So, before posting how big Beauty and the Beast's second weekend really was, I have to say that 2017 is looking enormous right now and I wouldn't be shocked if it surpasses 2016 (which was the highest-grossing year of all-time, and the most-attended year since 1974).

Once it and Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter exceed ¥4 billion, that'll give 2017 an incredible NINE ¥4 billion earners already, which is only two films shy of setting an all-time record and those will easily come once July/August rolls around, so the previous record is going to get smashed with several months to spare.

Just look at the chart above. There are usually way more ¥1/2 billion earners versus ¥3/4 billion+ earners, and while I'm sure that 2017 will eventually balance itself out a bit, the number of hits/soon-to-be blockbusters already is remarkable.

The Japanese Box Office has been growing each consecutive year since 2012 in revenue and admissions, and it's clear the box office boom isn't slowing down yet.

I knew BatB would do great in Japan. Let's see if it can manage $100m from Japan now that its got the audience attention.

What's the reason behind this? Is it the economy or are audiences getting younger (or older) or are there more theaters or anything else?

Being a popular musical, I wonder if BatB will get a higher number of repeat viewings as people check out both the English and Japanese versions (which reportedly drove up Frozen's admissions).

I'm sure it's a combination of various factors, with four being very likely:

1. It's most likely not the economy, at least not entirely. It's still quite a stagnant economy, experiencing minuscule ~1% gains the past few years, however, it has been increasing since 2012, which is when the box office has been growing as well, so perhaps there's some correlation there.

And interestingly enough, despite the mostly stagnant economy and very low inflation, the GPD Per Capita and Working-Aged Adults continues to see steady growth year after year (ahead of the U.S. in certain categories). Japan's economy is often looked upon as stagnant and doomed, and while the country's real GPD is growing much slower than other major countries, its people and economy are doing perfectly fine.

2. The box office growing for five consecutive years, perhaps six by the looks of 2017 so far, could be due to the aging population. The elderly population (65+) is closing in on 40 million people (30% of the population), and while a lot of Japanese tend to work well past 65, an aging population could mean more "free" time to perhaps visit the cinemas more often.

3. There are more theaters/screens being built, and even though it's been a slow process over many years, 2016 ended up with more screens than any year since 1969. However, a whopping ~80% of box office receipts comes from just three of the nine regions of Japan: Kanto (Tokyo), Kansai (Osaka, Kyoto), and Chubu (Nagoya), so additional screens likely isn't a leading factor, unless I'm underestimating its impact.

4. And lastly, and perhaps most importantly, the Japanese simply like to attend their own films more than imported releases. If you look back at decades past, the Japanese box office thrives more with the success of Japanese films, and when more are released, and that's been the case now for nine consecutive years.

I also have a bit of free time at the moment, I'm going to move forward with posting the Daily Estimates for Golden Week (they're quite impressive thus far).

Can Sing overtake Moana?

Unlikely, but it's not impossible. Either way, it certainly came much closer than most expected, and if it actually beats it it'll be an incredible feat.

Golden Week 2017 (Weekday Estimates - 05/01-05)

Monday (05/01) - Nationwide Discount Day
¥375,000,000 ($3.3 million), +77%, ¥4,025,000,000 ($36.0 million), Beauty and the Beast (Day 11)
¥215,000,000 ($1.9 million), 0, ¥1,065,000,000 ($9.5 million), The Fate of the Furious (Day 4)
¥135,000,000 ($1.2 million), +32%, ¥3,925,000,000 ($35.1 million), Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Day 17)
¥75,000,000 ($665,000), 0, ¥265,000,000 ($2.4 million), Blade of the Immortal (Day 3)
¥70,000,000 ($620,000), 0, ¥295,000,000 ($2.6 million), Teiichi: Battle of Supreme High (Day 3)
¥25,000,000 ($220,000), +25%, ¥330,000,000 ($2.9 million), March Comes in Like a Lion - Part 2 (Day 10)
¥20,000,000 ($175,000), -15%, ¥855,000,000 ($7.7 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Invasion!! Shiriri (Day 17)
¥20,000,000 ($175,000), +33%, ¥4,720,000,000 ($42.3 million), Sing (Day 46)
¥10,000,000 ($90,000), +29%, ¥4,940,000,000 ($44.3 million), Moana (Day 53)
¥10,000,000 ($90,000), +50%, ¥920,000,000 ($8.2 million), Ghost in the Shell (Day 24)

Tuesday (05/02)
¥245,000,000 ($2.2 million), +38%, ¥4,270,000,000 ($38.2 million), Beauty and the Beast (Day 12)
¥155,000,000 ($1.4 million), 0, ¥1,220,000,000 ($10.9 million), The Fate of the Furious (Day 5)
¥85,000,000 ($755,000), +57%, ¥4,010,000,000 ($35.9 million), Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Day 18)
¥45,000,000 ($400,000), 0, ¥310,000,000 ($2.8 million), Blade of the Immortal (Day 4)
¥45,000,000 ($400,000), 0, ¥340,000,000 ($3.0 million), Teiichi: Battle of Supreme High (Day 4)
¥15,000,000 ($135,000), +147%, ¥870,000,000 ($7.8 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Invasion!! Shiriri (Day 18)
¥15,000,000 ($135,000), -11%, ¥345,000,000 ($3.0 million), March Comes in Like a Lion - Part 2 (Day 11)
¥10,000,000 ($90,000), +59%, ¥4,730,000,000 ($42.4 million), Sing (Day 47)
¥7,000,000 ($60,000), +07%, ¥930,000,000 ($8.3 million), Ghost in the Shell (Day 25)
¥6,000,000 ($55,000), +56%, ¥4,945,000,000 ($44.4 million), Moana (Day 54)

Wednesday (05/03) - Constitution Day / Women's Day
¥605,000,000 ($5.4 million), +96%, ¥4,875,000,000 ($43.6 million), Beauty and the Beast (Day 13)
¥310,000,000 ($2.7 million, +279%, ¥4,320,000,000 ($38.6 million), Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Day 19)
¥245,000,000 ($2.2 million), 0, ¥1,425,000,000 ($13.1 million), The Fate of the Furious (Day 6)
¥130,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥440,000,000 ($3.9 million), Blade of the Immortal (Day 5)
¥105,000,000 ($930,000), +1,125%, ¥975,000,000 ($8.7 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Invasion!! Shiriri (Day 19)
¥75,000,000 ($665,000), 0, ¥415,000,000 ($3.7 million), Teiichi: Battle of Supreme High (Day 5)
¥70,000,000 ($620,000), 0, ¥70,000,000 ($620,000), The Last Cop: The Movie (Day 1)
¥40,000,000 ($355,000), +260%, ¥4,770,000,000 ($42.8 million), Sing (Day 48)
¥30,000,000 ($265,000), +44%, ¥375,000,000 ($3.3 million), March Comes in Like a Lion - Part 2 (Day 12)
¥25,000,000 ($220,000), +259%, ¥4,970,000,000 ($44.6 million), Moana (Day 55)

Thursday (05/04) - Greenery Day
Friday (05/05) - Children's Day

% changes versus same day last week.

That Crayon Shin-Chan Wednesday increase

Wow. Beauty and the Beast will already be close to Fantastic Beasts' total by end of the weekend. Looks like it will pass it sometime next week.

Thanks!

Japan might become the biggest foreign market for BATB as well

Very likely. The UK looks to finish with ~$90 million, and I'm increasingly confident that Japan's result will surpass that. $100 million+ also looks pretty good right now unless it rapidly declines post-Golden Week, but that's unlikely since May and June are typically devoid of any major releases, so it'll likely reign atop the box office for quite awhile.

Golden Week 2017 (Weekday Estimates - 05/01-05)

Monday (05/01) - Nationwide Discount Day
¥375,000,000 ($3.3 million), +77%, ¥4,025,000,000 ($36.0 million), Beauty and the Beast (Day 11)
¥215,000,000 ($1.9 million), 0, ¥1,065,000,000 ($9.5 million), The Fate of the Furious (Day 4)
¥135,000,000 ($1.2 million), +32%, ¥3,925,000,000 ($35.1 million), Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Day 17)
¥75,000,000 ($665,000), 0, ¥265,000,000 ($2.4 million), Blade of the Immortal (Day 3)
¥70,000,000 ($620,000), 0, ¥295,000,000 ($2.6 million), Teiichi: Battle of Supreme High (Day 3)
¥25,000,000 ($220,000), +25%, ¥330,000,000 ($2.9 million), March Comes in Like a Lion - Part 2 (Day 10)
¥20,000,000 ($175,000), -15%, ¥855,000,000 ($7.7 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Invasion!! Shiriri (Day 17)
¥20,000,000 ($175,000), +33%, ¥4,720,000,000 ($42.3 million), Sing (Day 46)
¥10,000,000 ($90,000), +29%, ¥4,940,000,000 ($44.3 million), Moana (Day 53)
¥10,000,000 ($90,000), +50%, ¥920,000,000 ($8.2 million), Ghost in the Shell (Day 24)

Tuesday (05/02)
¥245,000,000 ($2.2 million), +38%, ¥4,270,000,000 ($38.2 million), Beauty and the Beast (Day 12)
¥155,000,000 ($1.4 million), 0, ¥1,220,000,000 ($10.9 million), The Fate of the Furious (Day 5)
¥85,000,000 ($755,000), +57%, ¥4,010,000,000 ($35.9 million), Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Day 18)
¥45,000,000 ($400,000), 0, ¥310,000,000 ($2.8 million), Blade of the Immortal (Day 4)
¥45,000,000 ($400,000), 0, ¥340,000,000 ($3.0 million), Teiichi: Battle of Supreme High (Day 4)
¥15,000,000 ($135,000), +147%, ¥870,000,000 ($7.8 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Invasion!! Shiriri (Day 18)
¥15,000,000 ($135,000), -11%, ¥345,000,000 ($3.0 million), March Comes in Like a Lion - Part 2 (Day 11)
¥10,000,000 ($90,000), +59%, ¥4,730,000,000 ($42.4 million), Sing (Day 47)
¥7,000,000 ($60,000), +07%, ¥930,000,000 ($8.3 million), Ghost in the Shell (Day 25)
¥6,000,000 ($55,000), +56%, ¥4,945,000,000 ($44.4 million), Moana (Day 54)

Wednesday (05/03) - Constitution Day / Women's Day
¥605,000,000 ($5.4 million), +96%, ¥4,875,000,000 ($43.6 million), Beauty and the Beast (Day 13)
¥310,000,000 ($2.7 million), +279%, ¥4,320,000,000 ($38.6 million), Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Day 19)
¥245,000,000 ($2.2 million), 0, ¥1,425,000,000 ($13.1 million), The Fate of the Furious (Day 6)
¥130,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥440,000,000 ($3.9 million), Blade of the Immortal (Day 5)
¥105,000,000 ($930,000), +1,125%, ¥975,000,000 ($8.7 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Invasion!! Shiriri (Day 19)
¥75,000,000 ($665,000), 0, ¥415,000,000 ($3.7 million), Teiichi: Battle of Supreme High (Day 5)
¥70,000,000 ($620,000), 0, ¥70,000,000 ($620,000), The Last Cop: The Movie (Day 1)
¥40,000,000 ($355,000), +260%, ¥4,770,000,000 ($42.8 million), Sing (Day 48)
¥30,000,000 ($265,000), +44%, ¥375,000,000 ($3.3 million), March Comes in Like a Lion - Part 2 (Day 12)
¥25,000,000 ($220,000), +259%, ¥4,970,000,000 ($44.6 million), Moana (Day 55)

Thursday (05/04) - Greenery Day
¥570,000,000 ($5.1 million), +235%, ¥5,445,000,000 ($48.7 million), Beauty and the Beast (Day 14)
¥305,000,000 ($2.7 million), +524%, ¥4,625,000,000 ($41.3 million), Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Day 20)
¥255,000,000 ($2.3 million), 0, ¥1,680,000,000 ($15.4 million), The Fate of the Furious (Day 7)
¥125,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥565,000,000 ($5.0 million), Blade of the Immortal (Day 6)
¥100,000,000 ($890,000), +1,100%, ¥1,075,000,000 ($9.6 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Invasion!! Shiriri (Day 20)
¥70,000,000 ($620,000), 0, ¥485,000,000 ($4.3 million), Teiichi: Battle of Supreme High (Day 6)
¥60,000,000 ($530,000), 0, ¥130,000,000 ($1.1 million), The Last Cop: The Movie (Day 2)
¥40,000,000 ($355,000), +589%, ¥4,810,000,000 ($43.1 million), Sing (Day 49)
¥25,000,000 ($220,000), +596%, ¥4,995,000,000 ($44.8 million), Moana (Day 56)
¥25,000,000 ($220,000), +108%, ¥400,000,000 ($3.5 million), March Comes in Like a Lion - Part 2 (Day 13)

Friday (05/05) - Children's Day

% changes versus same day last week.

BatB should cross $50m on Friday and Detective Conan will get ahead of Moana and Sing's total I presume

does Pirates have a good release date here?

Easily to the former (probably up to ~$53/54 million), and partially to the latter. Detective Conan will surpass Sing's total today, but it'll likely be just shy of Moana - of course, it'll ease past it over the weekend with no trouble.

True. Didn't realize both Moana and Sing are still doing HUGE numbers thanks to the holiday weekend.

Very good. It opens on July 1st, a discount day and the first weekend of July which serves as a prelude to Summer Vacation (beginning on July 15th this year). I have no doubt that Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales will be a huge hit. Japan should once again be the top overseas market for Pirates, unless it excels in China this time.

In Japan, students go on Summer Vacation in mid-July and it lasts through til the end of August (6 weeks), and then most adults get mid-August off for Obon Week. July and August are the two strongest months of the year at the box office. That's why May and June are two of the weakest months of the year, and typically devoid of any interesting releases.

Do you think it can do over 10 billion yen, or will it fall from its predecessor (as many predict will happen in North America)?

The fourth film was the first in the series to decrease from its predecessor, but it was also the first taking place outside of the original trilogy's storyline and maintained a reasonable audience retention.

Pirates 5 is reintroducing Orlando Bloom and Keira Knightley, though, and seems to have elements of the origin of Johnny Depp's character, so perhaps all of this will increase its potential.

If it decreases from the fourth film, it shouldn't be by much since the drop off already occurred. But either way, a total of ¥10 billion ($90 million) or more won't be easy, though it's possible given the factors I listed above, the strong release date, and the continued growth of the Japanese box office for the last 5 consecutive (probably gonna be 6) years.

¥10.90 billion ($102.4 million) / 8.40 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
¥10.02 billion ($82.3 million) / 7.75 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
¥8.87 billion ($114.9 million) / 5.86 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
¥6.80 billion ($60.3 million) / 5.10 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl

I'd say Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales is good for at least ¥7-8 billion ($60-70 million), with potential for a bit more if revisiting Will and Elizabeth and discovering Jack's origin proves successful. It's been among the Most-Searched Films on various popular movie sites for a long time now, so interest is definitely there.

Golden Week 2017 (Weekday Estimates - 05/01-05)

Monday (05/01) - Nationwide Discount Day
¥375,000,000 ($3.3 million), +77%, ¥4,025,000,000 ($36.0 million), Beauty and the Beast (Day 11)
¥215,000,000 ($1.9 million), 0, ¥1,065,000,000 ($9.5 million), The Fate of the Furious (Day 4)
¥135,000,000 ($1.2 million), +32%, ¥3,925,000,000 ($35.1 million), Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Day 17)
¥75,000,000 ($665,000), 0, ¥265,000,000 ($2.4 million), Blade of the Immortal (Day 3)
¥70,000,000 ($620,000), 0, ¥295,000,000 ($2.6 million), Teiichi: Battle of Supreme High (Day 3)
¥25,000,000 ($220,000), +25%, ¥330,000,000 ($2.9 million), March Comes in Like a Lion - Part 2 (Day 10)
¥20,000,000 ($175,000), -15%, ¥855,000,000 ($7.7 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Invasion!! Shiriri (Day 17)
¥20,000,000 ($175,000), +33%, ¥4,720,000,000 ($42.3 million), Sing (Day 46)
¥10,000,000 ($90,000), +29%, ¥4,940,000,000 ($44.3 million), Moana (Day 53)
¥10,000,000 ($90,000), +50%, ¥920,000,000 ($8.2 million), Ghost in the Shell (Day 24)

Tuesday (05/02)
¥245,000,000 ($2.2 million), +38%, ¥4,270,000,000 ($38.2 million), Beauty and the Beast (Day 12)
¥155,000,000 ($1.4 million), 0, ¥1,220,000,000 ($10.9 million), The Fate of the Furious (Day 5)
¥85,000,000 ($755,000), +57%, ¥4,010,000,000 ($35.9 million), Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Day 18)
¥45,000,000 ($400,000), 0, ¥310,000,000 ($2.8 million), Blade of the Immortal (Day 4)
¥45,000,000 ($400,000), 0, ¥340,000,000 ($3.0 million), Teiichi: Battle of Supreme High (Day 4)
¥15,000,000 ($135,000), +147%, ¥870,000,000 ($7.8 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Invasion!! Shiriri (Day 18)
¥15,000,000 ($135,000), -11%, ¥345,000,000 ($3.0 million), March Comes in Like a Lion - Part 2 (Day 11)
¥10,000,000 ($90,000), +59%, ¥4,730,000,000 ($42.4 million), Sing (Day 47)
¥7,000,000 ($60,000), +07%, ¥930,000,000 ($8.3 million), Ghost in the Shell (Day 25)
¥6,000,000 ($55,000), +56%, ¥4,945,000,000 ($44.4 million), Moana (Day 54)

Wednesday (05/03) - Constitution Day / Women's Day
¥605,000,000 ($5.4 million), +96%, ¥4,875,000,000 ($43.6 million), Beauty and the Beast (Day 13)
¥310,000,000 ($2.7 million), +279%, ¥4,320,000,000 ($38.6 million), Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Day 19)
¥245,000,000 ($2.2 million), 0, ¥1,425,000,000 ($13.1 million), The Fate of the Furious (Day 6)
¥130,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥440,000,000 ($3.9 million), Blade of the Immortal (Day 5)
¥105,000,000 ($930,000), +1,125%, ¥975,000,000 ($8.7 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Invasion!! Shiriri (Day 19)
¥75,000,000 ($665,000), 0, ¥415,000,000 ($3.7 million), Teiichi: Battle of Supreme High (Day 5)
¥70,000,000 ($620,000), 0, ¥70,000,000 ($620,000), The Last Cop: The Movie (Day 1)
¥40,000,000 ($355,000), +260%, ¥4,770,000,000 ($42.8 million), Sing (Day 48)
¥30,000,000 ($265,000), +44%, ¥375,000,000 ($3.3 million), March Comes in Like a Lion - Part 2 (Day 12)
¥25,000,000 ($220,000), +259%, ¥4,970,000,000 ($44.6 million), Moana (Day 55)

Thursday (05/04) - Greenery Day
¥570,000,000 ($5.1 million), +235%, ¥5,445,000,000 ($48.7 million), Beauty and the Beast (Day 14)
¥305,000,000 ($2.7 million), +524%, ¥4,625,000,000 ($41.3 million), Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Day 20)
¥255,000,000 ($2.3 million), 0, ¥1,680,000,000 ($15.4 million), The Fate of the Furious (Day 7)
¥125,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥565,000,000 ($5.0 million), Blade of the Immortal (Day 6)
¥100,000,000 ($890,000), +1,100%, ¥1,075,000,000 ($9.6 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Invasion!! Shiriri (Day 20)
¥70,000,000 ($620,000), 0, ¥485,000,000 ($4.3 million), Teiichi: Battle of Supreme High (Day 6)
¥60,000,000 ($530,000), 0, ¥130,000,000 ($1.1 million), The Last Cop: The Movie (Day 2)
¥40,000,000 ($355,000), +589%, ¥4,810,000,000 ($43.1 million), Sing (Day 49)
¥25,000,000 ($220,000), +596%, ¥4,995,000,000 ($44.8 million), Moana (Day 56)
¥25,000,000 ($220,000), +108%, ¥400,000,000 ($3.5 million), March Comes in Like a Lion - Part 2 (Day 13)

Friday (05/05) - Children's Day
¥575,000,000 ($5.1 million), +202%, ¥6,020,000,000 ($53.8 million), Beauty and the Beast (Day 15)
¥300,000,000 ($2.7 million), +361%, ¥4,925,000,000 ($44.0 million), Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Day 21)
¥255,000,000 ($2.3 million), +15%, ¥1,935,000,000 ($17.7 million), The Fate of the Furious (Day 8)
¥135,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥700,000,000 ($6.2 million), Blade of the Immortal (Day 7)
¥105,000,000 ($930,000), +1,529%, ¥1,180,000,000 ($10.5 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Invasion!! Shiriri (Day 21)
¥65,000,000 ($575,000), 0, ¥550,000,000 ($4.9 million), Teiichi: Battle of Supreme High (Day 7)
¥60,000,000 ($530,000), 0, ¥190,000,000 ($1.7 million), The Last Cop: The Movie (Day 3)
¥45,000,000 ($400,000), +630%, ¥4,855,000,000 ($43.5 million), Sing (Day 50)
¥30,000,000 ($265,000), +698%, ¥5,025,000,000 ($45.1 million), Moana (Day 57)
¥25,000,000 ($220,000), +64%, ¥425,000,000 ($3.7 million), March Comes in Like a Lion - Part 2 (Day 14)

% changes versus same day last week.

And that concludes a very, very strong Golden Week this year.

The weekend following Golden Week typically experiences some large drops, but pre-sales and morning/afternoon ticket sales for today (Saturday) look fairly good; of course, Sunday will likely be way down compared to last Sunday, so drops will probably fall inline with past post-GW weekends despite the encouraging early Saturday ticket sales.

The Weekend Forecast will be posted in an hour or two,