiday boosts begin since it's the youngest skewing film in release right now.

While we don't have dailies for films like Spirited Away or Titanic, it's almost certainly a record since at least them. We can check to make 100% certain, but it's likely that Frozen and Your Name. dipped below that mark before their 13th weekends.

Frozen did ￥383m in 14th weekday, ￥295m in 15th weekday
The first day under 50m should be Tuesday of 15th week, or 95 days before breaking that mark

Your Name, 12th Tuesday, 74 days

Charlie Jat, I have a question about your predictions for the holiday period, why are you predicting $1M tomorrow, $1.25M Thursday, and $2M Friday ? I think those days will be under $1M and act normally, right ?

Let's make 96 days the goal, then.

lmao, I don't mean to be pessimistic, but it's almost certain that DS will one day be below ¥50 million by February.

I will like to ask @corpse. Do holiday period boost start from 23rd December like rest of world?

Frozen 2 last year had 50% better hold on 23rd December Monday than its previous Mondays.

Regarding Thurs its Xmas Eve & Friday is Xmas.

I can be wrong for sure. Very very new to Japan box office I am.

I have first day under ¥50mn on 15th Jan but quite possible on 12th December too.

That would be quite the downward adjustment from 588

It honestly really varies by film. Once the holidays kick in, you'll notice just how much of a variance there is between different films (talking hundreds of percent differences).

Unless a film has enough family appeal, they don't really benefit much until the actual New Year week. It also depends the day of the week dates land on. Since Christmas isn't a holiday in Japan (very important to remember versus much of the world), many schools will still likely be in session until then. Back in 2015, the last year Christmas was on a Friday, the weekdays leading up to then (and even Christmas itself) behaved normally with the exception of Yo-Kai Watch which began to increase since it was a younger-skewing film.

Therefore, I wouldn't anticipate much of any benefit this year until the weekend.

But we know that some schools did enter Winter break on Tuesday, because Doraemon (the youngest skewing film in release right now) was up for half of the day before slipping in the evening. These would have been the some of the elementary schools and daycares and such. And more will go on break as we get closer to the weekend (junior > high > college, in that order), but again, I don't think anything besides Doraemon (which may begin increasing from tomorrow, Wednesday) will experience any major benefit until the weekend itself.

Gonna shoot my shot early. +100%

If DS become new no.1 all time on Sat, will the news report it immediately or they wait until Monday?

Doubtful. Box office returns aren't reported on a daily basis, so the announcements will come Monday morning. And just in time, too, to begin the holiday period proper to attract anyone who hasn't been interested yet, and/or those who will soon have the time to check it out as the new #1 film.

If they report on Sat, the effect may come sooner in Sun and Mon I think.

First number from Wed at 9.30am at usual locations, Doraemon and Fate are alreay at nearly 100% comparing to last week.

Edit: it seems Wed still not holiday yet, just some schools out only.

Can't really gauge much so early in the day, but most schools will still be in session until the weekend (Christmas is not a holiday), so don't expect too much until then. Only the elementary (and earlier) schools have begun to let out at this point.

And there aren't very many children in Japan these days. There are more people over 75 (almost over 80) than under 14 now. Just 11.9% of the population is under 14, and just 7.7% is under 10, so the initial impact at the box-office this week will be very small until the Junior/High Schools and Colleges go on break this weekend.

Last year christmas day was on tue or wed and i remember that whole week got bump already. This year christmas day is on thu and fri....hm...... not good as last year.

That's because you're comparing two different type of weeks. I've gone over this A LOT today. I go over this stuff ahead of time so it's not brought up so much.

Christmas Day is not a holiday. Therefore, schools aren't going to let out days ahead of time if it lands on a Friday. This is a relatively normal week, with the exception of some elementary schools letting out a couple days before the weekend that will have minimal impact and just for Doraemon since it's the only young-skewing film in release right now.

Last year, Christmas Day (or more importantly, the 25th of December) was in the middle of the week, meaning schools were already starting to go on break during the first part/middle of the week since it was a week from New Year. That's not the case this year.

Back in 2015, the last time Christmas landed on a Friday (only counting the films in the Top 10), here is how the dailies behaved:

Nothing increased on that Monday (21st).
Nothing increased on that Tuesday (22nd).
3 films increased on that Wednesday (23rd) since it was a holiday, but the 23rd is no longer a holiday because the Emperor then has since abdicated, so Emperor's Day was moved.
All but two increased on that Thursday (24th) as most, but not all (Colleges) began their break.
3 films increased on that Friday (25th), all younger-skewing films only since Christmas isn't a holiday and workplaces are open until New Year.

This year 2 holidays week will be from 28th Dec (Mon) to 11th Jan (Mon) ??

Yep. New Year Week is stronger than the prior week though, as both students and workers are off. Businesses don't go on holiday until New Year, so films appealing towards adults don't see much benefit during the last week of December.

Just curious about the time when Spirited Away was released in 2001 in Japan, I read a comment on FB said: "during a time were anime was still not as mainstream as it is today." Is this true? But then another comment: ""Anime is mainstream for both films as far as release goes. It was mainstream in Japan back in the 80s."

So not as strong as I was expecting but I was wrong in my expectations.

Looks like 40k Wednesday which is 40% better than normal but daily increase seems normal because Tuesday is also better than normal.

Wed/Sunday ratio

Week 7: 97/323 = 30%
Week 8: 87/240 = 36%
Week 9: 85/248 = 34%

Week 10: ~71/148 = 48%

These weekdays might also not be big because its weekend is going to be gargantuan as seen by early pre-sales numbers. People who are interested in DS are booking it over this weekend.

Personally, I think that the biggest day of these holidays will be the coming Saturday, that is to say the first day of the holidays thanks to the 4DX, the gifts ... and then there will be no a bigger day even if the new year week will have strong days. What do you think ?

Absolutely! These giveaways weekends have been acting as holiday weekends and with the added bonus of 4DX it should be the biggest boost/increase it will receive. Though I can see the next Saturday/Sunday to match or increase in gross over this weekend because I feel the 4DX screens will still be full next weekend.

4DX is only available on weekend or also on weekdays ???