I think the potential drop will be caused more by last Sunday being a discount day rather than the DVD announcement.

Not saying the DVD announcement isn't having some effect, but it's common for large weekend drops on post-discount weekends. And last weekend happened to be the first discount weekend since the tax hike went into effect in April, and Sunday (the discount day) was much stronger than past discount days that have fallen on a weekend due to that reason I believe.

Wow, so even using your low guess of $140 (which seems incredibly high), Rocky IV would have made $9.8m in VHS sales in the first half of 1987, not to mention its 1986 revenue (which would have been huge, I imagine).

Weekend Estimates [06/07-08]

01 (01) ¥592 million ($5.8 million), -23%, ¥22.30 billion ($218.6 million), Frozen (Disney) Week 13
02 (02) ¥143 million ($1.4 million), -48%, ¥785 million ($7.8 million), X-Men: Days of Future Past (Fox) Week 2
03 (03) ¥124 million ($1.2 million), -36%, ¥560 million ($5.5 million), Monsterz (Warner Bros.) Week 2
04 (04) ¥93 million ($920,000), -38%, ¥780 million ($7.7 million), A Bolt from the Sky (Toho) Week 3
05 (05) ¥76 million ($750,000), -46%, ¥370 million ($3.6 million), All-Around Appraiser Q: Mona Lisa's Eye (Toho) Week 2
06 (--) ¥71 million ($700,000), 0, Need for Speed (Disney) DEBUT
07 (--) ¥67 million ($680,000), 0, Pompeii (Gaga) DEBUT
08 (--) ¥60 million ($590,000), 0, ¥75 million ($740,000), The Grand Budapest Hotel (Fox) DEBUT
09 (06) ¥58 million ($570,000), -49%, ¥4.21 billion ($41.3 million), Thermae Romae II (Toho) Week 7
10 (--) ¥56 million ($550,000), 0, Persona 3 the Movie 2: A Midsummer Knight's Dream (Aniplex) DEBUT
11 (--) ¥47 million ($460,000), 0, ¥60 million ($590,000), 2013 Police Story (Broad Media Studios) DEBUT
12 (11) ¥32 million ($310,000), -29%, ¥1.71 billion ($16.8 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Serious Battle! Robot Dad Strikes (Toho) Week 8
13 (08) ¥31 million ($300,000), -40%, ¥470 million ($4.6 million), Mobile Suit Gundam UC: Episode 7 - Over the Rainbow (Shochiku) Week 4
14 (09) ¥29 million ($285,000), -42%, ¥3.98 billion ($39.1 million), Detective Conan: The Sniper from Another Dimension (Toho) Week 8
15 (10) ¥29 million ($280,000), -37%, ¥570 million ($5.6 million), Ushijima the Loan Shark 2 (Toho) Week 4
16 (07) ¥28 million ($270,000), -52%, ¥3.01 billion ($29.5 million), The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (Sony) Week 7

>Frozen as per usual has no problems remaining atop the box-office again, now claiming 13th-consecutive weeks there and it's unlikely to be dethroned the remainder of the month, too.

June is largely a dumping ground for new releases since it's between holidays and during busy school and workplace times.

>The estimates for all the openers except for Need for Speed (since it was a very wide release in 300+ theaters) are very much estimates. Anything that opens in less than 200 theaters can be difficult to gather estimates on, so the other four debuts could very much change. I think Pompeii will actually move ahead of Need for Speed, and I'm hoping The Grand Budapest Hotel did better than that. The ticket sales I saw for Saturday were pretty strong, but then again, it's only playing in 100 theaters and on small/medium screens, too, so I may have overpredicted it.

Frozen's Path to ¥25 billion+ ($250 million+)

¥763 million ($7.5 million)
¥872 million ($8.5 million), +13%, ¥3.01 billion ($29.6 million)
¥881 million ($8.6 million), +01%, ¥5.28 billion ($51.6 million)
¥850 million ($8.3 million), -03%, ¥7.71 billion ($74.8 million)
¥841 million ($8.2 million), -01%, ¥9.28 billion ($90.7 million)
¥826 million ($8.1 million), -02%, ¥10.73 billion ($104.8 million)
¥772 million ($7.6 million), -07%, ¥12.10 billion ($118.4 million)
¥1.12 billion ($11.1 million), +46%, ¥14.62 billion ($143.4 million)
¥738 million ($7.2 million), -34%, ¥17.08 billion ($167.4 million)
¥807 million ($7.9 million), +09%, ¥18.53 billion ($181.8 million)
¥700 million ($6.9 million), -13%, ¥19.85 billion ($194.6 million)
¥759 million ($7.5 million), +08%, ¥21.23 billion ($208.1 million)
¥592 million ($5.8 million), -23%, ¥22.30 billion ($218.6 million) *Est*

Frozen is consistently earning more on a weekly basis than in the US now, this week being the second-consecutive.

What's the absolute minimum for Frozen now? $260 million?

The minimum should be ¥26 billion ($255 million), so yeah, more or less.

It would need a measly ¥200 million to surpass Titanic's ¥26.2 billion to become the #2 film all-time, and biggest western film of all-time at that point though, so it's safe to assume it will indeed claim both of those. It has already beaten Titanic in admissions (quite easily) and in USD (also quite easily), too.

It will also become the #1 film of all-time in USD, ahead of Spirited Away's $244 million.

Literally the only records left for it to take will soon be Spirited Away's ¥30.4 billion total and its 23.5 million admissions. I think these two records are unlikely to fall, but they are still very much in play as I have Frozen on track for ¥28 billion ($275 million) and 22 million admissions. And needless to say, I have been undertracking it most of its run, too.

Assuming nothing weird happens from now and July 16th, when the DVD is released, the July 19-20 weekend has everything riding on it. With it on DVD, will theaters finally cut its screens/showtimes in favor of Memories of Marnie (Ghibli) and Pokemon, or will they keep it playing through summer?

I will compile a list of all the records Frozen has broken in the coming weeks, and they are quite numerous.

Disney is still going ahead with the DVD release in July?

I know the Japanese buy lots of tickets for homegrown sequels, but would a sequel to FROZEN work in Japan?

Yep, it is being released on July 16th, and if the Maleficent (Jolie)/Edge of Tomorrow (Cruise) combo doesn't dethrone it on the July 05-06 weekend, it will still be reigning atop the box-office when the DVD hits stores. July is one of the best times for DVD releases, but they should have delayed it by months.

Regarding Frozen 2, it's hard to say. Sequels (excluding annual franchises) have actually been on the decline in recent years, while more original works have been exceeding expectations. Very few sequels are managing anywhere near the success of their predecessor(s).

Finding Dory may be an indication of what a sequel to Frozen could do, but then again, Frozen is way, way out of Finding Nemo's league at the box-office. It's going to nearly triple its numbers.

Top 12 Studios and Yearly Box Office (January through April)

Rank - Revenue, % change, Studio - Market Share (Jan-Apr)
01. ¥26.6 billion ($261 million), +71.0%, Toho - 41.4%
02. ¥15.4 billion ($151 million), +168.8%, Disney - 24.0%
03. ¥4.83 billion ($47 million), -46.5%, Toei - 7.5%
04. ¥3.99 billion ($39 million), +74.9%, Warner Bros. - 6.2%
05. ¥3.94 billion ($38 million), -3.3%, Shochiku - 6.1%
06. ¥2.08 billion ($21 million), +29.3%, Gaga - 3.2%
07. ¥1.59 billion ($15 million), +37.8%, Sony - 2.5%
08. ¥1.40 billion ($14 million), -72.7%, Fox - 2.2%
09. ¥850 million ($8.4 million), -15.1%, Kadokawa - 1.3%
10. ¥690 million ($6.8 million), -92.5%, Toho-Towa - 1.1%
11. ¥640 million ($6.3 million), +1,203.9%, Asmik Ace - 1.0%
12. ¥500 million ($4.9 million), -59.0%, Showgate - 0.8%

Top 12 Studio Results (Jan-Apr.): ¥62.51 billion ($613 million), +10.0%
2014 Box Office Total (Jan-Apr.): ¥64.16 billion ($629 million), +10.1%

Disney is the closest any studio has come to Toho since 2006. Frozen will bring them closer since it has earned a lot more post-April, but they won't be able to catch Toho. Disney really just has Maleficent left to post any significant figures for the year.

Toho has been the #1 studio for 8-consecutive years, claiming a 30-40% market share every year since 2006.

Shouldn't that be at least $216m? I mean, Frozen was released this year and is distributed by Disney..

(Jan-Apr)

Frozen was around $130 million before May 1st. The other $21 million is from Planes (December holdover), Ender's Game (January), Thor: The Dark World (February) and Saving Mr. Banks (March).

Yes, oops.

http://news.moviefone.com/2014/06/03/divorce-frozen/

LOL

It sounds like a fake article designed to generate hits, but you never know I guess.

Top Grossing (Superhero) Comic Book Films

01. Spider-Man - ¥7.50 billion ($59.2 million)
02. Spider-Man 3 - ¥7.12 billion ($66.9 million)
03. Spider-Man 2 - ¥6.70 billion ($61.1 million)
04. The Avengers - ¥3.61 billion ($46.2 million)
05. The Amazing Spider-Man - ¥3.16 billion ($39.1 million)
06. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 - ¥3.03 billion ($29.6 million) [7 Weeks in Release]
07. Batman - ¥3.00 billion ($20.0 million)
08. Iron Man 3 - ¥2.57 billion ($26.4 million)
09. Superman II - ¥2.55 billion ($12.0 million)
10. The Dark Knight Rises - ¥1.97 million ($24.2 million)
11. X-Men - ¥1.85 billion ($18.1 million)
12. X2: X-Men United - ¥1.80 billion ($15.9 million)
13. The Dark Knight - ¥1.60 billion ($15.8 million)
14. X-Men: The Last Stand - ¥1.53 billion ($14.3 million)
15. Superman Returns - ¥1.50 billion ($11.9 million)
16. Batman Begins - ¥1.40 billion ($14.1 million)
17. Iron Man 2 - ¥1.20 billion ($13.7 million)

Man of Steel - ¥970 million ($9.8 million)
Fantastic Four - ¥950 million ($10.1 million)
Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer - ¥900 million ($9.3 million)
X-Men Origins: Wolverine - ¥900 million ($9.8 million)
Hulk - ¥850 million ($8.2 million)
The Wolverine - ¥820 million ($8.4 million)
Iron Man - ¥800 million ($8.9 million)
X-Men: First Class - ¥750 million ($8.0 million)
Captain America: The Winter Soldier - ¥690 million ($6.8 million)
X-Men: Days of Future Past - ¥673 million ($6.7 million) [2 Weeks in Release]
Thor: The Dark World - ¥640 million ($6.2 million)
Thor - ¥550 million ($7.0 million)
Captain America: The First Avenger - ¥400 million ($5.0 million)
The Incredible Hulk - ¥250 million ($2.0 million)
Green Lantern - ¥200 million ($1.9 million)

I've removed both The Incredibles and Hancock from the list.

Corpse how did X men fair this weekend? Looks like a good hold from that $6.7m total.

It dropped a very hefty 50%, but its opening weekend was inflated a bit by a discount ticket day. It's looking at a $12/13 million total.

So, pretty shit for DoFP.

I mean... it's going to outgross First Class and both Wolverine films, but still fall short of the original 3 films. It's doing okay.

I just looked up how The Specialist performed in 1995. In its first 6 days, it grossed $3m from 122 screens, but was upstaged by The Mask which grossing $4.4m in its second week at 142 screens. After 12 days, The Specialist had grossed $5.7m on 128 screens after which point I don't know how well it performed.

Seems pretty good if this happened nowadays. A $5.7m gross after 12 days would mean over $12m considering how leggy the Japanese market is.

Where did you find opening weekend/first week data on those films?

Most films today achieve around a 2.3 multiplier (though it can vary greatly) from their 9/10-day total, so $12 million finish sounds about right after a $5.7 million 12-day total. Since it didn't earn more than ¥1 billion in distribution revenue or at the box-office, no final total was recorded.

It's hard to say how leggy the market was before 1998 but since legs from 1998/1999 are still comparable to those of today, it's probably a fair assumption that legs in the early/mid 90s were still mostly the same, too.

I haven't provided any updates in days, not having much time to do them, so here is some weekend news:

Noah finally made it to Japan this weekend, and its ticket sales for the weekend have been pretty robust. It's expected to open with at least ¥300 million (~$3 million) or a bit higher. I'd go as far as calling an opening over ¥300 million a surprise or even approaching breakout territory. It would have a shot at hitting ¥2 billion ($20 million) then, which would trail only Brazil and Russia according to BOM. Although, I don't know what it earned in China.

And Frozen continues to play well, but there are noticeable signs of it beginning to slow down. Based on the ticket sales I saw, it may be looking at a 20% drop or thereabout for a 14th-consecutive week atop the box-office (tying Armageddon for 2nd most-consecutive weeks at #1) with ¥450-500 million ($4.5-5 million).

It should then be around ¥23.2 billion ($227/228 million) after 94 days.