Yeah, like I said, 25% looks out of reach. For now I’m hoping it can beat TO by 20% with ~23.66%, but we’ll see what the holidays bring.

The average (geometric mean) hold vs 2 weekends prior — so, for wknds 3-9 — is 67%, for a 33% drop. The weekdays coincidentally are 33% down from 2 weeks ago. So I’ll predict 33% down from wknd 8, for ~440M.

I thought rather 55% drop for Demon Slayer but since you are generally precise in your predictions I think that again you will get it right.

On the other hand, 37% drop for New Interpretation Records of the Three Kingdoms ? I would rather have thought of a better drop with 20-25%, no ? Why such a high drop ?

Early loss of screens as more movies are released this weekend. 37% is still a reasonable drop as its Friday wasn't big enough for a 20-25% drop.

Ok ok thank you, I hoped better for three kingdoms

It'd be a good enough drop. ¥4 billion (~$40 million) still very much doable if its second weekend and total land around the prediction, which would be excellent. That's potential yearly Top 10 territory in any normal year.

@Corpse: where do you often find article about how much a movie impact people in society in general such as the article about DS you posted before?

At 10 a.m. : Already down 85% compared to last Saturday

I hope that the drop will decrease and that it will improve during the day

Pssshhh, that’s barely 10% of a good total



Last Saturday was crazy presales heavy, we still look fine for a low 200ish day I think.

The longer a film is in release, the more its showtimes begin to shrink. Not just in the number of showings, but during what time of day as well. It depends on a film's demographic, but generally the early morning showings (7am-9am) are the first to get cut, then followed by the late-night showings (9pm-11pm).

Holdovers will tend to start the day off lower than what they'll actually finish at. In Demon Slayer's case, it's going to even more pronounced on the non-giveaway weekends since the morning/afternoon showings on the giveaway weekends are so strong due to reservations. It's going to see a big drop today (remember last Saturday was up a 96%!), I'm expecting 60%+, but it won't drop over 80% or anything like that.

That one I just shared from ANN (animenewsnetwork) topic on it. Generally, they're a good source for more anime/manga related material. But there are a lot out there, probably even better ones now, but ANN is a site that I've visited for a really long time. I remember going there back in High School. I feel like it's been around for like 20 years.

You can check Eiga.com from time to time for articles about movies and such, but your question isn't one that's usually covered since it's a pretty rare occurrence. There were articles about how fans of Your Name. would make so-called pilgrimages to the locations in the film, so that's probably something you're looking for.

Yahoo! Movies (JP) also posts good articles on films, too.

Yes of course I understand, all I hope for today is a drop of 65%. If it gets worse than that, too bad it's not serious since anyway a big drop was expected and he will make up for it well I hope next week, and if he does better than that, even if it seems to be difficult, it would be incredible and so much the better.

Wonder how next movie would do if especially a non canon movie through that's what I expect because any arc is not short enough for movie .

I mean, if ufotable really decides to do it, then they can make the final arc into trilogy movies just like they did with Heaven's Feel (and Heaven's Feel in the VN is quite long. I finished it a long time ago, and I remember taking a week to finish it).
So it's definitely possible. Especially the that needs a movie animation (with a lot of outsourcing to different animators) because of all the but it might still be possible with TV animation if it's ufotable.

Yes final arc can get trio but I would still prefer season and they can do movies on demon slayer light novels seem like all hashiras will get their own demon slayer light novels are literally best selling in Japan .

I would say 70% drop today, more that I hoped. Three kingdoms above Demon Slayer

Yeah, 70%ish drop. But not exactly surprising, nor is it bad. It did increase 96% last Saturday after all, and a good portion of the normal MOVIX Cinema business was delayed until Sunday (20th is their discount day).

Three Kingdoms beat it at the Usual Locations, but ~2,500 admissions is quite small and makes it a bit of a toss-up nationwide.

Sunday should see sizable gains for everything.

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train - Daily Performance Tracker

10/16 - Fri.: ¥1,268,724,700 ($12.0 million) / 910,507
10/17 - Sat.: ¥1,701,723,350 ($16.2 million) / 1,270,234
10/18 - Sun.: ¥1,652,669,400 ($15.7 million) / 1,239,752
10/19 - Mon.: ¥735,000,000 ($7.0 million) / 545,000
10/20 - Tues.: ¥545,000,000 ($5.1 million) / 395,000
10/21 - Wed.: ¥635,000,000 ($6.0 million) / 505,000
10/22 - Thur.: ¥465,000,000 ($4.5 million) / 340,000
10/23 - Fri.: ¥700,000,000 ($6.7 million) / 510,000
10/24 - Sat.: ¥1,500,944,600 ($14.3 million) / 1,115,182
10/25 - Sun.: ¥1,540,504,150 ($14.7 million) / 1,157,654
10/26 - Mon.: ¥620,000,000 ($5.9 million) / 460,000
10/27 - Tues.: ¥410,000,000 ($3.9 million) / 300,000
10/28 - Wed.: ¥575,000,000 ($5.5 million) / 430,000
10/29 - Thur.: ¥390,000,000 ($3.7 million) / 285,000
10/30 - Fri.: ¥555,000,000 ($5.3 million) / 405,000
10/31 - Sat.: ¥1,212,312,550 ($11.6 million) / 887,893
11/01 - Sun.: ¥1,286,354,600 ($12.3 million) / 1,140,390 *Discount Day*
11/02 - Mon: ¥820,000,000 ($7.8 million) / 605,000 *Holiday Boosted*
11/03 - Tues.: ¥1,185,000,000 ($11.3 million) / 900,000 *Holiday*
11/04 - Wed.: ¥350,000,000 ($3.3 million) / 260,000
11/05 - Thur.: ¥230,000,000 ($2.2 million) / 170,000
11/06 - Fri.: ¥325,000,000 ($3.1 million) / 240,000
11/07 - Sat.: ¥863,827,750 ($8.3 million) / 628,614
11/08 - Sun.: ¥909,098,150 ($8.8 million) / 667,179
11/09 - Mon.: ¥315,000,000 ($3.0 million) / 230,000
11/10 - Tues.: ¥220,000,000 ($2.1 million) / 160,000
11/11 - Wed.: ¥295,000,000 ($2.8 million) / 230,000
11/12 - Thur.: ¥200,000,000 ($1.9 million) / 145,000
11/13 - Fri.: ¥310,000,000 ($3.0 million) / 225,000
11/14 - Sat.: ¥795,343,500 ($7.6 million) / 611,418
11/15 - Sun.: ¥726,313,550 ($6.9 million) / 535,986
11/16 - Mon.: ¥265,000,000 ($2.5 million) / 195,000
11/17 - Tues.: ¥165,000,000 ($1.6 million) / 120,000
11/18 - Wed.: ¥240,000,000 ($2.3 million) / 185,000
11/19 - Thur.: ¥165,000,000 ($1.6 million) / 120,000
11/20 - Fri.: ¥240,000,000 ($2.3 million) / 170,000
11/21 - Sat.: ¥439,606,550 ($4.2 million) / 314,726
11/22 - Sun.: ¥592,738,550 ($5.7 million) / 433,315
11/23 - Mon.: ¥460,110,250 ($4.4 million) / 357,741 *Holiday*
11/24 - Tues.: ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million) / 90,000
11/25 - Wed.: ¥160,000,000 ($1.5 million) / 120,000
11/26 - Thur.: ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million) / 85,000
11/27 - Fri.: ¥195,000,000 ($1.9 million) / 130,000
11/28 - Sat.: ¥556,443,300 ($5.3 million) / 392,017
11/29 - Sun: ¥448,060,450 ($4.3 million) / 320,031
11/30 - Mon.: ¥140,000,000 ($1.3 million) / 105,000
12/01 - Tues.: ¥170,000,000 ($1.6 million) / 145,000 *Discount Day*
12/02 - Wed.: ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million) /100,000
12/03 - Thur.: ¥x95,000,000 ($0.9 million) / x70,000
12/04 - Fri.: ¥145,000,000 ($1.4 million) / 105,000
12/05 - Sat.: ¥319,013,550 ($3.1 million) / 225,976
12/06 - Sun.: ¥336,505,700 ($3.2 million) / 239,874
12/07 - Mon.: ¥100,000,000 ($1.0 million) / x75,000
12/08 - Tues.: ¥x85,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x55,000
12/09 - Wed.: ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million) / x90,000
12/10 - Thur.: ¥x85,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x60,000
12/11 - Fri.: ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million) / x80,000
12/12 - Sat.: ¥588,408,200 ($5.7 million) / 407,286
12/13 - Sun.: ¥351,003,000 ($3.4 million) / 248,024
12/14 - Mon.: ¥120,000,000 ($1.2 million) / x85,000 *est.*
12/15 - Tues.: ¥x85,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x60,000 *est.*
12/16 - Wed.: ¥110,000,000 ($1.1 million) / x80,000 *est.*
12/17 - Thur.: ¥x75,000,000 ($0.7 million) / x55,000 *est.*
12/18 - Fri.: ¥x90,000,000 ($0.9 million) / x65,000 *est.*
12/19 - Sat.: ¥185,000,000 ($1.8 million) / 130,000 *est.*

65-Day Cumulative Total: ¥30,954,307,700 ($295.4 million) / 23,014,385

Note: Mon.-Fri. are estimates (excluding Holiday Mondays), therefore adding up each day won't equal the actual total.

Today *would* have been the day it surpassed Spirited Away to become the new #1 film of all-time, but as mentioned earlier in the week, Toho decided to add Spirited Away's re-release figure from this Summer to its total making it ¥31.68 billion now and the new goal. So now it'll surpass Spirited Away and become the new #1 film of all-time either next Friday or 100% so next Saturday.

With this sunday can Demon Slayer still go for 10 consecutive weeks on number one spot or Three Kingdoms might take it?

It's a toss-up heading into Sunday. Generally films that have family-appeal enjoy the bigger Sunday, so since families make up a bigger portion of Demon Slayer's audience than Three Kingdoms, it's still advantage Demon Slayer, but it'll be close.

We haven't really had any opportunity to see how Demon Slayer will perform on a normal Sunday yet despite it now being in its 10th weekend due to the giveaways every other week or a discount day or holiday (even if just two) landing just right to play big role in the Sunday numbers. The closest Sundays to being "normal" were on 11/08 (but it did come off a discounted Sunday from the prior week) and 12/06 (but that came off a giveaway from the prior week).

So it's been a bit difficult to gauge how a normal Sunday will behave. Tomorrow, while it's also after a giveaway weekend and is also a MOVIX discount day, will probably be the most "normal" Sunday so far. Last Saturday's giveaway was so heaving skewed toward the Saturday, it won't have as far to drop versus last Sunday like on 12/06. And MOVIX discount day, while it will provide a boost tomorrow, it won't be nearly as significant as a Toho/Aeon discount day or holiday or anything like that. It might even act as a small negator of sorts from the post-giveaway drop.

So tomorrow will be as close to a normal Sunday yet, I believe, until, well, all the way until Jan. 24th because every Sunday until then will either be positively or negatively impacted by a giveaway (12/27), holiday (01/03), holiday Monday (01/10), and post-holiday (01/17). It will have managed to avoid any normal Sunday for over three months.

Saturday Estimates for the weekend openers:

¥130-140 million ($1.3-1.4 million) / 100,000-105,000 - The Promised Neverland
¥65-75 million ($0.6-0.7 million) / 45,000-50,000 - Wonder Woman 1984
¥60-70 million ($0.6-0.7 million) /50,000-55,000 - Kamen Rider Zero-One: REAL x TIME

Good day for The Promised Neverland, pretty much doubling the other openers. It'll likely get above ¥250 million (~$2.5 million) over the weekend frame, and depending on whether it gets a Sunday bump (it should, but not guaranteed being an opener with a fanbase), it might get close to/slightly over ¥300 million (~$3.0 million). It's out-performing many other live-action Shounen films so far.

Wonder Woman 1984 is under-performing, even for expectations. It wasn't likely to see a big jump from Friday, but it's only up 20%, if that today. It should get to or just over ¥150 million (~$1.5 million) over the weekend frame, assuming at least a flat Sunday, but that's about a 45% decline versus the original film. Again, it wasn't expected to match the original film, but this is a rough result that makes reaching ¥1 billion (~$10 million) challenging.

Kamen Rider Zero-One: REAL x TIME did alright, but it failed to double up on Friday which it should have been able to do. It's also aiming for around ¥150 million (~$1.5 million) based on this; it's not a bad number, wouldn't be the worst Kamen Rider debut or anything. But it is coming in on the low-end unless it receives a significant Sunday bump.

But let's wait to see what happens on Sunday before making determinations. Everything *should* see decent bumps tomorrow since it's a MOVIX discount day, which could have had a slight deflating effect on the Saturday numbers.

Ahh man! What a disastrous opening for WW84. Sunday is crashing, seems like 25-30% drop from already awful Saturday. Was hoping for a TENET type surprise, but ugh. @Corpse how much do you think piracy would impact?

Yeah, Wonder Woman is looking in bad shape. Somehow it's down so far today versus Saturday, making it the only film in the top 10 to be trailing Saturday's admissions at the moment...

I mean, it wasn't expected to do particularly well. Remember that DC films don't do well in the market, including the first Wonder Woman, but this is looking at a bigger drop-off than the lowest expectations if it doesn't bounce back in the next few hours.

Piracy is almost non-existent in the market. Anti-piracy laws are very, very strict, and was even expanded on just this year. Several years in prison and crippling fines for just the smaller cases (including jail time for illegal uploads/downloads), so it almost never happens with any form of media in the country.

I was actually going to mention in its weekend analysis that imported films sometimes struggle if they get released in Japan either before or at the same time as the rest of the world. Imported films tend to fair better when released weeks/months after everywhere else. That might be the case here, but I just think it boils down to very little interest in it since, again, the first film wasn't popular and DC films (and superhero films in general) don't perform well in Japan. Casual moviegoers will have zero interest in this film, so it's only attracting the few diehard fans of the original and imported superhero films.

During holiday period, weekdays are more important than weekend, right?