Are this year's gains washed away by this drought?

2012 has probably caught up to or is very close to 2013 now because last May had Thermae Romae breakout big. Thermae Romae grossed more than what Iron Man 3, Library Wars, and Shield of Straw will end up combining for. Not that those three films are disappointing, they're doing very well.

This Summer however (Summer doesn't officially begin in Japan until July) will be much bigger than last Summer.

Domestically there's a Hayao Miyazaki film, The Wind Rises (7/20), being released, and his films have more potential than any other in the market. A new Pokemon (7/13) film featuring fan-favorite Mewtwo (first time he's appeared since the first movie in 1998), and the new film in the popular Galileo series, Midsummer Formula (6/29).

And Hollywood's biggest film, Monsters University (7/06), will gross way more than anything they released last Summer. And they're also offering a host of potential hits like Pacific Rim (8/09), The Lone Ranger (8/02), and World War Z (8/10). The only films that earned more than ¥3 billion last Summer for Hollywood were The Avengers and Spider-Man. Surely one or more of the three titles mentioned will match or better those.

What do you see for the potential range on MU? I know MI was a huge success over there, second only to Nemo.

Monsters University will be one of the most interesting films to watch this year. There is a lot going for it, but there's also a couple negatives that could play a big role such as: The really long wait (this can also be a huge positive) and coming off of Brave's complete failure. Brave showed that Pixar aren't infallible in the market when it didn't even earn ¥1 billion and ranked outside the Top 60 films of 2012.

As for how much I think it'll gross... I think it could go anywhere from ¥4 billion ($40 million) to ¥10 billion+ ($100 million+). That's a ridiculous range, I know, and most agree it'll be Hollywood's top film this year (though Les Miserables won't be that easy to beat) but few of them agree on a projected total.

A couple months ago Monsters University advance tickets went on sale and it outsold every previous Pixar title either that day/week/month (time frame not specified). When the original film airs on TV a few days prior to the release of the new film, the rating it receives will be another early indicator on how the film may perform out of the gate. TV ratings of previous films or finales/specials for TV dramas leading up to a new release in a series is a common way to gauge how well the marking has been and potential.

Weekend Ranking (5/25-26)

1 (1) The Complex (Shochiku) Week 2 [162 theaters]
2 (2) Phone Call to a Bar 2 (Toei) Week 3 [305 theaters]
3 (3) Detective Conan: Private Eye in the Distant Sea (Toho) Week 6 [338 theaters]
4 (6) Shield of Straw (Warner Bros.) Week 5 [323 theaters]
5 (4) Iron Man 3 (Disney) Week 5 [326 theaters]
6 (5) Prefecture Government's Hospitality Division (Toho) Week 3 [292 theaters]
7 (7) Library Wars (Toho) Week 5 [311 theaters]
8 (8) Crayon Shin-chan: Gourmet Survival Class (Toho) Week 6 [250 theaters]
9 (9) Middle-School Student Maruyama (Toei) Week 2 [179 theaters]
10 (-) It's Me, It's Me (J-Storm) DEBUT! [65 theaters]
11 (10) Kamen Rider X Super Sentai X Space Sheriff (Toei) Week 5 [288 theaters]
12 (-) Kiss (Toei) DEBUT! [83 theaters]

The Complex has no problem staying on top and dipped just 9% in it's second weekend.

It's Me, It's Me was the only opener (all limited releases) to debut in the top 10. Over the weekend, it earned ¥44,390,800 ($440,000) with 31,549 admissions on just 65 screens.

Besides the weekend increase for Shield of Straw and strong holds across the board, a very boring weekend. I can understand why studios want their films released in time for Golden Week (late April), but it's leaving mid/late May with dismal numbers.

Some bigger releases are finally on the way this weekend and pretty much every week thereafter until late September.

What's being released next weekend Corpse?

May 31st
Oblivion (Toho-Towa) [346 theaters]
Real (Toho) [269 theaters]
Reverend King Ichidai: The Grandmasters (Gaga) [???]

June 1st
Way of the Beginning (Shochiku) [???]
Bullet to the Head (Shochiku) [???]

All of these, two are known, should be wide releases. And in limited there is Stoker (Fox), A Company Man (Pony Canyon), and Garden of Kotonoha (Toho Video Division).

Given how weak the market is currently, they should all be able to open very well.

Lucky Japs.

2013 Top Grossing Films
Total Gross / Admissions :: Film :: Days in Release :: Distributor

¥10 billion ↨
¥6.85 billion ($76.9 million) / 5.67 million :: One Piece Film Z :: Final Estimate :: Toei
¥5.81 billion ($64.8 million) / 4.74 million :: Les Miserables :: Tracking Ends :: Toho-Towa
¥5 billion ↨
¥4.19 billion ($46.0 million) / 3.08 million :: Ted :: Tracking Ends :: Toho-Towa
¥4 billion ↨
¥3.96 billion ($43.2 million) / 3.64 million :: Doraemon: Nobita's Secret Gagdet Museum :: Tracking Ends :: Toho
¥3.34 billion ($33.7 million) / 2.77 million :: Detective Conan: Private Eye in the Distant Sea :: 37 :: Toho
¥3 billion ↨
¥2.96 billion ($31.8 million) / 2.41 million :: Wreck-It Ralph :: Tracking Ends :: Disney
¥2.92 billion ($30.1 million) / 2.27 million :: Dragon Ball Z: Battle of Gods :: Tracking Ends :: Toei
¥2.82 billion ($32.4 million) / 2.21 million :: 007: Skyfall :: Tracking Ends :: Sony
¥2.58 billion ($27.6 million) / 2.08 million :: Platinum Data :: Final Estimate :: Toho
¥2.40 billion ($24.5 million) / 1.63 million :: Iron Man 3 :: 31 :: Disney
¥2.11 billion ($23.5 million) / 1.70 million :: Strawberry Night :: Final Estimate :: Toho
¥2.03 billion ($22.3 million) / 1.49 million :: A Good Day to Die Hard :: Tracking Ends :: Fox
¥2 billion ↨
¥1.82 billion ($21.1 million) / 1.26 million :: Life of Pi :: Tracking Ends :: Fox
¥1.75 billion ($20.0 million) / 1.45 million :: Today, I Started Loving You :: Tracking Ends :: Toho
¥1.74 billion ($18.9 million) / 1.23 million :: Oz: The Great and Powerful :: Tracking Ends :: Disney
¥1.64 billion ($18.9 million) / 1.16 million :: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey :: Tracking Ends :: Warner Bros.
¥1.62 billion ($17.6 million) / 1.47 million :: Tokyo Family :: Tracking Ends :: Shochiku
¥1.54 billion ($15.9 million) / 1.21 million :: Shield of Straw :: 30 :: Warner Bros.
¥1.46 billion ($15.3 million) / 1.16 million :: Library Wars :: 30 :: Toho
¥1.26 billion ($13.7 million) / 1.07 million :: Aibou Series: X-Day :: Tracking Ends :: Toei
¥1.25 billion ($13.9 million) / 0.99 million :: Brain Man :: Final Estimate :: Toho
¥1.17 billion ($13.2 million) / 0.99 million :: Hunter X Hunter: The Phantom Rouge :: Tracking Ends :: Toho
¥1.17 billion ($11.9 million) / 1.02 million :: Crayon Shin-chan: Gourmet Survival Class :: 37 :: Toho
¥1.14 billion ($13.0 million) / 1.03 million :: Kamen Rider X Kamen Rider Fourze & Wizard :: Tracking Ends :: Toei
¥1.13 billion ($12.9 million) / 0.95 million :: Humanoid Monster, Bem :: Tracking Ends :: Toho
¥1.07 billion ($11.3 million) / 0.87 million :: Jack Reacher :: Tracking Ends :: Paramount
¥1 billion ↑

I updated the Top Grossing Films too early this week.

Final estimates for several films including Les Miserables (big gain), Life of Pi, The Hobbit, Hunter X Hunter and Pretty Cure All Stars were released earlier today:

2013 Top Grossing Films
Total Gross / Admissions :: Film :: Days in Release :: Distributor

¥10 billion ↨
¥6.85 billion ($76.9 million) / 5.67 million :: One Piece Film Z :: Final Estimate :: Toei
¥6.11 billion ($67.7 million) / 4.97 million :: Les Miserables :: Final Estimate :: Toho-Towa
¥5 billion ↨
¥4.19 billion ($46.0 million) / 3.08 million :: Ted :: Tracking Ends :: Toho-Towa
¥4 billion ↨
¥3.96 billion ($43.2 million) / 3.64 million :: Doraemon: Nobita's Secret Gagdet Museum :: Tracking Ends :: Toho
¥3.34 billion ($33.7 million) / 2.77 million :: Detective Conan: Private Eye in the Distant Sea :: 37 :: Toho
¥3 billion ↨
¥2.96 billion ($31.8 million) / 2.41 million :: Wreck-It Ralph :: Tracking Ends :: Disney
¥2.92 billion ($30.1 million) / 2.27 million :: Dragon Ball Z: Battle of Gods :: Tracking Ends :: Toei
¥2.82 billion ($32.4 million) / 2.21 million :: 007: Skyfall :: Tracking Ends :: Sony
¥2.58 billion ($27.6 million) / 2.08 million :: Platinum Data :: Final Estimate :: Toho
¥2.40 billion ($24.5 million) / 1.63 million :: Iron Man 3 :: 31 :: Disney
¥2.11 billion ($23.5 million) / 1.70 million :: Strawberry Night :: Final Estimate :: Toho
¥2.03 billion ($22.3 million) / 1.49 million :: A Good Day to Die Hard :: Final Estimate :: Fox
¥2 billion ↨
¥1.84 billion ($21.3 million) / 1.28 million :: Life of Pi :: Final Estimate :: Fox
¥1.78 billion ($20.2 million) / 1.25 million :: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey :: Final Estimate :: Warner Bros.
¥1.75 billion ($20.0 million) / 1.45 million :: Today, I Started Loving You :: Tracking Ends :: Toho
¥1.74 billion ($18.9 million) / 1.23 million :: Oz: The Great and Powerful :: Tracking Ends :: Disney
¥1.62 billion ($17.6 million) / 1.47 million :: Tokyo Family :: Tracking Ends :: Shochiku
¥1.54 billion ($15.9 million) / 1.21 million :: Shield of Straw :: 30 :: Warner Bros.
¥1.46 billion ($15.3 million) / 1.16 million :: Library Wars :: 30 :: Toho
¥1.26 billion ($13.7 million) / 1.07 million :: Aibou Series: X-Day :: Tracking Ends :: Toei
¥1.25 billion ($13.9 million) / 0.99 million :: Brain Man :: Final Estimate :: Toho
¥1.18 billion ($13.3 million) / 1.00 million :: Hunter X Hunter: The Phantom Rouge :: Final Estimate :: Toho
¥1.17 billion ($11.9 million) / 1.02 million :: Crayon Shin-chan: Gourmet Survival Class :: 37 :: Toho
¥1.14 billion ($13.0 million) / 1.03 million :: Kamen Rider X Kamen Rider Fourze & Wizard :: Tracking Ends :: Toei
¥1.13 billion ($12.9 million) / 0.95 million :: Humanoid Monster, Bem :: Tracking Ends :: Toho
¥1.07 billion ($11.3 million) / 0.87 million :: Jack Reacher :: Tracking Ends :: Paramount
¥1.05 billion ($11.0 million) / 0.98 million :: Pretty Cure All Stars: New Stage 2 :: Final Estimate :: Toei
¥1 billion ↑

Les Mis looks to have gone up rather a bit. Is that unusual? Although I guess given its run it is not so strange in context.

Most films see like a 2% increase from their last tracking total/estimate. Les Miserables got about a 5% increase. It's unusual, but the film was still playing at 52 locations I believe going into Golden Week when tracking ended. So the unaccounted for holiday bump then would explain it. Plus it hasn't entirely wrapped up it's run quite yet.

Les Miserables is still playing in 16 theaters as of this week, so that final estimate of ¥6.11 billion may still see a small uptick before the end of the year.

Some major release date announcements/changes this week:

SPEC: Final Chapter - Progress Version - 11/01/2013
SPEC: Final Chapter - Crisscross Version - 11/29/2013
Detective Conan Vs. Lupin III - December 2013
The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug - Moved from 12/14/2013 to March 2014.
Thermae Romae 2, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 and Maleficent - Golden Week 2014 (Late April).
Transformers 4 - August 2014
The Avengers 2 - Golden Week 2015 (Late April)
Pirates of the Caribbean 5 - 07/11/2015

The Hobbit is going back to the franchise's original spot (Spring). All of The Lord of the Rings films opened in March.

Golden Week was crowded this year with Detective Conan, Iron Man 3, Library Wars and Shield of Straw, but Golden Week 2014 is going to even moreso. And it's weird that Maleficent is being released so early in Japan. It's listed for July everywhere else so far.

I'm going to try a new tracking method this Summer using Eiga's Check-In (via social networks) system. I excluded this weekend's releases and I'll update the list every week.

Requirements:
*100+ Check-Ins
*Major or Notable Studio Release

Eiga Check-In List (Update 5/31)
# of Check-Ins - Film (Days until Release)

Upcoming Domestic Releases:
719 - The Wind Rises (50 Days)
645 - Galileo: Midsummer Formula (29 Days)
571 - I've Not Done My Best Yet! (15 Days)
360 - The After-Dinner Mysteries (63 Days)
355 - Anohana: Flower We Saw That Day (93 Days)
305 - Miracle Apples (8 Days)
302 - Ghost in the Shell: Arise (22 Days)
288 - To Cry 100 Times (22 Days)
271 - Gintama: The Final Chapter (36 Days)
261 - Goodbye Valley (22 Days)
219 - Gatchaman: The Movie (85 Days)
209 - Short Peace (50 Days)
179 - Emperor (57 Days)
154 - Pokemon BW: ExtremeSpeed Genesect: Mewtwo Awakens (43 Days)
107 - Boy H (71 Days)

Upcoming Foreign Releases:
840 - Monsters University (36 Days)
628 - World War Z (71 Days)
615 - Fast and Furious 6 (36 Days)
612 - Star Trek Into Darkness (84 Days)
602 - Man of Steel (92 Days)
591 - After Earth (21 Days)
496 - Pacific Rim (70 Days)
472 - The Lone Ranger (62 Days)
331 - Olympus Has Fallen (8 Days)
224 - Lawless (29 Days)
208 - Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters (75 Days)
197 - Gone (15 Days)
110 - Contraband (15 Days)

:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

Future Domestic Releases:
505 - SPEC: Final Chapter - Progess Version (154 Days)
500 - Like Father, Like Son (127 Days) *Cannes Jury Prize Winner*
465 - Evangelion 4.0: Final (TBA 2013/2014)
389 - Eternal Zero (December 2013)
368 - Thermae Romae 2 (April 2014)
358 - SPEC: Final Chapter - Crisscross Version (182 Days)
253 - Kiyosu Conference (November 2013)
206 - King of Apology (120 Days)
185 - The Girl in the Sun (October 2013)
179 - Captain Harlock (99 Days)
153 - Clean Tender (148 Days)
153 - Godzilla (TBA 2014)
142 - Tiger & Bunny: The Rising (253 Days)
139 - The Princess Kaguya Story (Fall 2013)
134 - God's Medical Record 2 (TBA 2014)
129 - Ataru: The First Love and the Last Kill (106 Days)
100 - Mole's Song: The Movie (February 2014)

Future Foreign Releases:
627 - Wolverine: Samurai (105 Days)
508 - Pirates of the Caribbean 5 (771 Days)
506 - The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (March 2014)
461 - The Avengers 2 (April 2015)
376 - The Hobbit: There and Back Again (TBA 2014/2015)
307 - Thor: Dark World (February 2014)
284 - RED 2 (December 2013)
267 - The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (April 2014)
208 - Elysium (112 Days)
172 - 47 Ronin (TBA 2013)
164 - RoboCop (Spring 2014)
153 - Godzilla (TBA 2014)
144 - Guardians of the Galaxy (September 2014)
134 - Star Wars Episode VII (TBA 2015)
133 - The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (December 2013)
116 - Maleficent (April 2014)

Weekend Ranking (6/1-2)



1 (-) Oblivion (Toho-Towa) ¥370 million ($3.7 million) DEBUT! [346 theaters]
2 (-) Real (Toho) ¥200 million ($2.0 million) DEBUT! [270 theaters]
3 (-) The Grandmasters (Gaga) ¥110 million ($1.1 million) DEBUT! [284 theaters]
4 (1) The Complex (Shochiku) ¥90 million ($900,000) Week 3
5 (2) Phone Call to a Bar 2 (Toei) ¥70 million ($700,000) Week 4
6 (3) Detective Conan: Private Eye in the Distant Sea (Toho) ¥65 million ($650,000) Week 7
7 (4) Iron Man 3 (Disney) ¥60 million ($600,000) Week 6
8 (-) Way to the Beginning (Shochiku) ¥50 million ($500,000) DEBUT! [104 theaters]
9 (-) Bullet to the Head (Shochiku) ¥45 million ($450,000) DEBUT! [124 theaters]
10 (5) Prefecture Government's Hospitality Division (Toho) ¥40 million ($400,000) Week 3

Finally the Box-Office livens up some. Saturday is a Discount Ticket Day (Toho Cinemas), falling on the first of the month, so expect stronger admissions.

Oblivion is easily outpacing the other films at Toho Cinemas and should see an impressive debut on top. It'll be the first imported-film to rank #1 since Wreck-It Ralph 10 weeks ago.

Real and the Chinese import The Grandmasters will also see solid openings, especially when compared to the past few weeks.

Awesome news.

Japan will be one of the highest markets for Bullet to the Head if that projection stays true. And Oblivion making #1 and $3.7m, just wow! It's the sort of clean, visually impressive and captivating film that the Japs should like a lot.

Tom Cruise may have peaked in the early 2000s, but he is still the most popular actor in the market. The only dud he's had was Rock of Ages, but that one is certainly understandable.

Johnny Depp would be second and will remain there until he has a blockbuster film outside of Pirates and Tim Burton features. Pirates is Pirates and Japan is probably Burton's best/most reliable overseas market. Only Big Fish and Frankenweenie (both without Depp...) failed to debut on top or reach the ¥1 billion mark since 1999. The Lone Ranger will prove how much star power Depp has on his own.

It will be a test, for sure, and so far it's not looking great. I'm not sure how it looks in Japan.. are people anticipating it?

It's going to do well but how well? Armie Hammer was in Japan for his first time some weeks ago promoting the film. Anytime an actor visits to promote a film helps quite a bit.



Depp will surely stop by before the film's release day. The Japanese adore him, welcoming him in costume (Sparrow, Wonka, Sweeney, etc) as soon as he gets off the plane most of the time.

Yeah, but Armie Hammer is kind of a nobody. Depp's arrival will surely make a difference. The cast of The Expendables didn't really make much difference to The Expendables' opening, and I thought the Japs liked Stallone, or at least he had a loyal following.

Cruise is well liked in Japan, so Oblivion was expected to make good numbers, just remember how great MI4 performed

I remember how well The Last Samurai did.

^ that film was enormous there , it's also one of the highest grossing imported films in Japan

Yep.